This leave me a question: what about the upcoming conflict between Chinese Nationalists and Chinese Comunists? How this events will butterfly it?
The Fire Never Dies: Labor's Star Ascendant
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You're absolutely right. In a way, the ASU will be even more beholden to economic interests, as those worker co-ops will (via their unions) have direct representation in the legislature.
It will look completely different. I don't know how, but I'm inclined towards pushing the KMT left.
Considering it's been explicitly stated that the Soviets will lose and that communism has a very bad rep even in the Socialist Union, they're in for a bad time.
That may just make Chinese "communism" look different. As I note below, Chinese communism doesn't actually exist yet--the Chinese Communist Party was only founded in 1921--so it may very well never exist as such ITTL but instead simply be Chinese Socialism or some such.
That's certainly possible; the KMT had a strong right and left wing until Chiang Kai-shek consolidated control and basically destroyed the latter or drove them into the Communists. A lot was happening in the early 1920s vis-a-vis the KMT, and given that Yuan Shikai has been more successful in his imperial project, there is definitely a lot of scope for changing things--hell, even Mao (!!!) at this time wasn't actually a Marxist yet, but was an anarchist or eclectic leftist. Given the course of events ITTL, I would expect that the Chinese left would evolve quite differently--at a minimum, the Russian and American revolutions are giving a quite different model of the course of events and I suspect that the European powers and Japan are going to have different goals and act differently than they did IOTL (quite possibly more actively anti-KMT, etc., for instance).
Another issue is what role American influence will play. Besides the aforementioned economic factors, the KMT at this point is a revolutionary party and has, in theory, doctrines that appeal to common American beliefs, so I suspect that Red America may be very interested in supporting them to try to build up American influence in the Western Pacific, create a counterweight to Japan (which the Navy has thought of for twenty years as the main enemy, even if the Philippines are no longer an issue), and, of course, open up markets in both directions. Particularly important, to my mind, is what role Americans will play in training and developing the Chinese revolutionary army, which IOTL was heavily influenced by the Soviets due to their participation as advisors at the Whampoa military academy (which is where Chiang got his power base). Having Americans instead of Russians there will definitely have some impact, but I'm not sure how much. If they can push Chiang towards not taking power himself, although he seems to have been rather anti-Communist (and thus perhaps disinclined to support even a softer leftism)...well, IDK. Chiang has struck me as a reasonably competent military leader who was not a good national leader and should have been the chief general under a civilian government rather than being a military dictator.
However I still feel that National Protection War will still happen as it was less about repyblucanusm and more military fearing they would lose their influence.
But Shikai would win but China would collapse in Warlord Era.
Speaking of Mao since he was an Anarchist in early life he might become a Kroptikinite.
Shikai has tried to deal with that. He made sure to win the support of the military, offering many of his generals noble titles. My rough plan is that we do get a warlord era, but it is significantly shorter.
Of course, the combination of China stabilizing faster and Japan's stronger position will likely accelerate events. We may see a Second Sino-Japanese War as early as 1928.
I mean, they have an moral/ethical obligation to do so- they see themselves, quite rightly, as a liberatory force from the oppression of capitalism, and believe that the economics that the capitalist countries operate under will inevitably lead to oppression.
(ie the rate of profit for the bourgeoisie will always decline, necessitating greater exploitation of the periphery- see OTL and the various ways the global south is being despoiled by the post-industrial world, or the way America depends on constantly having a deprived underclass to staff the military- if things got better, people might stop Buying Product, which would mean the rich guys would make 10% less profit, which is forbidden)
"No war but class war", "an injury to one is an injury to all"- every war the ASU fights will be ideological in nature. Any insistence otherwise reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the mindset of the american socialists as presented
Given America's IOTL tendency towards isolationism, it really wouldn't surprise me if there were isolationist turns. There will obviously be periods where the ASU is more active in exploring its ideology (again, see OTL), but I think those will be interspersed with periods when people are disillusioned with overseas actions (see the post-Vietnam or post-Iraq slumps) or more focused on internal matters. The 1920s are likely to be one of these latter, because of the cost of the Revolution--a huge amount will need to be invested to rebuild all of the damage and retool war industries towards peacetime products, never mind erasing the legacy of Jim Crow and slavery or implementing whatever utopian proposals manage to make it into at least partial reality. Overseas adventures are going to be hard to justify to workers whose homes are bombed-out shells and who are subject to rationing and privation (or were, recently).
