The Fate of Russia after a 1914 CP victory

What happens to Russia?

  • The Czar cedes some powers and the country becomes a constitutional monarchy

    Votes: 13 41.9%
  • Revolution leads to a democratic liberal government

    Votes: 3 9.7%
  • Revolution leads to a democratic Social Democratic government

    Votes: 3 9.7%
  • Revolution leads to a Fascist/reactionary/military government

    Votes: 5 16.1%
  • Revolution leads to a Communist government

    Votes: 7 22.6%

  • Total voters
    31

Tannhäuser

Banned
I've looked through the forums, and while the "CP Victory Once and For All" thread is very helpful and definitive with regard to the immediate outcome of an early CP victory, there doesn't seem to be much discussion about what happens to AH and Russia in the years to come. France would probably remain democratic, and there's no reason that Germany would collapse or something, but Russia and AH are both highly unstable and while an early peace will prolong their lives, how much time do they have left? And what happens when time runs out?

I've divided this into two questions, one about Russia and the other about AH so that discussion and polling will be simpler.

It seems likely that Russia would not go Communist since
a. Much of the suffering in Russia was because of a four-year war
b. The liberals and centrists were discredited because of their continued support for the war even after the February Revolution.

But what does happen? Please don't just answer the poll, also post your opinion so you can elaborate and support it.

edit: Yeah, I forgot an "other" option. Woops.
 
It seems likely that Russia would not go Communist since
a. Much of the suffering in Russia was because of a four-year war
b. The liberals and centrists were discredited because of their continued support for the war even after the February Revolution.

But what does happen? Please don't just answer the poll, also post your opinion so you can elaborate and support it.

The failure of WW1 would be another humiliating blow to the Tsar, which would be enough to overthrow the monarchy - again. With that context, the way I see it is that, barring ASB events, it would be very hard for Russia not to go Communist.
 
I think you might see the czar becoming a much reduced figure head with some military strong man and or fascist regime that had made some deal with the upper class / industrialists. Being helped out by both Germany and the Allies to some degree as no one wants russia to collapse entirely.
 

Tannhäuser

Banned
I do see how the defeat could lead to a revolution - the real one happened because of suffering caused by the war, this one could happen because of the humiliation of losing it. The incompetence of the government and the Czar might be enough to provoke an uprising. If there were a revolution immediately following the war, however, I'm pretty sure it would result in the liberals or Mensheviks taking power. As it was, the liberals had it for a while, and only lost it because of their support for continuing the war. With no war, they wouldn't lose support, and we'd have a democratic government resulting in Liberal or Menshevik victory. The Bolsheviks wouldn't take over because the war would have ended, and the Whites/militarists/fascists/reactionaries wouldn't appear because the Bolsheviks wouldn't take over.

So if there is a revolution immediately following the war, I think we'd get the Kadets or Mensheviks. Would there be a revolution immediately after the war, though? And if there were, what would happen in the long term with a democratic Russia?
 
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