The flame of British Liberalism burns steady and brighter: A timeline from 1945

[pipisme]

In early July 1953, Attlee made major changes in his government. These were as follows:
The ministry of Local Government and Planning was abolished, and the minister, Hugh Dalton, retired to the backbenches. A new ministry of Housing and Local Government was created and Aneurin Bevan returned to the cabinet as minister. Emmanuel Shinwell resigned as Minister of Defence and was replaced by Harold Wilson. James Chuter Ede moved from Home Secretary to Lord Privy Seal, and continued as Leader of the House of Commons. Richard Stokes from Lord Privy Seal to Home Secretary.

James Griffiths promoted from Minister of National Insurance to Colonial Secretary in place of Arthur Creech Jones who resigned. The ministries of Pensions and of National Insurance were combined, and Fred Willey appointed minister outside the cabinet. The Minister of Pensions, George Isaacs, retired from government. Ness Edwards promoted from Post-Master General to Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries in place of Tom Williams, who resigned. John Freeman returned to government as Post-Master General.

Outside the cabinet, Alfred Barnes resigned as Minister of Transport. His place was taken by the Minister of Works, George Brown, James Callaghan was promoted from Parliamentary and Financial Secretary Admiralty to Minister of Works. He was replaced at the Admiralty by Fred Mulley. Ashley Bramall, who had defeated Edward Heath at Bexley in the 1950 general election, joined the government as Parliamentary Secretary Ministry of Housing and Local Government.

 

[David T]

A Gallup Poll in June 1945 showed the voting intention for the Liberal Party as 15%. (1). In this TL the Liberal vote in the July 1945 general election is just below this at 14.4% compared to 8.9% in OTL.

If you're going to have the Liberals do so much better than in OTL--get over 50% more votes--I think you should give some reason for it. It's not enough to say that it's close to what the Gallup Poll predicted. The Gallup Poll was wrong about the Liberals in OTL, and something has to happen to make them right. But you never specify what that "something" is.

 

[pipisme]

If you're going to have the Liberals do so much better than in OTL--get over 50% more votes--I think you should give some reason for it. It's not enough to say that it's close to what the Gallup Poll predicted. The Gallup Poll was wrong about the Liberals in OTL, and something has to happen to make them right. But you never specify what that "something" is.

In June 1945, "some newspapers anticipated that the Liberals would almost double their number of MPs and hold the balance of power in the post-election Parliament." (1)

In the three weeks between polling day and the counting of votes in July 1945, "Liberal Party headquarters announced that they anticipated winning between 80 and
100 seats. This immense optimism was based upon the perception, picked up by Mass Observation surveys, that there was a degree of popular good will directed at the Liberal Party." (2)

In this TL the Liberals partially met some of the above expectations. This was because they gave more prominence to Beveridge in the election campaign, they contested about a hundred more constituencies which meant that they could be regarded as serious contenders for power. (3) Also they won the support of voters who wavered betweem them and Conservative or Labour in OTL.

(1) See the book Peace, Reform and Liberation: A History of Liberal Politics in Britain 1679-2011 edited by Robert Ingham and Duncan Brack, London: Biteback Publishing Ltd, 2011.

( 2) See the Liberal Democrat History Group Newsletter 9 (December 1995). My tablet does not give the full URL for that newsletter.

(3) "In contesting just 306 seats, less than half the total, the Liberals could not be regarded as serious contenders for power." See Ingham and Brack.

 

[pipisme]

Further to my previous post here are articles from Liberal Democrat History Group Newsletters on the 1945 general election: http://liberalhistory.org.uk/themes/elections/1945-general-election.

 

[stodge]

I think the Ilford North by-election in early February 1954 might be of interest to you.

As an aside, both Robin Day and Ludovic Kennedy were active Liberals in the 1950s - they both (with others) got Grimond interested in using the new medium of television. Whether that would work with Sinclair I'm less certain. I'd also mention Emlyn Hooson from the Welsh Liberal Party and John Bannerman in Scotland as part of the new generation of Liberals.

 

[pipisme]

I think the Ilford North by-election in early February 1954 might be of interest to you.