This gives me an idea: will Mexico be the next one swept by the socialist wave? After all, it has a long story of socialist and charismatic leaders like Madero, Zapata, Pancho Villa...
Cuba first, because there’s already a socialist revolution that’s swept most of the island. Pancho Villa is an ally of the ASU, though…
True, and I want to see if Cuba, once the Socialist wins, will join the GDC in a Federation/International Union or something like that.
Also, if Villa is alive, this is a golden opportunity, not only to have a charismatic and widely popular hero of all Mexican people become the new head of Mexico but to spread the revolution further south, in the fertile (for socialist uprisings) lands of Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and so on...
Central America seems about as far as I can see this revolutionary wave going, especially considering how dependent those regimes were on the United States for support.
Yep, I kind off look forward to seeing the many right-wing governments of Central and South America, who were in power just because of the USA's past interference (to fight socialism), see the tides have turned, and now the left parties have the backing of the most industrialized nation of the continent...
Ehhh, founding right wing governments to fight socialism was more of a postwar/ 20s thing, wasn't it? Right now it's mostly colonial and post colonial states
Though yes seeing red america back a free/pink-red south America to the Hilt will be quite nice
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In the long term, yes. At worst, the ASU's actions will be described as "enlightened self-interest". They will certainly prioritize bringing the revolution where it would benefit the ASU's strategic interests.
True. But it might not be the whole decade. And even if there is still rebuilding work to do, if a revolution pops up in the Western Hemisphere, the Red Army will be there.
Cuba will be liberated in August. Mexico will follow after the war - that was Pancho Villa's deal.
There will be some kind of international organization (similar to the Comintern) that will include the ASU, Cuba, Haiti, Mexico, and Hawaii (and Puerto Rico if they go for independence).
It'll be a while before the ASU will be in a position to bring the Revolution south of the Darien Gap.
From what I can tell, most Central American nations didn't even have organized socialist parties at this point (including Haiti). However, that will be changing rapidly, especially when the ASU will be able to fund such parties.
89. The Huffington Massacres
…If the Memphis Uprising was a catastrophe for the White cause, it was an apocalypse for the Army of the Ohio. The Army of Memphis was rapidly consolidating its gains across southern Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama. Between this and the new advances by the Army of Knoxville, General Carleton was effectively encircled. He still held most of Kentucky and northern Tennessee, but his supply lines, already overstretched, had just been shredded…
…Carleton reacted quickly. He ordered a complete withdrawal from the front lines in Kentucky. All troops were to converge upon Nashville. From there, he planned to push south to reach Alabama, cutting through the Black Belt…
…The road to Alabama would not be easy. General Bradley was harrying his retreat, costing the Army of the Ohio much of its heavy weapons. Worse, even outside the area held by the Army of Memphis, black partisans ambushed his troops. His men began to treat any black man as a threat, which only escalated the violence. On August 19, Carleton was murdered in Campbellsville, Kentucky. The killer, Sharon Law[1], was a black girl whose parents had been murdered by White troops. Command of the Army of the Ohio passed to Brigadier Joe Huffington[2], who issued his infamous order that all blacks were to be treated as enemy combatants, regardless of age or gender. For all intents and purposes, it was an order to commit genocide…
…What followed were some of the worst atrocities of the war. Entire communities were wiped out. Anyone who interfered was dealt with in the same way. Several units refused to carry out the order, deserting or even opening fire on their former comrades. But most happily joined in the slaughter. The Huffington Massacres left thousands dead, mostly civilians…
…When news of the massacres reached General Bronstein, he was utterly enraged. All thoughts of slowly strangling the Army of the Ohio went out the window. That army had to be wiped out. He ordered the three Red armies in the theater – the Armies of Memphis, Cleveland, and Knoxville – to “destroy the Army of the Ohio by the most expedient means available to you”. Generals Taylor, Bradley, and Jones were only too happy to comply…
…Aware of what Huffington’s actions would mean for his people, General Taylor set up a defensive line from Mount Pleasant to Tullahoma, determined to halt the White retreat. General Jones advanced west from the mountains, taking Woodbury on August 27 and threatening Murfreesboro. But both of them had to be concerned with their southern flanks. As much as they wanted to prioritize defeating Huffington, they had to defend themselves from the other White armies. General Bradley, on the other hand, had no such concerns, and hurled the entire Army of Cleveland at the enemy. Chemical weapons were widely used along with devastating artillery barrages and air raids…
…Over the course of three weeks, the Army of the Ohio was systematically annihilated. General Huffington himself was captured along with the last of his troops after the fall of Nashville on September 12. However, this did not signal an end to the bloodshed. The desperation of the Whites had hardened into fanaticism. Scorched earth tactics would be the order of the day going forward. Huffington’s Order was repeated by numerous White commanders…
- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy
[1] Original character.
