The Election That Wasn't

I cannot imagine for one second that Brown would suddenly change tack and back PR. And if by some minor miracle that *did* happen, and by another miracle most of the PLP supported it, I cannot imagine for one second that the Lib Dems wouldn't vote for it anyway, meaning it would pass.

But it'll never get there.

I've never seen Brown as a particularly 'democratic' type of guy and neither the Labour Party nor the Conservative Party are going to vote for their own dismantling.
Brown promised AV without a referendum and a referendum on STV. That is not a miracle, that is what happened. Indeed, had the Lib Dems gone for a deal with Labour and the nationalists, we would be in a position now where AV would be in place for the next election and a referendum on STV would be on the cards.
 
My view is (and this is purely personal - I don't particularly like Brown - a flawed - very flawed - genius) is that Brown only offered AV and STV in 2010 because he wanted to stay in power.

Back in this ATL's 2007, from what the OP has in the timeline, Brown wants to go it alone. He'll do that to the bitter end, because his majority is more than just 4. As already mentioend, it's probably 14 at the moment in actuality.

Come the next election (assuming it will be 2012) Brown will be toast, blamed for everything by everyone. The Labour party won't be able to form anything as the Conservatives will likely win an outright majority, and if Labour manage a few more car crashes, they could well see themselves returning only 1997 Conservative level of MPs (circa 170).

I never viewed Labour's offer of AV or STV or any other form of election reform as anything more than opportunistic. They had thirteen years, and majorities of 179, 166 and 66 to push reform through and they didn't.

That's not to say the Conservatives wouldn't introduce AV either. They won't. But at least they tell you straight they don't want anything other than FPTP.
 
That was with Blair as Prime Minister, not Brown. Also, bear in mind that the Welsh and London Assemblies and Scottish Parliament were founded with a form of a fairer voting system so whilst its true to say nothing was done in the Commons, there was action on a fairer voting system.

As it is, Brown was a supporter of a fairer voting system, alongside fundamental reform of the Lords(which is a totem of the Labour left) and as such I disagree with your reasoning. He had three years in ten Downing Street, not thirteen quite a bit of which wasn't crash related was to do with various planned reforms. Had he concentrated on voting reform and reform of the Lords during the crash he would have been ripped to shreds more than happened by the Tories. Could you picture it? The headlines would be "Unelected Prime Minister alters voting system". It would have been suicide.

Fair enough you don't like him, but I question anyone doubting his commitment to proper reform. Whether you like the reform is a different matter....
 
Very interesting to see Major standing, I've been reading a bit about him today actually. It'll certainly make the whole contest a lot closer, but given the way things are going, is there anyone the Tories can nominate in 2008 who can't win?
 
I've always had a soft spot for Major;

Likewise, but I'm not sure he'll win.

Pros - He was known as 'Honest John'
- It's been a while since 1997
- Most recognised him as a good prime minister but hated his party

Cons - Ken is a formidable opponent
- A lot of people will simply associate Major with 'The 1990's Tories'

I'd predict a very tight, very close race.......
 
The second hurdle was Alistair’s first Budget. As if being only the second Chancellor in ten years and having to produce a Budget being watched by his predessecor wasn’t bad enough,

Do keep going. Very interesting.
I also have a soft spot for Darling. Placed in an impossible position. Gordon still driving from both the rear and the front of the car, Darling basically some sort of passenger in the front seat, heading for disaster......
 
So was there a referendum on Lisbon or not? Or will that be explained in the next update?

Even so it seems the Labour party might wish they didn't call that election after all.
 
And a failed Lisbon, needless to say, has huge consequences across Europe. I wonder also, will butterflies start to impact upon the US Presidential race?

I agree about Europe but Britain might be more affected since while the public may be happy about no Lisbon the political fallout may be huge especially when Greece starts to fall apart. Lisbon failing is what I think will happen as David Miliband sounds like he is slightly bitter about the whole thing.
 
Seems a bit risky to call a motion of confidence on Lisbon. All that needs to happen is that the Opposition is united and 5 Labour MPs dissent.

Maybe Brown should have just let Lisbon remain unsigned.
 
Given the short length of time that has past since the recent election, it is not impossible that the Queen will instead ask Opposition Leader David Cameron to form a government if she believes that an alternative government can be formed in the current House of Commons.

I assume this is just talk. There is no way the Conservatives could form a government with the HoC in the present state it is in. Conservative-led minority government could be brought down at any time by the Labour party. Hell, even if EVERY other non-Labour MP supported the Conservatives, they'd still lose every vote in the house.
 
Very, very interesting. Utter horror at the idea of a Lisbon referendum from Labour, of course. Will the threat of losing office persuade some backbenchers to vote with the Government? I'm not so sure. Plenty of backbenchers hated Brown after his antics in the past decade, and, furthermore knew that even if the Tories won the election by a landslide, they'd retain their rock solid seats. For some, such as Frank Field, there doesn't seem to me to be any real advantage to be gained in supporting the Government on this- Field's career is equally dead whether it's Brown or the Tories in power.
 
Very, very interesting. Utter horror at the idea of a Lisbon referendum from Labour, of course. Will the threat of losing office persuade some backbenchers to vote with the Government? I'm not so sure. Plenty of backbenchers hated Brown after his antics in the past decade, and, furthermore knew that even if the Tories won the election by a landslide, they'd retain their rock solid seats. For some, such as Frank Field, there doesn't seem to me to be any real advantage to be gained in supporting the Government on this- Field's career is equally dead whether it's Brown or the Tories in power.

Yes I think that Brown once what he is doing actually sets into him will try to stop the motion or just bang his head on the table and say 'Stupid' repeatedly to himself.
 
Wait so Lisbon passes?:(

'Fraid so. The motion that the House just (barely) passed is both a confidence motion and a motion that repeals the earlier Tory amendment requiring a referendum; it's the same tactic John Major used during Maastricht to ensure the passage of the Treaty. The real impact of these events will be to jangle the nerves of both Cabinet and PLP figures even more, and sour Brown's relationship with his colleagues.
 
'Fraid so. The motion that the House just (barely) passed is both a confidence motion and a motion that repeals the earlier Tory amendment requiring a referendum; it's the same tactic John Major used during Maastricht to ensure the passage of the Treaty. The real impact of these events will be to jangle the nerves of both Cabinet and PLP figures even more, and sour Brown's relationship with his colleagues.

I can see massive public anger at Brown for this. The public didn't like Lisbon IOTL and probably ITTL and now it looks like Brown is going to see even smaller public support along now that he has now looked like he knows the public doesn't like the EU but doesn't care.
 
I can see massive public anger at Brown for this. The public didn't like Lisbon IOTL and probably ITTL and now it looks like Brown is going to see even smaller public support along now that he has now looked like he knows the public doesn't like the EU but doesn't care.

Completly agree. Labour would've lost the referendum by a country mile, and by doing this they are effectively saying that the will of the British people doesn't count.

They will lose 5% of polling straight away (and that loss will be nearly permanent) from their actions.
 
Once the Henley and Crewe and Newtich seats go to the Tories which will half Brown's majority I can see a new motion of no confidence which Brown might have less luck with.

Also with Cameron probably being forced to be more Eurosceptic by the right I think he might keep Lisbon referendum in the manifesto.
 
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