The flame of British Liberalism burns steady and brighter: A timeline from 1945

[pipisme]

Betty Boothroyd resigned as Speaker of the House of Commons and Labour MP for West Bromwich West on 23 October 2000 (as in OTL). In the subsequent election for Speaker on the same day, Sir George Young (Conservative) was elected with support from Conservative, Labour and Liberal MPs. In OTL Michael Martin was elected Speaker.

 

[pipisme]

Shirley Williams was Chairman of Ways and Means (Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons).

In August 2000, Gordon Brown married Sarah Macaulay in a private ceremony at their home in North Queensferry, Fife. Sarah gave birth to their daughter, Jennifer, by Caesarian section at 31 weeks on 4 Jan in Forth Park Hospital in Kirkcaldy. She was about 5 weeks premature and weighed 5 lbs 7 oz. Unlike in OTL, Jennifer survived and grew up. She is now twenty years old.

9/11 followed by Operation Enduring Freedom with British military participation, happened as in OTL.

 

[pipisme]

A report by a government appointed committee recommended the introduction of university tuition fees to finance higher education. However it was rejected by the cabinet. Instead they decided on a graduate tax. The Graduate Tax Bill received its second reading in the House of Commons in November 2001. It was opposed by the Conservatives because they wanted tuition fees instead, and by the Liberals, who were against a graduate tax and tuition fees. The bill became law in late February 2002.

The graduate tax is progressive with a limited payment period. Higher earning graduates pay more than those who earn less. In his biography My Life, Our Times Gordon Brown said that he had always opposed tuition fees, and argued in cabinet for a graduate tax.

 

[pipisme]

The Ipswich by-election on 22 November 2001, caused by the death of Jamie Cann (Labour), was held on 22 November 2001. It was a Conservative gain from Labour by a majority of 1.3%. The Labour majority in the 1999 general election was 9.2%.

From the book Further up the Hill: The Diaries of Chris Mullin :
'Thursday 5 September 2002:
There has been a cabinet reshuffle. Gordon has promoted Robin Cook from Environment Secretary to Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary in place of Frank Dobson, who has resigned. He has appointed Charles Kennedy as Environment Secretary, and Vince Cable as Trade and Industry Secretary, in place of David Owen who is out of the government. Gordon has offered me the post of Financial Secretary to the Treasury, which I have accepted. He has promoted Yvette Cooper from Financial Secretary to the Treasury to Education and Science Secretary, to replace Kim Howells who has been appointed Secretary of State for Wales, in place of Win Griffiths, who has left the government.'

Among the new junior ministerial appointments were the following:
Ed Balls: Minister of State Department of Social Services
Chris Huhne: Minister of State Department of Energy
David Miliband: Minister of State Foreign Office
Ed Miliband: Economic Secretary to the Treasury.

 

[pipisme]

The UK Joint Intelligence Committee stated in its dossier, published in September 2002, on Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Assessment of the British Government, that 'Iraq continued to produce chemical agents' and that Saddam Hussein 'continues in his efforts to develop nuclear weapons.' (1)

On 7 March 2003, the Attorney-General, Sir Paul Boateng, in his long and detailed assessment on the legality of a proposed invasion of Iraq, stated that 'British participation in the American led invasion could be declared illegal without a second UN resolution.' (2) In OTL this was the assessment of the Attorney- General, Lord Goldsmith.

On 17 March 2003, in a speech from the White House, President George W. Bush told Saddam Hussein that he and his sons must leave Iraq within 48 hours. If they did not, the US would initiate military conflict at a time of its choosing.

The Cabinet met at 3 pm on the same day. They had before them the legal advice of the Attorney-General. (3) We know from the memoirs of some ministers that it was a long meeting. The 'doves' - Robin Cook, Vince Cable, Charles Kennedy, and Michael Meacher argued that a second UN resolution was needed. The 'hawks' - David Blunkett, Ann Clwyd, Alistair Darling and Jack Straw argued that a second UN resolution was not necessary, though desirable.

(1) and (2) Taken from My Life, Our Times by Gordon Brown.

