The End of Britain and France as Great Powers

This provisional timeline was written by me as a response to the challenge expressed in this thread: WW2 or prior, what does it take to thoroughly beat Britain?

Basic assumptions
A basic assumption was that a German - British war, as in the two OTL world wars, was much likelier than a British - US, or British - French war. Furthermore I assumed that one big war in the twentieth century is not enough to eliminate Britain as a great power.
A further assumption was that it is easiest to beat Britain if it is isolated, apart from the support from the Empire, and that this is not ASB, since Britain was isolated to that extent in OTL between the fall of France and Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union. It is obvious that to continue this isolation, there must be developments to prevent the Soviet Union and the USA from entering the war.

The seemingly easiest way of preventing the Soviet Union from entering is Germany not attacking the Soviet Union, but this does obviously not prevent the Soviet Union from attacking Germany in its turn. But I think this can be prevented if the Soviet Union does not regain the territories it lost at Brest-Litovsk, and if Germany succeeds in making allies of an independent Poland and Ukraine.

I assumed that economic tensions between Britain and the USA that are even stronger than the OTL ones, combined with a still more negative image of British imperialism, would increase isolationism in the USA to the extent of preventing an entry of the USA into WW II and also aid through Lend - Lease.

I then assumed that the above developments could be brought about by an ending to WW I that is much more favorable to Germany than the OTL one.

Avoiding multiple PODs
Multiple PODs are generally considered as inelegant and I share this general feeling. On the other hand I did not think it possible for Germany to get a better peace in 1918 if the German leadership took just one decision that was different from OTL. But for me the assumption that one important person is much more intelligent in this TL than in OTL, is just one POD, not multiple PODs, even if this results in this person's taking several decisions that are different from OTL, and not only one.
The most obvious candidate for a person to be more intelligent in this TL than in OTL is Kaiser Wilhelm II. If he had shown more intelligence, application and realism, there might very well have been a totally different equivalent to OTL's World War One (or of course no World War One at all, but that was not the point of the challenge)

Improvements welcome
My timeline is not finished yet, I would like to conclude it in the year 1945, with the defeat of Britain. Even in those parts that I have already written, there are many vague passages, and suggestions for a more concrete description of the respective events are most welcome, as well as other comments and criticism.


The Provisional Timeline

A greater sense of realism
As the end of the nineteenth century nears Kaiser Wilhelm II loses his enthusiasm and overconfidence in Germany's strength and his own abilities and acquires a more realistic sense of what Germany's situation would be, if it had to fight another war. He succeds in impartings his views to the military and political leadership of Germany. They begin to understand that Germany might find itself blockaded, as in the earlier war against France in 1870/71 and even in the war against Denmark in 1864. With then modern firepower favoring the defence, a future war might last much longer than those recent conflicts and have much more serious consequences. To counter a possible blockade with a superior German fleet might just be possible against a Russian - French alliance but impossible if this alliance includes Britain, due to the very much superior geographical position of Britain and its greater number of shipyards.

Strategical stockpiles
Since a British blockade cannot be broken (much less a British-French one), provisions must be made of strategical materials and food. Tarrifs on grain imports are reduced or abolished, as an ostensible gesture of good will towards the grain-exporting nations, or as concessions in trade negotiations. At the same time stockpiles of grain are built up, ostensibly as a measure to stabilize prices. Stocks of saltpetre and other strategical materials are also built up, partly secretly financed by slush funds, such as those from the confiscated properties of the King of Hannover and the Elector of Hesse - Darmstadt.

Reduced ambitions
Germany does not acquire the Pacific island colonies or Tsingtao, and does not interfere in the Spanish - American war, which saves Germany both some financial resources and good will in the United States. Export subsidies are abolished, both for financial reasons and reasons of foreign policy. The Prussian Settlement Commission, which had the task of strengthening German landowners at the expense of Polish ones in West Prussia and Posen / Poznan is abolished because it has completely failed to fulfill its mission.

The Balkan wars might occur as in OTL, but Germany is less aggressive in the Moroccan crises than OTL. Germany's strategy is based on the Schlieffen plan just as in OTL, but with the difference that the High Sea Fleet plans to make a sally to the Channel to delay the deployment of the British Expeditionary Forces as much as possible. It is also agreed between the German and Austrian General staffs that a declaration of war on Serbia will automatically mean war with Russia (and France), and that Austria therefore has to mobilise the bulk of its army against Russia. Preparations are also made for a 'silent' mobilisation - one without a public declaration conducted as secretly as possible.

World War One breaks out at the same time as OTL
The assassinations of Sarajevo occur at about the same time as in OTL.

Germany and Austrian quickly decide on secretly mobilizing their forces and making an ultimatum for the Serbian government which they expect to be rejected. Russian and French declarations of war are expected as a matter of course and even the British one is accepted as a likelihood.

