The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Sorairo, Feb 20, 2019.

Loading...
  1. Lalli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2010
    Wallace's gift helped Stalin got nuke earlier than he would had got that otherwise. And Poland might not had surrended so easily when USSR wouldn't had nuclear bomb.
     
  2. gurgu proud genoese

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2019
    Location:
    genoa
    what year is now the TL? 1949 or 1950? because i can't wait anymore for 1953 when super mario commie dies in OTl( but here he is even more paranoid/crazy so maybe 1952?)
     
    Alpha-King98760 likes this.
  3. Lalli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2010
    1949. We have alrady seen Patton's inaugration and some of his first acts like sending Americans to China.
     
    gurgu likes this.
  4. Alpha-King98760 Aku's most favorite assassin, babe!

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2015
    Location:
    The future where Aku's evil is law, babe.
    Sorry I just had to.

    Mussolini, Churchill, & de Gaulle when Stalin finally kicks the bucket:

     
  5. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2010
    Location:
    Virginia - near the USA-CSSA Border
    I don't think Patton will be nearly as bad as everyone seems to thinks - more like Eisenhower at home and a war hawk abroad. He will listen to criticism and act when needed, and when the temptation to cross the line comes, I expect him to step back. This isn't MacArthur we're talking about, at the end of the day, Patton will put the country ahead of his own ego.

    It really helps that executive overreach was MUCH less this early on, so there are some limits to what Patton can do even in a worst-case scenario.
     
    TheNerd_, thanix01, Ogrebear and 7 others like this.
  6. Icedaemon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2016
    I can see some people suggest legislation to limit the powers of the president to prevent another fiasco like Wallace. With the weight of the support that Patton has, he can easily allow such legislation to pass given how he is so unlikely to ever see it used against him. At the same time, a career soldier would be more willing to consider the possibility that any successor of his, or a president a few decades down the line, could be just as much of a cockup as Wallace and thus would consider it sensible to support such legislation now when he can.
     
    Ogrebear and Alpha-King98760 like this.
  7. lukedalton Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2009
    Location:
    North Italy
    The bomb at the time were not the megaubermegaton affair that we know now, they were more 'limited'; frankly a conventional bombing or use of chemical weapon will have done the same result, even with more time or less showy.

    The problem are twofold with Patton

    - Foreging policy: there is being an hawk and there is (like Patton) drive right through WWIII smiling and even if the rest of the goverment keep him in check, well there are two in this tango and whoever is in charge on the URSS will think that maybe launching a first strike is the only change as the US president seem hellbent on war. Not considering that rising the tension will also mean increase the possibility that an incident grow beyond control and during this years in OTL there were plenty
    - Domestic policy: not considering the repercussion on the civil right movement in general, the entire affair with Wallace and the Democrats has done much more damage than anything Stalin had in mind to the democratic institution of the nation; sure Patton will step down, but the three branch of the goverment will be a Republican/Freedom party monopoly for years meaning that who care's who's president they can do whatever they want and changes the rule if they are not allowed and if you become too noisy, well you are surely a commie and the FBI need to talk to you or if you are lucky a nice beating by this patriotic guys will make you see the light. Patton doesn't seem the guy that really understand the consequence of what happened to Wallace, the whole trial and the frequent use of violence from 'his supporter'...IMVHO if Wallace was just a very naive individual surrounded by soviet agent, what as done to get rid of him will cause much more problem in the long term.
     
  8. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2010
    Location:
    Virginia - near the USA-CSSA Border
    Wallace literally handed the nuclear bomb to Joe Stalin's USSR, on top of giving them the portion of Germany that American soldiers fought and bled for. He may not have been on the Soviet payroll, but he was enough of a moron that he never needed to be - a useful idiot through and through.

    As for Civil Rights, Patton had some... interesting racial views. While a Virginian, he opposed segregation, and especially the segregation of the military - something the performance of Patton's Panthers completely cemented. I very easily see him desegregating the military, and supporting some early measures of Civil Rights reform - if only as a way to ensure the Communists don't use it as something to use against us. "I don't care if an American is white or black, so long as his politics aren't red."
     