As an aside, both Robin Day and Ludovic Kennedy were active Liberals in the 1950s - they both (with others) got Grimond interested in using the new medium of television. Whether that would work with Sinclair I'm less certain. I'd also mention Emlyn Hooson from the Welsh Liberal Party and John Bannerman in Scotland as part of the new generation of Liberals.

Thank you for your tips. Robin Day, Ludovic Kennedy, Emlyn Hooson and John Bannerman will be appearing in this timeline. However in OTL the Ilford North by-election on 3 February 1954 was caused by the appointment of Geoffrey Hutchinson, the Conservative MP for the constituency, as Chairman of the National Assistance Board. In this TL a Labour MP for a safe seat was appointed Chairman.

Edward Heath took Holborn and St. Pancras South from Labour in the by- election on 19 November 1953. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows (1950 general election):
Edward Heath (Conservative): 43.8 (41.2)
Lena Jeger (Labour): 40.3 (45.0)
Liberal candidate: 15.9 (13.8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Conservative majority: 3.5 % (Labour majority: 3.8% )
---‐--------------------‐--------------------------------------------
The swing from Labour to Conservative was 3.65%.

In this TL the British government did not establish the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland because the proposed federation was rejected by large majorities in referenda in Northern Rhodesia, Nyasaland, and Southern Rhodesia.

 

[pipisme]

1954 could be a general election year in the UK, but that would depend on when the final recommendations of the Boundary Commissioners are published. Under the provisions of the House of Commons (Redistribution of Seats) Act 1949, there must be a redistrubution of seats between three and seven years after the previous one. That was in 1947, so the next one must be in 1954.

"The Boundary Commissioners were slow in starting their first periodic revision in 1953 and the changes they proposed were carried through in a rushed and controversial manner. During 1954 their provisional recommendations aroused a fair amount of comment as they emerged one by one and a number of local inquiries were held to satisfy objectors." (1)

As the months passed it looked increasingly likely that the general election would be in January or February 1955, more likely February. But it must be before 1 March 1955, which was five years after Parliament assembled following the 1950 general election.

.The issue of German rearmament, or rather a German contribution to the proposed European Defence Community (EDC) divided the cabinet. Gaitskell and Morrison were in favour, while Bevan and Wilson were against. Attlee was in favour in principle, but not before efforts had been made to secure the peaceful reunification of Germany.

The Berlin conference in early February 1954, broke down because the Soviet Union rejected the demand of the Western allies that a united Germany should be free to join any alliance it chose, which would have meant N.A.T.O. At its meeting immediately after the conference, the cabinet decided in favour of a German contribution to the EDC.

(1) This was as in OTL. Quotation taken from the book The Electoral System in Britain since 1918 by D.E. Butler, Oxford University Press, 1963.

 

[pipisme]

The Clean Air Act 1953 provided for the control of smoke from factories and domestic
fires in towns and cities. Also in 1953 sweets were taken off rationing.

The Liberals did moderately well in by-elections in several safe Conservative constituencies betweem February and September 1954. They polled 22.0% in Hull- Haltemprice on 11 February, 27.1% and second place in Bournemouth West on 18 February, 25.1% and second place in Arundel and Shoreham on 9 March, 20.9% in Croydon East on 30 September. In these constituencies the Liberal vote increased by between 2 and 5 percent.

The by-election in Wakefield caused by the death of Arthur Greenwood was held on 21 October 1954. It was won by Muriel Nicol for Labour, but her majority over Conservative fell from 22.2% to 5.4%. The Liberal vote rose from 18.4% to 20.1%. Nicol was Labour MP for Bradford North from 1945 to 1950, when she lost it to the Tories.

 

[pipisme]

The continuation of food rationing was a major political issue. The Tories and Liberals accused the Labour government of keeping rationing for ideological reasons. It was not until the middle of October 1954 that butter rationing ended. About six weeks later, in early December, meat stopped being rationed. (1) This marked the end of rationing.

The Boundary Commissioners published their recommendations in December 1954, and the Statutory Orders giving effect to the changes came before Parliament. They were approved, though in the debates there was unanimous agreement that redistribution had taken place too soon.