The Germans attack France through Belgium as in OTL, but they have three advantages:
- They started to mobilise more quickly than the Allies
- The deployment of the British Expeditionary Forces is delayed by the High Sea Fleet, which has both taken and inflicted heavy losses during its sally into the Channel
- The German commander does not detach three corps to the East from the attacking force in the West, because Austria - Hungary has mobilised the bulk of its army against Russia from the start.

No "Cannae" as envisioned by Schlieffen, but a much better situation for Germany
Germany still does not complete the encirclement of the French army envisioned in the Schlieffen plan, but the front lines stabilise substantially further in the South and West than in OTL.

Germany has the following advantages compared with OTL:
- One or more additional Channel ports occupied by Germany, complicating the Allied supply situation.
- More French mines and factories denied to the Allies.
- Several French mines that were blown up by the Germans, instead of being used by them, because they were too close to the frontlines, are exploited by Germany in this timeline.
- Several French population centres with men of military age are now occupied by Germany and cannot contribute to the Allied war effort.

In 1914, the same countries are at war as in OTL, with the one exception of Japan, which has no reason to go to war whatsoever, since it has no German colonies to conquer. With the overall situation more in favor of the Central Powers, neither Italy nor Romania join the Allies. The neutrality of the latter slightly improves the fuel situation of the Central Powers.

No Hindenburg programme and more tanks for Germany
Ludendorff and Hindenburg do not become supreme army commanders and there is no Hindenburg crash armament programme which derailed and set back the German armament effort. Germany profits from the strategical stockpiles amassed before the war, while Britain is under greater strain than in OTL to make good for the more reduced French war potential and the slightly longer supply lines.

Britain fields the first tanks in 1916, as in OTL, but France, which produced much greater numbers than Britain in OTL, can produce only much smaller numbers. Germany, which produced only insignificant numbers in OTL, is able to produce greater numbers of tanks than in OTL, which are also of a more practical, smaller design, because they are not to act in the additional role of transports.

Poland treated better by the Central Powers than in OTL
An "independent" Poland is declared by the Central Powers in 1916 as in OTL, but in this timeline it is made clear from the start that a Habsburg is going to be its monarch and that it will at the very least comprise all of formerly Russian Poland (instead of being reduced and partially "ethnically cleansed" in favor of Germany). As the war situation develops more in Germany's favor, Lithuania is conquered and the German leadership plans to annex this country, as a compensation for the larger part of Posen / Poznan which it is willing to cede to Poland.

Peace of Brest-Litovsk
The Russian revolution takes place, possibly slightly earlier than in OTL. As in OTL, Lenin is sent to Russia, and the Bolsheviks come to power.

The Germans make roughly the same demands from the Bolshevik government, which this initially refuses, resulting in the same German advance eastwards as in OTL. The Ukraine is declared independent as in OTL, but Germany and Austria - Hungary demand less grain from it. No German detachments are sent further East, to Georgia and Baku, as in OTL.

No US intervention
Meanwhile, Germany has declared unrestricted submarine warfare, but the lack of pre-war US - German tensions and the absence of the Zimmermann telegramm prevent a declaration of war by the USA.

More revolts in British India
Britain's situation has been exacerbated by revolts in India during the war. In OTL there were attempts by the Central powers to foment rebellion with shipments of weapons and revolutionary literature, and the changes mentioned above in the general course of the war might have resulted in these rebellions really taking off.

Successful German offensive in the West
As in OTL Germany tries to force a decision in the West in 1918. The offensive starts with more and better fed troops and more tanks and a better position to start from than in OTL, and is also supported by another sally into the Channel by the High Sea Fleet. The offensive succeeds in encircling Paris and capturing a large number of Allied troops there. Germany offers peace negotiations and the Allies take up the offer.

Peace in the West
The negotiations result in the following settlement:
- Germany has to withdraw from Belgian and French territory within one year and a half. Germany restores the complete territorial integrity and sovereignty of Belgium. Germany concedes all of its colonies to Britain, France or Belgium. Germany scraps 35 per cent of its remaining fleet, including 35 per cent of the tonnage of the capital ships. No construction of new ships for Germany above destroyer size for ten years, and no modernisation of the main armament of these ships for the same time.

- The Allies immediately end their blockade of the Central Powers. They recognize the new territorial and political order in Eastern and Central Europe. France cedes the ore basin of Longwy and Briey to Germany. The Allies recognize the annexation of Luxemburg by Germany.

- Serbia has to cede the Kosovo to Albania and is put under economic control by Austria - Hungary, as is Montenegro. The Karageorgevic dynasty is deposed. Poland becomes a monarchy under a Habsburg prince. It includes all of formerly Russian Poland and most of Poznan, but is under economic control of Germany and Austria – Hungary.

- Turkey gains Abkhazia, Azerbaijan and parts of north-western Persia

- Bulgaria gains the Vardar region from Serbia.

- There are no financial demands on either side. Britain, France and Belgium on the one hand and the Central Powers on the other guarantee not to increase tariffs against each other for the next twenty years.

