The Fate of Austria-Hungary After a 1914 Central Powers Victory

Tannhäuser

Banned
I've looked through the forums, and while the "CP Victory Once and For All" thread is very helpful and definitive with regard to the immediate outcome of an early CP victory, there doesn't seem to be much discussion about what happens to AH and Russia in the years to come. France would probably remain democratic, and there's no reason that Germany would collapse or something, but Russia and AH are both highly unstable and while an early peace will prolong their lives, how much time do they have left? And what happens when time runs out?

I've divided this into two questions, one about Russia and the other about AH so that discussion and polling will be simpler.

Will AH be able to federalize, or is that just a Wikipedia daydream? If it tries to, what will the Hungarian nobles have to say about it? Will it in the end Balkanize, or go Communist?
 

Deleted member 1487

I've looked through the forums, and while the "CP Victory Once and For All" thread is very helpful and definitive with regard to the immediate outcome of an early CP victory, there doesn't seem to be much discussion about what happens to AH and Russia in the years to come. France would probably remain democratic, and there's no reason that Germany would collapse or something, but Russia and AH are both highly unstable and while an early peace will prolong their lives, how much time do they have left? And what happens when time runs out?

I've divided this into two questions, one about Russia and the other about AH so that discussion and polling will be simpler.

Will AH be able to federalize, or is that just a Wikipedia daydream? If it tries to, what will the Hungarian nobles have to say about it? Will it in the end Balkanize, or go Communist?

Wiki-dream. Centralization is probably better for it to survive, similar to what China has: economic development through government intervention to keep people happy. If AH avoids the defeats of OTL 1914 and is on the winning side, she very well could survive and thrive (relative to AH's position prewar). The external pressure is removed, AH is re-confirmed as a great power, and the Kaiser is strengthen vis-a-vis the Hungarians. 1917 and the death of Franz Josef will be the critical moments for the Empire and will probably determine if they survive, but then is the best time to take down the Hungarians: the external enemies are neutralized and the Austrians can settle accounts internally.
 

Tannhäuser

Banned
But China is united by a common history, ethnicity (sort of), and language (sort of). AH has none of these. Will economic growth be enough to overcome nationalism? And wouldn't the Hungarians resist centralization as much as they'd resist federalization?
 
I'm going to say it's very, very unlikely Austria-Hungary can federalize at this point. I suspect, in fact, their last chance for anything like that was 1848. By 1914, Hungary just isn't going to be willing to give up any power to the "lesser" states in the empire - and why should they? They won after all...

A-H is pretty much destined to break up, at least in half and probably down to a lot more, much as it did on OTL. When, of course, is the question: nations "destined to break up" can keep going for a lot, lot longer than you'd expect. But I'd be very surprised if it was still intact by the 1990s, and not at all surprised if it wasn't by the 1920s. I also suspect, though, that the longer it takes until the breakup happens, the less likely it is to happen violently.
 

Deleted member 1487

But China is united by a common history, ethnicity (sort of), and language (sort of). AH has none of these. Will economic growth be enough to overcome nationalism? And wouldn't the Hungarians resist centralization as much as they'd resist federalization?

AH was together for nearly 500 years by that point. China has 55 different ethnicities and is far more racially, religiously, and linguistically different than AH ever was. Yes, there was an attempt to do just this in 1907, but it was sabotaged by the Austrian bureaucracy, some of whom were the forerunners of the Austrian school of economics (intellectual forefathers of the modern Republican party), who cut off funding for the critical public works projects. The plan was poised to revitalize the economy and unite divergent ethnic groups. Money has a way of uniting people.
The Hungarian nobility would have to have their power broken for this to really work, which is why 1917 (the year of the Ausgleich negotiations) is so critical. The Austrians were ready to draw a line in the sand and the Hungarians were ready to step over it, so universal suffrage was on the table, which would have broken Hungarian power (the nobility that is).

I'm going to say it's very, very unlikely Austria-Hungary can federalize at this point. I suspect, in fact, their last chance for anything like that was 1848. By 1914, Hungary just isn't going to be willing to give up any power to the "lesser" states in the empire - and why should they? They won after all...

A-H is pretty much destined to break up, at least in half and probably down to a lot more, much as it did on OTL. When, of course, is the question: nations "destined to break up" can keep going for a lot, lot longer than you'd expect. But I'd be very surprised if it was still intact by the 1990s, and not at all surprised if it wasn't by the 1920s. I also suspect, though, that the longer it takes until the breakup happens, the less likely it is to happen violently.
Very true. There are several paths that the Empire could take, few of them resulting in survival, but these few are not too unlikely. Much stood against it working, but it had remained despite everything that tried to destroy it for so long. There is no reason it couldn't muddle on in the right circumstance, which a 1914 victory with AH field armies being involved in those victories (the only way to actually get a 1914 CP victory) being a critical component.
 

Tannhäuser

Banned
Wiki-dream. Centralization is probably better for it to survive, similar to what China has: economic development through government intervention to keep people happy. If AH avoids the defeats of OTL 1914 and is on the winning side, she very well could survive and thrive (relative to AH's position prewar). The external pressure is removed, AH is re-confirmed as a great power, and the Kaiser is strengthen vis-a-vis the Hungarians. 1917 and the death of Franz Josef will be the critical moments for the Empire and will probably determine if they survive, but then is the best time to take down the Hungarians: the external enemies are neutralized and the Austrians can settle accounts internally.

