The flame of British Liberalism burns steady and brighter: A timeline from 1945

[pipisme]

In this TL Roy Jenkins did not reach the political heights he did in OTL. He climbed no higher than Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Also he was never President of the European Commission. He was more famous for his biographies of Asquith and Gladstone.

There had been speculation and rumours that David Owen, William Rogers and Shirley Williams would leave the Labour Party and start a new Centre Party. However in a joint article in the Observer for 25 January 1981, they said that they would stay in the Labour Party and fight for democratic socialist policies and values. "A Centre Party would have no roots, no principles, no philosophy and no values." (1)

Rogers and Williams were in the shadow cabinet. Owen was on the Labour front bench health team. It was, and is, widely thought that if Foot had been elected leader of the Labour Party instead of Healey, and if the Special Conference had passed a motion which would have given the trade unions 40%, MPs 30% and the constituency parties 30% in the electoral college, they would have left the Labour Party and started a new party.

(1) Shirley Williams' opinion of a Centre Party, as quoted in The Time of My Life by Denis Healey.

 

[pipisme]

Frank Maguire, the Independent Republican MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, died on 5 March 1981. The subsequent by-election was held on 9 April 1981. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows [1978 general election]:
Bernadette McAliskey (nee Devlin) [Independent Republican]: 42.4 [39.3]
Harry West [UUP]: 42.1 [24.7]
Austin Currie [SDLP}; 15.5 [17.3]
[United Ulster Unionist: 17.6 ]
[Alliance: 1.1]
--------------------------------------------------------
Independent Republican majority: 0.3 [14.6]
-------------------------------------------------------

 

[pipisme]

Because Special Category Status was not removed from prisoners in Northern Ireland, there were no IRA hunger strikes. So Bobby Sands and the other hunger strikers did not die, and they remained unknown outside their families and friends.

The Croydon North-West by-election caused by the death of Robert Taylor [Conservative] was held on 22 October 1981. It was a Labour gain from Conservative by a majority of 15.1%. The Conservative majority in the 1978 general election was 6.8%. The vote for the Liberal candidate, Bill Pitt, was 12.5%, down from 17.4% in the general election. The Coalition majority in the House of Commons was reduced from 16 to 14.

The Tories won the Crosby by-election on 26 November 1981, caused by the death of Graham Page (Conservative). However their majority over Labour fell from 29.1% to 8.7%. The Liberal vote fell from 22.1% to 18.7%.

 

[pipisme]

In 1981 unemploynent in the UK rose to over three million, and inflation was around 20 per cent.

The Glasgow Hillhead by-election, caused by the death of Tam Galbraith (Conservative) , was held on 25 March 1982. The result was a Labour gain from Comservative by a majority of 17.8%. The Conservative majority in the 1978 general election was 4.1%. The constituency had been Tory since it was created in 1918. The Liberal vote fell from 20.3% to 14.1%. The Coalition majority was now down to 12.

Argentinian forces invaded and occupied the Falkland Islands on 2 April 1982. (As in OTL). Robert Carr resigned as Foreign Secretary and Francis Pym resigned as Defence Secretary. Reginald Maudling made the following changes to his government: James Prior from Employment Secretary to Foreign Secretary, Humphrey Atkins from Paymaster-General to Employment Secretary, Michael Heseltine promoted from Minister of State Department of Trade to Paymaster-General, John Nott from Industry Secretary to Defence Secretary, Geoffrey Howe promoted from Financial Secretary to Treasury to Industry Secretary, Nigel Lawson appointed Financial Secretary to Treasury.

There was an emergency debate in the House of Commons on Saturday 3 April. The Leader of the Opposition, Denis Healey, strongly condemned the invasion as an act of aggression by a brutal military dictatorship. But he also attacked the government for having announced in 1981 that it would withdraw the only naval vessel permanently stationed in the area, to save two million pounds a year; and for having decided to scrap the aircraft carrier Hermes and the assault ships Fearless and Intrepid ; and was selling the mini-carrier Invincible to the Australian navy. (1) He said that if Reginald Maudling had begun to assemble these ships into a task force as soon as the Joint Intelligence Committee reported in 1981 a that there was a risk of invasion, and had made known its existence known when there was firm intelligence from the beginning of 1982 that the Argentian dictator, General Galtieri, was planning an invasion of the Falkland Islands, the invasion would not have taken place. (2)

(1) This was as in OTL, and is taken from The Time of My Life by Denis Healey, London: Penguin Group, 1989.

