The Falcon Cannot Hear: The Second American Civil War 1937-1944

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Things get bad- 1930-31

In the beginning of the year 1930 prominent persons whose word was apt to be taken seriously, declared their confidence in stocks and underlying business soundness. Even comic strip characters weighed in, “Who says business is bad?” asked Little Orphan Annie. Not Nicholas Butler, the president of Columbia University; Dr. Butler assured Columbia men that “Courage will end the slump.” Not the president of U.S. Steel; he said the “peak” of the Depression had passed. Not Owen D. Young, board chairman of General Electric; he announced that the “dead center of the Depression” had come and gone. Not a spokesman for the National Association of Manufacturers; he observed that “many of the bad effects of the so-called Depression are based on calamity howling.” Not Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon who asserted that there was “nothing in the present situation… menacing or [warranting] pessimism.” And certainly not Secretary of Commerce Thomas Lamont; he reported that “The banks of this country are in a strong position” and contented himself with listing the gains that the year 1929 had made over 1928, and predicting prosperity “in the long run.”

It was going to be a very long run.

By March of 1930 there were between 3,250,000 and 4,000,000 unemployed in the United States of America, by March 1931 those numbers had doubled to between 7,500,000 and 8,000,000. Appreciable downward changes in m manufacturing wages began in the fourth quarter of 1930, there was a general understanding among employers that high wages were necessary for recovery and so they held off on making cuts for as long as they could. This changed in August 1931 when U.S. Steel cut the salaries of its employees by 10 to 15 percent and was soon followed by the rest of the steel industry. Throughout 1931 3586 concerns cut wages for some 654,687 workers, by the end of the year hourly earnings had hit 54 cents per hour. Average weekly earnings fell even faster, in 1929 the average weekly salary of an industrial worker was above $28.50, for 1930 $25.74, and a mere $22.64 for 1931. Working hours fell from 48 per week in 1929 to 44 in 1930, to a mere 38 in the last months of 1931. Increasingly even those who were still employed watched their circumstances become more and more precarious.

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Unemployed workers warming themselves over trashcan fire.

It was in the growing masses of the unemployed that the seeds of radicalism began to take hold. In 1930 the Unemployed Councils of the USA (UCU) was first organized by the American Communist Party, then a tiny organization with about 10,000 members. Similar to the soviets of unemployed workers that emerged during the 1905 Russian Revolution, the UCU was a loosely organized body based around neighborhood councils composed of alienated and disillusioned unemployed. Little co-operation existed between respective UCU councils, and in fact most of the membership had not much interest in communism. Demanding public works, relief, and state aid, the UCU was often little more than an expression of American progressive thought. However, communist organizers were very active in the movement and they were able to present their teachings for the first time to a large number of Americans- clearing ground for the expansion of the party.

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A meeting of the St. Louis Unemployment Council. Note the multiracial nature of the membership.

On March 6, 1930 the “International Struggle against Worldwide Unemployment” was called by the Communist International. Across the United States some 100,000- 200,000 members of the UCU turned out to protest calling for “Work or Wages” and demanding that President Hoover do something to address the issue of unemployment. Law enforcement cracked down on the organization, arresting many of its leaders including William Z. Foster, but the diffuse nature of the UCU’s structure meant that the government response helped the councils more than it hurt them. The free publicity caused Unemployment Councils to swell, and although the Communist Party would attempt to establish a more rigid hierarchy for the councils later that year they were never truly able to control their creation.

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From left to right; William Z. Foster, Robert Minor, and Israel Amter. The three communists and leaders of the UCU being arrested on March 6, 1930 for connection to the Unemployment Day Protests.

On October 16, 1930 as unemployed and police skirmished in the streets of New York, Sam Nessin, one of the leaders of the New York Unemployed Councils addressed the city council calling for relief. Mayor Jimmy Walker condemned Nessin calling him a “dirty Red” at which point police beat the activist and four of his companions with nightsticks and removed them from the hall. Nessin was later charged with “inciting riot”. Meanwhile Unemployed Councils stormed supermarkets and organized protests nationally, recruiting from amongst the disenfranchised and the desperate. Their willingness to recruit both black and white citizens both hurt and helped the UCU’s appeal in the south, in the north they frequently made inroads into immigrant communities.