(3) In OTL , the cabinet saw revised advice from Lord Goldsmith that an invasion of Iraq would be legal without a second UN resolution.

 

[pipisme]

In a day of high political drama, by 5.30 pm on 17 March the cabinet reached agreement by majority vote, to authorise British participation in the US led invasion of Iraq. In interviews with the media, Gordon Brown said they did so because there were serious reasons to believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and to support our American allies. It was a matter of opinion as to whether a second resolution was definitely required. Saddam Hussein was a tyrant and he and his regime must be overthrown.

Vince Cable, Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy, and Michael Meacher immediately resigned from the cabinet. They were all interviewed on BBC and ITV news programmes, on Channel Four News and Newsnight. Later that evening Maria Fyfe, the Minister of Transport resigned from the cabinet, and the junior ministers Chris Huhne, Chris Mullin and Dawn Primarolo also resigned from the government.

 

[stodge]

Two thoughts - first, I find it stretching credibility a Cabinet and Prime Minister would act against the legal advice of its own senior law officer.

On that basis, I can envisage the resignations and the virtual collapse of the Cabinet indicated.

The other side is what are the positions of the Conservative and Liberal parties? In OTL, the Conservative sunder Iain Duncan-Smith were strongly supportive of the Iraqi invasion and British participation while Charles Kennedy as leader of the LDs was or became the strongest anti-war voice.

Do we see the Liberals emerge as the only strong anti-war movement? Will there be an event comparable to the great anti-war protest of 15 February 2003 in OTL?

Could we see some Labour MPs and councillors defecting to the Liberals?

 

[Rattigan]

I think I second, @stodge 's comments here: I'm surprised Brown could bring the cabinet with him if there wasn't some kind of legal cover as in OTL. That being said, I can't see how the government survives long with all those cabinet resignations. I wonder if something similar to OTL Spain will happen and the government loses an election and the next government finds an excuse to withdraw?

 

[pipisme]

Two thoughts - first, I find it stretching credibility a Cabinet and Prime Minister would act against the legal advice of its own senior law officer.

On that basis, I can envisage the resignations and the virtual collapse of the Cabinet indicated.

The other side is what are the positions of the Conservative and Liberal parties? In OTL, the Conservative sunder Iain Duncan-Smith were strongly supportive of the Iraqi invasion and British participation while Charles Kennedy as leader of the LDs was or became the strongest anti-war voice.

Do we see the Liberals emerge as the only strong anti-war movement? Will there be an event comparable to the great anti-war protest of 15 February 2003 in OTL?

Could we see some Labour MPs and councillors defecting to the Liberals?

I originally intended that the cabinet would agree to Britain taking part in the invasion of Iraq, only if there was a second UN resolution. I changed my mind because I thought having what happened in my previous post would be more politically interesting. However after reading your comment about the Prime Minister and his cabinet acting the advice of the Attorney- General, I have decided to go back to my original intention.

So the cabinet agreed to commit British troops to a US led invasion of Iraq, only of there was a second UN resolution. There was a huge anti war demonstration on 15 February 2003, as in OTL. The Liberal Party was mostly anti war.

 

[stodge]

I think what you've put forward is "interesting" enough. More resignations than from the Blair Cabinet in OTL - defections? I'll leave that one with you.

I think had the Cabinet ignored the advice of the Attorney General, the AG would have resigned, published the advice and taken the matter to Parliament. Labour's majority might not be enough to survive a censure motion from the opposition and politically it would be in ruins.

Even so, the Cabinet's recommendation would still need to go to the Commons as it did in OTL. In the debate on 18 March 2003 in OTL, 254 Labour MPs backed the Government, 84 opposed and 69 abstained. 146 Conservatives backed the Government and 17 were opposed. In the ATL, those numbers might look very different - I believe Blair has said he would have resigned if the vote had been lost.

I'll be fascinated to see where you go with this pivotal political event which in many ways defined the second part of the Blair Administration in OTL.

