So now, having re-read relevant parts of the TL and getting some important feedback from EBR, I think it's time I have a go at speculating about parties and electoral blocs again.
OK, so the various parties form 3 or 4 different blocs. So by 1974, we'll probably have:
1) The Communist Bloc. This will probably not even really be a "bloc", because the American Communist Party will be by far the most dominant far-left party. They'll be joined by the Worker's Party, the Communist Worker's Party, the Independent Communist Labor League, and the Washington Commonwealth Federation.
The American Communist Party will likely grow weaker over time. Communism appeals best to those who have been severely screwed over by capitalism, hence its appeal to the unemployed in the 1930s. Given that the Third and Fourth Republics are far more committed to a welfare state and curbing the excesses of capitalism, then communism itself will seem less appealing. That being said, the Soviet states will likely have powerful political machines going, so that gives them the edge for now. And because the state soviets appoint their House representatives, the ACP will have a voice on the national level for quite some time. But their power will erode. They'll lose the states they conquered late in the war first; Virginia, the autonomous counties of West Virginia and North Carolina, etc. The rural areas of their base states will go next. They'll likely control the cities for quite some time, hard to say about the state governments themselves. But unless there's another economic crisis, they'll become less relevant with each election cycle.
As for the other communist parties, I don't see the Worker's Party gaining much ground anywhere. The two Stalinist parties might have a better shot, perhaps in the former ASR and among the more radical segment of New Africa, especially if any of those states use party-lists. I don't know much about the Washington Commonwealth Federation, so I'm not gonna guess anything, other then they might end up forming an alliance or caucus with the ACP.
2) The "Continental Bloc". This will consist of the parties that made up the Continental Congress: The Commonwealth Party, the Non-Partisan League, and local branches of the Democratic Party. They will probably only really be a "bloc" in the sense that they will heavily promote rural issues. More likely then not, the other parties (Farmer-Labor and Progressive parties possibly excepted) won't bother running candidates in these areas. Perhaps the Non-Partisan League will become the "left-wing" party, and the Commonwealth Party the "right-wing" party (judging by the fact that many southern Democrats seemed to have jumped ship to the Commonwealth, especially in Texas), and while both parties have a focus primarily on rural issues, but will caucus with other parties on other, more national issues. Given that coalitions will be very important in the Balkanized political landscape, this ensures that the other parties will have to pay attention to the Great Plains if they want to get legislation passed. Maybe this could prevent those states from suffering from the large economic decline they are experiencing OTL.
3) The "Labor/Socialist/Social Democratic" Bloc. This will be all the parties that came from the Left-Blues: The Socialists, the CIO, the Democrats, the various Labor parties, etc. These parties all seem to have their regional power bases, and will stay out of each others way regionally and co-operate on the national stage, for House and Presidential elections.
The Socialists might become the home for the anti-authoritarian left, basically anyone who would be associated with the various OTL 1960s left-wing causes. They would probably be against the various political machines of the other former Blue parties, and could become the "left opposition" in the Soviet states. Given the influence of Norman Thomas, they could also become the voice of pacifism and anti-war activism in case the US ever gets involved in foreign conflicts again. They might even form the basis of an ITTL Green movement. EBR mentioned that they co-operate with American Labor and Union Labor. So either electoral alliances, or electoral fusion in the states that allow it.
The Progressive Party and Farmer-Labor Party have their own bases in Wisconsin and Minnesota, respectively, with some expansion into the rest of the Midwest. Again, they'll stay out of each others way, and will actively help each other when politically expedient.
The CIO is an interesting case. Because they are a political party & union rolled into one, then they have the biggest potential for corruption. It was mentioned they operate their own schools, their own banks, and have official state sanction. While the federal government will likely come down on them slightly, they probably have great sway over state and local governments. I could see them becoming the dominant party in former ASR territory and White territory that didn't become part of New Africa, if only because it will be easiest for them to organize. I'm not sure how much they will compete with the other left-wing parties on a regional level, but will likely work with them on the national field.
I don't see much hope for the Democrats. The other parties seem to be more organized, have stronger power bases, and many of the more prominent liberal Democrats seem to have either migrated to the Republicans, or joined one of the other left-wing parties. They probably have scattered pockets of dominance across the nation, and most likely won't fold, but their glory days are forever behind them.
This bloc will be the one most prone to infighting, if only because, with the possible exception of the CIO, none of them have any clear advantage over the others. Presidential elections must be fun
. In order to avoid splitting the left-wing vote come November, what likely happens is that each party will field their own candidates early in the season, but they will probably eventually withdraw and rally around whichever candidate seems to be the most popular in the polls, with perhaps the second-most popular party gaining the Vice-Presidential ticket.
I see two other parties cooperating with this bloc. The Non-Partisan League will likely work with them on various issues, in exchange for support for the Plains states. The New Africa National Party could easily become an important partner as well, given that they have a similar economic platform to the former Blue parties, and they face competition from the communist parties, and from the GOP.
