The Expedition of the Thousand fails, effects on the Papal States?

The general consensus over what if The Expedition of the Thousand failed is that Sardinia-Piedmont likely wouldn't try to annex it again. At least, this is the consensus as far as I can tell from other threads on this topic, let's just assume this is the case. With the Italian peninsula cut in half, what would be the fate of the Papal States?
 
It is a relic of the middle ages, and it's well past due date.
It should not have been recreated at the Congress of Vienna (and Metternich himself admitted it had been a "non-optimal solution".
There is no way that they can last until the end of the 19th century, same as for the Bourbon kingdom in the south.
Even assuming that Garibaldi fails in 1860, the absolute incapacity to reform the kingdom of Two Sicilies means that sooner or later (and I think sooner) it will be annexed to Italy: the nationalistic momentum is just too strong to be denied for a long time.
 
I don't know, maybe they might last a few decades longer than that. And Sardinia-Piedmont might peacefully incorporate it while giving the previous ruler a fief or at least some nice estates as compensation
 
It is a relic of the middle ages, and it's well past due date.
It should not have been recreated at the Congress of Vienna (and Metternich himself admitted it had been a "non-optimal solution".
There is no way that they can last until the end of the 19th century, same as for the Bourbon kingdom in the south.
Even assuming that Garibaldi fails in 1860, the absolute incapacity to reform the kingdom of Two Sicilies means that sooner or later (and I think sooner) it will be annexed to Italy: the nationalistic momentum is just too strong to be denied for a long time.

Much too deterministic for my tastes. I think a Lazio-based Papal States can persist to the present day with the right PoDs - it will probably have to shed its eastern territories though, which of course makes its independence less viable
 
Much too deterministic for my tastes. I think a Lazio-based Papal States can persist to the present day with the right PoDs - it will probably have to shed its eastern territories though, which of course makes its independence less viable
Don't be shy. Share with us the "right PODs" which might allow the temporal power of the popes to extend into the 20th century.
 
Don't be shy. Share with us the "right PODs" which might allow the temporal power of the popes to extend into the 20th century.

Italian nationalism as a realistic political goal smothered in the cradle; a stronger Austrian military; a surviving Napoleon III regime, those work
 
Italian nationalism as a realistic political goal smothered in the cradle; a stronger Austrian military; a surviving Napoleon III regime, those work
Italian nationalism has already been successful: Lombardy, Emilia, Romagna, Tuscany have been annexed.
The reform of the Austrian military is somehow unlikely: the lack of effective generals, the incapacity of breaking the aristocratic rules and the lack of money to pay for everything (which is not going to get better after loosing Lombardy) will not go away, nor will their superciliousness. There is also Prussia, who is preparing and will come up for a knock-out match in the 1860s. Note that neither in 1860 nor in 1870 Austria was very much interested in making an effort to preserve the papal states.
A surviving Napoleonic regime is a pipe dream: Louis Napoleon is no more the man of the 1850s, and his diplomatic games in the 1860s were all failures. By the end of the decade he's going to be a sick man, and his regime is even sicker than the emperor. In this case too, Prussia is looking from the farther side of the Rhine.
The papal regime is not going to reform, not for a long time, and if the temporal power is prolonged it will be even worse.
How many divisions has the pope? :rolleyes:
 
Much too deterministic for my tastes. I think a Lazio-based Papal States can persist to the present day with the right PoDs - it will probably have to shed its eastern territories though, which of course makes its independence less viable
IMHO hard to Rome not to be incorporated into the Italian Kingdom or even by the future Italian Republic around 1946...Rome was too much of a permanent symbol to a idea of a fully unified Italian nation and the anachronism of the Church States would just increase by the end of the 19th Century / early 20th. Century.

Even inside the Catholic Church the idea of having to administrate a "mundane state" and its potential idiosyncrasies would be thought to manage as society and economy becomes more complex and diverse....how would the Church States react to industrialization, WWI or communist / anarchist movements post WWI and even to defend itself from the new Italian Kingdom? Slowly the Church would understand that such territories are more of burden....

As said, a transfer of Marche, Bologna to the Italian Kingdom would much probably take place, but transfer of Rome, or at least a good slice of it (e.g: all Rome to the south of Tiber) would be a main demand from Italy and a good opportunity to the Church to leave behind a every growing complex (and expensive) city, in exchange to much preferable religious advantages in a large Italian nation, akin to the OTC Lateran Treaty.

Maybe we could end up with a larger Vatican State, but Rome is set to become the Italian capital....
 
