…Historians have frequently debated the degree to which the violence of 1916 actually affected the outcome. Most agree that the Presidential election was relatively unaffected, as political violence was naturally most powerful in areas already dominated by one faction. Estimates of the “true” vote show that many states would have been won by narrower margins, but few would have actually flipped…
…For the Republicans, 1916 was a disaster. Many of their former strongholds flipped red. Elihu Root only carried California, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming. For the first time since the Civil War, a third party had won second place. Debs and the SPA expanded beyond their 1912 victories, capturing Pennsylvania and Illinois, and coming surprisingly close to an outright win…
…However, it cannot be denied that violence affected the vote on a local level. The most obvious example was the assassination of William W. Farmer, the SLP candidate for governor of Indiana, a week before Election Day, and too late for a new candidate to take his place. Despite the assurance that a new election would be held in January, enough voters moved away from Farmer that the Democratic Congressman John A.M. Adair won[1]. Numerous other attempts, some successful, most not, were made across the country. The New York Journal wrote that “the nation’s new leadership will be stained in blood,” little realizing what was to come…
…Given the multipolar nature of the violence, little if any effort was made to challenge the results. Democrats, Republicans, and Socialists were all sitting on victories that were questionable, and no one wanted to open that Pandora’s box. For the SLP, this was a victory. They had expanded their reach in Congress and state legislatures, expanding their representation in the Senate. Perhaps more importantly, even with the tragic loss of Farmer, the SLP had secured six more governorships and several mayorships. The big news was Meyer London winning New York, but Illinois, Minnesota, Montana, Washington, and West Virginia all had socialist governors (and a particularly radical one in Washington Governor-elect Bill Haywood). There seemed nothing stopping the socialist tide…
- From 1916: The Tinder Year by Barbara Tuchman
[1] IOTL, Adair narrowly lost to the Republican James P. Goodrich.