This provisional timeline was written by me as a response to the challenge expressed in this thread:
WW2 or prior, what does it take to thoroughly beat Britain?
Basic assumptions
A basic assumption was that a German - British war, as in the two OTL world wars, was much likelier than a British - US, or British - French war. Furthermore I assumed that one big war in the twentieth century is not enough to eliminate Britain as a great power.
A further assumption was that it is easiest to beat Britain if it is isolated, apart from the support from the Empire, and that this is not ASB, since Britain
was isolated to that extent in OTL between the fall of France and Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union. It is obvious that to continue this isolation, there must be developments to prevent the Soviet Union and the USA from entering the war.
The seemingly easiest way of preventing the Soviet Union from entering is Germany not attacking the Soviet Union, but this does obviously not prevent the Soviet Union from attacking Germany in its turn. But I think this can be prevented if the Soviet Union does not regain the territories it lost at Brest-Litovsk, and if Germany succeeds in making allies of an independent Poland and Ukraine.
I assumed that economic tensions between Britain and the USA that are even stronger than the OTL ones, combined with a still more negative image of British imperialism, would increase isolationism in the USA to the extent of preventing an entry of the USA into WW II and also aid through Lend - Lease.
I then assumed that the above developments could be brought about by an ending to WW I that is much more favorable to Germany than the OTL one.
Avoiding multiple PODs
Multiple PODs are generally considered as inelegant and I share this general feeling. On the other hand I did not think it possible for Germany to get a better peace in 1918 if the German leadership took
just one decision that was different from OTL. But for me the assumption that one important person is much more intelligent in this TL than in OTL, is just
one POD, not multiple PODs, even if this results in this person's taking several decisions that are different from OTL, and not only one.
The most obvious candidate for a person to be more intelligent in this TL than in OTL is Kaiser Wilhelm II. If he had shown more intelligence, application and realism, there might very well have been a totally different equivalent to OTL's World War One (or of course no World War One at all, but that was not the point of the challenge)
Improvements welcome
My timeline is not finished yet, I would like to conclude it in the year 1945, with the defeat of Britain. Even in those parts that I have already written, there are many vague passages, and suggestions for a more concrete description of the respective events are most welcome, as well as other comments and criticism.
The Provisional Timeline
A greater sense of realism
As the end of the nineteenth century nears Kaiser Wilhelm II loses his enthusiasm and overconfidence in Germany's strength and his own abilities and acquires a more realistic sense of what Germany's situation would be, if it had to fight another war. He succeds in impartings his views to the military and political leadership of Germany. They begin to understand that Germany might find itself blockaded, as in the earlier war against France in 1870/71 and even in the war against Denmark in 1864. With then modern firepower favoring the defence, a future war might last much longer than those recent conflicts and have much more serious consequences. To counter a possible blockade with a superior German fleet might just be possible against a Russian - French alliance but impossible if this alliance includes Britain, due to the very much superior geographical position of Britain and its greater number of shipyards.
Strategical stockpiles
Since a British blockade cannot be broken (much less a British-French one), provisions must be made of strategical materials and food. Tarrifs on grain imports are reduced or abolished, as an ostensible gesture of good will towards the grain-exporting nations, or as concessions in trade negotiations. At the same time stockpiles of grain are built up, ostensibly as a measure to stabilize prices. Stocks of saltpetre and other strategical materials are also built up, partly secretly financed by slush funds, such as those from the confiscated properties of the King of Hannover and the Elector of Hesse - Darmstadt.
Reduced ambitions
Germany does not acquire the Pacific island colonies or Tsingtao, and does not interfere in the Spanish - American war, which saves Germany both some financial resources and good will in the United States. Export subsidies are abolished, both for financial reasons and reasons of foreign policy. The Prussian Settlement Commission, which had the task of strengthening German landowners at the expense of Polish ones in West Prussia and Posen / Poznan is abolished because it has completely failed to fulfill its mission.
