alternatehistory.com

One of the more common tropes in alternate histor is that the Spanish Empire will fall. It doesn't matter if it's Napoleon invading Spain; an Empire of the Indies that then proceeds to conquer the Philippines; of a vengful British North America that conquers the damn place because as everyone knows, America and Britain combined mean the world is pink forever. [1]

This overlooks, at least to me, a couple of different things. First, the devastation of the Napoleonic wars on Spain. Few countries went through as bitter a conflict, with as divisive effects, over the course of the period. And yet even so, it was able to govern significant chunks of the New World until the 1820s and 1830s, not losing Cuba and Puerto Rico until 1898. There were of course Spanish attempts to retake Mexico as late as 1829, after all.

Moreover, reading about the independence movements suggsts that in many cases their victories were a near run thing. The monarchy had a substantial base of support among even creoles, after all. And I think it's worth noting that the first sparks of independence came when people protested Joseph's appointment as the king, and came in the form of assertions of loyalty to the Bourbon monarchs.

(Yes there was Miranda, but it's worth noting he didn't have that much support.)

Finally, there is the issue that the Bourbon empire actually prospered in the last half of the 18th century. How much this matters is unclear, but I think it needs to be given some weight.

[1] Though not the good kind of pink.
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