The fate of Indonesia and the Philippines without European colonialism and imperialism?

CaliGuy

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What would the fate of Indonesia and the Philippines have been without European colonialism and imperialism?

Would these countries have still eventually gotten unified? Or would they have remained a bunch of small, independent states?

Any thoughts on this?
 
What would the fate of Indonesia and the Philippines have been without European colonialism and imperialism?

Would these countries have still eventually gotten unified? Or would they have remained a bunch of small, independent states?

Any thoughts on this?
1.Luzon would be divided between the Majapahit successor and the Bruneians
2. both Aceh and Mataram/Demak has a chance to be the successor of Majapahit..
3. Brunei has a chance to be the superpower..
 
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What would the fate of Indonesia and the Philippines have been without European colonialism and imperialism?

Would these countries have still eventually gotten unified? Or would they have remained a bunch of small, independent states?

Any thoughts on this?
I tend to think without the unifying factor of Europe being dicks to them that especially where Islam and other faiths meet that you will see separate states
 
With 400 years of time it's possible for one state to become the hegemon, but IMO fairly unlikely that there'll be a mostly unified archipelago under one nation state. The biggest difference will be the truncated role of the Javanese. Always the demographic powerhouse, Java under Mataram was very unlikely to become a sea going power. If it collapses and is replaced by a coastal force, perhaps Banten or more likely something based in Surabaya, then perhaps. I'm skeptical though.

In modern terms it's impossible to build a single nation state in the archipelago without Java, given the numbers, and if Java is not naval it cannot dominate the other islands. Or at least these are the most likely dynamics, always possible for other things to occur.
 
Actually upon further thought it probably is possible for a non-Javanese power to unite* the archipelago, but it depends very much on Java being very disunited for a long period of time. Pre and post European interference Java and Nusantara in general often trended towards disunity, due to the geography of mountains, jungles, islands, and sufficient fertility to support centres of power in lots of places. This is a problem for creating unitary states, but the examples of Majapahit and Srivijaya show that the way to do it is through a system of vassal states with considerable internal autonomy. It's not hard to imagine that if Java is disunited that one of several states, be it Brunei, Banten (my favourite), or perhaps a Malayan state may well over the course of the 17th and 18th centuries establish such a hegemony. Java being disunited is of course quite easy, just take the example of late Mataram and its successors, and keeping it that way is something that anyone could do with enough skill, such as how the Dutch did it in OTL.

The challenge is getting from there to a united state. By 'unite' I mean the creation of a single nation state, in the way that Italy or Germany or, obviously, Indonesia was created IOTL. The latter example was highly contingent on the Dutch domination, the shared experience of oppression combined with the very modern War of Independence, and by modern I mean with modern ideas that help build nations such as ethnonationalism and egalitarianism. A slower unification based on the gradual integration of an economic/military hegemony is a tougher thing I think, especially given that while for the sake of the scenario we are assuming "no Europeans" this in practice is highly unlikely, or at least there'll almost certainly be Indians and Chinese and some others wanting a piece of the pie. Resisting this would not break the laws of physics so it's not ASB, but would need to be the product of some very clever statespeople. Language at least shouldn't be an issue if Malay is turned into an even more universal language, of education as well, and religion may well help too. IMO there'd probably need to be a fairly successful 75-100 year stretch to turn the archipelago into a single (federal) nation state, but that's not impossible. If it included Malaya and the non-Indonesian parts of the archipelago it would have incredible potential, greater than all but a few continental states.
 
Would these countries have still eventually gotten unified?
I don't really agree with your tone here. You seem to be implying that unification is the 'natural' state of Indonesia and the Philippines, just like it is in China. Far from it - the current situation is quite simply bizarre from a historical viewpoint.