There was considerable speculation as to whether the Conservative Chief Whip, Patrick Buchan-Hepburn, would move the writ for the by-election in Inverness caused by the resignation of Lord Malcolm Douglas-Hamilton. With a general election expected on 24 February 1955, if there were a by-election it would be only two months before the general election. However in 1929 there were three by-elections on 21 March and the general election on 30 May, and in 1945 the Newport by-election was on 17 May and the general election on 5 July. If Buchan-Hepburn did not move the writ it would look like the Conservatives were running away from an election in which there was a strong Liberal challenge. He decided to move the writ and the by-election was held on 21 December. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows (1950 general election):
John Bannerman (Liberal): 42.4 (n/a)
Neil McLean (Conservative); 41.2 (64.5)
William Patterson (Labour): 16,4 (35.5)
-------------------------------------------------
Liberal majority: 1.2% (Conservative majority: 29.0%)
-------------------------------------------------
Bannerman was a top ranking rugby player having played for Scotland in international matches, and a Scottish Gaelic speaker. He campaigned on Home Rule for Scotland and old age pensions.

No one was surprised when Attlee announced in a statement in the House of Commons on Tuesday 18 January 1955, that a general election would take place on Thursday 24 February. Parliament would be dissolved on Thursday 3 February, and nominations would close on Monday 14 February.

(1) In OTL butter rationing ended in May 1954, and meat rationing in July 1954.

 

[pipisme]

In the election campaign, the Labour Party on the record of the government over the previous five years. The legislation passed included the following: Nationalisation of beet sugar manufacture and sugar refining, and the cement industry; establishment of a Development Council for ship building and ship repairing; farm workers living in tied cottages were given security of tenure; more wholesale and retail markets brought under municipal ownership; the right to open a shop was extended to anyone who wanted to, subject to the needs of town planning; establishment of an independent Consumer Advice Centre; ownership of the Industrial Assurance Companies was transferred from private shareholders to the policyholders: establishment of a Holidays Council to promote holiday centres with reasonably priced family accomodation; leaseholders were given the right to buy the freehold of their home or shop. (1) Also the basic rate of income tax was reduced from nine shillings in the pound to eight shillings and sixpence.

(1) These measures are taken from the Labour Party manifesto for the 1950 general election. See http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1950/1950-labour-manifesto.shtml

 

[pipisme]

Douglas Clifton Brown (Conservative) stood down as Speaker of the House of Commons on 31 October 1951. The Chairman of Ways and Means, James Milner (Leeds South-East Labour) became Speaker the following day. In OTL William Morrison (Conservative) became Speaker and Milner was made an hereditary peer in compensation. In the Leeds South-East by-election in February 1952, Denis Healey w as elected Labour MP for the constituency. In this TL Healey was elected MP for Cleveland in the by-election on 23 October 1952. This was a considerably more marginal seat than Leeds South-East, and in OTL was Tory from 1959 to 1964.

Winston Churchill retired from the leadership of the Conservative Party on 1 December 1954, the day after his 80th birthday. As everyone expected, the heir apparent, Sir Anthony Eden, became leader.

The Liberal Party manifesto for the general election on 24 February 1955 was much the same as that for the OTL May 1955 general election. (1). However as in this TL there were 529 Liberal candidates, compared to 110 in OTL, the manifesto paid lip service to a Liberal government being elected, though no one expected that to happen.

(1) See http://www.libdemmanifesto.com/1955/1955-liberal-manifesto.shtml.

 

[pipisme]

William Beveridge did not stand for re-election as Liberal MP for Berwick-on-Tweed.

In the general election campaign, the Tories and Liberals raised the spectre of Aneurin
Bevan becoming Prime Minister when Attlee retired, if Labour won the election. They also attacked Labour, and Bevan in particular, over what they called the failure of its housing policy. Bevan was responsible for Housing from August 1945 to January 1951, and from July 1953. Between 1945 and 1954, the maximum number of permanent dwellings built in one year was 258,517 in 1954. The Tories promised to bulld at least 300,000 houses a year.