Why is centralization better than federalization? Because it's more likely to actually happen and because federalization would probably just result in the various nationalities going their separate ways? I am somewhat convinced by Wiking's argument for it. It seems to be the most promising way for AH to survive, and its most likely course of action. Federalization would, like glasnost, probably result in the empire's dissolution without many preceding decades of national homogenization and economic progress.

But even if AH might actually try to do it, and it might actually work, will Vienna be able to push centralization through? Both of you think that Hungary is going to be the obstacle to either reform - can it be overcome peacefully at the Ausgleich? If not, will a civil war result?
 
If the Austro-Hungarian empire is to centralize, it can't just be a business as usual sort of thing. One of the problems of the Empire was the huge inequality between regions. While its a given that the South Slav provinces are never going to be as industrialized as Austria proper and Bohemia, some effort can be made towards reducing the regional disparities. When the economy of these regions are improved, they are less likely to look towards their still poverty-stricken brothers in independent nations such as Serbia and Romania.

I don't nessacerily beleive that whats needed is to homogenise the empire in terms of language and culture, just to show that they are better off in the empire, and perhaps emphasizing their differences with those they traditionally looked towards. Say an emphasis of Croatian nationalism as opposed to Yugoslavism and "Bohemianism" as opposed to the more ethnic based Czech nationalism. I don't believe 1914 is too late to go back, though a surviving empire focused on centralization would need to face more challenges then an empire that decides to fundamentally reform in the mid 19th century, before the Ausgleich.
 

Deleted member 1487

Why is centralization better than federalization? Because it's more likely to actually happen and because federalization would probably just result in the various nationalities going their separate ways? I am somewhat convinced by Wiking's argument for it. It seems to be the most promising way for AH to survive, and its most likely course of action. Federalization would, like glasnost, probably result in the empire's dissolution without many preceding decades of national homogenization and economic progress.

But even if AH might actually try to do it, and it might actually work, will Vienna be able to push centralization through? Both of you think that Hungary is going to be the obstacle to either reform - can it be overcome peacefully at the Ausgleich? If not, will a civil war result?

http://www.amazon.com/Economic-Spurt-That-Failed-Lectures/dp/0691042160
I was wrong about the date, it was 1905, not 1907.
Alexander Gerschenkron wrote a book about this potential for reform; as THE economic historian no one is (was) better to comment on the subject. He settled on the side for success for the Empire if it had gone through (though with qualifications).
Centralization was the only way to get things done in the Empire. Ethnic strife, obstructionism, and general bitterness for past slights were all too divisive for a federal government to work. Read Gerschenkron and you get some VERY interesting anecdotes about how the Austrian parliament worked. It makes the current US Congress look positively accomplished in solving national issues. The attempt to start massive national public works projects to jump start the economy and paper over various ethnic troubles revitalized the parliament and actually passed without having to be forced through by decree. Everyone was hot for it until the finance ministry refused to take the loans for it, going so far as to threaten to resign enmasse to block the bill (like I said, hardcore economic conservatives), which succeeded.

Federalization would have devolved too much power and resulted in even worse strife, probably with a lot of bloodshed thanks to there being no clear ethnic boundaries in the Empire. It took WW2 and ethnic cleansing during and post war to firm up the borders.
 

Tannhäuser

Banned
That looks very interesting. You've sold me on the necessity of centralization. It seems likely that Vienna would try to carry it out following victory, but would it be able to? Also, what language would be promoted and taught in the newly centralized nation? German? I actually had a crazy idea that it might be better to use a foreign language - perhaps English or French, but since they are enemies, perhaps...Latin?
 

Deleted member 1487

That looks very interesting. You've sold me on the necessity of centralization. It seems likely that Vienna would try to carry it out following victory, but would it be able to? Also, what language would be promoted and taught in the newly centralized nation? German? I actually had a crazy idea that it might be better to use a foreign language - perhaps English or French, but since they are enemies, perhaps...Latin?

German is the only language that makes sense.
During the 1917 Ausgleich negotiations would be the time to centralize or at least end the Dual Monarchy. Hungary was planning on pulling some stunts to formalize their independence in all but name, while the Austrians were fed up with the Magyar bullshit. Matters were coming to a head, even the weak-willed Kaiser Karl (Franz Josef died in 1916), as his generals, especially the victorious Conard von Hötzendorf ITTL, who was really pressing to resolve the matter. The Hungarian nobility stood no change in a real fight, which the old guard knew, but they were gone by 1917, which left only the young Turks, who were looking for a fight and didn't realize they would lose (of course they were under pressure internally to reform and were fighting against it by becoming increasingly extreme).
1917 was make or break. It would solve (one of) the core problem of the Monarchy, Hungarian intransigence, or tear apart the Empire.
Honestly though everyone was out to get the Hungarians, so the Empire could very well unite over their favorite past time, revenge. Rather than taking the opportunity to revolt, the Slavs and Romanians would instead be eager to get their cut by taking it from the Hungarians!
Interestingly enough the Czechs had an expression during WW1: the Austrians may have saved civilization from the Turks, but they lost it to the Hungarians! (I paraphrased it badly).
 
The Han Chinese have a solid majority. In A-H, even Germans and Hungarians put together were less than 50%. And the country suffered under a ridiculous bureaucracy.
 
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