The Balkan wars might occur as in OTL, but Germany is less aggressive in the Moroccan crises than OTL. Germany's strategy is based on the Schlieffen plan just as in OTL, but with the difference that the High Sea Fleet plans to make a sally to the Channel to delay the deployment of the British Expeditionary Forces as much as possible. It is also agreed between the German and Austrian General staffs that a declaration of war on Serbia will automatically mean war with Russia (and France), and that Austria therefore has to mobilise the bulk of its army against Russia. Preparations are also made for a 'silent' mobilisation - one without a public declaration conducted as secretly as possible.
World War One breaks out at the same time as OTL
The assassinations of Sarajevo occur at about the same time as in OTL.
Germany and Austrian quickly decide on secretly mobilizing their forces and making an ultimatum for the Serbian government which they expect to be rejected. Russian and French declarations of war are expected as a matter of course and even the British one is accepted as a likelihood.
The Germans attack France through Belgium as in OTL, but they have three advantages:
- They started to mobilise more quickly than the Allies
- The deployment of the British Expeditionary Forces is delayed by the High Sea Fleet, which has both taken and inflicted heavy losses during its sally into the Channel
- The German commander does not detach three corps to the East from the attacking force in the West, because Austria - Hungary has mobilised the bulk of its army against Russia from the start.
No "Cannae" as envisioned by Schlieffen, but a much better situation for Germany
Germany still does not complete the encirclement of the French army envisioned in the Schlieffen plan, but the front lines stabilise substantially further in the South and West than in OTL.
Germany has the following advantages compared with OTL:
- One or more additional Channel ports occupied by Germany, complicating the Allied supply situation.
- More French mines and factories denied to the Allies.
- Several French mines that were blown up by the Germans, instead of being used by them, because they were too close to the frontlines, are exploited by Germany in this timeline.
- Several French population centres with men of military age are now occupied by Germany and cannot contribute to the Allied war effort.
In 1914, the same countries are at war as in OTL, with the one exception of Japan, which has no reason to go to war whatsoever, since it has no German colonies to conquer. With the overall situation more in favor of the Central Powers, neither Italy nor Romania join the Allies. The neutrality of the latter slightly improves the fuel situation of the Central Powers.
No Hindenburg programme and more tanks for Germany
Ludendorff and Hindenburg do not become supreme army commanders and there is no Hindenburg crash armament programme which derailed and set back the German armament effort. Germany profits from the strategical stockpiles amassed before the war, while Britain is under greater strain than in OTL to make good for the more reduced French war potential and the slightly longer supply lines.
Britain fields the first tanks in 1916, as in OTL, but France, which produced much greater numbers than Britain in OTL, can produce only much smaller numbers. Germany, which produced only insignificant numbers in OTL, is able to produce greater numbers of tanks than in OTL, which are also of a more practical, smaller design, because they are not to act in the additional role of transports.
Poland treated better by the Central Powers than in OTL
An "independent" Poland is declared by the Central Powers in 1916 as in OTL, but in this timeline it is made clear from the start that a Habsburg is going to be its monarch and that it will at the very least comprise all of formerly Russian Poland (instead of being reduced and partially "ethnically cleansed" in favor of Germany). As the war situation develops more in Germany's favor, Lithuania is conquered and the German leadership plans to annex this country, as a compensation for the larger part of Posen / Poznan which it is willing to cede to Poland.
Peace of Brest-Litovsk
The Russian revolution takes place, possibly slightly earlier than in OTL. As in OTL, Lenin is sent to Russia, and the Bolsheviks come to power.
The Germans make roughly the same demands from the Bolshevik government, which this initially refuses, resulting in the same German advance eastwards as in OTL. The Ukraine is declared independent as in OTL, but Germany and Austria - Hungary demand less grain from it. No German detachments are sent further East, to Georgia and Baku, as in OTL.
No US intervention
Meanwhile, Germany has declared unrestricted submarine warfare, but the lack of pre-war US - German tensions and the absence of the Zimmermann telegramm prevent a declaration of war by the USA.