Post WW I Financial situation for Britain and France worse than in OTL
The war ends with Britain and France in a much worse financial situation than in OTL. With most of its industry in German - occupied territory, France has had to fight with British equipment, burning British coal (as in OTL) and importing food with British credit. France's debts to Britain are much larger than in OTL, and so are Britain's debts to the USA. France has a single advantage compared to OTL - there has been no German retreat with a scorched earth policy - but the ore mines of Longwy and Briey are gone permanently, there are no German reparations, and no exploitation of the Saarland either.

Britain and France have larger debts, but the US is also less willing to grant them moratoriums or restructure their debts, since there has been no common struggle against the same enemy.

Resentment in the British public against allies
When France defaults on its war debts, there is a feeling among many Britons that their country has been betrayed by everyone. Italy has not honoured its treaty with France, Japan has not requitted the solidarity Britain has shown during the Russo - Japanese war, France has thrown in the towel far too early and is too miserly to honour its debts, Belgium has not really fought, either, the Yankees are greedy usurers, etc. etc. (Robert Graves' war memoirs Goodbye to All That mentions severe prejudices among the Western Allies even in OTL, but in this timeline the problem gets worse) Oswald Mosley, who has stayed a member of the Conservative Party is able to exploit this latent xenophobia and manages to tilt this party into a xenophobic (though not fascist) direction.


Austro-Hungarian empire turned into a federation
The Austrian Emperor decides on turning Austria Hungary into a federation of autonomous states, with borders coinciding, as far as this is possible, with those of the various ethnic groups. These states are intended to have the Emperor as a common head of state, a common currency and customs union, but each of them is planned to have its own parliament, tax laws, armed forces and police. This federation is to include the lately re-constituted Poland (which includes Kowno / Kaunas and most of Poznan). Hungary refuses to give up control in the non-Hungarian areas of its part of the empire. Hungarians are defeated by Austrian, German and Romanian troops, supported by non-Hungarian volunteers that have deserted the Hungarian army.


Multiple crises for Germany, Germany becomes a parliamentary monarchy
At the same time, there are communist and anarchist revolts in the Ukraine and revolts against the German landed aristocracy in the United Baltic Duchy, all of which are fought by German troops. There are also communist revolts in the Ruhr district, Thuringia and Saxony. Wilhelm II temporarily loses his faith in the survival of his dynasty and cedes control of the executive branch to the Reichstag (the legislative has been under control of the Reichstag since the founding of the German Empire in 1871).

In Berlin, a coalition government is formed from members of the Social Democrats, the Catholic Center party and the Liberals. The demands of the Estonian and Latvian rebellions are fulfilled, with the short lived United Baltic Duchy being dissolved into Estonia and Latvia and land reforms at the expense of the German aristocracy. The communist uprisings in Germany are crushed relatively quickly, while it takes much longer to suppress the Ukrainian revolts.

Hungary loses control over non-Hungarian lands
Transylvania, with the exception of the Székely Land becomes part of Romania, which joins the customs union of the Habsburg federation and concludes long term contracts for the delivery of oil to the federation. The formerly Hungarian Burgenland, with a German speaking majority and adjacent to Austria, becomes part of Austria (as in OTL), other German majority areas become Austrian enclaves surrounded by Hungarian territory.

Austrian Anschluss
With Germany now being a parliamentary monarchy - a de facto democracy - Germans have now considerably greater control over their government than Austrians, and there is a growing demand in the Austrian population for an Anschluss to Germany (In OTL, the Austrian parliament declared Austria to be part of Germany soon after the Austrian emperor was deposed).

The Austrian emperor remains the head of state of the Habsburg federation, including Austria, but Austria becomes part of Germany, with German laws being valid, and Austrians voting for the Reichstag in Berlin. The German Mark becomes the currency of the Habsburg federation, whose member countries (with the exception of Austria), retain their national autonomy (including their own armies, police, judges, laws etc.)

Central European Customs Union
Germany, the Habsburg Federation and Romania form a customs union, called the Mitteleuropäische Zollunion. Serbia and Montenegro, already under Austrian economic control, also become members. Albania is dependent on protection by the Central Powers and also joins, as do Latvia and Estonia. Denmark joins for territorial concessions in Northern Slesvig, Ukraine for Eastern Galicia. Latvia and Estonia also adopt the German Mark as currency, after receiving military aid against communist insurgents and financial support for their land reforms.

European Free Trade Zone
While exporting to the Mitteleuropäische Zollunion ( now comprising Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Denmark, Germany (including Austria, the Sudetenland, Lithuania and Luxemburg), Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Serbia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Ukraine) is attractive to any European country, most of them are afraid of the kind of control that a customs union brings. Therefore, a new entity is created, the Europäische Freihandelszone (European Free Trade Zone). Members of this zone and the members of the Central European Customs Union mutually abolish their tariffs, although there is no common policy in the European Free Trade Zone as far as customs towards third parties are concerned.

Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and Switzerland join the European Free Trade Zone. Italy joins after buying Trentino for a billion Marks.

By 1924 the resulting economic boom in the Central European Customs Union leads to a shortage of labor. Germany facilitates immigration from other Customs Union countries and from Italy, Czechia soon follows suit. Poland passes similar laws in 1925, partly in order to replace workers that have migrated to Germany.

