An update!
But hot damn, you've really made things worse quickly.
Good points, but I think that the Soviets would want to retake the city, yes? are they working on getting it back soon?
Also what happened to Ernest Hemingway? Is he still alive?
Oh of course, they're definitely trying to take Vladivostok back. Keep in mind we still haven't seen the 1940 events for East Asia. As for Hemingway, he's alive and writing in the Bahamas.
The problem with pointing out that in 1939 the Finns beat the Red Army is that the same year the Red Army massively outclassed the Japanese.
The Red Army has far better numbers, comparable equipment and morale, better leadership and doctrine and arguably better supply lines- it's one thing for them to get bogged down in Manchuria, but it really does seem implausible for them to lose Vladivostok, the lynchpin of any Soviet eastern defence.
Still: there are points in any good timeline where the narrative has to come first. If the Soviets were to be winning too easily in China, Japan would never have spared the troops for the West Coast and we wouldn't have a story- so play on.
Actually I have to disagree. While the tactical brilliance of Zhou can't be denied the victories against the Japanese were more victories of superior numbers and supply than Soviet military prowess.
IOTL Zhukov spent the month of July getting massive supplies and troops. When he attacked in August 1939 his force was more than three times the number of Japanese he was facing. In the battle Soviets suffered twice the number of aircrafts destroyed than the Japanese. And new reports state battle reports were changed to reflect less casualties.
That brings us to the War in this TL. The Soviets are facing the divisions that historically were in China, Soviets only have ONE major supply line for their operation, the Trans - Siberian Railroad, Soviets have to cover other fronts, the Soviet Far East Fleet is sitting in the bottom of the Sea of Japan since probably 1938 and while I agree it wouldn't be easy Vladivostok could be captured.if Japan was willing to throw men into the pyre.
Who will win at the end? If they don't get occupied with something else the Soviets. But for January 1940 in TL it seems to me like very plausible situation in Manchuria..
What Perdedor said. The Japanese aren't tied up in China which gives them much more in the way of men and material to use, the Soviets are operating on the end of a long supply line, and the Japanese forces are qualitatively better than their counterparts. Of course we haven't yet seen 1940.
All of this, to me, suggests the Soviet military, if it ever does fight Germany, while perhaps not an unstoppable killing machine, will be far more effective nonetheless.
Oh, they're improving. Fighting the Japanese has given them a very good opportunity to recognize their weaknesses and fix them.
This strikes me as a good balance compared to OTL. The government controlling the Army significantly more is rather improbable with the POD we have to work with, but a little bit more? Maybe.
ITTL an event akin to the Marco Polo Bridge Incident happened, but the civilian leadership and moderates in the IJA General Staff managed to reign in the Militarists and it didn't get out of control. So mildly more government control, but not much.
Wait... I'm missing a reference here. But, for others to help, (as I assume the author has to avoid spoilers), the Middle East with oil money? Somewhere else that got influxes of cash and needed troops?
Somewhere else.
Y…YOU TEASE!
!
You give us a heroic stopping of the German attack! Only to see France fall! You give us a Franco-British Union! Only for it to be horrendously back fire! You give us Free French Forces! Only to have then penniless! Next you will tell us that this project the British have is a failure and gives the Nazi's the Bomb! I am very disappointed
Great update by the way!
Thank you.
History is full of examples of really cool things that failed to happen or simply failed because of really good reasons. The Franco-British Union is a fascinating idea (OTL Premier Reynaud and 5 other ministers voted for it) but it would never have worked to keep France in the war. Heroic last stands like De Hautecloque's are more likely to serve as inspiration and nationalist motifs than they are to actually decide the outcome of a war. France lost in OTL for a number of reasons, most of which are still present here. And the Free French Forces OTL were reliant on Britain and America for funding, that's not new.
Great update! And I have to agree with many here that it seems the winner of all this will be the Soviet Union. Now I guess we need an update of the Pacific Front.
Thank you, next update will be the atomic bomb program(s), after that East Asia and the Pacific.
No Italy yet? The longer they wait the better prepared they will be. Also as a neutral they can still trade with the Whites. Will the British risk war with Italy if they are trading with them?