(2) Taken from The Time of My Life but with Maudling instead of Thatcher.

 

[pipisme]

The Falklands conflict happened as in OTL, with the Argentinian surrender on 28 June 1982.

Under the provisions of the coalition agreement between the Conservative and Liberal parties, the Liberals could leave the coalition after four years. Liberal MPs met on 22 April 1982 and agreed unanimously to continue with the coalition for another three months.

The Beaconsfield by-election caused by the death of Ronald Bell (Conservative) was held on 27 May 1982. It was won by the Conservatives with a majority of 28.1% over
Labour. Their majority in the 1978 general election was 33.0% over Labour. The Labour candidate was Tony Blair, a twenty-nine year old barrister.

Labour won the Coatbridge and Airdrie by-election on 24 June 1982, caused by the death of James Dempsey (Labour) with a majority of 30.1% over Conservative, up from 25.5% in the general election. The Liberal candidate came fourth behind SNP and lost his deposit.

A Gallup poll in early July 1982 showed a Conservative lead of four per cent over
Labour. The first Tory lead since September 1978.

 

[pipisme]

Liberal MPs met on Thursday 22 July 1982 to decide whether or not to continue the coalition with the Conservatives. Westminster and the media were full of speculation about a likely October general election. The latest opinion polls showed an average Conservative lead of 6.5% over Labour, and the Liberals at an average of 15.2%, down from 19.6% in the 1978 general election. The consensus was that as there would probably be a general election, and Liberal support was not falling all that much, the coalition might as well continue.

On Monday 6 September 1982, the Prime Minister, Reginald Maudling, announced in a Downing Street media conference that there would be a general election on Thursday 7 October. Parliament would be dissolved on 17 September. Nominations would close on 27 September and the new Parliament meet on 19 October.

 

[pipisme]

The Labour Party manifesto for the October 1982 general election was much like the Labour maniifesto for the OTL June 1983 general election. But it did not include British withdrawal from the EEC and abolition of the House of Lords, and pledged a Labour gpvernment to a policy of multilateral rather than unilateral disarmament.

There was a major redistribution of seats with an increase in the number of constituencies from 635 to 650. There were ten more constituences in England and five more in Northern Ireland. Hertford and Stevenage, the constituency represented by shadow Environment Secretary, Shirley Williams, had been abolished, mostly divided between Hertford and Stortford, and Stevenage. The former was safe Conservative, while Stevenage was marginal, leaning Labour, Williams chose to stand in Stevenage.

In the new constituency of Southwark and Bermondsey, John Tilley was selected as Labour candidate in preference to Peter Tatchell. Tilley had been Labour MP for Lambeth Central from 1978, but that constituency was abolished. George Thomas, the Speaker of the House of Commons, did not contest the general election. He retired as Labour MP for Cardiff West.

When all the constituencies had declared the number of seats in the House of Commons won by each party were as follows (1978 general election):
Conservative: 347 (310)
Labour: 270 (287)
Liberal: 10 (16)
Ulster Unionist: 9 (5)
Social Democratic and Labour: 4 (1)
Scottish National (SNP): 4 (8)
Democratic Unionist: 2 (2)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (2)
Sinn Fein: 1 (-)
Ulster Popular Unionist: 1 (-)
(Alliance: 1, Independent Republican: 1, Independent Ulster
( Unionist : 1, United Ulster Unionist: 1)
-----------------------------
Total: 650 (635)
-----------------------------
The Conservative majority over all parties was 44.

The percentage votes for each party were as follows:
Conservative: 42,6 (39.2)
Labour: 36.4 (34.7)
Liberal: 15.2 (19,7)
SNP: 2.2 (2.6)
Plaid Cymru: 0.5 (0.4)
Others: 3.1 (3.3)
-------------------------
Total: 100.0 (100.0)
------------------------
The national swing from Labour to Conservative was 0.85%.

