The Fate of the Spanish Empire in most TLs?


I still think that the time from Charles IV to Ferdinand VII was the best and last opportunity for that.


Actually, I think that the best chance would be with someone other than Charles III succeeding Ferdinand VI in 1759, or Ferdinand VI not being a maniac depressive who died prematurely. Yes, Charles was a very competent king who modernized the crown, made many needed reforms and expanded the power of Spain to the point that it could be argued that the Spanish Empire was more powerful in 1775 than it had been in 1575 -in absolute if not relative terms-; but it was not enough. Towards the end of his long life Charles became increasingly intolerant and repressive, and his heir Charles IV could charitably be described as "well-intentioned incompetent", who was too old and indecisive when he arose to the throne in 1788. It was impossible for Spain to weather the storm that would start in 1789 with someone as spineless and incompetent as Charles IV in charge.

Ferdinand, however, was a prudent and progressive man who started a trend of reforms in the empire, and, more importantly, decided that neutrality was the way to go for the Empire, refusing to be entangled in, for example the Seven Years War. In the final half of the century, Spain should have become a second Britain, using its relative isolation from the european continent to forget about european adventures and focus in the empire and its modernization; and, like Britain, ruthlessly using diplomacy and realpolitik to ally with whomever was the most beneficious. With Ferdinand having lived longer and being succeeded by his son, Spain would be in a better shape to weather the 1789 storm.

Re. Aranda's federalization scheme; it would be very beneficial in the short term, but, being a spaniard, I know that our innate cainism would make it fail ultimately. You cannot give four spaniards absolute rule over half of the world and expect that they will not start bickering about god knows what idiocy. :D
 
The problem is that the Constitution of Cadiz was not very popular neither in Spain nor in the Americas.
In order to have a lasting surviving Spanish Empire you probably need reforms to happen earlier. The idea of Federalizing after US independence is a good start. If that is followed by a progressive constitution, like Cadiz in each new kingdom it could work.

Why was it unpopular and why did it ultimately fail?

Given the timing, it would not surprise me if the victors over Napoleon had crushed it for interfering with the Divine Right of Kings. If that were the case, perhaps they could be persuaded to relent on the grounds it would prevent a US-style revolution in the colonies?

However, if it failed because nobody wanted it, perhaps it could be tinkered with a bit to remove some of the more unpopular aspects.
 
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