On election night, the Tories gained seats from Labour, but the number was fairly small, and they lost a few seats to Liberal. It was not until early afternoon on 25 February 1954, , that the Conservative total reached 316 and a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The number of seats won by each party was as follows (1950 general election):
Conservative: 319 (284)
Labour: 288 (322)
Liberal: 21 (17)
Irish Nationalist: 2 (2)
---------------------
Total: 630 (625)
---------------------
Sir Anthony Eden became Prime Minister at the head of a Conservative government. Because the Speaker, James Milner, was a Labour MP, the Conservative majority was nine over all parties

 

[sarahz]

William Beveridge did not stand for re-election as Liberal MP for Berwick-on-Tweed.

In the general election campaign, the Tories and Liberals raised the spectre of Aneurin
Bevan becoming Prime Minister when Attlee retired, if Labour won the election. They also attacked Labour, and Bevan in particular, over what they called the failure of its housing policy. Bevan was responsible for Housing from August 1945 to January 1951, and from July 1953. Between 1945 and 1954, the maximum number of permanent dwellings built in one year was 258,517 in 1954. The Tories promised to bulld at least 300,000 houses a year.

On election night, the Tories gained seats from Labour, but the number was fairly small, and they lost a few seats to Liberal. It was not until early afternoon on 25 February 1954, , that the Conservative total reached 316 and a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The number of seats won by each party was as follows (1950 general election):
Conservative: 318 (284)
Labour: 289 (322)
Liberal: 21 (17)
Irish Nationalist: 2 (2)
---------------------
Total: 630 (625)
---------------------
Sir Anthony Eden became Prime Minister at the head of a Conservative government.
Because the Speaker, James Milner, was a Labour MP, the Conservative majority was seven over all parties

hmm so a handful of by elections in the right place and no majority. Also on those figures the actual Conservative majority only exists because of the Northern Irish Unionists being part of the Conservative party (sort of)

 

[pipisme]

The percentage votes for each party in the general election were as follows (1950 general election:
Conservative: 41.0 (39.2)
Labour; 40.5 (42.6)
Liberal: 17.2 (16.8)
Others and Independents: 1.3 (1,4)
--------------------------
Total: 100.0 (100.0)
----------------
The turnout was 80.6% (83.9%).

The Conservatives gained 32 seats from Labour compared with the 1950 general election, as follows (*major boundary change): Barry, Bexley. Bromsgrove, Buckingham, *Chislehurst, Clapham, Conway, Dulwich, Doncaster, *Glasgow Scotstoun, Huyton, King's Lynn, *Leeds North-East, *Liverpool Kirkdale, Manchester Blackley, Norfolk South-West, *Nottingham South, Oldham East. Peterborough, *Plymouth Sutton, Preston South, Rutherglen, Shipley, *Southampton Test, Sunderland South, Walthamstow East, Watford, The Wrekin, Woolwich West, Wycombe, Yarmouth, York. Seven constituencies had major boundary changes.

The three Labour gains from Conservative were *Bristol North-West, *Glasgow Govan, *Romford. Liberal gains from Conservative were Bedfordshire Mid, Bridlington, Inverness; and from Labour were Berwick and East Lothian, and Bolton West (pact with the Tories). Bodmin was a Conservative gain from Liberal.

Eight Tory held seats were abolished, but they won sixteen new seats.
Twenty-one Labour held constituencies were abolished, but they won eighteen new seats. One Liberal held seat was abolished, but they won one new seat.

In summary the gains and losses for each party compared with 1950, were as follows: Conservative: 49 gains and 14 losses, net gains 35. Labour: 55 losses and 21 losses, net losses, 34. LIberal: 6 gains and 2 losses, net gains 4. Lena Jeger won back Holborn and St. Pancras South for Labour, defeating Edward Heath, which she had lost in a by-election in November 1953. But it is not counted in the Labour gains listed above.

