Honestly I can't answer that. But I don't think they would have accepted aything at this point after all the war and FRanxe being unnable to capture it.
The Fire Never Dies: Labor's Star Ascendant
- Thread starter Meshakhad
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Counterpoint to your counterpoint: The Entente probably isn't going to negotiate immediately; they're definitely going to underestimate the scale of the turmoil in the US so they'll probably wait and hope it will just be over in a few weeks or months, and by the time they do negotiate the Russians will be coming undone at the seams, (or visibly beginning to, which would be almost as bad) strengthening the German position. And secondly, the Germans are going to have a much stronger position in the negotiations as the Entente is going to soon be running very, very short on supplies with the loss of American industry and everyone knows it. So they'll probably get something at least a little better than what you've said; no losing Alsace-Lorraine and gaining a couple of French colonies.
I just remember of the kaiserschlacht. If the Entente decides to stall and spring 1918 comes the german offensive can maybe finally brake France, capture Paris and, without the french and russians I don't think the british would want to continue at this point, expecially if a french surrender means the encirclement and destruction of the BEF, forcing a cease fire followed by peace negotiations.
45. The General Defense Committee
…The May Day Declaration is sometimes presented as the birth of the Socialist Union, but it was more akin to its conception. Debs had committed the IWW to a complete overthrow of the US government, but that still begged the question of what would come afterwards. One disadvantage of his efforts to bring together socialists and labor activists of all types was that they had many different visions of what a post-revolutionary America would look like. Some wanted to retain the old constitution with some revisions, others wanted a brand new system, or even the abolition of all central government…
…Debs wisely postponed such discussions. Instead, on May 4 he proposed to Fred Hardy that a General Defense Committee[1] be established within the IWW. The members of the GDC would be elected by the existing branches, and would be charged with organizing the revolutionary effort. After the war, a constitutional convention would be held to formalize a new government. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Debs was elected Chairman of the GDC, with direct command authority over the Red Army. His status as de facto leader of the revolution was now official…
…The GDC’s relationship with Red state governments was complicated. Not everyone in the SLP was in the IWW, after all. At times, Debs and the GDC found it difficult to exert authority over the state governments, which likely influenced aspects of the future ASU Constitution. Fortunately, the most powerful governors were either firm allies of Debs, like Seidel, or had assumed military positions and were thus subject to his military authority, like Haywood or Trautmann...
- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy
[1] IOTL, the GDC was established in 1917 (and remains in existence today) but its purpose is to organize the legal defense of the IWW.
…Debs wisely postponed such discussions. Instead, on May 4 he proposed to Fred Hardy that a General Defense Committee[1] be established within the IWW. The members of the GDC would be elected by the existing branches, and would be charged with organizing the revolutionary effort. After the war, a constitutional convention would be held to formalize a new government. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Debs was elected Chairman of the GDC, with direct command authority over the Red Army. His status as de facto leader of the revolution was now official…
…The GDC’s relationship with Red state governments was complicated. Not everyone in the SLP was in the IWW, after all. At times, Debs and the GDC found it difficult to exert authority over the state governments, which likely influenced aspects of the future ASU Constitution. Fortunately, the most powerful governors were either firm allies of Debs, like Seidel, or had assumed military positions and were thus subject to his military authority, like Haywood or Trautmann...
- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy
[1] IOTL, the GDC was established in 1917 (and remains in existence today) but its purpose is to organize the legal defense of the IWW.
I don't think that Germany has performed well enough against France to demand much territory from them, epecially not colonial territory, where with the exception of Letto-Vorbeck in east africa Germany's colonial forces performed very poorly. I think they can still gain territory in africa, i just think it would be at the expense of pre-war Belgium rather than France or Britain.
RE WWI:
Remember that the Entente does have Spain on its side (at least for now.)
IIRC, the Spanish troops ITTL were noted as poor quality or underequipped etc. I will push back against that. Not because they wouldn't be, but because IMO the Entente commanders would have examined the Spanish troops and gone 'Oh no. We're not putting them on the line. Not before they're properly trained and equipped.'
The German Spring Offensive of 1918 began March 21st. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed March 3rd. IE. The German Spring Offensive is only really enabled by the end of Russian participation in the War.
IMO:
2AR (2nd American Revolution) means that the Entente/Russia at first go 'Hold fast whilst they sort it out'. Then when it becomes clear that it won't be sorted out... The Entente do know that they still hold the long term advantage. They're the ones with the Sea Lanes and the Colonial Empires. They do have the manpower to tap. They're not the ones starving.
Also recall that the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is still extant at this time, and the main driver for its ending (wanting closer relations with the USA) ... Well. So I can definitely see some horse-trading with the Japanese to get them more fully on board (Eg: Putting bodies on the line.)
And I'm pretty sure the Ottoman Empire is undergoing its collapse as per OTL.
Will the Entente panic? Yes. Do I think they'll panic enough to seek terms? Maybe. Do I think they'll accept any terms that are offered? No.