Shirley Williams won Stevenage and John Tllley was elected for Southwark and Bermondsey.

 

[pipisme]

The Conservative gains from Labour in the 1982 general election, compared with the 1978 general election, were as follows: Aberdeen South, Barrow-in-Furness, Dudley West, Ealing North, Hayes and Harlington, Hornchurch, Kettering, Lincoln, Mitcham and Morden, Norwich North, Nuneaton, Plymouth Devonport, Southampton Itchen. Among the Labour MPs defeated were Margaret Beckett (Lincoln), Albert Booth (Barrow-in-Furness), David Ennals (Hayes and Harlington), David Owen (Plymouth Devonport). Ann Widdecombe was elected Conservative MP for this constituency. The Tories won back Croydon North-West which they lost to Labour in the October 1981 by-election. Conservative gains from Liberal were: Cornwall North, Devon North, Hereford.

Labour gained the following seats from Conservative compared with the 1978 general election: Basildon, Birmingham Yardley, Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, Newcastle-upon-Tyne North, Stretford. Labour gained Colne Valley, and Rochdale from Labour. The only Liberal gain was Yeovil, where Paddy Ashdown took the seat from the Tories.

There were the following gains in Northern Ireland: Democratic Unionist from Alliance: Belfast East; Sinn Fein from Social Democratic and Labour (SDLP): :Belfast West; SDLP from Ulster Unionist: South Down; SDLP from United Ulster Unionist: Mid Ulster; Ulster Unionist from Democratic Unionist: Belfast North; Ulster Unionist from Independent Republican: Fermanagh and South Tyrone. North Down was a Popular Unionist gain from Independent Unionist, but James Kilfedder stayed as MP for the constituency. He changed parties.

The other gains and losses were because of the redistribution of seats.

 

[pipisme]

Among the new Labour MPs were Kate Hoey (Dulwich) and John McDonnell who won the new seat of Hampstead and Highgate. Tony Blair was the Labour candidate in the Beaconsfield by-election the previous May. He was going to contest that seat in the general election. However his friend, Derry Irvine, suggested he tried for a winnable seat. In the marginal Conservative seat of High Peak in Derbyshire, David Bookbinder. the Labour candidate in 1978, was selected as candidate for the new seat of Amber Valley in Derbyshire. Blair won the Labour selection for High Peak. In the general election there was a slight increase in the Conservative majority over Labour from 7.3% to 8.2%. This was a below average swing to Conservative. Bookbinder won Amber Valley. Les Huckfield won the new seat of Sedgefield for Labour.

Because Peter Shore was Labour MP for Islington North, Jeremy Corbyn could not be the Labour candidate for that constituency. He was selected as candidate for the Conservative seat of Enfield North. In the general election he came second.

Charles Kennedy the Labour candidate for Ross, Cromarty and Skye, was the youngest youngest Labour candidate, He was twenty-two years. He came a close third behind the Liberal candidate.

The Liberal Party lost three seats to Conservative, two seats from Labour and five seats by redistribution, Aberdeenshire West, Cardiganshire, Chippenham, Richmond (Surrey) , Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles. They gained one seat from Conservative and three new seats, Ceredigion and Pembroke North, Roxburgh and Berwick, and Tweedaie, Ettrick and Lauderdale. That was a net loss of six seats. Among the Liberal MPs who lost their seats were the party leader Mark Bonham Carter (Devon North), John Pardoe (Cornwall North), Nancy Seear (Rochdale), and Richard Wainwright (Colne Valley). Ronnie Fearn and Alan Watkins did not win the new constituencies of Gordon, and Richmond and Barnes respectively.

In Northern Ireland among the MPs who lost their seats were Gerry Fitt (SDLP - Belfast West), Bernadette McAliskey (Independent Republican - Fermanagh and South Tyrone), Oliver Napier (Alliance - Belfast East), and Enoch Powell (Ulster Unionist - South Down). John Hume and Seamus Mallon were the SDLP members for the new constituencies of Foyle, and Newry and Armagh respectively.

