The First World War Starts in 1898

33k7

33k7

how do you see this scenario playing out 3 French citizen assassinates Kaiser Wilhelm son Prince Eitel Friedrich of Prussia in the failed assassination attempt to kill Kaiser Wilhelm. An there's just enough evidence to tie this men to a left or right political party in France that may have given them the order.

alternate scenario to the war 3 man from the Social Democratic Party of Germany kill President Félix Faure to start a war to the weak in the German monarchy.
 
Danifa94

Danifa94

Do you want to see if the scenarios are plausible or how the War is going to evolve by the early start?

For me, the most plausible scenario is the first (the second I believe that will not generate a war because it will be easy for the SPD and the Kaiserreich to convince the French that those 3 are insane and are in no way connected with Germany or the SPD) an even if they are succesful, it will not be guaranteed that it will be enough to generate the chain reaction of secret alliances that started World War I.

The way I see the scenario evolving is like this:

*The 3 French citizens try to murder Kaiser Wilhelm II but fail and murder the Kronprinz instead. The Kaiser, mad with grief, decides to send an humillating ultimatum to France. The Chancellor, Chlodwig, prince of Hohenlohe-Schillingfurst, is again unable to stop the reckless foreign policy of the Emperor. The Faure government, takes the option of using this to unify French public opinion, divided by l'affaire Dreyfus. Considerating the terms of the Ultimatum as insulting to French Honour, the French reject the terms of the Ultimatum and start the mobilization of the armed forces. Meanwhile, the French inform the russians that a German attack will be considered enough reason for activiting their secret alliance (since 1894). Czar Nicholas II declares that Russia will support the French and starts to prepare for a partial mobilization. The Germans, seeing that that the Kaiser´s ultimatum has made war unavoidable, prepare their forces for war and ask the same to their allies in the Triple Alliance. While it is possible that the Austro-Hungarians will join (A Russian Victory over Germany would be bad news for the Habsburgs), the Italians back out because for them, the Triple Alliance is a defensive pact only (and they are too occupied with their abyssinian adventure). After Britain tries to mediate (and fails), Europe marches to war...

And then, you have a war.
It is plausible? I wouldnt say that is not, but it is somewhat difficult to imagine. There are more opportunities to stop the war here than in 1914.After all, there was an interest in the Austro-Hungarian government to use the opportunity of Franz Ferdinand´s assasination to make an impossible ultimatum that Serbia would reject, providing Austria-Hungary with a casus Belli to go to war with little Serbia, and ONLY with Serbia (That the Russians will support Serbia and be ready to go to war defending them wasnt part of the plan). Here, why the german government would not try to stop the Kaiser´s idea of insulting (and going to war) with the French? Why blame France if the murderers are connected with french parties, but not with the French Government? Will Faure decide that Russia and France are finally ready for revanche?

And the War itself?

The situation of 1898 is different to the situation in 1914. Russia´s mobilization will be even slower, because it will be a lot less modernized, giving the Germans time for operations against the French. (However it is not that much, because even the germans are working with Late XIXth Century logistics). Schlieffen is Chief of Staff, but his famous plan was written in 1904, so it isnt ready yet. The Entente Cordiale doesnt exist: 1898 is the year of the Fashoda Incident, and Britain and France nearly went to war during the crisis started by that incident (Another reason why the French will try to not go to war against Germany in 1898.They are preparing to go to war against Perfidious Albion, not the boches).

So that is how I see the scenario. I wish that my opinion was helpful to you and others.
 
Last edited:

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
A darker possibility . . .

is that the every 20 to 25 year theory plays out and we get three wars. And since the third one starts later, let’s say mid-40s, well, we haven’t yet developed nuclear weapons, but this time we develop them smack dab in the middle of the war. Pleasant dreams.
 
