The Fate of Japanese Asia without a Soviet intervention?

Now, assuming a scenario in which the Soviets are unable to intervene in Asia (Germany holding out for another year or two perhaps) and assuming no Japanese surrender what would be the likely course of the war on the mainland? I would presume that the US blockade would keep support from islands to a minimum and of course the Chinese would still be receiving lend-lease aid. So how long could the Japanese be expected to hold out in this situation?

Is there a possibility of a US invasion of Korea?
 
Perhaps, but without a Soviet intervention in China, that would mean an American invasion of the Japanese mainland, otherwise known as Operation Downfall. All US and allied forces are on this D-Day-surpassing invasion. Without a Soviet intervention prompting fears of Communist influence in Asia, Korea is not even a blip on the American radar. I guess if the Chinese pushed Japan back hard enough, they could enter the Korean Peninsula. If they do that, they could hold it to ransom, threatening to annex it into China if the Japanese don't relinquish control over Formosa (Taiwan). The Chinese would also have given the peninsula over to the Americans.
 

thorr97

Banned
threadnecromancer,

I don't think it'd have to extend the Great Patriotic War to keep the Red Army out of Manchukuo and northern China. Stalin could just be a touch more paranoid that the WAllies were requesting the Soviets join in against the Japanese in order to weaken his troop numbers in Eastern Europe as part of an invasion plan of theirs. Or the Red Army could've suffered slightly higher combat losses that left it just a tad too weak have spared those troops. Or perhaps the deals the WAllies were willing to make with Uncle Joe just weren't juicy enough for him to agree. The end result being no Red Army attack on the Imperial Japanese Army across the Soviet's far eastern borders.

I still think the two Atom Bombs would've been enough to have pushed the Japanese into acceptance of their defeat.

For the sake of argument though, let's say it didn't. Or that the Emperor's Surrender Recordings were successfully intercepted and destroyed by LTG Mori resulting in a coup that ended any immediate hopes of surrender. Then, without any third Bomb being immediately initiated over any Japanese target, the Imperial War Council - reformed with some new faces on it - convinces itself that the Bombs were but a "one off" and that Japan could, somehow, endure any more the US came up with - if it ever could.

Thus plans for Downfall continue. In the meantime however, the naval blockade of the Japanese home islands continues to tighten and thus prevent the shipment of foodstuffs in too many regions of Japan. Even today, cargo ships are a preferred means of getting foodstuffs to quite a few Japanese towns otherwise lacking sufficient road or rail connections. In the summer of 1945 it was even worse. Stop those coastal transport ships and famine will quickly become "a thing" for the Japanese by the fall of 1945. It certainly would've settled in by November of that year.

Perhaps the Japanese would've come to their sense by then. Perhaps the Allies would've realized that the blockade would be better for them than feeding entire divisions of Allied troops into the killing grounds the Japanese had made of all the viable landing sites on Kyushu.
 
...
I still think the two Atom Bombs would've been enough to have pushed the Japanese into acceptance of their defeat.

...

Core for another Plutonium bomb was enroute & could be easily been ready the first week of September. Cores for at least four more were under construction & would have been sent in serial as soon as each available. Possibly the last shipped at the end of November. Thats the low number taken from Rhoades 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb'. The theoretical capacity of the Haniford facility was much higher & one or two more may have been available in December.
 
Don't forget that Indian and Chinese armies were also advancing in Asia. A British Empire advance into Thailand and Malaya could have flipped the Thais and liberated Singapore, and the Chinese were in the process of liberating Guanxi.
 

Wallet

Banned
I know this opinion isnt widely shared, but I don't think the US would have needed to invade the Japanese mainland. The Japanese were on the brink of total starvation. An extra 6 months and you'll see a massive famine killing thousands if not millions. Plus the blockade and firebombing that killed way more then the Atomic Bombs ever did. Yes, the radicals were in charge and wouldn't let the others even consider surrender. They even tried to overthrow the Emperor. But would they still be in charge after a few more months?

Regardless, South Asia is going to be liberated. The Vietnamese rebels under Ho Chi Minh were being well armed by US airdrops and were about to liberate Vietnam. The Chinese were gaining ground as the Japanese continue to withdraw troops for other the mainland.

It's total ASB for the Japanese to hold out an extra year and not be invaded, but I do believe the Chinese could have kicked out the Japanese from mainland China and even invade Taiwan with allied assistance.

If Japan lasts until August 1947, all they will control with be the main islands and Korea. Maybe Taiwan.
 
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