So what would happen if Stalingrad DID fall?
Unless the Manhattan Project scientists had been taking a tour of Stalingrad for random propaganda, had to leave in such a rush they forgot the plans for the atomic bomb in the city and then the German forces found them (and even then somehow knew what they were looking at) then Stalingrad isn't much of a time-line changer.
In fact the German front line failed to reach the Volga on a stretch of about five miles in a city whose riverfront stretched close to fifteen miles. By the time they were surrounded the Germans had managed to capture almost all the Stalingrad.
So what would happen if Stalingrad DID fall?
The Soviets launch their counteroffensive as per the plans and OTL. Those troops were carefully husbanded reserves; the troops fighting in the city only played the role of bait. The 6. Armee is surrounded as per OTL.
Not a complete disagreement here, but a question:
If Stalingrad falls, it seems odd to me that they would sit tight there instead of attempting to move past the location--perhaps to Astrakhan, on the Caspian Coast.
My question, then, is the Soviet Counterattack was not launched immediately after Stalingrad was attacked.
If Germany continues to move Sixth Army and attempts something like Astrakhan or it sends reinforcements to try to reach Baku,
If Stalingrad falls, considering that it didn't in OTL, it seems odd to me that the German troops in the area aren't completely exhausted and depleted. It also seems odd to me that this happens before the rasputitsa, which will block any strategic movement.
No, in fact. But it seems odd to me that, considering how things went in OTL, the Germans take Stalingrad on the fly, just as they attack it.
And if we stretch credibility and suppose the Germans do take Stalingrad by assault, then the next oddness is that they can scrape up the logisitical lift to send reinforcements towards Baku. In OTL, the troops sent in that direction advanced in sputters and halts not just because of Soviet opposition, but because of the usual reason, lack of fuel.
I'm not sure you are correct. If my memory serves me well, Germans did reach Volga in several points, mostly North or South of city core (as much as term "core" could be applied to ribbon-like city, more a collection of several boroughs under single administration). However, they never managed to secure as much as convenient observation point to direct artillery fire againt Volga crossing. Numerous Soviet memoirs say that German barrage was aimless even during daytime if Soviets managed to chase off German observation planes. Taking into account local terrain (right bank of Volga is pretty high, making observation of the river very hard from any point more than couple of hundreds meters from shore), it means that Germans didn't really control much of Volga bank.In fact the German front line failed to reach the Volga on a stretch of about five miles in a city whose riverfront stretched close to fifteen miles. By the time they were surrounded the Germans had managed to capture almost all the Stalingrad.
I suppose I'm confusing you, but partly its because the OP has specified very little--Stalingrad might have fallen quickly or get seen as indefensible if the Wehrmacht attacks around it.
If Stalingrad is a quick grab, ...