More revolts in British India
Britain's situation has been exacerbated by revolts in India during the war. In OTL there were attempts by the Central powers to foment rebellion with shipments of weapons and revolutionary literature, and the changes mentioned above in the general course of the war might have resulted in these rebellions really taking off.
Successful German offensive in the West
As in OTL Germany tries to force a decision in the West in 1918. The offensive starts with more and better fed troops and more tanks and a better position to start from than in OTL, and is also supported by another sally into the Channel by the High Sea Fleet. The offensive succeeds in encircling Paris and capturing a large number of Allied troops there. Germany offers peace negotiations and the Allies take up the offer.
Peace in the West
The negotiations result in the following settlement:
- Germany has to withdraw from Belgian and French territory within one year and a half. Germany restores the complete territorial integrity and sovereignty of Belgium. Germany concedes all of its colonies to Britain, France or Belgium. Germany scraps 35 per cent of its remaining fleet, including 35 per cent of the tonnage of the capital ships. No construction of new ships for Germany above destroyer size for ten years, and no modernisation of the main armament of these ships for the same time.
- The Allies immediately end their blockade of the Central Powers. They recognize the new territorial and political order in Eastern and Central Europe. France cedes the ore basin of Longwy and Briey to Germany. The Allies recognize the annexation of Luxemburg by Germany.
- Serbia has to cede the Kosovo to Albania and is put under economic control by Austria - Hungary, as is Montenegro. The Karageorgevic dynasty is deposed. Poland becomes a monarchy under a Habsburg prince. It includes all of formerly Russian Poland and most of Poznan, but is under economic control of Germany and Austria – Hungary.
- Turkey gains Abkhazia, Azerbaijan and parts of north-western Persia
- Bulgaria gains the Vardar region from Serbia.
- There are no financial demands on either side. Britain, France and Belgium on the one hand and the Central Powers on the other guarantee not to increase tariffs against each other for the next twenty years.
Post WW I Financial situation for Britain and France worse than in OTL
The war ends with Britain and France in a much worse financial situation than in OTL. With most of its industry in German - occupied territory, France has had to fight with British equipment, burning British coal (as in OTL) and importing food with British credit. France's debts to Britain are much larger than in OTL, and so are Britain's debts to the USA. France has a single advantage compared to OTL - there has been no German retreat with a scorched earth policy - but the ore mines of Longwy and Briey are gone permanently, there are no German reparations, and no exploitation of the Saarland either.
Britain and France have larger debts, but the US is also less willing to grant them moratoriums or restructure their debts, since there has been no common struggle against the same enemy.
Resentment in the British public against allies
When France defaults on its war debts, there is a feeling among many Britons that their country has been betrayed by everyone. Italy has not honoured its treaty with France, Japan has not requitted the solidarity Britain has shown during the Russo - Japanese war, France has thrown in the towel far too early and is too miserly to honour its debts, Belgium has not really fought, either, the Yankees are greedy usurers, etc. etc. (Robert Graves' war memoirs Goodbye to All That mentions severe prejudices among the Western Allies even in OTL, but in this timeline the problem gets worse) Oswald Mosley, who has stayed a member of the Conservative Party is able to exploit this latent xenophobia and manages to tilt this party into a xenophobic (though not fascist) direction.
Austro-Hungarian empire turned into a federation
The Austrian Emperor decides on turning Austria Hungary into a federation of autonomous states, with borders coinciding, as far as this is possible, with those of the various ethnic groups. These states are intended to have the Emperor as a common head of state, a common currency and customs union, but each of them is planned to have its own parliament, tax laws, armed forces and police. This federation is to include the lately re-constituted Poland (which includes Kowno / Kaunas and most of Poznan). Hungary refuses to give up control in the non-Hungarian areas of its part of the empire. Hungarians are defeated by Austrian, German and Romanian troops, supported by non-Hungarian volunteers that have deserted the Hungarian army.
