The fate of eastern Germany in a Central Powers WW I victory scenario?

If Germany retains the Ukraine as a client state, it is likely that a lot farmers in Eastern Germany will be put out of business due to German markets being flooded with cheap Ukrainian grains. So I would guess that agriculture in the region would not just stagnate, but decline as a whole. As for industry moving there, I find it unlikely as it is not an ideal location. IFAIK, industrial regions are where they are because there is usually a resource nearby, like iron or coal. I don't know a ton about industry though, so I could be wrong. The remaining farms would probably mechanize, most likely with government support, so as to keep a good amount of Germans in the region and prevent it from being "Polonized".
 

Deleted member 94680

If Germany retains the Ukraine as a client state, it is likely that a lot farmers in Eastern Germany will be put out of business due to German markets being flooded with cheap Ukrainian grains. So I would guess that agriculture in the region would not just stagnate, but decline as a whole. As for industry moving there, I find it unlikely as it is not an ideal location. IFAIK, industrial regions are where they are because there is usually a resource nearby, like iron or coal. I don't know a ton about industry though, so I could be wrong. The remaining farms would probably mechanize, most likely with government support, so as to keep a good amount of Germans in the region and prevent it from being "Polonized".

Fair points, but I'm not sure the German government would actively allow thousands of Germans (Prussians at that!) to be put out of work by cheap Ukrainian imports. In peacetime, employment may be seen as more important than the price of grain - also, there's less need for government to purchase it at rock bottom prices when they don't have a Wartime sized army to feed.
 
If Germany retains the Ukraine as a client state, it is likely that a lot farmers in Eastern Germany will be put out of business due to German markets being flooded with cheap Ukrainian grains. So I would guess that agriculture in the region would not just stagnate, but decline as a whole. As for industry moving there, I find it unlikely as it is not an ideal location. IFAIK, industrial regions are where they are because there is usually a resource nearby, like iron or coal. I don't know a ton about industry though, so I could be wrong. The remaining farms would probably mechanize, most likely with government support, so as to keep a good amount of Germans in the region and prevent it from being "Polonized".

The august 1918 treaty of Berlin undid the Brest Litovsk clause that Russia must not control the Ukraine, so the problem of cheap grain flooding German markets might not arise.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Agriculturally speaking, East Prussia was one of the most advanced regions in the 1930's. Without WW2 and a victorious WW1 I would expect this trend to explode even more, only coming to it's right post-deindustrialisation (it would probably happen, especially with Mittelafrika around). East Prussia could become TTL's GMO hub.

GMO = Genetically Modified Organisms?

This could combine with Teutonic Knights tourism (as mentioned by Anderman).

TK tourism would certainly be very interesting! :)

If Brest Litovsk get implented Königsberg would be the hub to the German Baltic.

Yeah, I was also thinking of Konigsberg and East Prussia serving as a transportation hub for German soldiers and travelers who were going to and from the East.

I think the biggest advantage of East Prussia, West Prussia and Pomerania will be (my first point) that they will never industrialize. In the short term this gives them a disadvantage.

Didn't industrialization come to some parts of these provinces (such as Konigsberg), though?

But when Silesia, Rheinland and Saxony enter a big time economic recession on a similair scale to OTL Wallonia these regions could finally start to bloom.

Couldn't the German government subsidize failing industries in the Ruhr and Rhineland, though?

Their coastal locations also gives them a wind energy advantage, and their relative low population densities combined with their land climate could also simulate solar energy farms. In the long term I think east Germany would prosper.

How much sunshine was there in these German provinces, though?
 

Anderman

Donor
OK; also, though, why exactly did this change after the end of World War II?


After the war of companies original from the east relocated to Bavaria Siemens moved it HQ and productions facilities to Munich, Auto Union (now Audi) moved to Ingoldstadt were already their main warehouse for replacement parts was.
That and the fact for example the owenership of cars per capita was encreasing and more factories needed.
 
GMO = Genetically Modified Organisms?

Didn't industrialization come to some parts of these provinces (such as Konigsberg), though?

Couldn't the German government subsidize failing industries in the Ruhr and Rhineland, though?

How much sunshine was there in these German provinces, though?


Yea, as in modified crops (creating wheat that's more resistant against drought etc).

True, like the Schichau werke, and they will suffer. But its not on the same degree as Rheinland or Silesia. These regions, especially Silesia, completely relied upon steel and coal works. Also I dont think the German government would protect German industry that much. The German democracy was pretty authorian and nobles played a big role in it (a 'Von' last name in German basically implies noble blood). I dont see nobles propping up gigantic schemes that cause a massive financial burden in order to protect the failing steel industry and it's workers. Especially if those factories get moved to an area that is within the German commonwealth (which likely has a free trade agreement). Like OTL the chemical industry will most likely survive. Northeastern Germany will have some abandoned shipyards in the inner cities waiting to be gentrified, but unlike OTL Wallonia and Northern France, and TTL's Silesia, it wont be miles and miles of desolate industrial wasteland with rusting cathedrals of steel.
The dynamics of capitalism will cause deindustrialisation, that's for sure. The only way to prevent that from happening is making Germany not capitalist. And that would alter the scenario a lot.

