The Falklands War & Vulcans...

Ascension was being used as a staging post for aircraft and ships moving south.

So, unless they got their retaliation in very quickly, they would be bombing the stable after the horse has bolted. And it's still not in Argentina's interest to expand the range of the conflict.

Cheers,
Nigel.
 
One other thing that nobody's mention

Wideawake airfield, was, and is a joint USAF/RAF facility. Do the Argentines really want to bomb a US airbase?
 
So, unless they got their retaliation in very quickly, they would be bombing the stable after the horse has bolted. And it's still not in Argentina's interest to expand the range of the conflict.

Cheers,
Nigel.
There were movements at Ascension throughout the whole war. The US may, though, be annoyed if Argentina do somehow manage to blow up their runway.

I agree that a successful reverse Black Buck is extremely unlikely, for the following reasons:
As I have said, the attackers will probably get shot down.
There's no real point- the attack on MPA was a warning that Buenos Aires was in range of a British attack, and caused Argentine Air Force fighters to be withdrawn to defend it. There is no such warning here.
In the unlikely event that Argentina have the tankers for the raid, they are going to be put to better use elsewhere- like tanking Skyhawks.

Also, here's a big problem that no-one has mentioned yet- Argentina does not appear to have been capable of converting aircraft to refuel in mid-air. If they had been, they would have converted their Daggers and Mirages before converting Vulcans- they only had enough fuel for 5 minutes over the target, and couldn't use afterburner because it would burn too much fuel.
 
Also, here's a big problem that no-one has mentioned yet- Argentina does not appear to have been capable of converting aircraft to refuel in mid-air. If they had been, they would have converted their Daggers and Mirages before converting Vulcans- they only had enough fuel for 5 minutes over the target, and couldn't use afterburner because it would burn too much fuel.

The RAF was only *just*able to convert Vulcans for mid air refuelling -- the mid-air refuelling systems had been removed -- and only because the RAF junk yards and scrap heaps never throw anything anyway.

I also believe some parts (although this may have been those use to fit ALARM to Vulcans) were recovered from a museumed Vulcan in the USA.

As I said before, the saga of the retro-fitted parts is all in that most excellent book, Vulcan 607.
 
The RAF had used IFR on its Vulcans for years, if anything was removed it was just the probes, all the plumbing etc was still in the aircraft. The Nimrods that were converted to IFR receivers used Vulcan probes fitted to an escape hatch which then ran the fuel in a hose back through the cabin along the floor to where it went into one of the tanks. Pretty didgy/nifty setup built with no notice.

BTW wasn't the sale for just a handful of Vulcans? The Brits would still have dozens to choose from when the war broke out.

Argie Vulcans could lead to a much more lethal Falklands scenario. IOTL by the time the war had ended the Brits had commissioned a 3rd carrier, bought another 8 Sea Harriers into service, modified 14 GR3s for carrier ops and fitted them to use LGBs and Shrike ARMs, conducting trials with a pair of Sea King AEW, bought 5 phalanx CIWS sets and installed 2 on Illustrious and was hurrying with its VC10 tanker conversions. If the Argies had gotten a handful of Vulcan pre-war the Brit response may have waited until these and other useful projects were ready to go before heading south.
 
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The most simple way of getting ride of Argentina Vulcans : no flight spares !
The Vulcan was rather complex, and the only country with Vulcans in its inventory was... Great Britain.

No spares for the Olympus or airframes or whatever subsystem, no flights.

But Argentina's air industry was advanced enough to maintain their A-4 Skyhawks, so maybe they could have figured out a way of modifying the Vulcans to keep them flying. They also did keep their Type 42 destroyers running long after the Falklands......
 
Argentina would need to sort out refueling problems for its aircraft before they'd even try and hit Ascension, and as its been pointed out, they needed to deal with the IFR for their Mirages, Daggers and Skyhawks, as well as more refueling aircraft.

If they had managed to get those Exocets the French stopped (Thatcher must have had something to do with that), and managed to convert some 707s to tankers (Aerolineas Argentinas had a pile of them in 1982), then Argentina could have easily been more effective, without the Vulcans.

Worst scenario possible here is that Argentina invades the Falklands, the Brits immediately say they are coming, and Argentina decides to hit Ascension to slow them down. This risks the US getting into it, but if it works Britain would have a much tougher time putting a force at the Falklands.