Largely thanks to their involvement in the Unemployed Councils, the Communist Party swelled massively- by the end of 1931 they had increased ten-fold with some 100,000 members. Still neither they, nor the Socialists were able to make much headway in the 1930 elections which saw the Democrats take control of both houses. For the time being Congress remained the province of the Democrats and Republicans (excepting a single representative and a single senator both belonging to the Farmer-Labor Party). The political fragmentation that would emerge later in the thirties was yet to come.
 
Very very interesting, for sure. Consider me subscribed. I also wonder what the ripple effects would be in Canada, Mexico, and Newfoundland (at the time a separate Dominion - well, in OTL, until the Commission of Government and the controversial referenda in 1949 that led to it becoming a Canadian province).

America's neighbors will be involved, it'd be hard to keep them out.

Subscribing.

Eager for more :p

Woo!

ALways lovin' an Ameriscrew, even more so if it's plausible!

I'll try not to disappoint!

Over on TMP there is this, http://theminiaturespage.com/boards/msg.mv?id=330889
Variation on VBCW wargaming.

The Black Legion will appear.
 
America's neighbors will be involved, it'd be hard to keep them out.

Of course. (Oh, that will throw a funk into Cuba, as well - forgot about them. :eek:)

Otherwise, once again a great update. Things sure look nasty - more nasty than the stories I remember hearing about the Depression from my grandparents. Much later on, the 1938 Hurricane would cause widespread destruction throughout New England and Long Island - I wonder what the response would be in TTL.
 
Interesting start. will follow this.

How much does this timelines UC differ from OTL? Same or larger membership base?
 
What of FDR? And will Canada and/or Mexico try to annex some land, (Canada, Alaska, New England. Mexico, parts of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California.) When the war happens?
 
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Of course. (Oh, that will throw a funk into Cuba, as well - forgot about them. :eek:)

Otherwise, once again a great update. Things sure look nasty - more nasty than the stories I remember hearing about the Depression from my grandparents. Much later on, the 1938 Hurricane would cause widespread destruction throughout New England and Long Island - I wonder what the response would be in TTL.

Thanks, I don't want to comment too much on your speculations though- that would give things away!

Interesting start. will follow this.

How much does this timelines UC differ from OTL? Same or larger membership base?

Thank you.:) We have yet to reach the POD, so the UC is pretty much the same as OTL- so far.

Defiantly has potential

Glad you think so!

What of FDR? And will Canada and/or Mexico try to annex some land, (Canada, Alaska, New England. Mexico, parts of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California.) When the war happens?

FDR is still governor of New York. The start and end date of the war is given in the thread's title; 1937 to 1944.

Are you going to take this to today?

Oh it'll get an update today. We won't have to slow down until after Winter Break ends.
 
With this PoD, it may be possible to avert Hitler taking power or WW2 as per OTL.

Linked to the above, are the Young and Howes plans adopted ITTL? Does the Lausanne conference run as OTL?
 
I'm really curious to see how WW2 develops in this timeline. If the civil war, involves a communist revolution, maybe we see the US and Germany team up to take down Soviet Russia.
 
Much later on, the 1938 Hurricane would cause widespread destruction throughout New England and Long Island - I wonder what the response would be in TTL.

The OTL New England hurricane would be butterflied away (climate is pretty much invulnerable to man-made events barring a nuclear winter, but individual weather events get struck by the butterflies VERY rapidly - that's why we can't accurately forecast the weather more than one or two weeks in advance, and why the butterfly effect was discovered when a number in a weather model was changed VERY slightly and the model quickly became unrecognisable), but you could well have a different hurricane of similarly destructive potential, and it wouldn't have to strike where it did OTL or at its OTL strength - it might well go up the Hudson valley as a Cat. 4 or 5, it could hit Maryland and then go up either the Potomac, the Susquehanna, or the Delaware... the possibilities are, quite literally, endless.
 