More disturbances in India
With the disturbances in India during WW I being more serious than in OTL, the worries among the British in India about new uprisings after the war run even deeper. This is exacerbated by the fact that Germany is an unbeaten power, that is still suspected of wanting to cause trouble, together with the Soviets, although the democratically elected German government has absolutely no interest in doing so. In 1919, there is an equivalent to OTL's Amritsar massacre, with even more casualties, and an even greater disparity between the number of victims officially acknowledged by the British authorities and the number that results from an inquiry by the Congress party.

The inroad of the Afghan emir Amanullah Khan into British India in 1919 causes much greater difficulties for the British, since there are still more weapons among the Indian population, and the outrage about British behavior is even greater. Unrest continues for years and is a drain on British resources.

France defaults on its debts, triggering an international crisis
Britain's financial situation becomes worse because of greater debts to the US and because of France's increasing difficulties to repay its loans from Britain.

In 1926 France defaults on its debts to Britain, half a year later Britain defaults on its debts to the US, triggering an international financial and economic crisis.

The feeling to have been betrayed by the outside world, which is a common occurrence in any country in crisis, is much stronger in Britain in this TL than in OTL. The resulting hostility, exploited by Oswald Mosley (still in the Conservative Party) leads to large protectionist increases in tariffs, which results in similar measures in other countries, leading to a severe decline in international trade.

The countries of the European Free Trade Zone and the Central European Customs Union survive the crisis with relatively minor losses since their respective treaties keep them from putting up customs barriers against each other. The Central European Customs Union is also in a much better position to threaten to impose retaliatory tariffs, than any individual country, with the exception of the USA. Equally imporant is the fact that the peace treaty of 1918 forbids Britain, France and Belgium to raise tariffs for goods from the former Central Powers and vice versa.
France is less export - oriented than Britain or Germany and withstands the crisis relatively well, too. The USA has more difficulties, but with its own huge domestic market, it is still vastly better off than Britain, which is the worst hit of all the major economies.

French-Italian free trade agreement, Belgium becomes a member of the European Free Trade Zone
In 1929 various countries try to get out of the mess the general 'beggar thy neighbor' policy has brought them by forging new economic unions. France tries to create a 'Latin Economic Union' with Italy, Belgium, Spain and Portugal. The negotiations with Italy succeed and result in a free trade agreement with France, although Italy retains its membership in the European Free Trade Zone. Negotiations with Spain and Portugal stall.

There are negotiations between Belgium and France for a customs union, but they are forestalled by Germany's offer of large credit-free loans to Belgium in exchange for Belgian membership in the European Free Trade Zone. Credit is somewhat hard to get in an economic crisis and the offer is taken up, with Belgium becoming a member of the Free Trade Zone in 1931.

Imperial Preference not achieved
The British government tries to get out of the crisis with the creation of Imperial Preference, just as in OTL, but the negotiations fail for similar reasons as in OTL. Winston Churchill, as in OTL, opposes Imperial Preference and favors free trade. The general disappointment with the outside world in Britain (the Dominions being a possible exception), cause new and severe protectionist measures beyond those in OTL. They increase isolationism in the USA and economic difficulties in France and other countries. They also backfire in Britain: with imports being made more expensive by increased tariffs, there are fewer people in Britain who want to buy foreign currencies that would be needed to pay for these imports. This results in a strengthening of the pound, which in turn makes British exports more expensive in those countries whose currencies have lost in value in relation to the pound.

As Chancellor of the Exchequer in a Conservative Cabinet, Oswald Mosley recommends restriction of imports from within the Empire, mainly referring to manufactured goods from India and Hong Kong, and even dismantling factories in India. His ideas are quickly rejected by the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues, but they are leaked, and the news makes its way to India, where mass protests follow.

Mosley is forced to resign, his place is taken up by Winston Churchill. He tries to reverse the protectionist tariffs, but is alone in his struggle and does not succeed.

France becomes a member of the European Free Trade Zone
The German government, a coalition of Social Democrats, Catholics of the Center Party and Liberals, tries to win France as a member of the European Free Trade Zone. Although the economic situation in France is not critical, it is difficult for the French government to get credit after defaulting on its WW I loans. Thus Germany offers multi-billion mark loans at market rates from the time before the crisis of 1926.

This leads to an outcry on the far right in Germany, which claims that the governing coalition wants to doubly betray Germany: on the one hand by demanding less interest than the current market rates, and on the other by inviting a heavily industrialised and populous nation into the Free Trade Zone. The far right claims that the lower wages prevalent in France, combined with its modern machinery, will drive German products from the markets. Of course, there are many countries in the European Customs Union with lower wages, Albania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine among them. There are also industrialised nations like Czechia, Switzerland or Belgium in the Customs Union or Free Trade Zone, but none is a large country and traditional enemy like France. Therefore the protests against the government's plan find some support in the German population, but the plan is carried out nonetheless.