Il Duce is holding back from getting involved, OTL the Italians invaded even though they knew they were utterly unprepared for war, because it was obvious to everyone that Germany was about to win and Mussolini wanted a seat at the "make France give up stuff" table. ITTL the war lasted longer, the outcome was less obvious, and Italy missed its window to intervene in France.
Ah, not necessarily. Remember, Ecuador, in OTL, went through TWELVE governments during the Great Depression because of the economic devastation. Remember, most South American states during this time were essentially exporting a single resources(Chile was nitrates and Copper for example, the former long gone here with synthetic nitrates).
And in 1941 a war with Peru.
Meanwhile, Argentina in this period apparently had the U.K. as their primary export and... that didn't go very well either. Here it may be even worse, especially if the U-Boat campaign is more successful.
The U-Boat campaign is no worse than OTL.
The post-war world is going to be a VERY interesting place. Barring some kind of crazy change, it's going to very much be a "bottom rail on top" kind of deal. I can see India getting some kind of sweetened independence deal to keep them in the Commonwealth, so we probably aren't looking at a partition. Brazil is going to be riding high, though Mexico could go either way (didn't some secessionist movements break out, or did I imagine that?). Other than the above mentioned, Cuba is going to be a BIG winner post-ACW2: Electric Boogaloo. They've always had the potential to be a real regional player, and without the US meddling in it's affairs for the foreseeable future they could have a real powerhouse economy.
I've mentioned it a couple of times but never gone in depth: India is already a dominion by this point in time (name: Indian Empire, viceroy serves as a governor-general equivalent) and is presently supporting Great Britain in the war (although there's a large faction in the INC who don't want to be involved).
Mexico isn't dealing with secessionist movements, just a very power communist paramilitary called the Redshirts based in the State of Tabasco.
The financial situation shouldn't be as dire as all that. The longer time period it took France to fall would have meant that the original plan to ship France gold reserves to Canada would have most likely been set into motion. With at least 300 tons of gold sitting in the RBC vaults means Reynaud isn't penniless.
They planned to move the gold reserves, but the fall of Daladier's government prevented that from happening.
Hi Raphael interesting update as ever, I must say I doubt that the British empire would declare war on the Japanese while fully engaged in Europe, or is it just Canada that declared war ?
Just Canada, Britain has way too much on its plate at the moment.
Anyway I'd like to point out that Britain cannot be bankrupt
Historically in OTL 1940 Britain did not have enough Dollars to service all the orders of equipment she made.
In this Time line no orders of Equipment will be made from America so no dollar Crisis. There will be a lack of American supplied goods which will be problematic
All other nations will accept payment in pounds sterling which the Bank of England can print. Britain will end up as historically with large sterling debts to Argentina Mexico and Venezuela and the Commonwealth but these can be settled post war
Yes, but instead Britain has had to contend with a worse Depression, an earlier rearmament, and spending money trying to develop industry to produce American equipment that they can't import ITTL. They've also been pretty much funding the entire Allied war effort by themselves. That's quite a large bill.
I wonder if there would not be an attempt to seize/ destroy the US Atlantic fleet Britain needs destroyers and the existence of that fleet is a threat to UK dominance of the sea
Cheers Hipper
The US Atlantic Fleet is either sunk, in the hands of the Whites, or in Guantanamo Bay (with a few exceptions). The fleet in Guantanamo is obsolete and poorly maintained, but the Admirals are currently talking about letting Britain restore some of the ships which would be "leased" to the RN.
Oh, I'm by no means claiming that Vladivostok falling is ASB, it just seemed unlikely.
In any case, as I said it's what needs to happen for the story to work so more power to Ephraim.
Hey, fiction has to be realistic. Reality doesn't.
Great update by the way, a thoroughly depressing take on the Fall of France- but all too plausible.
Thank you.
But... My precious Franco-British Union!
Just an observation; Woody Guthrie and Pete Seeger go great with this tl.
Keep up the good work!
I think someone asked me about their fates and I gave them at some point earlier in this thread, but I don't remember what I said.
