The Fall of China

Would it be possible for China to be conquered by various European powers and if so when is the earliest this could happen?

The Mongols and Manchurians managed to conquer China. They had smaller numbers and more primitive technology than the Europeans. It'd definitely be an enormously difficult task and would require a large amount of luck for an appropriate opening to present itself.
 
It was mainly the US that enforced an open China, and even then the different European powers got spheres of influence and treaty ports. If the USA never got independence then I think it's likely China would have been carved up.
 
It was mainly the US that enforced an open China, and even then the different European powers got spheres of influence and treaty ports. If the USA never got independence then I think it's likely China would have been carved up.

Wasn't the British Opium Wars the things that opened up China by force?
 

RousseauX

Donor
Would it be possible for China to be conquered by various European powers and if so when is the earliest this could happen?

The Mongols and Manchurians managed to conquer China. They had smaller numbers and more primitive technology than the Europeans. It'd definitely be an enormously difficult task and would require a large amount of luck for an appropriate opening to present itself.
yeah this definitely could have happened in the 1800s, the thing that kept them from it was the imperial government was useful to the European powers: they all signed the unequal treaties with the Qing government in Beijing and thus would have lost their privileges and had to start all over again if the government fell.

If the central government collapsed and the European powers can work out who gets what then yeah a partition was definitely in the cards.
 
After the Trans-Siberian railway is completed, if Russia and Japan are in an agreement on a way to divide China, there won't be much the Chinese will be able to do to stop them and the European Powers will have no choice but to come to an understanding with those two if the want a slice of the pie. Kind of like the Scramble for Africa.
 

RousseauX

Donor
After the Trans-Siberian railway is completed, if Russia and Japan are in an agreement on a way to divide China, there won't be much the Chinese will be able to do to stop them and the European Powers will have no choice but to come to an understanding with those two if the want a slice of the pie. Kind of like the Scramble for Africa.
The trans-siberian railway is overrated: Russia's power projection in the far east was never that big until 1930s. Russia and Japan can't challenge the US/UK/Germany/France who would be against them gobbling up the lion's share of China for themselves
 
The trans-siberian railway is overrated: Russia's power projection in the far east was never that big until 1930s. Russia and Japan can't challenge the US/UK/Germany/France who would be against them gobbling up the lion's share of China for themselves

Sorry, I thought that there were hundreds of thousands of Russian and Japanese soldiers duking it out in Manchuria from 1904-1905. There is no power on the Planet during this time that has the power projection to oppose those two in China if they work together. And why would France and Germany be opposed? Kaiser William's imperialist ambitions were well known and France would support their ally, especially if they get a slice as a reward. Of all the European Powers, only Britain would have stood up for keeping the status quo in China and if they are starring down a 4 vs 1 showdown they would back down and try to get the best deal they could.

And there would be no getting a "lions share." The Russians and Japanese would be smarter than that. From maps I've seen before, Russia would get the Northern States, Japan would get a foothold over Fujian, and the Europeans would get the rest.
 
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Maybe Russia could get shafted by the other European powers in trade and completely cut out? Then, they could invade Qing near the end of its lifecycle, install a Romanov Chinese Dynasty (named something else), and forcibly put down the inevitable "anti-foreign" rebellion. Inevitably, either an organized rebel movement backed by the rest of Europe would crop up, or Europe would straight up invade if Russia blocks the rest of Europe from their puppet-China. However, if they keep trade open and flowing, especially if their emperor allows a steady, European-favorable opium-for-luxuries trade, Europe would probably support it for the most part (except for maybe Germany.)

I don't think that China would last very long after an alt-Great War or be very big, but its spin-off effects would be very interesting indeed.
 
Would it be possible for China to be conquered by various European powers and if so when is the earliest this could happen?

