After the Revolutions of 1848 failed to unify Germany there was another attempt at unification by Prussia in 1850 at Erfurt. But this ultimately came to nothing as well once Austria had defeated the Italians and Hungarians. But let's say Hungary won its independence (would take an act of god to pull that off, but just go with me on this) and now Austria is too weak to oppose Prussia and a Prussian led Germany is formed in 1850. What happens, how would France, Britain, and Russia respond, and does the rump Austria join Germany in the future?
The Erfurt Union
- Thread starter Hawkeye
- Start date
If the Hungarians win in 1848, Austria is simply not going to survive. Sardinia would attack again and probably win. Austria stays with only German and Czech lands (i assume it cannot hold Galicia after Hungary is lost) and so will probably join, or be forced to join, some kind of Prussia-led Germany.
Bump 'cause this is a great topic and largely underdiscussed relative to other Germany-related scenarios.
This starts out as very much a kleindeutschland. Prussia will initially not want Austria a part of this Germany at all. Since the Habsburg Empire will become the Habsburg Kingdoms (perhaps in all but name, the proud bastards) Prussia might eventually warm to incorporating Austria, but I'd guess they'd wait until they can be sure Austria could be controlled, receive ideological impetus from within and/or without, or both. I also think they'd be more likely to only allow the Habsburgs into the Union if they were willing to ausgleich German Austria and Bohemia & Moravia into separate states which happen to share a monarch, and renounce the title of Emperor. So you'd need to wait for an emperor who isn't Franz Josef I or someone like him.
To the degree you see colonialism as a product of geopolitical developments in Europe, it would probably speed it up. There's a lot of cultural assumptions that influence colonialism, particularly this sense of Darwinist competition between nations. If you think these were in part precipitated by the continuing rise of Prussia, we will see such notions sooner. Honestly though I don't know.
In another thread on a similar topic, Susano suggested that the Croatians would be happy with a personal union sort of arrangement, in part as a defense against the Hungarians, which makes sense to me. There's going to be a big conflict with the Hungarians about who gets what, but it seems like the Hungarians are going to get Galicia and the Austrians are going to get Croatia-Slavonia and the parts of Cisleithania that Sardinia doesn't take. How much far does Sardinia get?
After a certain point Austria will want to join a Prussia-led Germany. Perhaps not her government, but her people would. It's really whether or not Prussia will be okay with this, and initially the answer is probably going to be no. In the meantime expect a Habsburg attempt to centralize power in their smaller but more homogeneous and more loyal dominion.
I can't imagine Austria and Germany being enemies, however--unless Austria is foolish enough to think it can have real influence among German states, which could precipitate a war that would end the Habsburg empire completely. Maybe a rump in Croatia or something. Prussia will probably be okay with absorbing into Germany a balkanized Austrian remnant, which gets us something like a Großdeutsch version of the OTL German Empire. It could even keep the Czechs if they get a good deal from the Germans and remain afraid of the Hungarians.
I am very interested in the kind of geopolitical situation an Erfurt Union scenario sets up, particularly the likely coalitions that would fight TTL's Great War. The wild cards in any Franco-German war are Russia and Sardinia/Italy; either Germany and Russia peacefully figure out how to fill the Habsburg vacuum and have very little to fight over, or they end up in conflict about where the buffer zones and spheres of influences are. Re: Italy it seems the same eventually becomes true of the territories Venice, Tyrol and/or especially Trieste. I don't know too much about the diplomacy of the period though (like most people I just know about right before WWI), so I'd be interested to learn what people have to say.
This starts out as very much a kleindeutschland. Prussia will initially not want Austria a part of this Germany at all. Since the Habsburg Empire will become the Habsburg Kingdoms (perhaps in all but name, the proud bastards) Prussia might eventually warm to incorporating Austria, but I'd guess they'd wait until they can be sure Austria could be controlled, receive ideological impetus from within and/or without, or both. I also think they'd be more likely to only allow the Habsburgs into the Union if they were willing to ausgleich German Austria and Bohemia & Moravia into separate states which happen to share a monarch, and renounce the title of Emperor. So you'd need to wait for an emperor who isn't Franz Josef I or someone like him.
To the degree you see colonialism as a product of geopolitical developments in Europe, it would probably speed it up. There's a lot of cultural assumptions that influence colonialism, particularly this sense of Darwinist competition between nations. If you think these were in part precipitated by the continuing rise of Prussia, we will see such notions sooner. Honestly though I don't know.
In another thread on a similar topic, Susano suggested that the Croatians would be happy with a personal union sort of arrangement, in part as a defense against the Hungarians, which makes sense to me. There's going to be a big conflict with the Hungarians about who gets what, but it seems like the Hungarians are going to get Galicia and the Austrians are going to get Croatia-Slavonia and the parts of Cisleithania that Sardinia doesn't take. How much far does Sardinia get?
After a certain point Austria will want to join a Prussia-led Germany. Perhaps not her government, but her people would. It's really whether or not Prussia will be okay with this, and initially the answer is probably going to be no. In the meantime expect a Habsburg attempt to centralize power in their smaller but more homogeneous and more loyal dominion.
I can't imagine Austria and Germany being enemies, however--unless Austria is foolish enough to think it can have real influence among German states, which could precipitate a war that would end the Habsburg empire completely. Maybe a rump in Croatia or something. Prussia will probably be okay with absorbing into Germany a balkanized Austrian remnant, which gets us something like a Großdeutsch version of the OTL German Empire. It could even keep the Czechs if they get a good deal from the Germans and remain afraid of the Hungarians.
I am very interested in the kind of geopolitical situation an Erfurt Union scenario sets up, particularly the likely coalitions that would fight TTL's Great War. The wild cards in any Franco-German war are Russia and Sardinia/Italy; either Germany and Russia peacefully figure out how to fill the Habsburg vacuum and have very little to fight over, or they end up in conflict about where the buffer zones and spheres of influences are. Re: Italy it seems the same eventually becomes true of the territories Venice, Tyrol and/or especially Trieste. I don't know too much about the diplomacy of the period though (like most people I just know about right before WWI), so I'd be interested to learn what people have to say.