The fate of China in the early 20th century without World War I?

CaliGuy

Banned
What does China's fate in the early 20th century look like without World War I?

For instance, do the European Great Powers militarily intervene in China to restore order there in the 1910s in this TL after the collapse of central government authority in China?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indeed, were the European Great Powers hostile to the development of warlordism in China? Or were they indifferent or even favorably disposed to this development in China?
 
I can imagine a couple of possibilities. One is that, spared the exhaustion that, in our time line, resulted from the Great War of 1914-1918, some of the European powers would respond to the collapse of central authority in China by expanding the territories under their direct rule. Thus, we might see the southern coast of China under British rule, the northern coast of China under German rule, and some of western China under Russian rule. The other is that German Empire would become, on a much greater scale, the sort of champion of Chinese nationalism that the German Republic was in our time line.
 
I can imagine a couple of possibilities. One is that, spared the exhaustion that, in our time line, resulted from the Great War of 1914-1918, some of the European powers would respond to the collapse of central authority in China by expanding the territories under their direct rule. Thus, we might see the southern coast of China under British rule, the northern coast of China under German rule, and some of western China under Russian rule. The other is that German Empire would become, on a much greater scale, the sort of champion of Chinese nationalism that the German Republic was in our time line.

If I read this correctly, So this means outright colonization by western power (and Japan)? If it so, could we ended up with balkanized China? Or China's to big for everyone to swallow?
 

MrP

Banned
One would have to figure out whether Japan decides to push its advantage without the other powers distracted by the war. The 21 Demands and assorted Japanese shenanigans played a part in the destabilisation of Yuan's rule.
 
If I read this correctly, So this means outright colonization by western power (and Japan)? If it so, could we ended up with balkanized China? Or China's to big for everyone to swallow?
I think getting everyone involved might be needed to swallow all of China. Tibet to Britain, SE China to France, Xinjiang and Mongolia to Russia, Manchuria to Japan, much of Northern and Central China to Germany, Britain/Portugal/Italy getting slices along the East Coast. Some sort of conference with agreed upon spheres of influence probably needed.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I think getting everyone involved might be needed to swallow all of China. Tibet to Britain, SE China to France, Xinjiang and Mongolia to Russia, Manchuria to Japan, much of Northern and Central China to Germany, Britain/Portugal/Italy getting slices along the East Coast. Some sort of conference with agreed upon spheres of influence probably needed.
Agreed.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
One would have to figure out whether Japan decides to push its advantage without the other powers distracted by the war. The 21 Demands and assorted Japanese shenanigans played a part in the destabilisation of Yuan's rule.
Didn't Yuan's inclination towards autocracy also hurt him, though?
 
I think getting everyone involved might be needed to swallow all of China. Tibet to Britain, SE China to France, Xinjiang and Mongolia to Russia, Manchuria to Japan, much of Northern and Central China to Germany, Britain/Portugal/Italy getting slices along the East Coast. Some sort of conference with agreed upon spheres of influence probably needed.

So, like scramble for Africa?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Japan could be an interesting wildcard here. It would demand a big share in any partition, but it also might resist the idea of any partition at all, becoming a champion of sorts for China. The motive would be to avoid firmer and larger European bases so close. Japan-China-US coalition against partition?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Japan could be an interesting wildcard here. It would demand a big share in any partition, but it also might resist the idea of any partition at all, becoming a champion of sorts for China. The motive would be to avoid firmer and larger European bases so close. Japan-China-US coalition against partition?
Perhaps; however, could such a coalition actually successfully deter the European Great Powers from going ahead with partition anyway?

Of course, could Britain be won over to an anti-partition stance in this TL?
 
China is no Africa. It is a far more centralized and developed region that will not simply be colonized by European powers. In addition, three of the four powers in the best position to affect China (Britain, the U.S, Japan) would have absolutely no interest in a partition. As stated, Japan would want to keep European powers out, while Britain already has a pretty good deal to get into China's markets that they would be loathe to share with others. The United States is even more of a no-go, for similar reasons.

Doesn't mean they won't be pushed around, however. The British and Japanese still have an alliance, so while Japan will have to be less ambitious ITTL, they are still going to have a shot to expand their Chinese influence. The United States just wants an open market, while the British will be interested in keeping the Germans and Russians out (any more than they already are). As the balance of power shifts and Russia starts to be perceived as just as strong as Germany, Britain may lighten up on policy against the latter and be more hostile towards the former, though they will be wary of both all the same.

We're more likely to see a kind of forced equilibrium in this scenario than any radical scenario, which unfortunately for China means they're not going to get much of a chance in the near future to be a major power on their own.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
We're more likely to see a kind of forced equilibrium in this scenario than any radical scenario, which unfortunately for China means they're not going to get much of a chance in the near future to be a major power on their own.
A forced equilibrium with different warlords being in control of various different parts of China?
 
Few things to note:
1. The Powers couldn't agree on how to divide China after the OTL Boxer Rebellion. Thus they opted to an uneasy compromise with nominal Qing control, Open Door and unequal treaties with treaty ports and cities, and defined spheres of influence.
2. There were instances where such agreements could not be reached, and after the Russo-Japanese War Qing authorities continued the military reform programs they had initiated earlier.
3. The Boxer uprisings cast a long shadow to the strategic thinking of the Powers. Directly annexing large areas of Chinese interiour was deemed too costly, when the option of economically beneficial exploitation of Chinese markets and the Qing state apparatus could continue.
4. Aside from Japan and perhaps the United States, none of the Powers was in a position to risk a war for China due the volatile situation in Europe.
5. The idea of splitting up China between European Powers more or less died a violent death at the hand of the Boxers. After that the Powers were content to continue the tried and true policy of supporting Qing against internal Chinese revolts.

Now, Chinese nationalism was slowly becoming a thing, and the tensions between the central government and provincial authorities were growing regardless of events outside of China. Sooner or later there would a new revolt against Qing. But would the Powers be able to act together as before? Oppressing reformed Chinese forces with modern weaponry wouldn't be as easy crushing the Boxers a few decades earlier, and the memory of Russian occupation of Manchuria and the following war against Japan would make the British, Germans and French tread lightly.

All in all, it seems most likely that China would remain nominally united, but de facto divided into regional areas where certain Powers hold sway and control events. This situation would carry on for a while, but the more or less inevitable Han-nationalist revolution against Qing may or may not be opposed by joint European intervention(s), leading to possible future annexations among the coast. There were simply too many Chinese armed with modern weapons and hostile towards the idea of becoming a colony to make Indian-styled conquest likely, especially because virtually all Powers had a stake on the future of China.
 
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