I think Canada will take over New England, Alaska, and maybe Washington. Mexico would take parts of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Also, what will the UK and France do with the US in a all out war.
 
Puerto Rico and/or the Philippines could try to break away from the US while it's engaged.

Japan would probably try to take advantage of the turmoil to try to grab US territories in the Pacific (Guam, Wake, the Philippines, and maybe Hawaii, American Samoa, and the minor islands), which could overlap with a possible Filipino uprising.

Were there any areas of the United States with a major separatist movement(s) at this time?

The UK probably nabs the US territories in the Caribbean, with the possible exception of Puerto Rico, which might become a British protectorate or even fully independent.
 
President Hoover- 1929-1932

Unfortunately for the country the man in the White House was Herbert Clark Hoover, elected in 1928 in a landslide. A man who “couldn’t bear to watch suffering” he never visited a breadline or a relief station, despite the pleas of William Allen White. Since taking the oath of office on March 4, 1929 Hoover had not once left the capital to see the states that he had toured during his campaign. He did not turn his head when his limousine swept past apple salesmen on street corners. The President did briefly consider economy for the White House kitchen, but he decided that would be “bad for national morale.” Each evening he entered the dining room wearing black tie and sat down to seven full courses while men starved in streets and alleyways. Usually some of the courses were out of season, as were the cut flowers for the table. A custom-built humidor held long thick cigars handmade in Havana to the President’s specifications; he smoked twenty a day. As Mr. and Mrs. Hoover sat down to eat they were always attended by a butler and several footmen- all had to be the same height- who stood at stiff attention, absolutely silent, forbidden to move unbidden. In the doorways were duty officers from the company of marines who stood by wearing dress blues, to provide ceremonial trappings, and there were buglers in Ruritanian uniforms whose glittering trumpets announced the President’s arrival and departure from the nightly feast.

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President Hoover making a radio address.

His election slogan in 1928 had been “A chicken in every pot and two cars in every garage”.

The American people meanwhile were not unaware of their commander-in-chief’s apathy, and they castigate him for it. The junkyard shanty towns that sprang up across the country were called “Hoovervilles”, the unemployed carried sacks of frayed belongings known as “Hoover bags”. The rural poor sawed off the fronts of broken-down flivvers, attached scrawny mules, and called the result “Hooverchariots”. The President tried to have the name changed to “Depression chariots” but no one bought it. “Hoover blankets” were old newspapers the homeless wrapped around themselves for warmth. “Hoover flags” were pockets turned inside out. “Hoover hogs” the jackrabbits hungry farmers caught for food. One popular joke of the time was to claim that Hoover asked Secretary Mellon for a nickel to telephone a friend and was told “Here’s a dime, phone both of them.”

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A Hoover Chariot.

The President explained his belief that the function of government was to “bring about a condition of affairs to the beneficial development of private enterprise”, adding that the only “moral” way out of the Depression was self-help; the people should find inspiration in the devotion of “great manufacturers, our railways, utilities, business houses, and public officials.” Since by this point the greater part of the people believed that the great manufacturers were a bunch of crooks this went over like a lead balloon. Hoover was a great advocate of conventional wisdom, he held the gold standard to be sacred even though eighteen nations lead by Great Britain had already abandoned it. He was convinced that a balanced budget was “the most essential factor to economic recovery”- despite the fact that by 1932 he had run the budget 4 billion dollars into the red. When he was at last convinced to do something about the Depression (whose name he himself had coined, it sounded less severe than “Panic”) he created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation to prop up sagging banks, and agreed to spend twenty-five million dollars on feed for farm animals on the condition that a bill authorizing one hundred and twenty thousand dollars for hungry people be tabled. The RFC promptly loaned 90 million
dollars to the Central Republic Bank and Trust Company of Chicago of which the RFC chairman, Charles G. Dawes (former vice-president of the United States), was an officer, and a mere 30 million to state governments for unemployment relief. People called it “a breadline for big business”, which in a sense it was.

