The Fall of Stalingrad

Many say Stalingrad was the key moment in WW2 and i was wondering, what if the city fell? What else ws there between the Nazis and the Caucasus? Would we have a Fatherland Scenario? And what would happen to Mao Tse Tung and the communists in China?
 

Germaniac

Donor
Well for starters stalin would rip Vasilievsky's, Chuikov's, and Zhukov's nuts off for loosing a battle which they had 5,000 more artilery and close to 1000 more tanks

You have to be very sure about what dates you are talking about. Are you saying the Russians dont make a stand, if you are
Germans secure left flank of the invasion. Begin ush into Caucasusand get boged down in the mountains. Facing even longer lines on communication and longer battlefront the Germans are thrashed even mightier and more troops get cut off. No chance of a break out even possile.
Only plauable situation might be in early november when the lultwaffe has air supremecy again. Maybe the germans destroy the two pockets of resistance. The only hope to gain from this would be if the Germans realize their situation and make a tactical withdrawl. They have their victory/ Soviets retain stalingrad.

Once Hitler Invades the Soviet union it is unlikely Germany can survive
 
So what would happen if Stalingrad DID fall?

I dont think the outcome of the war would be really changed if the Germans manege to capture Stalingrad.

Stalingrad, in my opinion, however is projected as a marking point in WW2 because from then on the initiative shifts from the nazis to the allies.
This however doesnt incline it was the reason for the shift, it just was one of the first INDICATIONS. There is a subtle difference.
 
You'd have to factor in Soviet morale too. This was supposed to be the battle they won no matter the cost. Yet another defeat? In an army that's not exactly famous for it's discipline and fortitude?

You could see a repeat of WW1, the Russian soldiers shooting their officers and the such.
 
Well, even if the Germans take Stalingrad, they can still face encirclement by the Red Army's counterattack. Now, there might not be a massive surrender--it might lead to Germany once again pulling or getting forced backward, and that might be a real plus.

Somehow, though, I see Hitler giving another "no retreat" order and the Red Army schooling the Wehrmacht as a result. The Loss of Stalingrad isn't going to help Germany win the Baku Oil Fields unless Germany can somehow hold this line into 1943, which they almost certainly won't.

Its going to be hard to know what happens after this one, because there are several directions this can go. I'm pretty sure that the Red Army ejects Germany from Stalingrad at a minimum and might even pull off OTL's Encirclement again.

Now, Germany's advantage on OTL with no encirclement might be as much as a third of a million men. But while this is a considerable figure, I'm positive Germany is going to blow it somehow in the 1943 offensive.
 

Sachyriel

Banned
Unless the Manhattan Project scientists had been taking a tour of Stalingrad for random propaganda, had to leave in such a rush they forgot the plans for the atomic bomb in the city and then the German forces found them (and even then somehow knew what they were looking at) then Stalingrad isn't much of a time-line changer.
 
In fact the German front line failed to reach the Volga on a stretch of about five miles in a city whose riverfront stretched close to fifteen miles. By the time they were surrounded the Germans had managed to capture almost all the Stalingrad.

A more appropriate question would be "what if they had been able to hold it", which would require a strategy totally different from the one Paulus used to take the city, and which would have at the least involved the reduction of the Soviet bridgeheads over the Don.
 
Unless the Manhattan Project scientists had been taking a tour of Stalingrad for random propaganda, had to leave in such a rush they forgot the plans for the atomic bomb in the city and then the German forces found them (and even then somehow knew what they were looking at) then Stalingrad isn't much of a time-line changer.

I don't know about that---Germany holding another third of a million men as a result of thwarting the Soviet Encirclement might have some knock on effects of prolonging the war somewhat in the East. But I'm pretty sure this does not improve Hitler's sanity, which is the real loser for Germany.
 
In fact the German front line failed to reach the Volga on a stretch of about five miles in a city whose riverfront stretched close to fifteen miles. By the time they were surrounded the Germans had managed to capture almost all the Stalingrad.

As long as they dont control the entire city, they haven't taken it.
 
So what would happen if Stalingrad DID fall?

The Soviets launch their counteroffensive as per the plans and OTL. Those troops were carefully husbanded reserves; the troops fighting in the city only played the role of bait. The 6. Armee is surrounded as per OTL.
 
The Soviets launch their counteroffensive as per the plans and OTL. Those troops were carefully husbanded reserves; the troops fighting in the city only played the role of bait. The 6. Armee is surrounded as per OTL.

Not a complete disagreement here, but a question:

If Stalingrad falls, it seems odd to me that they would sit tight there instead of attempting to move past the location--perhaps to Astrakhan, on the Caspian Coast.

