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I have previously questioned whether the fall of Atlanta really saved Lincoln, https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/lhaK6kHvIWs/fZctLnZ6d0QJ but this article goes further. I argued that while Lincoln may have been right in the summer of 1864 in thinking his re-election was unlikely, subsequent developments--Fremont's withdrawal, Sheridan's victories in the Shenandoah Valley and the Democrats' adoption of a "peace" platform its own presidential candidate repudiated--would have assured him of reelection even without the fall of Atlanta. This article goes further and seems to argue that even if the election had been held in August, Lincoln would have won. It relies heavily on the fact that Republicans did about as well in 1864 state elections before the fall of Atlanta as afterwards; but given the small number of elections in the first eight months of 1864, I am not sure whether we should let that fact outweigh the pessimistic views of Lincoln and most other Republicans in the summer of 1864.