A Gallup Poll in June 1945 showed the voting intention for the Liberal Party as 15%. (1). In this TL the Liberal vote in the July 1945 general election is just below this at 14.4% compared to 8.9% in OTL. The book The British Voter: An Atlas ànd Survey since 1885 by Michael Kinnear, London: B.T. Batsford Ltd, 1968, states that in the 1945 general election: "Twelve of the 14 areas which had Liberal votes exceeding 20% in 1945 also had below-average swings to Labour, while the remaining two had only average swings to Labour. (2) Possibly the Liberal Party acted in 1945 as a sort of safety-valve, which attracted Conservative protest voters who did wish to go all the way to Labour. "
I have assumed that compared to OTL the Liberal increase in vote is taken 60% from Labour and 40% from Conservative. So the Labour vote is down by 3.3% and the Conservative vote down by 2.2%. Therefore very marginal Labour seats in OTL with Liberal candidates, are Conservative in this TL.
There were 402 Liberal candidates standing in the general election compared to 306 in OTL. So the Liberal Party claimed that they could form a government if enough of their candidates were elected.
The number of seats in the House of Commons won by each party in the general election were as follows (OTL general election):
Labour: 385 (394)
Conservative and allies: 207 (211)
Liberal: 25 (12)
Independent Labour: 4 (4)
Communist: 2 (2)
Irish Nationalist: 2 (2)
Commonwealth: 1 (1)
Independents : 14 (14).
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Total: 640 (640)
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Compared to OTL the Liberal gains were twelve seats from Conservative and one from Labour. Conservative gains were eight seats from Labour.
The percentage votes were as follows:
Labour: 44.9 (48.2)
Conservative and allies: 37.5 (39.7)
Liberal: 14.4 (8.9)
Other parties and Independents: 3.2 (3.2).
I have taken the OTL figures for seats and votes from Kinnear cited above.
Compared with OTL the Liberals gained those constituencies in which they were within 10% of the winning candidate.
(1) See British Political Facts 1900-1967 , by David Butler and Jennie Freeman, London: Macmilan, 1968.
(2) "The areas are those defined in R.B. McCallum and A. Readman, The British General Election of 1945 ."
I have assumed that compared to OTL the Liberal increase in vote is taken 60% from Labour and 40% from Conservative. So the Labour vote is down by 3.3% and the Conservative vote down by 2.2%. Therefore very marginal Labour seats in OTL with Liberal candidates, are Conservative in this TL.
There were 402 Liberal candidates standing in the general election compared to 306 in OTL. So the Liberal Party claimed that they could form a government if enough of their candidates were elected.
The number of seats in the House of Commons won by each party in the general election were as follows (OTL general election):
Labour: 385 (394)
Conservative and allies: 207 (211)
Liberal: 25 (12)
Independent Labour: 4 (4)
Communist: 2 (2)
Irish Nationalist: 2 (2)
Commonwealth: 1 (1)
Independents : 14 (14).
----------------------
Total: 640 (640)
-----------------------
Compared to OTL the Liberal gains were twelve seats from Conservative and one from Labour. Conservative gains were eight seats from Labour.
The percentage votes were as follows:
Labour: 44.9 (48.2)
Conservative and allies: 37.5 (39.7)
Liberal: 14.4 (8.9)
Other parties and Independents: 3.2 (3.2).
I have taken the OTL figures for seats and votes from Kinnear cited above.
Compared with OTL the Liberals gained those constituencies in which they were within 10% of the winning candidate.
(1) See British Political Facts 1900-1967 , by David Butler and Jennie Freeman, London: Macmilan, 1968.
(2) "The areas are those defined in R.B. McCallum and A. Readman, The British General Election of 1945 ."
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