The Mongols and Manchurians managed to conquer China. They had smaller numbers and more primitive technology than the Europeans. It'd definitely be an enormously difficult task and would require a large amount of luck for an appropriate opening to present itself.
The Mongols and Manchurians (not to mention the other not really Chinese states that ended up controlling China or parts of it through the millennia) had power bases right next to China, an understanding of Chinese customs, and invariable ended up somewhat Sinicized.

Sorry, I thought that there were hundreds of thousands of Russian and Japanese soldiers duking it out in Manchuria from 1904-1905. There is no power on the Planet during this time that can oppose those two in China if they work together. And why would France and Germany be opposed? Kaiser William's imperialist ambitions were well known and France would support their ally, especially if they get a slice as a reward. Of all the European Powers, only Britain would have stood up for keeping the status quo in China.
1. That was post-1900s, not pre. Better tech, more money, Trans-Siberian Railroad.

2. They both nearly went bankrupt in the process, mind you.

Plus Japan wasn't actually able to fully annex China when it tried a couple decades later, even with better technology and the Chinese divided amongst themselves (Warlords, then Central Plains, then Xinjiang, then the KMT and Communists). Though, to be fair, the Chinese did have American and British aid but that'd probably be the same here, anyways.

Neither the UK nor Germany want Russia getting a slice of China (Outer Manchuria was barely populated, not like the rest of Manchuria and China Proper), France doesn't want Germany getting anything, the US wants Open Doors, and so on.

Each one would like to annex parts of China but the status quo was still far better than letting one or two just run wild (because how would Germany and France actually defend their shares from Japan or Russia?)

China's way more valuable than Africa, both for raw resources and for captive markets, and you don't have any figures on Bismarck's level after the Iron Chancellor got sacked. It's hard to see the European Great Powers actually cooperate on something like that.

But I'd say it's not likely for it to happen pre-1900. No Trans-Siberian Railroad would make things a bit difficult for Russia, after all, seeing as they'd increase their population by 10% from taking just Manchuria and the population definitely won't be happy about having new masters. Japan's not strong enough to fight a Qing Empire in a battle of survival (Europeans thought the Qing were going to crush the Japanese in the 1890s Sino-Japanese War) and it doesn't have enough capital to have a major extended war (without foreign capital from the UK and US, who'd both oppose the war). UK opposes moves from France and Germany, Austria-Hungary is a nonfactor, US won't want it, Italy is a nonfactor probably.

Also, putting down nationalist rebellions would not be cheap.

Maybe Russia could get shafted by the other European powers in trade and completely cut out? Then, they could invade Qing near the end of its lifecycle, install a Romanov Chinese Dynasty (named something else), and forcibly put down the inevitable "anti-foreign" rebellion. Inevitably, either an organized rebel movement backed by the rest of Europe would crop up, or Europe would straight up invade if Russia blocks the rest of Europe from their puppet-China. However, if they keep trade open and flowing, especially if their emperor allows a steady, European-favorable opium-for-luxuries trade, Europe would probably support it for the most part (except for maybe Germany.)

I don't think that China would last very long after an alt-Great War or be very big, but its spin-off effects would be very interesting indeed.
Russian Chinese dynasty? Westminster would have a collective aneurism. As would Tokyo, Berlin, etc.
 
What if the Qing collapse earlier and bloodier, like another warring states period? A divided China could be easy pickings for Europe during its imperialist phase.
 
Russian Chinese dynasty? Westminster would have a collective aneurism. As would Tokyo, Berlin, etc.

Never said they had to hold it, and an army moving in to "intervene" in Beijing could topple the Empire quite easily. I did hint at this kicking off an alt-Great War, after all. It would be a lot of "interesting" conflict in China's region, with a powerless Romanov Emperor, rebellions and warlords everywhere, the Europeans fighting each other on the banks of the Two Rivers, and Japan probably invading Korea, Russian Siberia, and Manchuria.
 
Neither the UK nor Germany want Russia getting a slice of China (Outer Manchuria was barely populated, not like the rest of Manchuria and China Proper), France doesn't want Germany getting anything, the US wants Open Doors, and so on.