My question, then, is the Soviet Counterattack was not launched immediately after Stalingrad was attacked. If Germany continues to move Sixth Army and attempts something like Astrakhan or it sends reinforcements to try to reach Baku, I could very well see the Soviets being forced to shelve their buildup in lieu for a quicker and less effective counterattack.

How flexible is the Soviet response? And does a redirection of Sixth Army to another objective change OTL's campaigning entirely?
 
Not a complete disagreement here, but a question:

If Stalingrad falls, it seems odd to me that they would sit tight there instead of attempting to move past the location--perhaps to Astrakhan, on the Caspian Coast.

If Stalingrad falls, considering that it didn't in OTL, it seems odd to me that the German troops in the area aren't completely exhausted and depleted. It also seems odd to me that this happens before the rasputitsa, which will block any strategic movement.

My question, then, is the Soviet Counterattack was not launched immediately after Stalingrad was attacked.

No, in fact. But it seems odd to me that, considering how things went in OTL, the Germans take Stalingrad on the fly, just as they attack it.

If Germany continues to move Sixth Army and attempts something like Astrakhan or it sends reinforcements to try to reach Baku,

And if we stretch credibility and suppose the Germans do take Stalingrad by assault, then the next oddness is that they can scrape up the logisitical lift to send reinforcements towards Baku. In OTL, the troops sent in that direction advanced in sputters and halts not just because of Soviet opposition, but because of the usual reason, lack of fuel.
 
If Stalingrad falls, considering that it didn't in OTL, it seems odd to me that the German troops in the area aren't completely exhausted and depleted. It also seems odd to me that this happens before the rasputitsa, which will block any strategic movement.



No, in fact. But it seems odd to me that, considering how things went in OTL, the Germans take Stalingrad on the fly, just as they attack it.



And if we stretch credibility and suppose the Germans do take Stalingrad by assault, then the next oddness is that they can scrape up the logisitical lift to send reinforcements towards Baku. In OTL, the troops sent in that direction advanced in sputters and halts not just because of Soviet opposition, but because of the usual reason, lack of fuel.

I suppose I'm confusing you, but partly its because the OP has specified very little--Stalingrad might have fallen quickly or get seen as indefensible if the Wehrmacht attacks around it.

If Stalingrad is a quick grab, I really think Germany either trying to cut off the whole Caucasus or salvage the drive to Baku (which I fully agree would simply increase the scale of the failed drive) would be plausible next moves.

If Stalingrad falls by assault I wonder if they get enough reinforcements in time to reconstruct their ranks before the Soviet counterattack (That's November of 1942, I think...but Stalingrad was attacked in September.)

One thing does come to mind--Stalingrad won't be the decisive battle of WW2, with over a million men committed on both sides. Perhaps, though, it might be something nearby--like the breakout attempt...
 
The Germans intended to use the Don as a barrier shielding their advance into the Caucasus. Stalingrad became the point where they failed and the Russians kept a bridgehead (to be honest, the Italians and Romanians also left pockets and bridgeheads in front of their respective positions).

If the Germans had eliminated those bridgeheads, and had time and resources to help their allies eliminate theirs, then the Germans are far better off (more time to react, among other things) when Operation Uranus starts.
 
In fact the German front line failed to reach the Volga on a stretch of about five miles in a city whose riverfront stretched close to fifteen miles. By the time they were surrounded the Germans had managed to capture almost all the Stalingrad.
I'm not sure you are correct. If my memory serves me well, Germans did reach Volga in several points, mostly North or South of city core (as much as term "core" could be applied to ribbon-like city, more a collection of several boroughs under single administration). However, they never managed to secure as much as convenient observation point to direct artillery fire againt Volga crossing. Numerous Soviet memoirs say that German barrage was aimless even during daytime if Soviets managed to chase off German observation planes. Taking into account local terrain (right bank of Volga is pretty high, making observation of the river very hard from any point more than couple of hundreds meters from shore), it means that Germans didn't really control much of Volga bank.
 
I suppose I'm confusing you, but partly its because the OP has specified very little--Stalingrad might have fallen quickly or get seen as indefensible if the Wehrmacht attacks around it.

If Stalingrad is a quick grab, ...

Yes, if the German master plan for 1942 was radically changed, then maybe Stalingrad would fall, and possibly even early on in the campaign for that year. But then the question wouldn't be "what if Stalingrad fell?", which seems to imply "within the OTL" basic situation". The question would be, as per above, "what if the Germans changed their plans for 1942?". Which as far as I understand it, wasn't what the OP was aiming at.
 
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