4) The "Conservative" Bloc. This will be more of a catch-all bloc for the more conservative parties. I see the Republican Party as being the dominant party in the bloc, as they represent a good centrist position against the the other left-wing parties, and are a solid opponent to the ACP in the Soviet states, without trying to bring back the economic conservatism of the Second Republic. They will probably be joined by the Commonwealth Party, the Florida Democratic Party, the Deseret Party, whatever party controls Maine (I still think that Sewall will create a "Maine Republican Party" that is far more capitalistic then the national branch of the GOP), and New American Party. This will likely be the weakest bloc out there, because it's members come from almost all sides in the war (The GOP from the Blues, the Commonwealth from the Continentals, the Florida Democrats the Whites, the Deseret and New American parties the Khakis).
The Republicans will be the dominant party of the bloc by far. Most likely, the other parties rally around them come Presidential election time. I can easily see them gaining the White House from time to time, especially given that they'll probably try to tie their party to Eisenhower, given their similar views on the economy, corruption, and Ike's VP being a Republican.
The Florida Democrats will be tricky. Because of their ties to the Whites, and the fact that they seem to be the only state left willing to allow private racial discrimination, they might end up becoming a rather toxic partner to the GOP, especially given the Republican's vocal support for Civil Rights. While they may make it to 1974, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP one day decides to launch an intense campaign to make Florida Republican, thus shoring up their base in the state and bringing to end an embarrassing partner.
The Deseret Party will likely be around for quite some time. While they won't have support outside of Utah, they will be dominant there. They're guaranteed to have strong ties to the LDS Church, and will rank among the most conservative of parties.
Maine will be interesting. Again, either Sewall makes his own party or the Maine branch of the GOP will be far more libertarian then the rest of the party. But even if candidates get elected on a normal GOP platform, it's safe to say that Maine will get no further left-wing then that.
The New American Party seems to be the most conservative party out there. Their base is in Guantanamo, the former territory of the 104th Division (excepting Utah of course), and Alaska. Because of their explicit connection to the Second Republic, they'll likely be anathema in the rest of the country. But they'll stick around, however small they may be. They might even become the main party in Maine (ah, puns) and will probably have a devoted following among some of the remaining white population in New Africa (if the New African government gives the party ballot access of course).
So there's my speculations, predictions, and thoughts on the state of politics in the future of this TL. And here's some other thoughts I had:
How do the Communists treat the various Amish and Mennonite communities in the Soviet states?
Does the 1944 Constitution have a Second Amendment (meaning an equivalent to the OTL Second Amendment)?
In New Africa, how involved in the government are the white citizens? Are they mistreated? Do whites make up a large percentage of government workers and police forces? And what's the ratio of whites-to-blacks in New Africa?
Does Guantanamo Bay have open borders with Cuba? It would make sense, seeing as how trade with Cuba will likely be the city's economic lifeline.
OK, so the various parties form 3 or 4 different blocs. So by 1974, we'll probably have:
1) The Communist Bloc. This will probably not even really be a "bloc", because the American Communist Party will be by far the most dominant far-left party. They'll be joined by the Worker's Party, the Communist Worker's Party, the Independent Communist Labor League, and the Washington Commonwealth Federation.
The American Communist Party will likely grow weaker over time. Communism appeals best to those who have been severely screwed over by capitalism, hence its appeal to the unemployed in the 1930s. Given that the Third and Fourth Republics are far more committed to a welfare state and curbing the excesses of capitalism, then communism itself will seem less appealing. That being said, the Soviet states will likely have powerful political machines going, so that gives them the edge for now. And because the state soviets appoint their House representatives, the ACP will have a voice on the national level for quite some time. But their power will erode. They'll lose the states they conquered late in the war first; Virginia, the autonomous counties of West Virginia and North Carolina, etc. The rural areas of their base states will go next. They'll likely control the cities for quite some time, hard to say about the state governments themselves. But unless there's another economic crisis, they'll become less relevant with each election cycle.
As for the other communist parties, I don't see the Worker's Party gaining much ground anywhere. The two Stalinist parties might have a better shot, perhaps in the former ASR and among the more radical segment of New Africa, especially if any of those states use party-lists. I don't know much about the Washington Commonwealth Federation, so I'm not gonna guess anything, other then they might end up forming an alliance or caucus with the ACP.
2) The "Continental Bloc". This will consist of the parties that made up the Continental Congress: The Commonwealth Party, the Non-Partisan League, and local branches of the Democratic Party. They will probably only really be a "bloc" in the sense that they will heavily promote rural issues. More likely then not, the other parties (Farmer-Labor and Progressive parties possibly excepted) won't bother running candidates in these areas. Perhaps the Non-Partisan League will become the "left-wing" party, and the Commonwealth Party the "right-wing" party (judging by the fact that many southern Democrats seemed to have jumped ship to the Commonwealth, especially in Texas), and while both parties have a focus primarily on rural issues, but will caucus with other parties on other, more national issues. Given that coalitions will be very important in the Balkanized political landscape, this ensures that the other parties will have to pay attention to the Great Plains if they want to get legislation passed. Maybe this could prevent those states from suffering from the large economic decline they are experiencing OTL.