Multiple crises for Germany, Germany becomes a parliamentary monarchy
At the same time, there are communist and anarchist revolts in the Ukraine and revolts against the German landed aristocracy in the United Baltic Duchy, all of which are fought by German troops. There are also communist revolts in the Ruhr district, Thuringia and Saxony. Wilhelm II temporarily loses his faith in the survival of his dynasty and cedes control of the executive branch to the Reichstag (the legislative has been under control of the Reichstag since the founding of the German Empire in 1871).
In Berlin, a coalition government is formed from members of the Social Democrats, the Catholic Center party and the Liberals. The demands of the Estonian and Latvian rebellions are fulfilled, with the short lived United Baltic Duchy being dissolved into Estonia and Latvia and land reforms at the expense of the German aristocracy. The communist uprisings in Germany are crushed relatively quickly, while it takes much longer to suppress the Ukrainian revolts.
Hungary loses control over non-Hungarian lands
Transylvania, with the exception of the Székely Land becomes part of Romania, which joins the customs union of the Habsburg federation and concludes long term contracts for the delivery of oil to the federation. The formerly Hungarian Burgenland, with a German speaking majority and adjacent to Austria, becomes part of Austria (as in OTL), other German majority areas become Austrian enclaves surrounded by Hungarian territory.
Austrian Anschluss
With Germany now being a parliamentary monarchy - a de facto democracy - Germans have now considerably greater control over their government than Austrians, and there is a growing demand in the Austrian population for an Anschluss to Germany (In OTL, the Austrian parliament declared Austria to be part of Germany soon after the Austrian emperor was deposed).
The Austrian emperor remains the head of state of the Habsburg federation, including Austria, but Austria becomes part of Germany, with German laws being valid, and Austrians voting for the Reichstag in Berlin. The German Mark becomes the currency of the Habsburg federation, whose member countries (with the exception of Austria), retain their national autonomy (including their own armies, police, judges, laws etc.)
Central European Customs Union
Germany, the Habsburg Federation and Romania form a customs union, called the
Mitteleuropäische Zollunion. Serbia and Montenegro, already under Austrian economic control, also become members. Albania is dependent on protection by the Central Powers and also joins, as do Latvia and Estonia. Denmark joins for territorial concessions in Northern Slesvig, Ukraine for Eastern Galicia. Latvia and Estonia also adopt the German Mark as currency, after receiving military aid against communist insurgents and financial support for their land reforms.
European Free Trade Zone
While exporting to the Mitteleuropäische Zollunion ( now comprising Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Denmark, Germany (including Austria, the Sudetenland, Lithuania and Luxemburg), Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Ukraine) is attractive to any European country, most of them are afraid of the kind of control that a customs union brings. Therefore, a new entity is created, the Europäische Freihandelszone (European Free Trade Zone). Members of this zone and the members of the Central European Customs Union mutually abolish their tariffs, although there is no common policy in the European Free Trade Zone as far as customs towards third parties are concerned.
Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and Switzerland join the European Free Trade Zone. Italy joins after buying Trentino for a billion Marks.
By 1924 the resulting economic boom in the Central European Customs Union leads to a shortage of labor. Germany facilitates immigration from other Customs Union countries and from Italy, Czechia soon follows suit. Poland passes similar laws in 1925, partly in order to replace workers that have migrated to Germany.
More disturbances in India
With the disturbances in India during WW I being more serious than in OTL, the worries among the British in India about new uprisings after the war run even deeper. This is exacerbated by the fact that Germany is an unbeaten power, that is still suspected of wanting to cause trouble, together with the Soviets, although the democratically elected German government has absolutely no interest in doing so. In 1919, there is an equivalent to OTL's Amritsar massacre, with even more casualties, and an even greater disparity between the number of victims officially acknowledged by the British authorities and the number that results from an inquiry by the Congress party.
The inroad of the Afghan emir Amanullah Khan into British India in 1919 causes much greater difficulties for the British, since there are still more weapons among the Indian population, and the outrage about British behavior is even greater. Unrest continues for years and is a drain on British resources.
France defaults on its debts, triggering an international crisis
Britain's financial situation becomes worse because of greater debts to the US and because of France's increasing difficulties to repay its loans from Britain.