Remember that the Entente does have Spain on its side (at least for now.)
IIRC, the Spanish troops ITTL were noted as poor quality or underequipped etc. I will push back against that. Not because they wouldn't be, but because IMO the Entente commanders would have examined the Spanish troops and gone 'Oh no. We're not putting them on the line. Not before they're properly trained and equipped.'
The German Spring Offensive of 1918 began March 21st. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed March 3rd. IE. The German Spring Offensive is only really enabled by the end of Russian participation in the War.
IMO:
2AR (2nd American Revolution) means that the Entente/Russia at first go 'Hold fast whilst they sort it out'. Then when it becomes clear that it won't be sorted out... The Entente do know that they still hold the long term advantage. They're the ones with the Sea Lanes and the Colonial Empires. They do have the manpower to tap. They're not the ones starving.
Also recall that the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is still extant at this time, and the main driver for its ending (wanting closer relations with the USA) ... Well. So I can definitely see some horse-trading with the Japanese to get them more fully on board (Eg: Putting bodies on the line.)
And I'm pretty sure the Ottoman Empire is undergoing its collapse as per OTL.
Will the Entente panic? Yes. Do I think they'll panic enough to seek terms? Maybe. Do I think they'll accept any terms that are offered? No.
At most, the Ottomans could hang on to National Pact borders here, though that might be debatable here.
Russia is.
Are you forgetting the state of France and Russia? The germans are in bad shape yes, but I highly doubt the russians can stay in the war at all. If Kerensky is dumb enough to try to attack it ends in disaster for Russia which likely means more territory for Germany, strengthening their position in the negotiation table. The british are the ones who don't have that much to worry about besides the possible encirclement of the BEF after a french surrender and the MKF harassing Dover Patrol, Harwich Force and cross channel shipping.
Besides all that the supply situation of the Entente is really going to tank. How are they going to hold the germans when artillary ammunition runs out?
I know Germany isn't in the best position on the home front but I belive they can hold just long enough, provided that the government grants the SPD and other minor parties want for their support for the war effort, to go to the nagotiation table on relative even terms.
Most of it isn't. The situation in Petrograd and a couple of other large industrial cities with hundreds of thousands of refugees in them was very bad, given the decreasing agricultural output and most of all the faltering transport infrastructure. The troops were in varying conditions of supply, depending on which front we're talking about. Most of Russia's population lived in regions which were self-sustaining, while Germany relied on imports. Russia had always been a food exporter, Germany an importer. And Germany's food production was decreasing, too, due to OHL focusing everything on war production.
So far, if I am correctly informed, the PRovisional Government is still led by Prince Lvov. Will Kerensky come to power at all?
There is an argument why he would be less likely to attack ITTL, too: the situation of the Entente is less optimistic than IOTL, so there is a better argument for a "Russian way".
This "just long enough" might be the time in which the Bulgarians and the Ottomans falter on their fronts, though. They were doing badly, and without significant US help.
The bulgarians could cease offensive operations and justhold the line since IIRC their front with Greece was mainly mountanous terrain. The ottoman sitiuation is another matter, maybe they can pull back and form their version of a Hindenburg line or maybe they'll crash and burn making Bulgaria more likely to also surrender.
Oh yeah, Japan is going to do very well ittl and will definitely be at the big boy table during peace negotiations rather than get pushed out.
Without Wilson there to push the issue a league of nations is pretty unlikely*, and so no racial equality proposal for japan and china to get burned by.
*unless perhaps it is in the form of an explicitly anti-communist alliance, essentially becoming the congress of Vienna 2.0 in its counter-revolutionary stance
They have performed "well" in France, though; enough that if the Entente enters into negotiations, the French will be admitting that they'll be unable to throw the Germans out of the land they've already occupied, with a tactit understanding (by the Entente) that the Germans would be able to win the Western Front due to American supplies being completely shut off, (There's a really good chance they couldn't, but importantly the Entente doesn't know that) so they're going to give the Germans a better peace than you'd think, out of fear that the Germans would just conquer the entirety of France (and the Iberian Peninsula along with Italy) and gain much better terms then (with the threat of marshalling the power of the entirety of Continental Europe to build a navy that can beat the entire RN or at the very least starve the British into submission).
Yes, you and I (and the Germans) know that can't and won't happen, but the Entente doesn't, and the German position will look much, much stronger than it actually is, meaning it might be a light peace but it'll be one that definitely favors the Germans. The Entente is going to give up land in the colonies, if only because it'll be in return for the Germans leaving the land they've already occupied in France and Belgium, which a "status quo" (not ante bellum; there's almost no way the Germans would accept that since) peace would let them retain.
Also, I personally favor the name of the new country to be something like the "American People's Socialist Union" or the "American Workers' Socialist Union" as a massive way to show that the country is for the people, not just the moneyed class. Or even just for the individual states, as the federal government is probably going to be stronger (and more democratic) than the old government.