  9. lukedalton Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2009
    Location:
    North Italy
    The thing is that Stalin hardly needed that, sure it help but at this stage had not seriously changed the timeline of the project and frankly the fact that he doesn't control all eastern europe and their resources (uranium included) is a much more important factor in the developement of the Soviet bomb (realistically, without Czech, German, Bulgarian and with limited access to Polish uranium, unless the soviet are lucky and find the error in their geological reserch immediately, they can have all the note of the world but they will hardly cut so much time)


    While a desegregation of the military can happen due to sheer number necessity as OTL, i doubt that Patton capacity to start some meaningfull civil rights reform, the man can be the best general of the world...but on the political side he is a newcomer and frankly he really doesn't have the needed experience or neither the teamwork capacity. Basically he is more or less at Trump level capacity, frankly the congress and his cabinet will be the people that will real run the things; but as i said, the real damage is not Patton but how he had come to power.
     
  10. WaterproofPotatoes #TeamMahan

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2018
    Patton was also a notorious anti-Semite OTL... has there been anything that would change that TTL?
     
    The Undead Martyr and Ferd42 like this.
  11. nemo1986 Member of Red Sox Nation

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2006
    Location:
    Boston
    Well considering a lot of Jews are now openly fascists I can see Antisemitism remaining main stream for a while.
     
  12. The Undead Martyr GOP Delenda Est

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Location:
    south of the (Canadian) border
    OTL they got blamed for communism and capitalism (because that makes sense somehow). TTL they get blamed for fascism... jeez, the poor Jews just cant catch a break can they?
     
    TheNerd_, DumbersTC, Kammada and 3 others like this.
  13. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2010
    Location:
    Virginia - near the USA-CSSA Border
    I mean, in OTL liberating the concentration camps changed Patton's views on Jews... kind of like a lot of Americans who fought in the war, seeing the camps, the end road of modern anti-Semitism first hand pretty much killed the more casual anti-Semitism previously present dead. Patton, a man who really deal revel in the more gruesome and bloody parts of modern warfare, was utterly sickened by the Holocaust. He and Omar Bradley were the first ones to liberate Buchenwald and Bergen Belson and Patton was said to be physically sicked by the sight.

    Now, if we want one of Patton's views that was made WORSE rather than better by the war in OTL, likely more so in ITTL, it would be his views on Marxists and Asians.
     
  14. Darth_Kiryan The Númenorean Sith

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2010
    Location:
    AUS
    HAVe Patton's views on African-Americans changed?

    I mean, he didn't like them, but didn't he have that tank brigade that was all African-Americans that he thought were the best tank brigade in his army?
     
    Alpha-King98760 likes this.
  15. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2010
    Location:
    Virginia - near the USA-CSSA Border
    Yes, I actually cited that earlier in the thread - even before the Panthers, his private feelings aside, Patton was against segregation, and like most of the brass, agaisnt the segregation of the military.

    The Panthers just kind of made it way easier for him.

    Read the book Kareem Abdul Jabbar (yes the former LA Laker) wrote about the unit, great read.
     
  16. Herr Frage Jesus Christ Is In Heaven

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Location:
    Behind a black gate and to the left of a grove
    Honestly while I think Wallace was treated unfairly despite his choices and mistakes; I think the USA will benefit from a precedent of the POTUS being held to such scrutiny and punishment. The highest office being so untouchable I expect is one reason executive overreach became such a problem and accepted to such a degree OTL.

    If Patton is a success in the people's eyes it will vindicate his shift in policy. While if he ends up a failure it will reinforce the Presidency should not be granted too sweeping of powers. So I think the ball is well rolling on a rollback of the president's authority.

    I will be interested to see if Patton runs for a second term. If things are going well he may decide he can go off into the sunset and give the ob he hates to someone who can better do it. And if things are going poorly, he may agree in private if nowhere else that he is a sqaure peg in a round hole; with enough force you can jam it in there, but it will never be a good fit.
     
  17. Darth_Kiryan The Númenorean Sith

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2010
    Location:
    AUS
    Probably why I remember it...

    Ta.
     
  18. gurgu proud genoese

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2019
    Location:
    genoa
    TY, it's not easy to keep track of the year... also i'm reading other TL's so it's getting a bit chaotic in my head
     
  19. Threadmarks: Intermission - Black Gold

    RyuDrago Italian? Yes, but also Roman

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2010
    Location:
    Italy
    Hello to all, here is the promised ATL rise of ENI, as usual with revisions and additions from Sorairo. Enjoy!

    ‘The Six-Legged Dog Will Roar: the Rise of the ENI’ by Ernesto Gandolfini


    Few know the definitive establishment of Italian Fascism was caused by a political incident over oil extraction – the Sinclair Scandal of 1924. In short, it was discovered that the government favoured an agreement with the American oil company Sinclair about extremely advantageous concessions in Italian soil, not only unfavourable to the Italian nation but violating the current laws too. Giacomo Matteotti was intended to denounce the scandal on the 12th June – he was assassinated two days before. Everyone knows how that story would eventually end.