And what about the Balkans? IOTL Hitler needed the Romanian oil and reached an arms and oil pact with Romania in May 1940. But did the Soviets send their IOTL ultimatum in June 1940 to the Romanians for Bessarabia? Hitler is still busy fighting in the Western Front and would be very difficult for Germany to support Romania. So what could Romania do? Could Italy try to increase their influence in the Balkans by giving assurances to the Romanians?
With Hitler busy this could be the place where Mussolini tries to reach his place in the sun. Yugoslavia could be invaded and without French or British support they could fall to the Italians. Greece will not be their main target but Yugoslavia will, being in the way to reach their Latin cousins in Romania.
As per OTL Stalin sent ultimatums to all of Russia's neighbors, the Baltic States and Romania accepted them, Finland didn't but the Soviets were too busy to bother with the Fins. So Bessarabia is Soviet, and Romania has sought close ties to Germany to protect them.
When I read that bit about the idea of a Franco-British Union, I was just thinking about writing an incredibly scathing and not-very-courteous post that this would be an absolutely terrible idea, that it would backfire tremendously and that there could not be any better way to get the French people to support *Vichy (a France that's subservient to Germany is surely better for French nationalists than a France that's a part of Britain); any anti-Nazi French politicians doing this are not so much shooting themselves in the foot as shooting themselves (more specifically, their chances) in the head. Then I got back from work and read further on, and I felt a bit silly. Sorry for underestimating your common-sense, Ephraim Ben Raphael, and also my compliments to that common-sense. Doing extremely divergent but implausible stuff purely because it's cool might be fun, but it turns a TL from an interesting exercise in what might have been to a waste of effort… so kudos for having it turn out the way you did.
That's the kind of reaction I was hoping for. I believe in inserting "cool AH-y stuff" in TLs and then having it fail for the same reasons it did IOTL.
But… I can't imagine Tube Alloys succeeding by 1942-1943 even ordinarily, let alone if Britain's finances are doing poorly. It sounds far too early. And surely Hitler is going to attempt further conquests, be they of the USSR, Spain or wherever; those saying that he would have sat back, accepted his vast gains as sufficient gains and consolidated the power that he already had are simply not realising the mentality of the man.
Hitler is marginally more unstable than he was OTL, so he's definitely not about to rest on his laurels.
And what about the BEF? It was stated that 2 million plus counting the Commonwealth Soldiers were in France by May 1940. How many actually made it out and what was the situation with the equipment? I can see the bulk of the survivors either moving to Spain or evacuated from the Normandy but IMO the ones in the pocket in the Calais area pretty much have to leave their equipment behind. The ones evacuated from Normandy or Brittany how many equipment they brought home depends of the speed of the German advance. I can see a scramble in December 1940 to reach the ports or south to Spain before the Germans reach an agreement with the French.
Most of the BEF and Commonwealth got out, although they had to abandon a lot of heavy equipment to do so. The French didn't try to stop them, and made only a token effort at doing so. Most were able to retreat to Spain, the ones in Calais returned to Britain by sea of course.
And what about the French? The numbers presented for men joining the Free French is really small. So are we saying the bulk of the 5 million men in uniform by May 1940 are pretty much off the board?
Yep. OTL De Gaulle got 3,000 recruits initially for the Free French, that was it. ITTL the government-in-exile has mildly more legitimacy, but the vast, vast majority of the French military is staying loyal to the Bordeaux government.
And what about terms to the French? Germany needs to gobble other countries to keep their economy going but here they didn't shock the French into submission. What terms will the French accept?
They're not quite as bad as OTL, Germany is occupying less territory, the Kiregsmarine has use of all French Atlantic ports but all territory still under French control is part of the Zone libre. The occupation costs are only 250 million francs per day instead of 400 million.
With regards to the post-world war, without American dominance, something like the Bancor as a global fiat currency would be a very possible alternative:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
I had never heard of that, thank you.
The Pro-Armistice guys will regret it soon.
Reynaud as head of Free France means the parties of the 3rd Republic won't be so discredited.
No indeed.