To be continued
 
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France enters the European Free Trade Zone in 1932. The tariffs that have existed before between Germany and France have not been very high, since the peace treaty of 1918 expressly forbade Britain, France and Belgium on the one hand, and the Central Powers on the other, to raise them above pre-war levels. Nevertheless, their abolishment still greatly facilitates trade in Europe and increases wealth in all countries of the Free Trade Zone and the Central European Customs Union.

This successful example of co-operation between former enemies encourages both the German and the French government to continue their talks on mutual reductions of their armed forces that had already been going on. The outcome of the talks is a reduction of the armies of both countries, but allows the German army to be bigger than the French one, although the German army is still smaller than it would be if its size were proportional to the German population in the same way that the French army is proportional to the French population. The larger size of the German army is allowed in recognition of the fact that Germany still maintains sizeable forces in the Ukraine and that France has no threat to deal with that is comparable to the (rump) Soviet Union, and that France is allied with Britain, which still has troops stationed in France since the end of WW I.

There are loud protests against this disarmament treaty on the political right in both Germany and France, but the treaty is ratified in the parliament of both countries nevertheless and comes into force in 1934.

In 1935, the next parliamentary elections in Germany and France result in an increased share of the vote for the far right in both countries, with many people in both countries suspecting that their country has been cheated by their respective government in the disarmament talks.

In Germany this results in a coalition of the right wing of the Center Party with the Vaterlandspartei ('Fatherland Party', in OTL this was the name of a pro-war party during WW I, that was dissolved in the Weimar Republic).

In France the 'Cartel of the Left' that had been governing before the elections with support from the communist party, but without comprising communist ministers, loses enough votes to the right that it becomes more dependent on communist members of parliament, and a Popular Front is formed, which includes communist ministers.

The fear of a communist France increases the popularity of the right wing German government, which is also supported by arms manufacturers, high ranking officers concerned over their career prospects or the future security of Germany - or both - and a Kaiser and crown prince dissatisfied with the ceremonial role the German constitution has left them with.
 
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Tensions between Germany and France are further heightened when a popular front comes to power in Spain , and especially when the French government supports the Spanish government against the Nationalist uprising in 1936. Germany and Italy advocate a policy of non-intervention and Britain and France take up the idea. Germany and Italy, however, keep secretly supplying the Nationalist side.

When the clandestine support for the Spanish Nationalists becomes known, there is a public outcry in all countries concerned. Furthermore, it turns out that the German chancellor (Franz v. Papen perhaps) was privy to the support all along. There is a vote of no confidence by the Reichstag, and new elections are called. The results of the election give a narrow majority to the well-known coalition between Center Party, Social Democrats and Liberals. Just before this coalition government is sworn in, there is a military coup that installs a government of generals, non-party civilians and members of the Fatherland Party.

The putschist government promises to hold new democratic elections "when the grave danger to the nation has been eliminated." Political parties and trade unions are not outlawed, but all open criticism of the government is persecuted. Germany meets its obligations as a member of the Central European Customs Union and does not break the treaty for the reduction of armed forces. The support for the Spanish Nationalists is continued, however, and the production of all weapons that are not limited by treaty is substantially increased.
 
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In this timeline, the Soviet Union is a country that is even poorer than in OTL. The loss of Ukraine causes the Soviet leadership to have more land in the remaining territories cultivated. The land, however is not alway well suited to agriculture, or agriculture is more labor intensive than in Ukraine. The loss of Azerbaijan leads to oil exploration and drilling in Siberia, which however is also more difficult and expensive.

Factories cannot mass produce items in such large numbers as in OTL, because the Soviet population is substantially smaller (and exporting is largely impossible due to the low quality of Soviet products). Producing in smaller numbers is more expensive per item than in larger ones, which reduces the living standards still more.

The Soviet Union's European neighbors, however, are richer than in OTL, due to the high degree of economic co-operation within Europe, and it is generally known that countries like Germany, Czechia or Switzerland are richer still. The result is a steady stream of people escaping the Soviet Union or being shot or arrested by Soviet border guards. Those who do manage to escape often have to struggle with xenophobia in the countries where they arrive, but usually succeed in finding employment and a better live.

As a result, there are far fewer communist sympathizers in the world in this timeline. Since the popular front in Spain also has communist ministers, there are fewer international volunteers for the Republican side. What becomes more important, there are Nationalist sympathizers in Republican-held Cartagena, who learn that the Republican government is planning to send most of the Bank of Spain's gold treasure to the Soviet Union to pay for arms shipments (the so called Moscow Gold in OTL). The Nationalist sympathizers succeed in informing the Nationalist high command, which in turn informs the Italian government. The convoy carrying the gold is intercepted by Italian warships and the gold is stored on the Nationalist-held Baleares.

The lack of the Spanish gold for payment and the Soviet Union's refusal to give weapons and equipment to the Republican side for free means that this side is much less well armed than in OTL, and the SU's lack of solidarity leads to further disillusionment and loss of morale on the Republican side.