    When Fascism won in Italy, the regime saw fit to revise the entire Italian Energy policy, based essentially on total self-dependence of coal and oil. For this, in 1926 the AGIP (Azienda Generale Italiana Petroli) was founded, de jure a private company, de facto a state owned one, with the ability to control production and trade of oil in Italian soil. AGIP was established by the will of Giuseppe Volpi, the Minister of Economy at the time, supported by car producer FIAT and growing interests in Romania, another European country rich in oil. The fellow nation therefore came of early interest to the company.

    AGIP didn’t have a brilliant start – despite being aided by a 1927 law where the government took exclusive right in conceding concessions and excavation permits in Italian soil, they had still to face competition by far older and stronger foreign oil companies. Then in 1929 what little was gained was lost in the Great Depression.

    But in the early 30’s, AGIP, through the more capable though brief leadership of Alessandro Martelli being also a former Economic Minister, started to grow for real. In 1933, the government decreed that AGIP had monopoly in oil processing of the first small (and not very deep oil) sources found in Italy. But where the company would focus more, was attempting to develop better and synthetic oil through a joint venture with chemical company Montecatini: the ANIC. It wasn’t mere autarchic policy – the AGIP, and through it the government – started to look for suitable oil depots in Italian soil. Even attempts to extract oil in Albania failed miserably.

    But in those years AGIP would also start to invest over seismic reflection geysers, becoming the first oil company in Europe to get such advanced devices. Those new instruments worked greatly. As suspected since long ago, the Padan Plain was rich of energetic resources: not oil however, but natural gas. Finally, towards the end of the 30’s renown explorer Ardito Desio found track of the first, extensive, and huge oil fields in Libya. What was once called the “Italian empty sandbox” suddenly became a treasure chest just waiting to be brought to light. There was an issue however: such oilfields were quite deep and AGIP didn’t have the technology to extract it properly at the time. However in 1939 “Operation Petrolibia” began through financial support from FIAT, still present enough in AGIP’s life to make a second joint-venture (later incorporated into ANIC) focused on synthetic oil. Despite the harshest phase of autarchy ending with the reforming of the Stresa Front alongside Britain and France lifting the embargo against Italy, between the war in Ethiopia, invasion of Albania, and the gear up for a greater conflict, the AGIP saw its funds cut, hence halting serious plans in Libya.

    The government would up AGIP funding in the early 40’s, as Operation Petrolibia benefitted as part of a set of investments in the colony during the Jewish Escape to Lybia. Also helped by improving infrastructure and new equipment was bought in America, the oil company hired many Jewish engineers and chemists in order to boost its efforts on the operation, which would finally start to pay dividends by 1945. But AGIP was definitely in business in Libya. It would soon face issues in Romania, acquiring Prahova, the third largest Romanian oil company, therefore giving solid access to the rich oilfields of the country. The Italian presence irked the Germans, salivating over the Romanian oil as well, but also the Americans, where they had control over half of the local oil industry.

    In AGIP (but above all during the early ENI age) there was awareness about the consortium of seven Anglo-American oil companies (the so called “Seven Sisters”): five Americans (the future named Esso, Texaco, Mobil, Chevron and Gulf Oil), one British (Anglo-Persian oil company, future British Petroleum) and a British-Dutch joint venture (Royal Dutch Shell). Dominating the oil market since then, such consortium would soon start to see with growing hostility the rise of a potential eighth player; however, with the progression of the war and the growing divergences between Americans and Europeans towards the Soviet Union, this corporate alliance would break as Churchill agreed a detente between British companies and AGIP, which would soon grow to become the pipeline of the entire Roman Alliance (and Israel as well).

    With respect to the Prahova issue, the Germans failed in ousting AGIP from Romania, a nation that despite aligning with the Nazis didn’t want a total rupture with the Italians. Besides, the Romanians were more than satisfied to seize the assets of the American oil companies when ending up at war with the US; there wasn’t a necessity from their point of view to nationalize Prahova as well.

    However, when Germany declared war on Italy, one of the first orders from Berlin towards Bucharest was to seize all Prahova properties – but the Romanians hesitated as they found themselves at war with a belligerant Bulgaria with the Danube all exposed to an invasion while their army was struggling in the Soviet Union. Besides whatever action taken at the time would have been in vain – after a few weeks, the Bulgarians flooded the Ploesti oil fields and Dobrujia. An AGIP team was hastily sent to repair the damage done by German raids, and start soon as possible restarted the local production.

