The Egyptian invasion of... Cyprus in 1978

What the hell they've gone and done POD of the day... Egypt invades Cyprus in 1978.

Well if you want to get technical Egypt DID invade Cyprus in 1978 when it landed commandos from Unit 777 in Larnaca airport, ostensibly to help out with a hostage situation involving Egyptian citizens. Then said commandos proceeded to attack by their own towards the hostages, the Cypriot warnings to stop resulted to being fired upon by the Egyptians, at which point a general firefight ensued between the raiders and the Cypriot National Guard, leaving 18 Egyptians dead, about as many wounded and the C-130 carrying them destroyed by recoilless rifle fire. Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Cyprus till Sadat who had ordered the raid died and that was the end of it.

So say Sadat, already enraged (the original terrorist attack involved killing a personal friend of his) decides he can't afford looking weak to Cyprus of all people and reacts to the defeat of Unit 777, by ordering air raids and airborne troops to take Larnaca airport. A, necessarily small, landing force follows suit. It doesn't work out very well. The Cypriots do get surprised, but fight back (after all an assault on Larnaca and its airport would be anticipated and planned for, no matter that the people doing the assault are wearing Egyptian instead of Turkish uniforms), the Egyptians are not prepared for what amounts an overseas expedition on limited notice, while Greece intervenes on the Cypriot side, the Karamanlis government can hardly afford politically to let Cyprus on its own for a second time in four years if it wants to survive, thus sends in air strikes, submarines and limited numbers of troops in support.

The whole mess is over in less than a week with a cease fire being brokered and the surviving Egyptian force returning to Egypt. The political ramifications within both the countries directly involved and in Turkey and Israel will probably last way longer...

Thoughts?
 
A somewhat unlike POD, but a nice idea.
So:

  • Cyprus gets close to Israel to make sure the Egyptians are checked
  • Drags Greece towards Israel, too (even Papandreou won't change that, Cyprus is more important)
  • The US gets closer to Cyprus
  • Cyprus applies for NATO membership
  • Turkey withdraws from the island, or is screwed
  • Papandreou's "patriotic"agenta is less anti-american, more anti-turkish and his foreign policy has less connections with the Soviet block, maybe even closer to Yugoslavia.
 
Don’t forget the British bases in Cyprus they wouldn’t be very happy with a full on invasion either.

Probably not but I don't see them getting actively involved either. As long as the British bases are left alone which they most probably are they have little reason too. Of course technically Egypt is attacking a member of the commonwealth...
 
A somewhat unlike POD, but a nice idea.
So:

  • Cyprus gets close to Israel to make sure the Egyptians are checked
  • Drags Greece towards Israel, too (even Papandreou won't change that, Cyprus is more important)
  • The US gets closer to Cyprus
  • Cyprus applies for NATO membership
  • Turkey withdraws from the island, or is screwed
  • Papandreou's "patriotic"agenta is less anti-american, more anti-turkish and his foreign policy has less connections with the Soviet block, maybe even closer to Yugoslavia.

Dunno about the Turkey withdraws from the island part. On the other hand this has happened while the US arms embargo on Turkey is still in place, the vote in Congress that lifted it was in December 10 and passed by a mere three votes, I can see two votes getting swayed the other way after a second attack and the embargo staying in place which causes all shorts of further trouble in US-Turkish relations particularly if its still in place when the 1980 coup takes place, with the coup itself maybe happening earlier.

I quite agree on Greece and Cyprus getting closer to Israel. The Egyptian attack comes on top of Quaddaffi providing material support to Turkey in 1974 or his less well known claims on Crete, nevermind the expulsion of the Alexandria Greeks in the 1960s. To the average Greek in the street it will be looking as a pattern of clear Arab hostility to Greece. Israel gets offcially recognised in short order and also public perceptions shift towards it. Which is going to be rather bad news for the PLO come the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, with the Greek ships that evacuated it failing to materialize.

On the other side I can see Egypt and the Arab world getting closer to Turkey after the mess.

Also there is some significant effect in the relation between Athens and Nicosia I think. The democracy has demonstrated that yes it means it, about fighting for Cyprus and that 1974 was an aberration due to the junta...
 
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