33k7

33k7

have a few more questions

would there even be a Spanish-American War word president William McKinley risk starting a war if the us might get dragged into a bigger one

could Queen Victoria prevent a war between Russia and Germany or possibly keep Britain out of the war.

the current French president Félix Faure had a fatal seizure a year after the war would have started if this happens or it happened even sooner what do you think the effects of this would be in the war


also fun fact Empress Elisabeth of Austria she most likely doesn't die because she probably wouldn't been able to leave Austria
 
Last edited:
Danifa94

Danifa94

33k7 said:
have a few more questions

would there even be a Spanish-American War word president William McKinley risk starting a war if the us might get dragged into a bigger one

could Queen Victoria prevent a war between Russia and Germany or possibly keep Britain out of the war.

the current French president Félix Faure had a fatal seizure a year after the war would have started if this happens or it happened even sooner what do you think the effects of this would be in the war
Click to expand...

To try to answer your questions:

*Yes, a Spanish-American War is possible. There isnt a real danger of the US getting dragged into a bigger war because Spain doesnt have a Great Power ally, or a secret treaty, to protect them. They only have their old glory and a lot of revolts in their colonies. Also, as people like Citizen Hearst recognized, it was the best moment to go to war. You got the Maine, and if the Americans are late, the Cubans and Filipinos will free themselves, and then how they will recive the "gracious", "civilized", "christian", American protectorate that they obviously "need"?.

*The Grandmother of Europe can prevent wars, but it depends of the type of war that is near to happen. After all,the scenario was about a World War started because a conflict between Germany and France, not between Willy and Nicky. And the relations between Britain, France and Germany werent the best in 1898. Also, this is the era of the Splendid Isolation, so Britain will remain out of the War until it gets clear that the Balance of Power in Europe is in danger, or one of the sides messes up with British interests during the war (Ex. Germany invading Belgium).

* Ah, truly the real reason why Félix Faure is remembered by History: The way he died. Monsieur Faure already had a relation with his mistress Marguerite Steinheil since 1897 and he was old by XIXth Century standards (57 in 1898), so the "context" for the seizure is still there, you only need him to be less lucky with his "management" of personal affaires to get it sooner, or more careful to get it later, or not at all. While Third Republic politics are know by their instability, a war with Germany is one of the few things that can guarantee an united France. You could expect an Union Sacrée government like in 1914, under Faure or his succesor (but formed by the Prime Minister).​
However, we need to remember that Faure was only the Head of State. The Third French Republic was a Parliamentary republic so Faure´s death is not the big hit that you could imagine. In OTL, he was succeeded by Émile Loubet, who had a reputation as an orator of great force and lucidity of exposition, and as a safe and honest statesman, and it was under his presidency that the Entente Cordiale was forged.
 
Last edited:

pjmidd

1898 is hard to get a world war as nothing has really built up for it. The alliance system just not as encompassing , no German Navy so Britain will only join if Belgium is invaded (and the Germans know it ), France itself is seen as as a greater threat by Britain so no unofficial help either.
The Balkans are more stable ( well nobody has an army that can face the Ottomans yet ) so no need for the Ottomans to join, Russia is more concerned with the Far East than Europe so will not start it, A-H not so worried about the Serbs etc.
OTL you had a good decade of preamble with various crisis's ratcheting up the tension and solidifying the alliances, 1898 has none of that. WW1 did not start due to events solely in 1914, it started due to events from 1905 onward meaning only the smallest spark was needed to engulf Europe by 1914.
Getting a second Franco-Prussian/German war, yes, engulfing all of Europe , no. Russia would not join if the French started a war by an attempted assassination, OTL it was a miscalculation on supporting a minor power not realizing how it would escalate ( everyone thought someone else would blink ). Starting off as a major power vs major power , it plays very differently, this scenario would mean France on its own.
 

Alternator

It seems fairly obvious that what he meant was 'bump' and not 'please kick me,' but what he got was pretty funny.

On topic, I think it's more interesting if the French loonies have ties to a *major* party - make them out-and-out crazies acting on their own, but with close relationships to people with Real Power. German demands, outrageous though they may be, are much more sympathetic in that light - "The French tried to murder the Kaiser!" has legs.

I don't see this escalating, but in 1898 do the Germans roll over the French like they would have in 1914 and did in 1870, or is this a more even fight?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top