 

[pipisme]

On 18 March 2003, the House of Commons debated a government motion to approve its decision to seek a second UN resolution before going to war against Iraq. The debate was opened by the Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook. In it he said:
"The threshold of war should always be high. None of us can predict the death toll of civilians from the forthcoming bombardment of Iraq, but the US warning of a bombing campaign that will 'shock and awe', makes it likely that casualties will be numbered at least in the thousands. I hope that Saddam, even now, will quit Baghdad and avert war, but it is false to argue that only those who support war, support our troops.

"Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term - namely a credible device capabke of being delivered against a strategic city target. It probably still has biological toxins and battlefield chemical munitions. As Foreign Secretary I am partly responsible for the western strategy of containment. Over the past decade that strategy destroyed more weapons than in the Gulf War, dismantled Iraq's nuclear weapons and halted Saddam's medium and long-range missiles programme.

"France wants more time for inspections. Germany wants more time for inspections. Russia wants more time for inspections. (1) The British government wants more time for inspections."

The shadow Foreign Secretary, Malcolm Rifkind, in a thoughtful and constructive speech, was generally supportive of the government. He said that the Conservative Party would not divide the House at the end of the debate. However a group of Conservative backbenchers tabled an amendment to the government motion. This 'condemned the government for its failure to take the necessary action in support of the United States of America, to destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, and remove Saddam Hussein and his tyrannical regime.'

At the end of the debate the amendment was defeated by 297 votes to 106 votes. Labour and Liberal MPs voted for the government motion. Those Conservative MPs who did not vote for the amendment abstained.

(1) Taken from Cook's resignation speech in the House of Commons in OTL. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Cook, section External links Text of Cook's resignation statement in the House of Commons, 17 March 2003.

 

[pipisme]

On 19 March 2003, a United Nations resolution authorising military action against Iraq was vetoed by France. The next day, the United States, supported by Spain and other nations, began an invasion of Iraq in co-ordination with intense of Baghdad and other military targets. Gordon Brown said that British troops would not take part in the invasion. President Bush said that the US would not be prevented by France from doing what was necessary from removing Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction.

 

[stodge]

On 19 March 2003, a United Nations resolution authorising military action against Iraq was vetoed by France. The next day, the United States, supported by Spain and other nations, began an invasion of Iraq in co-ordination with intense of Baghdad and other military targets. Gordon Brown said that British troops would not take part in the invasion. President Bush said that the US would not be prevented by France from doing what was necessary from removing Saddam Hussein and his weapons of mass destruction.

I do not think the US (presumably with UK support) would have tabled a second resolution knowing, as they presumably did, that France, Russia and China would be opposed - the resolution would have been defeated.

I find it unthinkable a Security Council member would have then gone ahead with military action after the SC had voted against it - in OTL, there was no second resolution and the US intervened on the basis of the original Resolution 1441 from 2002.

I think that's the most likely sequence of events in the ATL - the main difference from OTL being the absence of British forces for which the Americans were prepared.

 

[pipisme]

I do not think the US (presumably with UK support) would have tabled a second resolution knowing, as they presumably did, that France, Russia and China would be opposed - the resolution would have been defeated.

I find it unthinkable a Security Council member would have then gone ahead with military action after the SC had voted against it - in OTL, there was no second resolution and the US intervened on the basis of the original Resolution 1441 from 2002.

I think that's the most likely sequence of events in the ATL - the main difference from OTL being the absence of British forces for which the Americans were prepared.

I agree with what you say about a second resolution not being tabled. So in this TL the US led invasion of Iraq happens without British troops.

 

[pipisme]

The general election for the Scottish Parliament was held on 7 May 2002. The number of seats won by each party were as follows (May 1998 election):
SNP: 49 [43]
Labour: 29 [48]
Conservative: 20 [20]
Liberal: 15 [16]
Scottish Socialist: 7 [1}
Green: 6 [1]
Scottish Senior Citizen: 1 [n/a]
Independents: 2 [-]
----------------------
Total: 129 [129]
--------------------

 

[pipisme]

After the election for the Scottish Parliament, Labour and Liberal together had only 44 out of 129 seats. If Conservative MSPs were added in a unionist, anti SNP coalition, that would bring the total to 64 seats. But Labour would never agree to coalition with the Tories.