When this timeline's equivalent of the events of the Barcelona May Days occur, the disillusionment on the Left is still greater and leads to a further reduction of the number of volunteers.

With the captured gold, the Nationalist side is in a much better position to pay for its weapons, Italy has no Ethiopian war eating up resources, Germany does not have to build up its armed forces as in OTL, and so the Nationalist side is much better equipped.
 
In several instances, civilians in formerly Republican territory or surrendering Republican troops are protected by Italian or German troops. The more marked superiority in equipment and training on the Nationalist side results in the Spanish Civil War ending eight months earlier (September 1938 instead April 1939) and with corespondingly smaller losses of life and property. Part of the loans that Italy and Germany have made to Spain to pay for military equipment, are converted into grants, with the rest to be paid back over a longer period of time.

Dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party's handling of the economic crisis and the protests in India lead to a Labour victory in the elections of 1937. The promise of independence by 1947 calms the unrest in India. Nationalisation of coal and steel industries takes place in 1938. Negotiations with the United States over mutual reduction of tariffs take place but lead to no results for several years.

There is a general condemnation of the German military government, but the facts that Britain's post WW I situation has been more difficult than the OTL one, and that the military government has made no overt plans for military expansion result in Britain's military expenditures being slightly smaller than in OTL.

In 1938, the tariff barriers against Germany are substantially raised (the peace treaty of 1918 had expressly forbidden this for twenty years).
The German military government has articles inserted in seemingly independent German newspapers, claiming that the British government's criticism of the German government is hypocritical and motivated only by 'Handelsneid' (trade envy), a propaganda term that has already been used in WW I.
 
Another theme that is frequently found in newspaper articles "inspired" by the German military government are the rising prices of raw materials, especially mineral oil, and a German colonial empire is suggested as a remedy to that problem. In fact, Germany's oil supply is pretty much secure, with Germany being still allied with a reformed Turkish empire that still owns Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and that has gained Azerbaijan after WW I. Romania is a part of the Central European Customs Union, and the Netherlands (ruling over the Dutch East Indies) is a member of the European Free Trade Zone. For all that, the demand for oil and some other raw materials outstrips supply, leading to rising prices inevitably.

The Italian geologist and explorer Ardito Desio discovered oil in Libya in OTL in the nineteen-thirties, there are conflicting reports as to whether this took place in 1936 or 1938. Let's say that the earlier date is true in this timeline. Investments in oil are even bigger money spinners in this timeline at the time of this discovery, and there is far more capital available in Italy, so Italian firms start exploring Libya. This in turn leads to large improvements in the infrastructure of Libyan and Italian ports. It turns out that the deposits near the surface are relatively small, but experience with oil findings in the US show that these can be indications of bigger deposits beneath. The deep drilling equipment is bought in the US and exploration continues, although oil is not produced in large quantities before 1943.

There are several reasons why Britain is unpopular in the US: defaulting on its war debts, higher protectionist tariffs and mishandling of Indian popular revolts. "Socialist, bankrupt Britain" is also used as a cautionary example by Republican politicians deriding FDR's new deal. As a result Robert A. Taft wins the Republican presidential nomination and the presidential election in 1940.
 
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Retcon: Near the end of WW I, with Russia already in a civil war, Japan has occupied Outer (Russian) Manchuria and northern Sakhalin, as in OTL. Other than in OTL, there are no other powers that have intervened there: Britain or Canada cannot spare any troops, and the USA does not have the reasons or pretexts of safeguarding war materiel or rescuing the Czech Legion, which does not exist in this TL.

Japan does not retreat from Outer Manchuria or northern Sakhalin, as it did in 1925 OTL. One of the reasons for the OTL retreat, the victories of the communist side in the Russian civil war, is far less significant, as it means victory only in a rump Soviet Union, which apart from losing Finnland, the Baltic states and all the territory it lost to Poland in OTL, also lost Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan with its oil. With significant numbers of German troops in Ukraine, the Soviet Union cannot exert the pressure to expell the Japanese.

The other reason for the OTL Japanese retreat in 1925 is also less significant: American and British economic pressure. As an incentive for an anti-Soviet alliance, Germany has offered Japan access without any tariff barriers to the Central European Customs Union. The economic sanctions that the US imposes, due to the continued Japanese occupation of formerly Russian territory, hurt the US almost as much as Japan and are lifted as early as 1926, while Britain, feeling similar consequences, did not apply sanctions in the first place.

With Sakhalin completely in Japanes hands, Japan's fuel situation is better than in OTL, although still far from self-sufficiency.
 
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Retcon continued: As pointed out above, Germany did not acquire the Kiautschou Bay concession, or any other territory from China in this timeline. Neither were there any massacres committed by German troops on the Chinese, as there were in OTL after the killing of the German diplomat von Ketteler. There were several hundred German firms doing business in China pre WW I in OTL, and there are almost as many in this TL. In contrast to OTL, they do not cease their activities in WW I.
Germany is generally seen as both more benevolent to China, and stronger and even more expert in things military than in OTL.

