The fate of Axis metropoles if they had been victorious?

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Assuming a scenario of a victorious Axis in WW2(Japan never provokes America, Britain is ruled by a weaker leader then Churchill who pulls out early and the Nazi invasion of the USSR is pulled off successfully), what would the the fate of the Japanese, Italian and German metropoles most likely resemble?

North Korea-style third world dystopic juntas?

PRC-style amoral but competent dictatorships with popular support from metropole population?

Or perhaps even eventual overthrow/liberal reform before 2010(ala the transitions in South Korea/ROC)?

*Not meaning to suggest that all three would turn out the same

**Not meaning to suggest North Korea/PRC/ROC/Taiwan are morally comparable to axis, apologies if any perceive such an implication and are offended.

To be clear I am referring to the metropole populations(ethnic Germans, Italians and Japanese), not the conquered peoples/oppressed minorities, whose situation would obviously be completely dystopic(though maybe not so much in the Italian empire's case, they seem to been relatively egalitarian imperialists)

Anyone who also wants to speculate about the fate of other axis/fascist nations like Bulgarian/Hungary/Finland/Spain etc feel free to do so.
 
Personal predictions:

Germany is saved from North Korea style total deprivation by exploitation/enslavement of conquered people, superior supply of natural resources and less insane economic policies. But the necessity of sustaining a military machine to subdue conquests and keep up Keynesian inflation of economy leaves them at second world standard of living at best. Occupy a middle ground between dystopia and competent dictatorship, which one it leans closest to is entirely dependant on whether they get lucky with successors of Hitler or not.

Japan's regime never democratizes but proves quite competent(very possibly better off then OTL due to not needing to rebuild and the exploitation of conquered territories). Becomes America's primary trading partner.

Italy tries to assimilate conquered territories into it's metropole and proves to be the most liberal and egalitarian of the three, very possibly ends up reforming and adopting some trappings of democracy(though hardly a model democracy).
 
Personal predictions:

Germany is saved from North Korea style total deprivation by exploitation/enslavement of conquered people, superior supply of natural resources and less insane economic policies. But the necessity of sustaining a military machine to subdue conquests and keep up Keynesian inflation of economy leaves them at second world standard of living at best. Occupy a middle ground between dystopia and competent dictatorship, which one it leans closest to is entirely dependant on whether they get lucky with successors of Hitler or not.

Japan's regime never democratizes but proves quite competent(very possibly better off then OTL due to not needing to rebuild and the exploitation of conquered territories). Becomes America's primary trading partner.

Italy tries to assimilate conquered territories into it's metropole and proves to be the most liberal and egalitarian of the three, very possibly ends up reforming and adopting some trappings of democracy(though hardly a model democracy).
Not sure I agree with all of this. I'd say Germany would swing straight into dystopia even for Aryan Germans. The entire state structure itself was grossly inefficient, prone to infighting, and just too paranoid to get things done. Assuming the entire state just doesn't collapse from civil war, there's still constant rebellions demanding the mobilization of millions of Germans, sending them off to die on a routine basis. Conscription will obviously never go away. They will still be paranoid of communists, socialists, subvertists of any kind, dissidents, and secret Jews/Slavs and anyone who so much hints at being one of these things gets sent to a death camp, in addition to many people who are simply accused of being one for any variety of reasons. Corruption will be massive, what with the self-serving party structure, the SS and Nazi party in general would be at least twice as rotten as the CPSU of the Brezhnev era, and the SS would be free to just wildly oppress everyone they can. Basically, I just envision a surviving Nazi state as being the closest possible thing to 1984's Oceania.

Also, I don't see the Japanese Empire becoming very competent. Not only was it run by an inefficient military, the military itself was extremely divided. Generals and admirals would all be running their own show in the name of the emperor, and they'd eventually get to the point where they just completely run the country into the ground, which they were getting close to even before the US declared war.
 
Not sure I agree with all of this. I'd say Germany would swing straight into dystopia even for Aryan Germans. The entire state structure itself was grossly inefficient, prone to infighting, and just too paranoid to get things done. Assuming the entire state just doesn't collapse from civil war, there's still constant rebellions demanding the mobilization of millions of Germans, sending them off to die on a routine basis. Conscription will obviously never go away. They will still be paranoid of communists, socialists, subvertists of any kind, dissidents, and secret Jews/Slavs and anyone who so much hints at being one of these things gets sent to a death camp, in addition to many people who are simply accused of being one for any variety of reasons. Corruption will be massive, what with the self-serving party structure, the SS and Nazi party in general would be at least twice as rotten as the CPSU of the Brezhnev era, and the SS would be free to just wildly oppress everyone they can. Basically, I just envision a surviving Nazi state as being the closest possible thing to 1984's Oceania
I'm inclined to agree with you on this, except I'm not sure if poverty is possible with such a vast supply of slaves, exploitable states and vast arrays of national resources under their rule. And surely the possibility of losing such a hard won conquests would be enough to rally the infighting factions to at least the bare minimum functionality necessary to sustain the empire.
 

Tannhäuser

Banned
As mentioned above, Germany would be incapable of poverty as long as it had a steady supply of slave labor and free resources, which it would continue to possess as long as it would be able to suppress revolts in Russia (which it would soon be able to do with great ease once the Russian population starts inevitably dropping). Eventually, probably by 2000, it would start running out of slave population due to the deaths and low birthrate that would obviously result from racial enslavement. It is possible that Germany would attempt to force the slave peoples to reproduce, but it would probably balk ideologically at such a proposal. However, the loss of the slave labor force would be offset by the massive German population boom (the 300m by 2000 goal would probably be realized), and the German economy would be roaring well into the 21st century no matter how corrupt and inefficient it was. Political reform, however, would be highly unlikely due to a) the essentially total brainwashing that would probably be carried out on the later generations and b) the population's fear of political reform leading to an uprising of slave peoples.

Japan would definitely remain undemocratic due to its culture (not that there's anything wrong with it, but even modern Japan's democracy is distinctly different from that of its Western counterparts). The big question is whether it would be able to maintain control over China. Japan would be trying to control a far larger population than Germany would be, and I'm not so sure it would be successful. China would provide massive aid to the Japanese economy, like Russia, in the form of slaves and resources. However, if China were to free itself, it would inevitably try to attack Japan itself. The most likely scenario is that Japan loses control over China, probably sometime in the 70s, but is able to prevent a Chinese invasion of Japan by threatening it with the atomic weapons that it certainly possesses by this point. However, the loss of China could potentially wreck the Japanese economy, which would probably be consumer-based due to the lack of an American market (I doubt the US would trade with a country constantly mentioned in the news as wiping out yet another Chinese village). With the loss of China, the Japanese economy would be confined to Japan and perhaps some allies like Siam and Germany. I don't know if it would weather the storm, or whether there would even be one. Even if there were and it didn't, however, I doubt the political regime would change much.

Italy would probably be dragged along by Germany into an increasingly Nazi-like political structure. Its economy would probably do just fine, probably as well as OTL's, since the loss of American and British markets (not to mention France's and Eastern Europe's, which would obviously not be in much of a position to buy anything) would be offset by the colonial markets, resources, and slave labor. If any sort of economic disruption occurred, however, or Nazi Germany fell for any reason (or was at least seriously weakened), it would probably reform or undergo revolution, as the Italian people were always uncomfortable with Fascism. Otherwise, it would remain a fascist, increasingly totalitarian state, perhaps with a German intervention or two to make sure it stayed that way.
 
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