    The issue of the Romanian oilfields was an issue in the Kiev Conference. The Italian delegation asked that Romania should pay part of compensation to the Roman Alliance in oil, hence AGIP, through Prahova, which would control the clear majority of the Romanian oil fields. They also stated that the German would pay for the damages during their retreat. The Soviets weren’t happy about the proposal and above all not the Americans, which saw in the Italian proposal a reduction of their oil companies power in Romania. But it was also noticed, with Bulgaria and Turkey being allies of Italy, access to Romania would have been more difficult for the Americans. The British were instead more supportive, considering the Italian proposal fair and also preferring that Romanian oil be controlled by AGIP rather than American companies which may sell to the Soviets.

    In the end, also in lieu of the general agreements over Romania (neutrality, and loss of Bessarabia and Dobrujia) it was agreed that AGIP through Prahova could retain what they had and control half of the remnant oil resources of Romania for the 10 years from the end of the war to be then returned to Romania. The American companies regain their rightful other half. When the time expired, ENI bought the granted share, the American government instead to win favours from the Romanians would press its own companies to sell back rights and properties to Bucharest. With those, Romania established its own state oil company. It was nothing major, but enough for the Romanians to be self-reliant and make some profits (like selling their surplus during the oil crisis across Europe during the Second Arabian War).

    In 1945, AGIP was becoming, between new discoveries of gas in Italy, control of Prahova, and above all the slow but constant extraction of Libyan oil, a major player in the oil market. It therefore needed to adjust and reform its administration. However, the position of president of the AGIP – which saw various changes in the last ten years – was one which started to become very appealing in the Italian administration dragging the interests of the main gerarchs, salivating around Mussolini to propose their own candidate. Also there was FIAT, which tried to meddle as well, giving the support given to AGIP so far.

    The 28th April of 1945, it was decided to suggest a compromise candidate – a certain Enrico Mattei, owner of a chemical company which obtained a fair success before and during the war as major supplier of the armed forces, not tied with the major gerarchs (above all Ciano and Balbo), loyal enough to Fascist cause (though OVRA kept watch on him due to his sympathies to the Christian Democrats). Mattei was supposed to last for only few months, but his activity would soon prove to be so energetic and effective, he would stand in that position for decades –becoming one of the most powerful men of Italy.

    Mattei would manage to establish the foundation of a full network (extraction and distribution) of Italian natural gas in the Padan valley in less than two years, creating a team motivated and capable, and expanding the operations in Libya. It came through patient work, negotiation and diplomacy with several Libyan tribes in the interior (many still barely accepting of Italian rule), offering jobs, basic school preparation paid by AGIP, houses, all in exchange to let the company to drill across their lands. Balbo would even venture to say; “I wish I did in all my years in Libya what Mattei could do in an afternoon. Without him, maybe we would have ended up like Algeria.” The ties Mattei established with those tribes was so strong and effective to the modern day that ENI’s armed guard core is exclusively formed by South-Eastern Libyans – not counting the number of Libyan engineers and chemists and even administrators in the company.

    But Mattei went even further ahead by establishing a new (and also innovative) national network of AGIP oil pumps, in major national roads as in the blooming motorway network as well. Between 1951 and 1952, he was able to present the reform of the company as an effective state agency and Mega-Corporation ready to compete with the Americans. After a brief competition, he presented a new brand which Mussolini approved immediately: a black dog with six legs, of Roman inspiration, releasing a fire breath, on a yellow background. Only one detail was changed from the original design. Instead to look ahead, the dog’s head would be turned behind. Mattei managed to convince the Duce that the logo shouldn’t show an aggressive face but rather a more reassuring one, hence the turned head. The state oil company could win the competition with the Americans by offering honest cooperation with oil producer states, unlike the “Seven Sisters”. Mattei would prove right, as proven by Italy’s string of stunning geopolitical successes in the late fifties, in the realm of the energy market especially.

    The 10th February 1952, the AGIP was incorporated into the ENI (Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi). With Mattei at the head, the Italian state oil company would take this market (and the gas one, as well) by storm. He didn’t have to wait long to encounter the opportunity that wouldn’t just elevate ENI to the top of food-chain, but make Italy the definitive Third Power on the planet.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
  20. traveller76 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2006
    Location:
    Fort Worth, TX
    I would think ENI would be a big player in the colonial and developing world as a competitor to the Americans and British companies.
     
Loading...