As said, a transfer of Marche, Bologna to the Italian Kingdom would much probably take place, but transfer of Rome, or at least a good slice of it (e.g: all Rome to the south of Tiber) would be a main demand from Italy and a good opportunity to the Church to leave behind a every growing complex (and expensive) city, in exchange to much preferable religious advantages in a large Italian nation, akin to the OTC Lateran Treaty.
Bologna, Ferrara and Romagna had already joined Sardinia-Piedmont via a plebiscite after the insurrections in 1859.
Cavour played his cards very well, and kept the volunteers who were going to free Marche and Umbria on the border; then convinced Nappy that the only way to "save" Latium for the pope was to agree to an official army expeditionary force marching through Marche and stopping Garibaldi's potential march on Rome. It was political theater, but first class one: the death of Cavour in 1861 was the worst thing which could have happened to Italy. Give him another 10 years, and history would be quite different.
Obviously everyone in Europe knew that it was game over for the papal states: the annexation of Rome was a given, the only question was "when".
After the liberation of Rome, the pope was offered to keep his authority on the city center (the Citta' Leonina"), but Pius IX refused and kept only the Vatican palace. Maybe it was the Curia rather than the pope himself to go for this solution, but it was the best one.
 
Italian nationalism has already been successful: Lombardy, Emilia, Romagna, Tuscany have been annexed.
The reform of the Austrian military is somehow unlikely: the lack of effective generals, the incapacity of breaking the aristocratic rules and the lack of money to pay for everything (which is not going to get better after loosing Lombardy) will not go away, nor will their superciliousness. There is also Prussia, who is preparing and will come up for a knock-out match in the 1860s. Note that neither in 1860 nor in 1870 Austria was very much interested in making an effort to preserve the papal states.
A surviving Napoleonic regime is a pipe dream: Louis Napoleon is no more the man of the 1850s, and his diplomatic games in the 1860s were all failures. By the end of the decade he's going to be a sick man, and his regime is even sicker than the emperor. In this case too, Prussia is looking from the farther side of the Rhine.
The papal regime is not going to reform, not for a long time, and if the temporal power is prolonged it will be even worse.
How many divisions has the pope? :rolleyes:

You asked me for any PoDs - I would agree by 1859 it's probably too late. I'd say if you set a PoD as late as the 1840s you can make these happen. You could also go to the 1820s if you want and have a kind of Two Sicilies intelligentsia come up with some kind of Sicilian national identity - that makes the States of the Church extremely viable
 
You asked me for any PoDs - I would agree by 1859 it's probably too late. I'd say if you set a PoD as late as the 1840s you can make these happen. You could also go to the 1820s if you want and have a kind of Two Sicilies intelligentsia come up with some kind of Sicilian national identity - that makes the States of the Church extremely viable
Since the OP postulated a failure of Garibaldi's expedition in southern Italy as a POD, it's quite obvious that what I was asking for were secondary PODs (i.e. happening after 1860) which would be beneficial for the papal states.
I'd be honestly curious to hear what might happen in the 1840s that would boost papal chances, and even more curious about the POD you see possible in the 1820s.
 
I find it very unlikely, with a Post-Napoleonic PoD, that Austria could keep Lombardy and the Veneto in the long run. It is no coincidence that the territories which were most troublesome for Austria were also those most recently acquired, and not infrequently with a long and proud history of an independent state (Venice as the Serene Republic, annexed in 1797 and definitively in 1815, and before that the various Italian kingdoms and Roman Empire; Galicia, taken from Poland in the First Partition, and excited by Napoleon's nod towards Polish sovereignty with the Duchy of Warsaw; Transylvania- independent under Turkish suzerainity until the 18th century- and Hungary- which enjoyed staunch constitutional autonomy until 1806, and regained this in 1866; Bosnia- annexed at the turn of the 20th century, less than a decade before the 1st World War). Italian unification per se is by no means inevitable, but a surge in liberal thought- including nationalism- *is* inevitable, not least owing to Austria's pig-headed obstinacy, and I do not believe Austria's luck can hold forever. The Revolutionaries only need to succeed once, even if that "success" is as apocalyptic as the denouement of Sarajevo.

In regards to the specific PoD, the Expedition of the Thousand is far too late to avoid Italian Rome. The momentum is too far behind the Savoyards at this point, which have most of the north already; and given the impotence of Napoleon III, the ambitions of Prussia, and the ability of Cavour, sooner or later there will be another chance, and then it's curtains for the Papal State.
 
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