 

[pipisme]

On 8, 9 and 10 October 1982, the Prime Minister, Reginald Maudling, carried out a major reshuffle of his government. Liberal ministers in the coalition government had
departed, and several Conservative ministers resigned. The changes were as follows;
William Whitelaw from Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons to Home Secretary in place of Mark Bonham Carter,
Norman St.John from Education and Science Secretary to Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons,
Robert Rhodes James from Minister of State Department of Education and Science to Education and Science Secretary,
Sir Keith Joseph from Health and Social Security Secretary to Trade Secretary and
President of the Board of Trade in place of John Pardoe,
Ian Gilmour from Northern Ireland Secretary to Health and Social Security Secretary,
Nicholas Scott from Minister of Overseas Development to Northern Ireland Secretary,
Timothy Raison from Minister of State Foreign Office to Minister of Overseas Development.
Earl of Carrington resigned as Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords,
Earl of Gowrie from Minister of State Home Office to Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords.
Edward Heath resigned as Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Margaret Thatcher from Environment Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer, Peter Walker from Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food to Environment Secretary,
Nicholas Ridley from Minister of State Environment to Minister of Agriculture etc.
David Price resigned as Energy Secretary,
Cecil Parkinson fro m Minister of State Trade to Energy Secretary.
Geoffrey Rippon resigned as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster,
Baroness Young from Minister of State Health and Social Security to Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
Alick Buchanan-Smith resigned as Secretary of State for Scotland,
Malcolm Rifkind from Under- Secretary Scottish Office to Secretary of State for Scotland.
Wyn Roberts resigned as Secretary of State for Wales,
John Stradling Thomas from Minister of State Welsh Office to Secretary of State for Wales.
Nigel Lawson from Financial Secretary to the Treasury to Chief Secretary to the Treasury in place of Richard Wainwright,
John Major from Minister of State Energy to Financial Secretary to the Treasury.
Sir Leon Brittain appointed Solicitor-General in place of Sir Emlyn Hooson.

 

[Rattigan]

Are the moves for Thatcher and Joseph meant to indicate that the monetarists are taking over the Tories TTL too?

 

[sarahz]

On 8, 9 and 10 October 1982, the Prime Minister, Reginald Maudling, carried out a major reshuffle of his government. Liberal ministers in the coalition government had
departed, and several Conservative ministers resigned. The changes were as follows;
William Whitelaw from Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons to Home Secretary in place of Mark Bonham Carter,
Norman St.John from Education and Science Secretary to Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons,
Robert Rhodes James from Minister of State Department of Education and Science to Education and Science Secretary,
Sir Keith Joseph from Health and Social Security Secretary to Trade Secretary and
President of the Board of Trade in place of John Pardoe,
Ian Gilmour from Northern Ireland Secretary to Health and Social Security Secretary,
Nicholas Scott from Minister of Overseas Development to Northern Ireland Secretary,
Timothy Raison from Minister of State Foreign Office to Minister of Overseas Development.
Earl of Carrington resigned as Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords,
Earl of Gowrie from Minister of State Home Office to Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords.
Edward Heath resigned as Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Margaret Thatcher from Environment Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer, Peter Walker from Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food to Environment Secretary,
Nicholas Ridley from Minister of State Environment to Minister of Agriculture etc.
David Price resigned as Energy Secretary,
Cecil Parkinson fro m Minister of State Trade to Energy Secretary.
Geoffrey Rippon resigned as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster,
Baroness Young from Minister of State Health and Social Security to Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
Alick Buchanan-Smith resigned as Secretary of State for Scotland,
Malcolm Rifkind from Under- Secretary Scottish Office to Secretary of State for Scotland.
Wyn Roberts resigned as Secretary of State for Wales,
John Stradling Thomas from Minister of State Welsh Office to Secretary of State for Wales.
Nigel Lawson from Financial Secretary to the Treasury to Chief Secretary to the Treasury in place of Richard Wainwright,
John Major from Minister of State Energy to Financial Secretary to the Treasury.
Sir Leon Brittain appointed Solicitor-General in place of Sir Emlyn Hooson.

Hmm surely its Norman St John Stevas not just St John

 

[pipisme]

Hmm surely its Norman St John Stevas not just St John

It is Norman St. John Stevas. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[pipisme]

Are the moves for Thatcher and Joseph meant to indicate that the monetarists are taking over the Tories TTL too?

