I have noticed that it a lot of people on this site seem to hold the view that if the USA had not seized the Philippines, the Spanish would sell these possessions to Germany or lose them in a war with Japan.
Is this really the most likely scenario? I know that Germany was interested in some Pacific islands but was any country seriously planning to take the Philippines, forcefully or otherwise? While I can see the Spaniards being willing to accept Cuban independence, I don't think the they wanted to let such a prestigious colony as the Philippines go (even if it was draining to them) especially after having lost so much imperial prestige already.
I feel that this issue is often barely given attention in timelines and I'd really like to know what other people think about how this would have played out.
Is this really the most likely scenario? I know that Germany was interested in some Pacific islands but was any country seriously planning to take the Philippines, forcefully or otherwise? While I can see the Spaniards being willing to accept Cuban independence, I don't think the they wanted to let such a prestigious colony as the Philippines go (even if it was draining to them) especially after having lost so much imperial prestige already.
I feel that this issue is often barely given attention in timelines and I'd really like to know what other people think about how this would have played out.