With large German armed forces existing after WW I, there is no compelling reason for German armament firms to sell arms to Chinese warlords merely for profit, but the German government subidizes arms sales to the Kuomintang government. There are also even more German military advisors than in OTL. The democratically elected German governments co-operates with other European governments and the US government in preventing arms exports to most Chinese warlords. The Kuomintang does not need support from the Soviet Union and the Chinese communist party receives only little help from the much weakened Soviet Union. The experience the German military has gained in anti-guerilla warfare in Ukraine is also helpful.

The third principle of various German governments, apart from supporting the Kuomintang and preventing arms sales to most of the warlords, is respecting the Japanese sphere of influence in Manchuria under the Chinese warlord Zhang Zuolin. On the other hand Zhang Zuolin does not try to extend his sphere beyond Manchuria, which he tried in OTL, ruining the economy of Manchuria in the process. Japan is interested in continued exports into the Central European Customs Union, the USA and the British Empire, which in this field co-operate with the Customs Union, and therefore does not try to expand its sphere of power beyond Manchuria either. Another reason for not expanding is the fact that the Kuomintang is not seen as a potential Soviet ally. Manchuria also remains officially a part of the Republic of China.

These developments result in much less fighting both between the Kuomintang and the warlords, and the Kuomintang and the Communists, and a substantially better off China.
China has a slightly larger air force, with a much reduced number of types operated, concentrating on German and American models.

Japanese firms profit from their investments in Manchuria, without Japan having to deploy large numbers of troops to back up the puppet regime of Manchukuo.
With the Japanese economy doing well, the civilian element is strengthened against the military.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
Yes, the Kaiser changing his policy and personality does make it where Germany can win WW1, but the butterflies mean that if there is a WW1, it will look nothing like OTL. Now to more specifics:

1) The England blockade was illegal. Prominent people like Mahan thought Germany could not be blockaded if its fleet was a little bit over half the size of the UK. There are books out there that correctly argued that all the rules of war would be abandoned in a war of national survival. So now we have the Kaiser and his senior advisers realizing the rules of warfare will be ignored. You have one butterfly on this where Germany stockpiles supplies, but they will only do this if the also understand it will be a long war.

You skip other logical decisions that are also huge butterflies. Since the rules of warfare will not be followed, Germany will mass produce chemical weapons before the war, and use them on Day 1. The big problem with U-boat for merchant warfare was they could not follow cruiser rules per prewar thinking. Germany likely builds huge numbers of them. Germany may consider biological warfare, assassination, and all the other dirty tricks of war as a part of their official war plan. The New war plan will resemble much more the Soviet post-WW2 war plans than the German War Plan of OTL. It is inevitable that parts of this thinking leaks out, and will change the thinking of the Entente, so their will be secondary butterflies.

And I can only image the SPD reaction when they learn that the German High command believes that the rules of war will be abandoned in any major war. The SPD might be demand that German make peace and a "League of Peace" be formed. Or it might demand that the German military budget be doubled. The change you propose is so radical, that is impossible to predict the reactions. For an average Reichstag member to even begin to understand that the intentional starvation of 100,000 of people, that bombing of cities would be ok, that all the rules of sea warfare would be ignored when inconvenient, that poison gas would be used; all this would be unimaginably horrible to them. Unimaginable is often an over used word, but I mean it literally here. Even if told in the most powerful and persuasive terms, many of them could not accept the reality.

Now I understand in hindsight, it is easy to see that the rules would ignored. There are books originally written in English, and other books written in German that clearly and largely accurately predict that the rules would be ignored unless convenient. It is clear from the colonial wars, that Europeans were capable of horrible war crimes. But for some reason, the strong conventional wisdom is they would never do it to white people in Europe.


2) You have them building up stockpiles, which means Germany is planning for a long war. The whole war plan was to avoid a long war, so it will be changed by this assumption alone. Second, it means war is not seen as quick campaign victory, but as a long war that will kill millions. This will change diplomacy, and likely prevent WW1.

You then have a lot of other stuff in later years, but this will all be butterflied away. It is difficult to overstate the impact of understanding that any major war will be long, and will be fought largely ignoring the inconvenient rules of war will have on the German government. It is not as big as the dawn of the nuclear age, but it is about as large a shift in military thinking as has ever been seen in peace time.
 
Yes, the Kaiser changing his policy and personality does make it where Germany can win WW1, but the butterflies mean that if there is a WW1, it will look nothing like OTL. Now to more specifics:

1) The England blockade was illegal. ... ... So now we have the Kaiser and his senior advisers realizing the rules of warfare will be ignored. You have one butterfly on this where Germany stockpiles supplies, but they will only do this if the also understand it will be a long war.