Each one would like to annex parts of China but the status quo was still far better than letting one or two just run wild (because how would Germany and France actually defend their shares from Japan or Russia?)

This is why I suggested a British America. Imagine America becomes multiple dominions, never develops it's anticolonial ideology and it's merchants benefit from shutting out non-Brits. I don't see how France/Germany could keep in the game.
 
This is why I suggested a British America. Imagine America becomes multiple dominions, never develops it's anticolonial ideology and it's merchants benefit from shutting out non-Brits. I don't see how France/Germany could keep in the game.

So, the Two Georges scenario then?
 
How about during the fall of the Ming in 1618? China would be weakened then.
Are any of the European powers even in a position to project that far with a major military expedition? China wasn't nearly as technologically backwards at this point (compared to Europe) and logistics in that period aren't exactly easy to organize. There's also the issue of actually shipping over large numbers of troops during the age of sail, so English and French (both lacking in eastern ports at this point) attempts, I think, would be discounted. Russia's too far away and there's no easy way to traverse Siberia with the needed tens or hundreds of thousands of men to fight Mongols, Manchu, and Ming. I'm will mention neither Denmark-Norway nor Sweden on account of population, distance, lack of ports in Asia, and just the fact they're busy killing their neighbors or getting killed at this point. HRE isn't very naval, Italy's disunified, Ottomans have the Persians and HRE to care about and never really bothered with territories outside of the Mediterranean+Red Sea (not that they could, Portugal+Netherlands+Spain would sink them).

As for the Portuguese, Spanish, and Dutch, they're embroiled in the 30 Year's War at this point so I'd say it'd unlikely they'd be able to divert enough forces to intervene in China. I'm aware that Spain had ambitions on the Far East but they're a bit wrapped up in Europe. By the time they're finished with the war, the Manchu are already on the warpath and, should they still desire south China, it's a bit doubtful the Spanish would be able to repel the Qing (mainly because they're not going to be able to reinforce in a timely manner and the Qing have endless manpower from all the Ming defectors. Probably will have even more of them, seeing the choice between the somewhat more tolerant Manchu who already have a good number of Han supporters and incentives and the loot+god driven Spaniards who have no local support). Not to say that the Qing weren't driven by loot but they didn't force their religion on the Han nor did they intend on making China a resource colony the way that the Spanish did in all their conquered regions. Not sure the Portuguese post-Iberian Union and the Netherlands have the manpower or resources to try the same either.
 
Was the fall of China by the horse nomads inevitable? Fall is defined as most of China falling under the control of these invaders.

It seems that the defenses of China were lowered by traitors twice by two consecutive Chinese ruled dynasties leading to their conquest. These dynasties being the Song and Ming (the Yuan, which goes between the two doesn't count as a Chinese ruled dynasty as it was ruled by Mongols). Was that an unfortunate fluke or an indicator of some underlying factor which made a Chinese conquest very likely?

If the timeline involves Jin defeating Genghis Khan, is a Chinese ruled China still doomed from that point on?
 
One event could very well be related to the other. China was pillaged and occupied. This weakened China and made one Mongol faction, the Yuan stronger. Yuan became powerful at the same time from that conquest, in fact they became most powerful of the Mongol factions which shows how much of a boost they got from conquering China. The weakness of China was so bad that it contributed to the Chinese turning away from the ocean, a massive source of income and power to properly defend themselves. This further crippled China who had to do this to defend against the Northern Yuan, who were rich and powerful thanks to the occupation of China.

This eventually accelerated China's descent into decline and increased the chances of a second betrayal. To make matters worse, a weaker China couldn't fight Yuan as strongly so Yuan didn't get hurt as badly or need to spend as much of their resources prior to China's fall, making them even more powerful still.

So events conspired to compound an initial moment of weakness. Kind of like a horrible version of accelerating returns which sees China being smacked repeatedly with what was once their own wealth.
 
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