That remains to be seen. They have a significant amount of support in the Tory party.

Here is the cabinet:
Prime Minister: Reginald Maudling
Lord Chancellor: Viscount Hailsham
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons: Norman St. John Stevas
Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords: Earl of Gowrie
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Margaret Thatcher
Foreign Secretary: James Prior:
Home Secretary: William Whitelaw
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Nicholas Ridley
Defence Secretary: John Nott
Education and Science Secretary: Robert Rhodes James
Energy Secretary: Cecil Parkinson
Environment Secretary: Peter Walker
Employment Secretary: Humphrey Atkins
Health and Social Security Secretary: Ian Gilmour
Industry Secretary: Geoffrey Howe
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Baroness Young
Northern Ireland Secretary: Nicholas Scott
Paymaster-General: Michael Heseltine
Scotland Secretary: Malcolm Rifkind
Trade Secretary and President of the Board of Trade: Sir Keith Joseph
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Nigel Lawson
Wales Secretary: John Stradling Thomas.

Selected junior ministers:
Minister of Overseas Development: Timothy Raison
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: John Major
Economic Secretary to the Treasury: Edward du Cann
Attorney-General: Sir Patrick Mayhew
Solicitor-General: Sir Leon Brittain.

 

[stodge]

I shall have one day to put together a TL where being in coalition with the Conservatives leads to a stronger Liberal (Or Liberal Democrats) Party.

 

[sarahz]

I shall have one day to put together a TL where being in coalition with the Conservatives leads to a stronger Liberal (Or Liberal Democrats) Party

Its dificult but maybe if thete is a coaitiion instead of the Blair Government at the time of the purportrd invasion of Iraq and the Lib Dems walk out of the Government over it thus effectively leaving Labour to decide to support the war,

 

[Rattigan]

Its dificult but maybe if thete is a coaitiion instead of the Blair Government at the time of the purportrd invasion of Iraq and the Lib Dems walk out of the Government over it thus effectively leaving Labour to decide to support the war,

Or even if you keep the Labour majority in 1997 down to 2005 levels. Blair always said he’d have liked to bring Ashdown into government if that had been the case - who knows, maybe he even meant it?

I think the problem the Lib Dem’s had with any coalition by that time is that they were campaigning on such a comprehensive manifesto they were always going to ‘betray’ some people by a coalition. The catch 22 for third parties under FPTP is you can only really ‘succeed’ by being a junior partner in a coalition and having a big ‘thing’ you want to do (in the Liberals’ case maybe electoral reform) which you then insist on as the price of coalition but it’s hard to get to that position in the first place without kind of pretending you’re a government in waiting…

 

[Rattigan]

I shall have one day to put together a TL where being in coalition with the Conservatives leads to a stronger Liberal (Or Liberal Democrats) Party.

One possible (I’d be interested to see what other people say) route to this might be to have all the Lib Dem ministers concentrated in a couple of departments (e.g. Defence and the Environment), so they’d have a concrete record to defend come the next election and more reasonably distance themselves (if needed) from the policies of their partners in domestic and economic affairs…

 

[lucon50]

I mean, the Lib Dems back there were arguably more progressive than (New) Labour, which says a lot haha. Assuming the possibility that Blair for once ‘meant it’, a coalition between the two would be hopeful for the future of Britain.

 

[Rattigan]

I mean, the Lib Dems back there were arguably more progressive than (New) Labour, which says a lot haha. Assuming the possibility that Blair for once ‘meant it’, a coalition between the two would be hopeful for the future of Britain.

Maybe? I don’t know. Maybe Labour absorbs the Lib Dems into a single ‘Progressive’ party before 2001 but there’s so much bad blood there: I think by that time Shirley Williams and Dennis Healey were still not talking (not that those two particularly mattered but it gives you an idea).

As regards the Lib Dems being the real progressive party, I don’t think that was so clear cut until they took their stances on Iraq and tuition fees, which both came under Kennedy and not Ashdown (IIRC).

(Labour not splitting in 1981 and Charles Kennedy becoming Labour PM in c. 2002 is a TL that should happen btw)