You skip other logical decisions that are also huge butterflies. Since the rules of warfare will not be followed, Germany will mass produce chemical weapons before the war, and use them on Day 1. ... .... . Germany may consider biological warfare, assassination, and all the other dirty tricks of war as a part of their official war plan. The New war plan will resemble much more the Soviet post-WW2 war plans than the German War Plan of OTL.
Expecting that the Allied side will ignore one or several rules of warfare does not neccessarily mean that the German side will ignore all the rules. Even if one side decides to ignore quite a number of the rules, that does not mean it will ignore all. As we all know, Germany committed murder by the millions during WW II, among other things by starving Soviet prisoners of war to death. This does not mean that Western Allied POWs were also starved. The realization that a wide blockade will be set up and that the blockade will not be confined to contraband just might result in the decisions you describe, or it might have the result of Germany not encouraging Austria to put an ultimatum to Serbia, or it might result in the kind of WWI I have described or it might result into something totally different. Alternate history is not a science.

Just one more small detail: It looks extremely unlikely to me that chemical weapons will be used on day one. As far as I know, chemical weapons are only more effective than explosives in static warfare, and day one, and several more days after that, will be characterised by a war of maneuvre.

And I can only image the SPD reaction when they learn that the German High command believes that the rules of war will be abandoned in any major war. The SPD might be demand that German make peace and a "League of Peace" be formed. Or it might demand that the German military budget be doubled. The change you propose is so radical, that is impossible to predict the reactions. For an average Reichstag member to even begin to understand that the intentional starvation of 100,000 of people, that bombing of cities would be ok, that all the rules of sea warfare would be ignored when inconvenient, that poison gas would be used; all this would be unimaginably horrible to them. Unimaginable is often an over used word, but I mean it literally here. Even if told in the most powerful and persuasive terms, many of them could not accept the reality.
This is quite emotional language for a highly hypothetical situation. First the members of the Reichstag will have to know that the Kaiser and the General Staff think that the next war might be a long one and that there will be a blockade not restricted to contraband - but there is no compelling reason that they will know. Then they have to draw the conclusion that other rules of warfare will be ignored too - for the reasons pointed out above, there is no compelling reason to draw this conclusion. As you point out, they might well react by having the military budget doubled. This strikes me as more likely than the other "pacifist" reaction you describe, given how most members of the SPD reacted historically.


2) You have them building up stockpiles, which means Germany is planning for a long war. The whole war plan was to avoid a long war, so it will be changed by this assumption alone. Second, it means war is not seen as quick campaign victory, but as a long war that will kill millions. This will change diplomacy, and likely prevent WW1.

You then have a lot of other stuff in later years, but this will all be butterflied away. It is difficult to overstate the impact of understanding that any major war will be long, and will be fought largely ignoring the inconvenient rules of war will have on the German government. It is not as big as the dawn of the nuclear age, but it is about as large a shift in military thinking as has ever been seen in peace time.
It is perfectly possible to want a short war, and to make preparations for a quick victory, while at the same time preparing for a longer war, just in case your first plan fails. Even the younger Moltke himself was extremely sceptical at times before WW I about the prospects for a quick victory. In my TL, the German leadership acts on this scepticism, which it did not in OTL.
 
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Germany and Japan have had an informal anti-Soviet alliance since 1925 and Germany has closely co-operated with Italy in the Spanish Civil War. From 1938 onwards the German military government tries to create a formal alliance between the three nations, while already seriously planning a war of aggression.

The official nature of this alliance can of course be only defensive, but the German plenipotentiaries do argue for territorial expansion in secret negotiations. Their line of argument is the following: Germany, Italy and Japan are the only nations whose industrial power is not supported by an appropriate territorial base in colonies. They just might improve this situation when acting singly, but success is only assured when they act united.

Germany could expand eastwards and regain the territories it has ceded to Poland [which has no alliance to France or Britain in this TL], but Japan and Italy would have no natural interest in supporting Germany here. Italy could expand at the expense of Greece or the Turkish empire [Croatia and Slvovenia are part of the Habsburg federation in this TL and therefore closely allied with Germany], but Germany or Japan would not profit from a defeat of these countries. Japan might attack China or the Philippines, but Italy and Germany have nothing to gain from a conflict with China or the USA. But all three countries could win large territories and concessions from a war with Britain and France. Germany alone outstrips the industrial capacity of the British Empire and Italy is on the way to becoming France's equal. After the experiences of the last war, financial support from the USA for France and Britain would be highly unlikely, and American military intervention an absurdity. Communication between the European partners of the alliance and Japan would be assured through the use of the Transsiberian railway, since the Soviet Union needed German and Japanese consumer and especially capital goods.

While the German arguments sound highly convincing to their Italian and Japanese partners, they do not want to bind themselves irrevocably to Germany, so no formal alliance is concluded, much less is any definitive plan for a joint war of conquest worked out.

There are however definitive agreements on collaboration in armament production. Germany and Italy profit from Japanese experience with carrier construction and landing craft. Germany contributes knowledge on face-hardened armour and other metallurgic technology, operational planning in armoured warfare, in-line aero engines airborne troops and Radar. Italy provides knowledge on aerial torpedoes, and the use of divers and light attack craft in naval warfare.

From 1938 Germany also starts secretly breaking the armament reduction treaty of 1934 by producing heavy bombers and building more tanks than the treaty allows.
 
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