3) The "Labor/Socialist/Social Democratic" Bloc. This will be all the parties that came from the Left-Blues: The Socialists, the CIO, the Democrats, the various Labor parties, etc. These parties all seem to have their regional power bases, and will stay out of each others way regionally and co-operate on the national stage, for House and Presidential elections.
The Socialists might become the home for the anti-authoritarian left, basically anyone who would be associated with the various OTL 1960s left-wing causes. They would probably be against the various political machines of the other former Blue parties, and could become the "left opposition" in the Soviet states. Given the influence of Norman Thomas, they could also become the voice of pacifism and anti-war activism in case the US ever gets involved in foreign conflicts again. They might even form the basis of an ITTL Green movement. EBR mentioned that they co-operate with American Labor and Union Labor. So either electoral alliances, or electoral fusion in the states that allow it.
The Progressive Party and Farmer-Labor Party have their own bases in Wisconsin and Minnesota, respectively, with some expansion into the rest of the Midwest. Again, they'll stay out of each others way, and will actively help each other when politically expedient.
The CIO is an interesting case. Because they are a political party & union rolled into one, then they have the biggest potential for corruption. It was mentioned they operate their own schools, their own banks, and have official state sanction. While the federal government will likely come down on them slightly, they probably have great sway over state and local governments. I could see them becoming the dominant party in former ASR territory and White territory that didn't become part of New Africa, if only because it will be easiest for them to organize. I'm not sure how much they will compete with the other left-wing parties on a regional level, but will likely work with them on the national field.
I don't see much hope for the Democrats. The other parties seem to be more organized, have stronger power bases, and many of the more prominent liberal Democrats seem to have either migrated to the Republicans, or joined one of the other left-wing parties. They probably have scattered pockets of dominance across the nation, and most likely won't fold, but their glory days are forever behind them.
This bloc will be the one most prone to infighting, if only because, with the possible exception of the CIO, none of them have any clear advantage over the others. Presidential elections must be fun
I see two other parties cooperating with this bloc. The Non-Partisan League will likely work with them on various issues, in exchange for support for the Plains states. The New Africa National Party could easily become an important partner as well, given that they have a similar economic platform to the former Blue parties, and they face competition from the communist parties, and from the GOP.
4) The "Conservative" Bloc. This will be more of a catch-all bloc for the more conservative parties. I see the Republican Party as being the dominant party in the bloc, as they represent a good centrist position against the the other left-wing parties, and are a solid opponent to the ACP in the Soviet states, without trying to bring back the economic conservatism of the Second Republic. They will probably be joined by the Commonwealth Party, the Florida Democratic Party, the Deseret Party, whatever party controls Maine (I still think that Sewall will create a "Maine Republican Party" that is far more capitalistic then the national branch of the GOP), and New American Party. This will likely be the weakest bloc out there, because it's members come from almost all sides in the war (The GOP from the Blues, the Commonwealth from the Continentals, the Florida Democrats the Whites, the Deseret and New American parties the Khakis).
The Republicans will be the dominant party of the bloc by far. Most likely, the other parties rally around them come Presidential election time. I can easily see them gaining the White House from time to time, especially given that they'll probably try to tie their party to Eisenhower, given their similar views on the economy, corruption, and Ike's VP being a Republican.
The Florida Democrats will be tricky. Because of their ties to the Whites, and the fact that they seem to be the only state left willing to allow private racial discrimination, they might end up becoming a rather toxic partner to the GOP, especially given the Republican's vocal support for Civil Rights. While they may make it to 1974, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP one day decides to launch an intense campaign to make Florida Republican, thus shoring up their base in the state and bringing to end an embarrassing partner.
The Deseret Party will likely be around for quite some time. While they won't have support outside of Utah, they will be dominant there. They're guaranteed to have strong ties to the LDS Church, and will rank among the most conservative of parties.
Maine will be interesting. Again, either Sewall makes his own party or the Maine branch of the GOP will be far more libertarian then the rest of the party. But even if candidates get elected on a normal GOP platform, it's safe to say that Maine will get no further left-wing then that.
The New American Party seems to be the most conservative party out there. Their base is in Guantanamo, the former territory of the 104th Division (excepting Utah of course), and Alaska. Because of their explicit connection to the Second Republic, they'll likely be anathema in the rest of the country. But they'll stick around, however small they may be. They might even become the main party in Maine (ah, puns) and will probably have a devoted following among some of the remaining white population in New Africa (if the New African government gives the party ballot access of course).
So there's my speculations, predictions, and thoughts on the state of politics in the future of this TL. And here's some other thoughts I had:
How do the Communists treat the various Amish and Mennonite communities in the Soviet states?
Does the 1944 Constitution have a Second Amendment (meaning an equivalent to the OTL Second Amendment)?
In New Africa, how involved in the government are the white citizens? Are they mistreated? Do whites make up a large percentage of government workers and police forces? And what's the ratio of whites-to-blacks in New Africa?
Does Guantanamo Bay have open borders with Cuba? It would make sense, seeing as how trade with Cuba will likely be the city's economic lifeline.
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