The fate of Mongolia without Baron von Ungern-Sternberg's invasion?

CaliGuy

Banned
Thanks for this info! :)

Also, though, please keep in mind that the PRC was only partially successful at Sinicizing Xinjiang in our TL; thus, is a Mongolia which is more than, say, 50% Chinese actually realistic?
Or does Mongolia's smaller population in comparison to Xinjiang make all the difference in regards to this?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Don't count out the Soviets. The red Mongol Army was a reaction to the Chinese occupation of Mongolia, not Sternberg's, Sternberg just happened to drive the Chinese out first. The red Mongols would probably have invaded Outer Mongolia with Soviet backing expelling the Chinese. The Chinese position in Mongolia was not that strong, if Sternberg's ragtag band of fleeing White troops could expel them, so could Sükhbaatar, Danzan and Choibalsan.
 
Hm. That raises the question: Does Mongolia align with the Soviets after declaring independence after Beiyang falls? And if so, do they do so as Communists (kinda doubt this) or as nebulously leftist nationalists like in Sinkiang during its period of being under Soviet influence?

fasquardon

As yoursworstnightmare said the whole thing was already ongoing even before Baron Ungern come to Mongolia in the autumn of 1920's.
After XU Shuzeng occupied Khuree, there was formed several underground organization. Two of them merged in January, 1920 and formed Mongolian People's Party (future Communist party of Mongolia, ironically they didn't think themselves that way). In July they reached Irkutsk then visited Moskow. Soviets initially promised to provide money and weapons as well as train troops. However they were initially not promised direct military help. This all happened before Baron Ungern.
When Mongolian's started so called 1921's revolution (actually it was movement to free Mongolia from Chinese and White Russians) they first freed Kyakhta which was occupied by Chinese. During Communist Era, this battle was greatly glorified and as a kid I believed only 400 mongolian troops defeated 10K chinese troops. However later historians claimed that first Russian artillery attacked Chinese position from its border. After Chinese defense became chaotic due to artillery attacks, Mongolian troops attacked and claimed victory. Some historians also speculate that there was many Russian troops dressed as Mongolians.
Soviets already messed in Mongolia even before Baron Ungern, so if Xu Shuzeng is forced to retreat due to fall of Beyang Government then scenario will go same as above.
So end result is same as OTL.
Moreover it wasn't only Ungern come to Mongolia. There was many retreating White Russians came to Mongolia through Western border as well as Northern Border. So basically White Russians would have come to Mongolia regardless of Baron Ungern.
 
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I don't doubt that Mongolians wanted independence and could (at least de facto) achieve it even without the Soviets *as long as China was weak.* The point is, China would not stay weak forever.

Not "as long as China was weak", but " as long as China weaker than Soviets". The point is unless you are stronger than Soviets, independent anti-Chinese minded Mongolia will come under Soviets influence and will get independence after WWII.
 
Or does Mongolia's smaller population in comparison to Xinjiang make all the difference in regards to this?

So you are assuming if whole Mongolia becomes part of China.
If PRC created as OTL, then IMO Outer and Inner Mongolia would have been merged and created Mongolian autonomous region.
In 50's Chinese had 1.5 million mongolians. Add 900K Outer Mongolians and total number would have been 2.4 million mongolians. Inner Mongolia had 4.5 million Chinese. This means this ATL Mongolian autonomous region will have 7 million population, of which 2.4 million is Mongolians.
The point is not about Mongolia had lower or larger number than this or that etnics. Han Chinese already outnumbered Mongolians in Greater Mongolia since mid 1800's.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
So you are assuming if whole Mongolia becomes part of China.
If PRC created as OTL, then IMO Outer and Inner Mongolia would have been merged and created Mongolian autonomous region.
In 50's Chinese had 1.5 million mongolians. Add 900K Outer Mongolians and total number would have been 2.4 million mongolians. Inner Mongolia had 4.5 million Chinese. This means this ATL Mongolian autonomous region will have 7 million population, of which 2.4 million is Mongolians.
The point is not about Mongolia had lower or larger number than this or that etnics. Han Chinese already outnumbered Mongolians in Greater Mongolia since mid 1800's.
Good points! :)

However, I am nevertheless still especially interested in Outer Mongolia here considering that Outer Mongolia is a separate country right now in our TL.
 
Good points! :)

However, I am nevertheless still especially interested in Outer Mongolia here considering that Outer Mongolia is a separate country right now in our TL.


If for only Outer Mongolia, then, Xinjiang could be good example. Han Chinese and Mongolians population ratio could be 50/50, or around 3million each by now.
 
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