Always the demographic powerhouse, Java under Mataram was very unlikely to become a sea going power
Sultan Agung commanded the loyalties of Sukudana, Banjarmasin, Jambi, and Palembang. Without the VOC, the presence of which convinced Amangkurat I that he could do away with native Javanese maritime activities entirely, Mataram or its successor could very easily have been an Islamic Majapahit. Also consider that without Europeans, Mataram would definitely (I mean definitely, the leading historian of Java does not have a shred of doubt about this) have collapsed in the 1670s and been replaced by Trunajaya's coastal dynasty.

Java being disunited is of course quite easy
Is it? The belief in the necessity of a united Java is very strong by the 1700s, to the point that Yogya and Sala refused to either accept each other or the presence of the Dutch on the coastline. Without a powerful force like the VOC Java will eventually be reunited - and I really can't fathom Banten exerting influence remotely approaching the VOC's bureaucratic authority.

IMO there'd probably need to be a fairly successful 75-100 year stretch to turn the archipelago into a single (federal) nation state, but that's not impossible.
It is impossible though in such a short span of time for a non-Javanese power. There is absolutely nothing but Islam holding together this state, and religion isn't a very good way of creating a nation-state given the vast differences between, say, Acehnese and Javanese Islam. Malay can't compete with Javanese in the court without the backing of a powerful bureaucratic state, which is impossible to create in just a hundred years. There's also going to be a strong strain of Javanese proto-nationalism by the 1700s.
 
Sultan Agung commanded the loyalties of Sukudana, Banjarmasin, Jambi, and Palembang. Without the VOC, the presence of which convinced Amangkurat I that he could do away with native Javanese maritime activities entirely, Mataram or its successor could very easily have been an Islamic Majapahit. Also consider that without Europeans, Mataram would definitely (I mean definitely, the leading historian of Java does not have a shred of doubt about this) have collapsed in the 1670s and been replaced by Trunajaya's coastal dynasty.

Bit of a contradiction Mataram both collapsing and becoming an Islamic Majapahit, but I'd agree that if Trunajaya or some analog managed to dominate Java that there'd be a much better chance of establishing a archipelago-wide hegemony. I suspect though that anything established in the 1600's would not last long enough for a version of the modern ideas of nation to make their way into the region.

Is it? The belief in the necessity of a united Java is very strong by the 1700s, to the point that Yogya and Sala refused to either accept each other or the presence of the Dutch on the coastline. Without a powerful force like the VOC Java will eventually be reunited - and I really can't fathom Banten exerting influence remotely approaching the VOC's bureaucratic authority.

The belief existed but the ability to put it into practice was not there. The two courts trended towards further fragmentation, not consolidation. This is not to say that I don't think there's a possibility for a reunited Java, but rather that if someone wanted to write a scenario it would not be pushing the bounds of plausibility too far to have Java remained disunited for a long period of time. That is of course what happened IOTL, though with Europeans of course.

It is impossible though in such a short span of time for a non-Javanese power. There is absolutely nothing but Islam holding together this state, and religion isn't a very good way of creating a nation-state given the vast differences between, say, Acehnese and Javanese Islam. Malay can't compete with Javanese in the court without the backing of a powerful bureaucratic state, which is impossible to create in just a hundred years. There's also going to be a strong strain of Javanese proto-nationalism by the 1700s.

To clarify what I mean here, I am suggesting that an already established Nusantaran hegemony could, if it were very lucky, harness the power of modern nationalism to its own ends and forge a genuine united nation. This definitely couldn't happen before the 19th century, and certainly a lot of the bureaucratic developments would need to have occurred earlier. I do think that the more likely outcome by a distance would be for it to fragment pretty quickly, but I don't think it's physically impossible for such a unification to occur. For the sake of an AH story you could write it and not be seen as ASB, though with perhaps a finger on the scale.

On the matter of language I think it would be pretty easy for the coastal Javanese cities to begin using Malay in most areas of life, given say two or more centuries of being under the thumb of a non-Javanese power. Central Java is much more tricky in the short run, but as we saw in Europe once a nation state gets going it can change the language of the elite quite quickly so long as that elite is allowed a role in the society at large.
 
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