The Fidel Castro Assassination

According to "The Dark Side of Camelot" the original plan for the bay of pigs operation was for Fidel Castro to be killed before the invasion. Let's say Castro gets killed right before the invasion as per the plan. What happens next?
 
Perhaps Che steps up to the plate?

If you're going to kill Castro in an AH, I would rather see someone use one of the CIA's hairbrained plots like the poison coated cigars or the brightly painted explosive sea shell.

Or you could use my personal favorite...... (this is a true OTL plot) convince the religious Cuban populace he's the Antichrist, and then stage the Second Coming of Jesus Christ by hiring actors to play Jesus and using submarines to shoot off missiles and blast trumpet sounds. (I'm not making this up! They actually considered this! :D)
 
I see a kind of civil war between Che and Raul, so by the time the ill fated exile brigade lands, cuba is in the middle of a civil war, and so the might just be able to gain a foothold and announce that they are the legitimate government of cuba. At which point the US interevenes in what is now a 3 way Cuban Civil War. By mid 62 the anticommunists have more or less seized power.
 
I see a kind of civil war between Che and Raul, so by the time the ill fated exile brigade lands, cuba is in the middle of a civil war, and so the might just be able to gain a foothold and announce that they are the legitimate government of cuba. At which point the US interevenes in what is now a 3 way Cuban Civil War. By mid 62 the anticommunists have more or less seized power.


I would love to know the facts, which that assessment was made on.


Raul Castro introduced Che to Fidel. He was his closest companion, a lot closer then Che and Fidel who were close. So Cuba disintegrating in a Civil War is nearly impossible unless Raul surrenders which he wouldn't. Raul will take over as Commander in Chief as he always was the first in line after Fidel. He would order the attack and the Bay of Pigs would still fail. Raul is not the better-known Castro that’s for sure. However he is the Defence Minister and his skills for organisation are well know. Basically the Army will follow his orders just like if they were Fidel's.

In my opinion the operation will fail regardless of Fidel’s fate. The Cuban people had hardly escaped the dictatorship of Batista and the “Revolution” was massively popular at the time. Maybe if Fidel is dead the Militia won’t be wasted so cheaply in attacking the well-defended beachhead. The Cuban Exiles were hardly seen as saviours by the people as the US government predicted. The general opinion was that these Exiles were just American puppets ready if succeeding to turn back the clock on Cuba. That’s not very enticing.

To stick my neck out I think after killing Fidel the US would of made their worst mistake in Latin America in the post ww2 world. Castro in 1961 was a national hero to the average Cuban regardless and now the US has made him a Martyr causing the Cuban troops and Pilots which fought very hard in OTL to fight even harder then they did in OTL to defend Cuban soil.

Killing Fidel is not a way to make the plan succeed. It was the actual plan, which was a failure. The US pilots missed Cuba's fighter planes and they paid heavily for it. It would have to be a different bay of pigs to succeed. Killing Fidel would just have made a bad situation worse.
 
You're probably right, Fidel's death wouldn't lead to a sucessful Bay of Pig's unless the whole leadership goes with him, (and even then its near aquatic mammal unlikely) that plan was awful. The only way the communist lose power is if there's some kind of power struggle. The Cubans probably fight harder, and the administration is very similar to OTL. Unless you have a different idea of how much worse killing Fidel can get.
 
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