The Fate of the Spanish East Indies in the early 20th Century

I have noticed that it a lot of people on this site seem to hold the view that if the USA had not seized the Philippines, the Spanish would sell these possessions to Germany or lose them in a war with Japan.

Is this really the most likely scenario? I know that Germany was interested in some Pacific islands but was any country seriously planning to take the Philippines, forcefully or otherwise? While I can see the Spaniards being willing to accept Cuban independence, I don't think the they wanted to let such a prestigious colony as the Philippines go (even if it was draining to them) especially after having lost so much imperial prestige already.

I feel that this issue is often barely given attention in timelines and I'd really like to know what other people think about how this would have played out.
 
It would have been balkanized, the revolution has gone balkanized when the Spanish had lost their control outside of manila, perhaps the Spanish might recognize the independence or give parts of the Philippines to their allies like the French.
 
It would have been balkanized, the revolution has gone balkanized when the Spanish had lost their control outside of manila, perhaps the Spanish might recognize the independence or give parts of the Philippines to their allies like the French.


I can imagine them requesting help from the French. The two nations had cooperated in Morocco and Cochin China already. Trading away colonial territory does seem to have been rare however. Perhaps the French would get special privileges in the Philippines but territory? I'm not so sure that would be preferable to independence.

But what degree of control can the Spanish retain by this point? It's clear that the situation was getting very bad though probably not quite as dangerous as what was going on in Cuba thanks to the greater isolation of the Philippine archipelago. Additionally, Spain's already considerable technological advantage relative to rebels should be expected to increase as time went on. They would soon be able to bring forth machine guns, motor vehicles, and even airplanes among other technologies unavailable to the rebels. It seems likely that the Spanish would also have been willing to resort to extreme measures, including chemical weapons, as they did in the Rif war when that got desperate.

Does anyone know what the Spanish were really planning to do in the Philippines on the eve of the Spanish American war?
 
Spanish Plans for PI?

IIRC they had lost control of the bulk of the rural populations & were penned up in some of the cities & some non rebellious islands. ie: When the US fleet arrived at Manilia there was a rebel army outside the city blocking acess to northern Luzon. As Chris wrote, not as bad as Cuba, but still bad.

Plans were to somehow defeat the rebel armies. Tho its not clear to me exactly how that would be accomplished.
 
IIRC they had lost control of the bulk of the rural populations & were penned up in some of the cities & some non rebellious islands. ie: When the US fleet arrived at Manilia there was a rebel army outside the city blocking acess to northern Luzon. As Chris wrote, not as bad as Cuba, but still bad.

Plans were to somehow defeat the rebel armies. Tho its not clear to me exactly how that would be accomplished.

It does appear that while the Spanish could not oust the rebels from their strongholds, neither could the rebels yet remove the Spaniards from theirs on their own. It is possible that Spain would temporarily hold fast in secure areas for as long as a few years until it was able to build up a force strong enough to make a renewed attempt, one in which as much modern firepower as possible could be brought to bear.

A strong offensive would also be possible if Spain were to accept Cuban independence thereby allowing them to transfer large numbers of resources, including many troops already experienced in counter-insurgency and additional patrol boats to catch arms smugglers, to the Philippines. I think this could potentially make a significant difference.


Of course, if France were to join in to rescue Spain, it is very likely that most of the major rebel forces could be destroyed. I don't know what France would demand in exchange for this but calling on it for help would surely be undesirable. There is also Germany, which I can imagine as siting the Spanish in exchange for the sale of the Mariana and Marshall islands (but not Guam). If selling those remote islands to some other power is Spain's absolute last resort, then I think it would probably do so seeing as it apparently had very little interest in these territories without the Philippines.
 
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It does appear that while the Spanish could not oust the rebels from their strongholds, neither could the rebels yet remove the Spaniards from theirs on their own. It is possible that Spain would temporarily hold fast in secure areas for as long as a few years until it was able to build up a force strong enough to make a renewed attempt, one in which as much modern firepower as possible could be brought to bear.

A strong offensive would also be possible if Spain were to accept Cuban independence thereby allowing them to transfer large numbers of resources, including many troops already experienced in counter-insurgency and additional patrol boats to catch arms smugglers, to the Philippines. I think this could potentially make a significant difference.


Of course, if France were to join in to rescue Spain, it is very likely that most of the major rebel forces could be destroyed. I don't know what France would demand in exchange for this but calling on it for help would surely be undesirable. There is also Germany, which I can imagine as siting the Spanish in exchange for the sale of the Mariana and Marshall islands (but not Guam). If selling those remote islands to some other power is Spain's absolute last resort, then I think it would probably do so seeing as it apparently had very little interest in these territories without the Philippines.

I think the Spanish would have accepted the German deal regarding the Philippines, they wanted to buy it, Philippines was pain in the ass for the Spanish to keep.
 
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