The SNP approached the Liberals about forming a coalition government. But the Liberals turned them down. Then the SNP agreed confidence and supply with the Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Socialist Party. John Swinney became First Minister of Scotland at the head of an SNP minority government on 19 May 2002. The ministers in the cabinet were as follows:
First Minister; John Swinney
Deputy First Minster and Cabinet Secretary for Health and Wellbeing: Roseanna Cunningham
Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth: Michael Russell
Cabinet Secretary for Education and Lifelong Learning: Fipna Hyslop
Cabinet Secretary for Justice; Nicola Sturgeon
Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and the Environment: Richard Lochhead.

 

[pipisme]

Jack McConnell resigned as leader of the Scottish Labour Party on 15 May 2002, with immediate effect. Cathy Jamieson, the deputy leader, took over as acting leader. On 19 May, the procedure committee of Scottish Labour announced the timetable for the election. On the same day Jamieson announced her resignation as deputy leader, so there was also an election for deputy leader. Nominations closed on 23 May. The candidates in the leadership election were Margaret Curran, Cathy Jamieson and Tom McCabe.

The election took place using the alternative vote in an electoral college. On third of the votes were allocated to Labour MSPs, MPs, and MEPs, one third to individual members, and one third to affiliated organisations, mainly trade unions. The result of the election was announced on 5 July 2002. Cathy Jamieson was elected leader in the second round with 58.6% of the vote to 41.4% for Margaret Curran. On the same day Angus McKay was elected deputy leader.

 

[pipisme]

On Tuesday 20 May 2003, Gordon Brown announced his intention to resign as leader of the Labour Party, and prime minister, when the party had elected a new leader. He said that he had been Labour leader and prime minister for nine years, and that was long enough.

The candidates in the election were as follows:
Vince Cable: Trade and Industry Secretary
Yvette Cooper: Education and Science Secretary
Charles Kennedy: Environment Secretary
Alan Johnson: Northern Ireland Secretary
John McDonnell who was a backbencher.
Election was by the alternative vote in an electoral college, in which Labour MPs and MEPs had one third of the vote, individual Labour Party members had one third, and trade unions and other affiliated organisations had one third.

 

[pipisme]

With a general election due no later than October 2004, the voters in the Labour leadership election were very much aware that they were not only choosing the person who would be the best prime minister, but have the most popular appeal. In the face of rumours that he a 'drinking problem', .Charles Kennedy asserted that he had his drinking under control.

The result of the election was announced at a special conference of the Labour Party in London on Saturday 28 June 2003. The percentage votes for each candidate in the first round were as follows:
Johnson: 34.9
Cable: 26.3
Kennedy: 20.3
Cooper: 10.1
McDonnell: 8.4
---------------
Total: 100.0
---------------
McDonnell was eliminated after the first round, Cooper after the second round, and Kennedy after the third round. In the fourth round, Johnson was elected with 54.2% of the vote to 45.8 for Cable. So Alan Johnson became leader of the Labour Party and prime minister.

 

[pipisme]

The new prime minister, Alan Johnson, made the following changes to his government:
Vince Cable from Trade and Industry Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Jack Straw from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons, in place of Michael Meacher who resigned.
Yvette Cooper from Education and Science Secretary to Trade and Industry Secretary,
Dawn Primarolo from Chief Secretary to the Education and Science Secretary,
Ed Balls from Minister of State Department of Social Services to Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
Charles Kennedy from Environment Secretary to Northern Ireland Secretary,
Hilary Armstrong from Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food to Secretary of State for the new Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The Ministry of Agriculture was abolished.
Alistair Darling from Scotland Secretary to Defence Secretary in place of Gavin
Strang, who resigned.
Brian Wilson from Energy Secretary to Scotland Secretary,
Ed Miliband from Economic Secretary to the Treasury to Energy Secretary,
Chris Huhne from Minister of State Department of Energy to Economic Secretary to the Treasury,
John McDonnell apppinted Minister of State Department of Energy.