[2] Both IOTL and ITTL, Huffington was the founder of the Indiana KKK. Earlier in the story, he became a colonel in the Indiana National Guard and was later promoted to brigadier.
…Carleton reacted quickly. He ordered a complete withdrawal from the front lines in Kentucky. All troops were to converge upon Nashville. From there, he planned to push south to reach Alabama, cutting through the Black Belt…
…The road to Alabama would not be easy. General Bradley was harrying his retreat, costing the Army of the Ohio much of its heavy weapons. Worse, even outside the area held by the Army of Memphis, black partisans ambushed his troops. His men began to treat any black man as a threat, which only escalated the violence. On August 19, Carleton was murdered in Campbellsville, Kentucky. The killer, Sharon Law[1], was a black girl whose parents had been murdered by White troops. Command of the Army of the Ohio passed to Brigadier Joe Huffington[2], who issued his infamous order that all blacks were to be treated as enemy combatants, regardless of age or gender. For all intents and purposes, it was an order to commit genocide…
…What followed were some of the worst atrocities of the war. Entire communities were wiped out. Anyone who interfered was dealt with in the same way. Several units refused to carry out the order, deserting or even opening fire on their former comrades. But most happily joined in the slaughter. The Huffington Massacres left thousands dead, mostly civilians…
…When news of the massacres reached General Bronstein, he was utterly enraged. All thoughts of slowly strangling the Army of the Ohio went out the window. That army had to be wiped out. He ordered the three Red armies in the theater – the Armies of Memphis, Cleveland, and Knoxville – to “destroy the Army of the Ohio by the most expedient means available to you”. Generals Taylor, Bradley, and Jones were only too happy to comply…
…Aware of what Huffington’s actions would mean for his people, General Taylor set up a defensive line from Mount Pleasant to Tullahoma, determined to halt the White retreat. General Jones advanced west from the mountains, taking Woodbury on August 27 and threatening Murfreesboro. But both of them had to be concerned with their southern flanks. As much as they wanted to prioritize defeating Huffington, they had to defend themselves from the other White armies. General Bradley, on the other hand, had no such concerns, and hurled the entire Army of Cleveland at the enemy. Chemical weapons were widely used along with devastating artillery barrages and air raids…
…Over the course of three weeks, the Army of the Ohio was systematically annihilated. General Huffington himself was captured along with the last of his troops after the fall of Nashville on September 12. However, this did not signal an end to the bloodshed. The desperation of the Whites had hardened into fanaticism. Scorched earth tactics would be the order of the day going forward. Huffington’s Order was repeated by numerous White commanders…
- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy
[1] Original character.
[2] Both IOTL and ITTL, Huffington was the founder of the Indiana KKK. Earlier in the story, he became a colonel in the Indiana National Guard and was later promoted to brigadier.
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Something something Downfall Hitler yelling but it's Trotsky ranting about Carleton. I very much like the image this conjures in my head
Except this is not defeat-induced madness but righteous fury. Unlike Hitler, Bronstein has functional armies at his disposal.