The Argentine Air Force would not be so stupid as send bombers without fighters, so they'd get 5-6 707s flying as IFRs, then send Vulcans and Canberras, along with Daggers to cover their backs, and refuels them en route. Flying over Latin America is not really a problem, as many Latin American nations were sympathetic with the Argentines.

Result is a hit on Ascension which does do some damage. Assuming the Argentine AF has 8-10 Vulcans and its 14 Canberras, which is a fairly large number of bombs dropped on the base, though the Daggers would be busy indeed trying to stop British aircraft.

The knowledge of Argentine strike capability forces the Brits to crash course their VC-10s, and tell the Argentines they will respond in kind. Better IFR however could allow The Victors would work as a stop-gap, but you couldn't do that more than a time or two before they run out of airframe life. You'd get air battles thousands of miles from home by both sides, which also forces both to watch their backs from a long ways out.
 
IIRC the ArgAF had only 2 707s, but they weren't hard to find 2nd-hand to do conversions ,so they could probably get 5 or 6 pretty easily. But since the decision to invade the Falklands was made at best 11 months before the war I'd doubt this is enough time to buy and convert 707s into tankers, put probes onto the Mirage/Dagger/Canberra fleet and buy and get Vulcans into service.

But if all this did happen the British were a great power, with their own significant arms industry, there is no way the Argies could out-escalate the British if the stakes got that high. As I mentioned in a earlier post by June the RN could field 3 carriers with 28 Sea Harriers and 14 GR3s and 2 AEW2 Sea Kings. I doubt the ArgAF could stand up to this size CBG if it went after mainland targets.
 
Argentina would need to sort out refueling problems for its aircraft before they'd even try and hit Ascension, and as its been pointed out, they needed to deal with the IFR for their Mirages, Daggers and Skyhawks, as well as more refueling aircraft.
The Skyhawks could refuel in mid-ar- they needed it to get to the target!
 
Argentina would need to sort out refueling problems for its aircraft before they'd even try and hit Ascension, and as its been pointed out, they needed to deal with the IFR for their Mirages, Daggers and Skyhawks, as well as more refueling aircraft.

If they had managed to get those Exocets the French stopped (Thatcher must have had something to do with that), and managed to convert some 707s to tankers (Aerolineas Argentinas had a pile of them in 1982), then Argentina could have easily been more effective, without the Vulcans.

Worst scenario possible here is that Argentina invades the Falklands, the Brits immediately say they are coming, and Argentina decides to hit Ascension to slow them down. This risks the US getting into it, but if it works Britain would have a much tougher time putting a force at the Falklands.

The Argentine Air Force would not be so stupid as send bombers without fighters, so they'd get 5-6 707s flying as IFRs, then send Vulcans and Canberras, along with Daggers to cover their backs, and refuels them en route. Flying over Latin America is not really a problem, as many Latin American nations were sympathetic with the Argentines.

Result is a hit on Ascension which does do some damage. Assuming the Argentine AF has 8-10 Vulcans and its 14 Canberras, which is a fairly large number of bombs dropped on the base, though the Daggers would be busy indeed trying to stop British aircraft.

The knowledge of Argentine strike capability forces the Brits to crash course their VC-10s, and tell the Argentines they will respond in kind. Better IFR however could allow The Victors would work as a stop-gap, but you couldn't do that more than a time or two before they run out of airframe life. You'd get air battles thousands of miles from home by both sides, which also forces both to watch their backs from a long ways out.

How many tankers are you going to need to refuel 22 to 24 bombers (Vulcans and Canberras), plus escorting fighters? This sounds ridiculously unfeasible even if the whole of South America entered the war on Argentina's side?

And you really think other South America countries, no matter how sympathetic, are going to help Argentina bomb a US facility?
 
Probably they would have been white elephants, not a lot of use for attacking ships and precision bombing and fairly vlunerable. Probably not able to fly in below the radar. More use for bombing from a height which means if they tried to bomb Ascencion island assuming the refuelling problem could be solved they could have hit American bases in error.

Probably they would have been a drain on resources and sapped the Argentinian airforce. The British Vulcans were more used to demonsrtate we could hit the mainland if necessary
 
There would never be any case for hitting the Argentinian mainland. The political fall-out would be too great; ditto any attempt by Argentine to attack Ascension Island
 
Had the Argentine dicatorship planned for an actual war they would, if they wanted such planes, have ordered them earlier (I have little doubt we would have sold them- Thatcher loved Fascist dicators especially if they wanted to buy British weapons)

Of course had the aggressors in this case planned properly they might have checked about the fusing on their bombs an this would have had a far great impact.
 