Apparently the coast of Pommerania and Posen get quite some sun hours: https://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/052011895811.jpg Which is among the highest the German Empire would have: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Europe_sunshine_hours_map.png
 

Deleted member 94680

Dunno, it wasn't a highly detailed description, just a throwaway I saw when reading for my TL, which incidentally isn't coming last in the voting!

Thing is, I've heard a few times about the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk being modified later on, but only on this site. I tried finding the "Treaty of Berlin" dated 1918, but I've never found anything. Everything I've read about B-L lists the terms and how harsh it is, but never about it being modified later on.

More information would be greatly appreciated.
 
Thing is, I've heard a few times about the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk being modified later on, but only on this site. I tried finding the "Treaty of Berlin" dated 1918, but I've never found anything. Everything I've read about B-L lists the terms and how harsh it is, but never about it being modified later on.

More information would be greatly appreciated.

The most detailed coverage I found on it was on a website with swastikas and shit all over it, so I'm not linking that!

It's a pretty obscure treaty, I only heard about it in the last month or two. The Wiki article on B-L mentions the financial agreement but everything else is hard to dig up, presumably because it only lasted about 9 weeks and was subsumed in the western centric world by Versailles.

The relevant date is 27 august 1918, and it was called 'supplementary treaty of peace' if you're keen to dig through a bunch of stuff to back up the paragraph in this article, about 2/3 down. http://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/war_aims_and_war_aims_discussions
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The German democracy was pretty authorian and nobles played a big role in it (a 'Von' last name in German basically implies noble blood). I dont see nobles propping up gigantic schemes that cause a massive financial burden in order to protect the failing steel industry and it's workers.
Wouldn't Germany have had democratic reforms even after a German victory in a long WWI, though? After all, didn't Bethmann-Hollweg already promise this in early 1917?
 
Wouldn't Germany have had democratic reforms even after a German victory in a long WWI, though? After all, didn't Bethmann-Hollweg already promise this in early 1917?

Depends on the circumstances of German victory and I would bet that they will not be as far reaching as many people on this site assume.

teg
 

Deleted member 94680

Depends on the circumstances of German victory and I would bet that they will not be as far reaching as many people on this site assume.

teg

Going from the earlier posts in this thread where we discussed the Easter Message I looked up a text of the proclamation. The section directly referencing political reform is as follows:

"I am especially anxious to see the reorganization of the Prussian parliament and the liberation of all our domestic politics from this problem. On my orders, preparations for altering the suffrage for the House of Delegates were made at the beginning of the war. I now charge you to submit to me concrete proposals from the State Ministry, so this work, which is basic to the structure of domestic politics in Prussia, will quickly be carried out by legislation, once our warriors have returned. Given the colossal achievements of the whole people in this terrible war, I am convinced that there is no room any longer for the three-class franchise system in Prussia. Furthermore, the proposed bill is to provide for the direct and secret election of deputies."

Seems pretty wide reaching to me.
 

Deleted member 94680

The august 1918 treaty of Berlin undid the Brest Litovsk clause that Russia must not control the Ukraine, so the problem of cheap grain flooding German markets might not arise.

Right, so I found this: https://mk.christogenea.org/referen...ementary-russian-german-treaty-august-27-1918

As you pointed out it was signed at the same time as the financial clauses to B-L that Wikipedia mentions.

I do, however, disagree that it removes the prevention of Russian control of the Ukraine as it mentions treaties and peace to be made between Russia and Ukraine. It seems IMO that this Supplementary Treaty continues to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation as established in B-L.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I do, however, disagree that it removes the prevention of Russian control of the Ukraine as it mentions treaties and peace to be made between Russia and Ukraine. It seems IMO that this Supplementary Treaty continues to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation as established in B-L.
Looking at this treaty itself, I am tempted to agree with your reading of it, Stenz! :)
 
Right, so I found this: https://mk.christogenea.org/referen...ementary-russian-german-treaty-august-27-1918

As you pointed out it was signed at the same time as the financial clauses to B-L that Wikipedia mentions.

I do, however, disagree that it removes the prevention of Russian control of the Ukraine as it mentions treaties and peace to be made between Russia and Ukraine. It seems IMO that this Supplementary Treaty continues to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation as established in B-L.
Looking at this treaty itself, I am tempted to agree with your reading of it, Stenz! :)

Fair enough, what does the BL treaty say about Russia and the Ukraine, is the language the same or different in a way that the ambiguity can be interpreted as not precluding Russian control?
 

Deleted member 94680

Fair enough, what does the BL treaty say about Russia and the Ukraine, is the language the same or different in a way that the ambiguity can be interpreted as not precluding Russian control?

Right, what I found was the following:

ARTICLE 6
Russia undertakes to conclude peace at once with the Ukrainian People's Republic and to recognize the treaty of peace between the state and the powers of the Quadruple Alliance. The territory of the Ukraine must be, at once, cleared of Russian troops and of the Russian Red Guard. Russia ceases all agitation or propaganda against the government or the public institutions of the Ukrainia People's Republic.

That is from this website http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/bl34.asp#treatytext which is text of the whole Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. The Ukrainian People's Republic that it mentions is the one established by this, earlier, Treaty of Brest-Litovsk: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Brest-Litovsk_(Ukraine–Central_Powers) Where the Central Powers had recognised the Ukraine as a separate entity to Russia and initiated diplomatic relations with its rulers.
 
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