In 1926 France defaults on its debts to Britain, half a year later Britain defaults on its debts to the US, triggering an international financial and economic crisis.
The feeling to have been betrayed by the outside world, which is a common occurrence in any country in crisis, is much stronger in Britain in this TL than in OTL. The resulting hostility, exploited by Oswald Mosley (still in the Conservative Party) leads to large protectionist increases in tariffs, which results in similar measures in other countries, leading to a severe decline in international trade.
The countries of the European Free Trade Zone and the Central European Customs Union survive the crisis with relatively minor losses since their respective treaties keep them from putting up customs barriers against each other. The Central European Customs Union is also in a much better position to threaten to impose retaliatory tariffs, than any individual country, with the exception of the USA. Equally imporant is the fact that the peace treaty of 1918 forbids Britain, France and Belgium to raise tariffs for goods from the former Central Powers and vice versa.
France is less export - oriented than Britain or Germany and withstands the crisis relatively well, too. The USA has more difficulties, but with its own huge domestic market, it is still vastly better off than Britain, which is the worst hit of all the major economies.
French-Italian free trade agreement, Belgium becomes a member of the European Free Trade Zone
In 1929 various countries try to get out of the mess the general 'beggar thy neighbor' policy has brought them by forging new economic unions. France tries to create a 'Latin Economic Union' with Italy, Belgium, Spain and Portugal. The negotiations with Italy succeed and result in a free trade agreement with France, although Italy retains its membership in the European Free Trade Zone. Negotiations with Spain and Portugal stall.
There are negotiations between Belgium and France for a customs union, but they are forestalled by Germany's offer of large credit-free loans to Belgium in exchange for Belgian membership in the European Free Trade Zone. Credit is somewhat hard to get in an economic crisis and the offer is taken up, with Belgium becoming a member of the Free Trade Zone in 1931.
Imperial Preference not achieved
The British government tries to get out of the crisis with the creation of Imperial Preference, just as in OTL, but the negotiations fail for similar reasons as in OTL. Winston Churchill, as in OTL, opposes Imperial Preference and favors free trade. The general disappointment with the outside world in Britain (the Dominions being a possible exception), cause new and severe protectionist measures beyond those in OTL. They increase isolationism in the USA and economic difficulties in France and other countries. They also backfire in Britain: with imports being made more expensive by increased tariffs, there are fewer people in Britain who want to buy foreign currencies that would be needed to pay for these imports. This results in a strengthening of the pound, which in turn makes British exports more expensive in those countries whose currencies have lost in value in relation to the pound.
As Chancellor of the Exchequer in a Conservative Cabinet, Oswald Mosley recommends restriction of imports from within the Empire, mainly referring to manufactured goods from India and Hong Kong, and even dismantling factories in India. His ideas are quickly rejected by the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues, but they are leaked, and the news makes its way to India, where mass protests follow.
Mosley is forced to resign, his place is taken up by Winston Churchill. He tries to reverse the protectionist tariffs, but is alone in his struggle and does not succeed.
France becomes a member of the European Free Trade Zone
The German government, a coalition of Social Democrats, Catholics of the Center Party and Liberals, tries to win France as a member of the European Free Trade Zone. Although the economic situation in France is not critical, it is difficult for the French government to get credit after defaulting on its WW I loans. Thus Germany offers multi-billion mark loans at market rates from the time before the crisis of 1926.
This leads to an outcry on the far right in Germany, which claims that the governing coalition wants to doubly betray Germany: on the one hand by demanding less interest than the current market rates, and on the other by inviting a heavily industrialised and populous nation into the Free Trade Zone. The far right claims that the lower wages prevalent in France, combined with its modern machinery, will drive German products from the markets. Of course, there are many countries in the European Customs Union with lower wages, Albania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine among them. There are also industrialised nations like Czechia, Switzerland or Belgium in the Customs Union or Free Trade Zone, but none is a large country and traditional enemy like France. Therefore the protests against the government's plan find some support in the German population, but the plan is carried out nonetheless.
To be continued