The following Labour ministers were defeated: Harold Wilson, Minister of Defence (Huyton), John Freeman, Postmaster-General (Watford), Ashley Bramall, Parliamentary Secretary, Ministry of Housing and Local Government (Bexley), Anthony Crosland, Parliamentary Secretary Ministry of Food. Wilson was the only cabinet minister defeated. Crosland had been MP for Gloucestershire South, but because he thought that boundary changes would make that constituency marginal, he stood in Southampton Test, which he lost. Arthur Creech Jones who was Colonial Secretary from October 1946 to July 1953, lost Shipley.:

 

[pipisme]

If the redistribution of seats in 1954 had not happened and the election had been fought on the 1950 constituencies, I estimate that the number of seats won by each party would be as follows:
Conservative: 307 seats
Labour: 295 seats
Liberal 21 seats
Irish Nationalist: 2 seats
---------------------
Total: 625 seats
----------------------
So the Conservatives would be the largest party, but fall short

I have taken the difference between the seats abolished and new seats won by
Conservative and by Labour, and the difference between the seats gained by Conservative and those gained by Labour with major boundary changes. See my previous post.

In a way the Liberals were relieved that there was not a hung parliament. If there had been they would have had to choose whether to support the Tories or Labour, which would have exposed the differences between its left and right wings.

 

[pipisme]

Here is the cabinet appointed by Sir Anthony Eden on 25 and 26 February 1955:
Prime Minister: Sir Anthony Eden
Lord Chancellor: Lord Somervell
Lord President of the Council: Marquess of Salisbury
Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Commons: Harry Crookshank
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Richard Austen Butler
Foreign Secretary: Earl of Home
Home Secretary and Minister of Welsh Affairs: Sir David Maxwell Fyfe
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Gwilym Lloyd-George
Colonial Secretary: Alan Lennox-Boyd
Commonwealth Relations Secretary: Sir Walter Monckton
Minister of Defence: Harold Macmillan
MInister of Eduvation: John Maclay
Minister of Housing and Local Government: Duncan Sandys
Minister of Labour and National Service: Iain Macleod
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Earl of Selkirk
Minister of Pensions and National Insurance: Peter Thorneycroft
Secretary of State for Scotland: James Stuart
President of the Board of Trade: Osbert Peake.
Eden abolished the Ministry of Food and merged it with the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries. The post of Minister of Welsh Affairs was a new one.

Ministers outside the cabinet, appointed 27 February and I March, were:
First Lord of the Admiralty: James Thomas
Secretary of State for Air: Viscount Hailsham
Minister of Fuel and Power: Geoffrey Lloyd
Minister of Health: Miss Florence Horsbrough
Paymaster-General: Lord Woolton
Postmaster-General: Thomas Galbraith
Minister of Supply: Selwyn Lloyd
Minister of Transport: David Eccles
Secretary of State for War: Anthony Head
Minister of Works: Nigel Birch.
Law Officers:
Attorney-General: Sir Reginald Manningham-Buller
Solicitor-General: Sir William Milligan.

Among the junior ministers were the following:
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Reginald Maudling
Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Government Chief Whip): Patrick Buchan-Hepburn
Minister of State Foreign Office: Harry Hopkinson.

 

[pipisme]

There was much speculation as to whether the Bevanites or the Gaitskellites in the Labour Party had done worse in the general election. The Bevanites John Freeman and Harold Wilson had lost their seats, but Bevan himself, Jennie Lee, Barbara Castle and Michael Foot were all re-elected.

The Gaitskellites Anthony Crosland, Jack Diamond and Ray Gunter all lost their seats.

 

[pipisme]

Among the Gaitskellites who were re-elected were Gaitskell himself and Roy Jenkins. In the absence of Harold Wilson, Kenneth Younger was elected to the shadow cabinet, (1)

In the first meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, Attlee said that he was willing to accept nomination as leader for a further term, but because of public speculation on the matter, he was entirely in the Party's hands and would do what they wanted. Bevan said that Attlee should stay and set no time limit on the period he would serve as leader. This suggestion was met with enthusiastic approval. However there was a plan by 'the extreme anti-Bevanites' as the Manchester Guardian called them, to push Attlee out and put Morrison in with not much delay. (2)

(1) In OTL, Younger was the runner up in the shadow cabinet election in June 1955.

(2) The events in this paragraph were as in OTL after the 1955 general election. I have taken the information from the book Aneurin Bevan: 1945 - 1960 by Michael Foot, London: Granada Publishing Ltd, 1975.