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The National Association of Manufacturers put up murals like these in major American cities as part of their campaign to support the President and discourage liberal opposition.

Still Hoover persisted in his views, unwilling to acknowledge that the country was truly in trouble. In December 1929 he declared that “conditions are fundamentally sound”. Three months later he said that the worst would be over in sixty days; at the end of May he predicted the economy would be back to normal by autumn; in June the market broke sharply, yet he told a delegation which came to plead for a public works project, “Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The Depression is over.” On December 2, 1930 the President informed the lame-duck Republican congress that “the fundamental strength of the economy is unimpaired.” About the same time the International Apple Shipper Association decided to unload its surplus of apples by selling them on credit to jobless men for resale at a nickel each. Overnight the street corners became crowded with shivering apple salesmen. When asked about them, Hoover replied, “Many people have left their jobs for the more profitable one of selling apples.” When reporters’ questions turned to hunger he dismissed the problem, saying that “Nobody is actually starving. The hoboes for example, are better fed than they ever have been. One hobo in New York got ten meals in one day.” This when the New York City Welfare Council was reporting 110 (mostly children) dead of malnutrition.

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A Washington, D.C. Apple Salesman.

On the streets of New York children sang;

Mellon pulled the whistle
Hoover rang the bell
Wall Street gave the signal
And the country went to hell.

Going into the year 1932 and the coming election Hoover was the subject of biting criticism and ridicule, nevertheless he hung on tightly to his optimism. Surely the hardworking American people would prefer a President who believed in the value of self-reliance? The economy had been bad for more than two years by that point and he was confident that it had to turn around sooner or later- why not in an election year? Meanwhile in the streets and crowded Hoovervilles the situation just kept on getting worse and worse.
 
With this PoD, it may be possible to avert Hitler taking power or WW2 as per OTL.

Linked to the above, are the Young and Howes plans adopted ITTL? Does the Lausanne conference run as OTL?

The POD hasn't come yet, you'll know it when you see it. So Germany's debt and it's repayment are still the same as OTL.

I'm really curious to see how WW2 develops in this timeline. If the civil war, involves a communist revolution, maybe we see the US and Germany team up to take down Soviet Russia.

The OTL New England hurricane would be butterflied away (climate is pretty much invulnerable to man-made events barring a nuclear winter, but individual weather events get struck by the butterflies VERY rapidly - that's why we can't accurately forecast the weather more than one or two weeks in advance, and why the butterfly effect was discovered when a number in a weather model was changed VERY slightly and the model quickly became unrecognisable), but you could well have a different hurricane of similarly destructive potential, and it wouldn't have to strike where it did OTL or at its OTL strength - it might well go up the Hudson valley as a Cat. 4 or 5, it could hit Maryland and then go up either the Potomac, the Susquehanna, or the Delaware... the possibilities are, quite literally, endless.

While the US is engulfed in a full-scale civil war?:rolleyes:

Not likely!

I think Canada will take over New England, Alaska, and maybe Washington. Mexico would take parts of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Also, what will the UK and France do with the US in a all out war.

Puerto Rico and/or the Philippines could try to break away from the US while it's engaged.

Japan would probably try to take advantage of the turmoil to try to grab US territories in the Pacific (Guam, Wake, the Philippines, and maybe Hawaii, American Samoa, and the minor islands), which could overlap with a possible Filipino uprising.

Were there any areas of the United States with a major separatist movement(s) at this time?

The UK probably nabs the US territories in the Caribbean, with the possible exception of Puerto Rico, which might become a British protectorate or even fully independent.

I meant after the war was over.

The war'll likely be over by then. I'd say it's a tossup who wins.

Some very interesting speculation.;)

I am even more loving an Ameriscrew (partly?) caused by (pseudo-)Commies!

Es lebe die Revolution!

Thank you!:)
 
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