People's Republic of America? Hey, why not? It's still somewhat as "chantable" as U-S-A!
The only part of the country that may seriously oppose the Second Revolution is the South, and that's mostly among the Anglophile elites who might just run like hell to Canada or the Caribbean with all their gold and silver, rather than put up a fight.
The only part of the country that may seriously oppose the Second Revolution is the South, and that's mostly among the Anglophile elites who might just run like hell to Canada or the Caribbean with all their gold and silver, rather than put up a fight.
APSU is a bit much. I might consider "American People's Union", but I think ASU is likely to stick. You are correct that the states will be weakened.
The Southern whites are, unfortunately, among the least radicalized. As mentioned before, the preeminence of race in Southern society made it difficult for the IWW to organize there. Consequently, Southern whites - including those of the working class - will be the main source of recruits for the White forces.
The vast majority of blacks are in support of the Revolution, and black partisans are becoming a serious problem across the South, particularly Texas and Louisiana.
46. The Midwest Theater
…Despite his organizational issues, General Liggett felt that he had to act. The Illinois National Guard were largely loyal to Wilson, but the Army of Chicago was now advancing. With the fall of Rock Island, they were now well supplied with artillery. To make matters worse, Oklahoma had gone Red. Kansas and Missouri were threatened on two fronts…
…In retrospect, the best approach for Liggett would have been to move south against Oklahoma. They were isolated, and Liggett could have drawn support from Texas and Arkansas. This would have allowed for secure lines of communication with the rest of the South. However, Liggett judged that the Army of Chicago was vulnerable. They had not yet been tested in pitched battle. Defeating them would also open the road to Chicago itself, possibly resulting in the capture of Eugene Debs…
…On May 22, the Army of the Plains crossed into Missouri. Their objective was St. Louis. The city itself was under Red control, but they were under siege from the Missouri and Illinois National Guard. Liggett planned to take St. Louis and then push north along the Mississippi to retake Rock Island. Unfortunately, his logistical problems continued. Sabotage of the railways remained widespread. Most of his troops would have to march to St. Louis. The same was not true of the Army of Chicago. Reinforced by elements of the Wisconsin Red Guard, they drove the Illinois National Guard from Springfield on May 28. By June 2, they were in St. Louis…
…Liggett was in a bind. He was not confident that he could take St. Louis by force. Instead, he reinforced the Missouri National Guard outside the city, while he dispatched Colonel George Marshall[1] south to secure Cairo, IL, now held by the Illinois National Guard. In mid-June, Liggett received unexpected reinforcements, but they were not reinforcements he wanted. While Liggett had been focused on Chicago, Red forces from Minnesota and Wisconsin had taken the Dakotas. Liggett’s reinforcements were what remained of the Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota National Guard…
- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy
[1] That is indeed George C. Marshall. IOTL, he was reassigned from Liggett’s staff to General J. Franklin Bell. ITTL, he ends up back with Liggett when war is declared.
…In retrospect, the best approach for Liggett would have been to move south against Oklahoma. They were isolated, and Liggett could have drawn support from Texas and Arkansas. This would have allowed for secure lines of communication with the rest of the South. However, Liggett judged that the Army of Chicago was vulnerable. They had not yet been tested in pitched battle. Defeating them would also open the road to Chicago itself, possibly resulting in the capture of Eugene Debs…
…On May 22, the Army of the Plains crossed into Missouri. Their objective was St. Louis. The city itself was under Red control, but they were under siege from the Missouri and Illinois National Guard. Liggett planned to take St. Louis and then push north along the Mississippi to retake Rock Island. Unfortunately, his logistical problems continued. Sabotage of the railways remained widespread. Most of his troops would have to march to St. Louis. The same was not true of the Army of Chicago. Reinforced by elements of the Wisconsin Red Guard, they drove the Illinois National Guard from Springfield on May 28. By June 2, they were in St. Louis…
…Liggett was in a bind. He was not confident that he could take St. Louis by force. Instead, he reinforced the Missouri National Guard outside the city, while he dispatched Colonel George Marshall[1] south to secure Cairo, IL, now held by the Illinois National Guard. In mid-June, Liggett received unexpected reinforcements, but they were not reinforcements he wanted. While Liggett had been focused on Chicago, Red forces from Minnesota and Wisconsin had taken the Dakotas. Liggett’s reinforcements were what remained of the Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota National Guard…
- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy
[1] That is indeed George C. Marshall. IOTL, he was reassigned from Liggett’s staff to General J. Franklin Bell. ITTL, he ends up back with Liggett when war is declared.
Whats the red/white status of Michigan? Its still a fairly rural area but the industrial citys like Detroit, the mining areas in the UP, and the big shipping ports will probably be leaning red.
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I'll go into more detail later, but while Michigan was White at the start, the Reds quickly took over most of its major cities. Governor Sleeper saw that he was in danger of being surrounded and opted to run (with the Michigan National Guard) rather than stay and fight.
Just some pieces of propaganda that are or have been probably floating around iitl