 

[pipisme]

In October 1955 because of a balance of payments crisis the bank rate was raised from 2.5% to 4%. In the budget on 25 October 1955 the standard rate of income tax was increased from 8 shillings and sixpence to 8 shillings and ninepence in the pound. Also for the first time, purchase tax was levied on kitchen utensils.

Harold Wilson was elected Labour MP for Gateshead West in the by-election on 7 December 1955, caused by the death of John Hall on 11 October. The Labour majority over Conservative in a straight fight rose from 33.8% to 36.6%.

The Greenock by-election caused by the Hector McNeil (Labour) on 11 October, was held on 8 December. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows (1955 general election):
Gilbert McAllister (Labour): 48.9 (47.7)
Liberal candidate: 40.4 (38.1)
Conservative candidate: 10.7 (14.2)
---------------------------------
Labour majority: 8.5 (9.6)
---------------------------------
McAllister was Labour MP for Rutherglen from July 1945 to February 1955.

The result of the Torquay by-election on 15 December, caused by the death of Charles Williams (Conservative) on 28 October, was as follows:
Frederick Bennett (Conservative): 40.6% (51.8%)
Peter Bessell (Liberal): 35.7% (28,7%)
Labour candidate: 23.7% (19.5%)
------------------------------------------------
Conservative majority: 4.9% (23.1%)
------------------------------------------------
The swing from Conservative to Liberal was 9.1%.

Sir Anthony Eden made the following changes to his government on 20 December 1955: Rab Butler from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Commons, in place of Harry Crookshank who resigned; Osbert Peake from President of the Board of Trade to Chancellor of the Exchequer; Peter Thorneycroft from Minister of Pensions and National Insurance to President of the Board of Trade: Reginald Maudling from Financial Secretary to the Treasury to Minister of Pensions and National Insurance (outside the cabinet); Henry Brooke joined the government as Financial Secretary to the Treasury.

Attlee did not resign as leader of the Labour Party in December 1955, unlike in OTL.

 

[pipisme]

In OTL Sir Archibald Sinclair had a stroke in 1952, following which he accepted elevation to the House of Lords as Viscount Thurso on 11 June 1952. In this TL he had a stroke and resigned as leader of the Liberal Party, and MP for Caithness and Sutherland. The Liberals easily held the seat in the subsequent by-election.

The Liberal leader was elected by Liberal MPs. The candidates were Frank Byers, MP for Dorset North and Liberal Chief Whip, and Emrys Roberts, MP for Merionethshire. The number of votes for each candidate were as follows:
Frank Byers: 11
Emrys Roberts: 6
So Byers was elected leader. He appointed Roberts as deputy leader and Edgar Granville, MP for Eye, as Chief Whip. Roberts was regarded as being too left wing.

Two by-elections in Conservative constituencies were held on 14 February 1956. That in Hereford was caused by the elevation to the peerage of James Thomas as Viscount Cilcennin (pronounced Kilkennin). The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows (1955 general election):
Frank Owen (Liberal): 43.7 (39.3)
David Gibson-Watt (Conservative): 39.1 (43.2)
Labour candidate: 17.2 (17.5)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Liberal majority: 4.6% (Conservative majority: 3.9%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The swing from Conservative to Liberal was 4.25%. Owen was Liberal MP for Hereford from 1929 to 1931.
.
The Howden by-election was caused by Harry Crookshank being made Viscount Crookshank. The percentage votes were as follows:
Paul Bryan (Conservative): 46.1 (49.6)
Liberal candidate: 33.4 (30,4)
Labour candidate: 20.5 (20.0)
-------------------------------------
Liberal majority: 12.7 (19,2)
------------------------------------
There was a swing of 3.25% from Conservative to Liberal.

The Tonbridge by-election on 7 June 1956 was caused by the resignation of Gerald Williams (Conservative). The percentage votes were as follows:
Richard Hornby (Conservative): 41.5 (50.8)
Labour candidate: 38.1 (30.7)
Liberal candidate: 20.4 (18.5)
-------------------------------------------
Conservative majority: 3.4 (20.1)
-------------------------------------------
The swing from Conservative to Labour was 8.35%.