IIRC the ArgAF had only 2 707s, but they weren't hard to find 2nd-hand to do conversions ,so they could probably get 5 or 6 pretty easily. But since the decision to invade the Falklands was made at best 11 months before the war I'd doubt this is enough time to buy and convert 707s into tankers, put probes onto the Mirage/Dagger/Canberra fleet and buy and get Vulcans into service.

A year is not nearly enough to get all of the stuff needed here. It would take three years at least all of these aircraft.

The idea I see is that in late 1978 or 1979, with Argentina's growing nuclear program which they had at the time, they decide they need to gain a long-distance strike capability for the Air Force. Hence, they add take a few ex-Aerolineas Argentinas 707s into the Air Force and modify them to be tankers, not dissimilar to what the South African Air Force did at roughly the same time. With this, the Argentine Air Force installs air-to-air refueling on all of its fighter and bomber aircraft, including its Mirage IIIs and Canberras.

When Britain makes the offer to sell the Avro Vulcans to Argentina, the Air Force goes for it and buys 6-8 Vulcans. By now, the junta is slipping in power, and makes the fateful decision to take over the Falklands. The original security forces on the Falklands are very easily beaten. The Air Force shows off its new capabilities by easily sending its Mirage IIIs, Skyhawks, Daggers and Canberras around the islands. The Argentines first major project in the Falklands is to extend the runway at Port Stanley, allowing the fast jets to use them.

Britain of course knows of the Vulcans, Canberras and the now much-longer-flying Argentine Air Force. They also know that the Air Force's KC-130s could be based at Stanley with the fast jets, enabling a very long range for air cover. Thatcher of course orders the Brits to take the Falklands back. She doesn't think that the Argentine Air Force can take on the Royal Navy's task force.

In this scenario, the Argentines will have a much longer air cover, which may also allow ASW patrols, thus perhaps saving General Belgrano.

But if all this did happen the British were a great power, with their own significant arms industry, there is no way the Argies could out-escalate the British if the stakes got that high. As I mentioned in a earlier post by June the RN could field 3 carriers with 28 Sea Harriers and 14 GR3s and 2 AEW2 Sea Kings. I doubt the ArgAF could stand up to this size CBG if it went after mainland targets.

But if the Argentine Air Force is basing off the Falklands and/or has better IFR capabilties, the reach of their aircraft grows dramatically. Combine that with bombs that work and more Exocets, and they may well get the task force cut down by the Argentines. Thatcher would stand tall in the face of this, but Britain may get to the point of saying "this isn't worth it." This is particularly so if Hermes or one of the Invincibles gets hit.
 
IOTL the Port Stanely airstrip was very much underused. It was 4100ft, and the Argies extended it by 500ft with PSP, they may also have had an arrestor system available. This was evaluated by Super Etenard pilots and found unsuitable, especially with braking in the wet. However what it could have been is a shuttle airfield; planes would take off from the mainland heavily loaded with more ordinance than OTL, flown their missions with multiple passes and afterburner, landed at PSA light perhaps with the arrestor, refuelled with enough fuel to get back to the mainland.

This ommission is typical of the Argies war effort, there were so many things they could have done without getting more equipment that I think getting more equipment wouldn't have helped much.
 
The Vulcans were Britains nuclear deterrent though, if Argentina was to try and buy Vulcans while building nuclear bombs, is Britain really going to sell?

:)
 
The Vulcans were Britains nuclear deterrent though, if Argentina was to try and buy Vulcans while building nuclear bombs, is Britain really going to sell?

:)

Britain's nuclear deterrent passed to the RN in 1970. The only UK nuclear weapons available for the RAF in 1982 was the WE.177 series of nuclear bombs.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The most depressing thing about this whole thread is that I really just put it down because it was this very "counter-factual" sounding thing I read in a history of the war, and I'm gonna be remembered on this board forever who thought that you could master a strategic bomber force in a month.

:(
 
The most depressing thing about this whole thread is that I really just put it down because it was this very "counter-factual" sounding thing I read in a history of the war, and I'm gonna be remembered on this board forever who thought that you could master a strategic bomber force in a month.

:(

Meh, don't worry about it. I've written some dumb stuff, too, don't worry. :)

Besides, we don't remember embarrassing things, we blame Thande for them. :D
 
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