The Effects Of Reagan's Assassination

What if Ronald Reagan had indeed been assassinated in 1981?
What would the effects have been on the economy, politics, elections, Cold war, and situation for the United States and world following this up to our present day, etc? How would things have run under a Bush administration 8 years earlier? Basically, how would things have been different?
 
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Vice President Bush probably would have elected in a landslide in 1984, a la Johnson after Kennedy. Whether he would have been reelected in 1988 is another matter, especially if the Iran-Contra scandal had played out as it did in OTL.

Otherwise, I think Bush would have had much the same foreign policy as Reagan when it came to the Russians.
 

FDW

Banned
Yeah, bush wouldn'tbe able to run in 88', from what I see of him, he's not quite as charismatic as Reagan was, and you have to remember, In this situation, unlike Johnson, Bush probably wouldn't be able to take advantage of the Sympathy card to the same extent, especially if the economy remains like it was, If Papa Bush runs in 84' I would assume that the race would be fairly competitive unlike OTL.
 
The economy was already set to recover in the 1980's (Paul Volcker, natural market patterns that were gonna go on, etc.), so Bush will likely have the same economic situation Reagan had, minus major deficits if he avoids Reagan's major defense spending. What he'll do with it and how it will exactly look under Bush, I don't know (and which is why I brought it up in the OP), but I do stand by the aforementioned. The race could be competitive (likely far more than 1984), but I do think Bush could win rather handily. But, I could be wrong.
 
Daddy Bush would have used at least different language in terms of the Cold War.

There is something else. As I understand it Reagan gave effective support to Thatcher in the Falkands War. I wonder if Daddy Bush might have been more event handed seeing US interests in Latin America.
 
I suppose Bush goes throught with the budget cuts Reagan was proposing at this time, but what about the tax cuts? He'd have the political capital to do them, and they were done in OTL (though OT's Reagan had political capital through merely surviving the attmept on his life), and he has his old friend Jim Baker as holdover chief of staff--but does Bush have the gumption to do the taxcutting?

I think yes--I also think the inevitable major tax raises which take place to address the budget crisis will be much more high profile than the payroll tax rises & eradication of corporate tax loopholes Reagan pushed through in '82, '83.

Forget about how effective Volcker was in slaying the inflation dragon--the '82 recession was vicious, and if Bush doesn't show as much optimism as the Gipper did, if he doesn't manage the competing personalities in economic policy as adroitly as Reagan and the 'troika' did in OTL, his re-election is going to be much closer. He might just end up scraping by, like Dubya did in 2004.

Now, the one bright side for a Bush administration at this time is the end of the conflict within the national security team. I can see him getting rid of both Haig and Weinberger, and choosing more team-spirited replacements. Having Scowcroftians at both Defence and State, and no Jean Kilpatrick at the UN wold seem to nip the neoconservative movement in the bud; however, Rumsfeld and Cheney in OTL have demonstrated that lifelong Republican gentlemen can be every bit as doctrinaire as ex-Trots and lapsed Democrats, so who knows what foreign policy cadre develops under Bush in the eighties.

An Iran-Contra scandal under a Bush who won re-election with 51% of the popular vote is very interesting.
 
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Who does George H.W. Bush pick for his Vice President, since this was still 1981, many in the GOP Leadership felt that he was relly an olive branch to the moderate wing of the Party. He's got the foriegn policy expierence covered, so he needs a Conservative Governor in my opinion to compliment the ticket but he also needs to hold on to the White Working Class "Reagan Demorats" as well...Governor Frank D. White of Arkansas, former Governor Otis R. Bowen of Indiana, Governor Big Jim Thompson of Illinois, Dick Thornburgh of Pennsylvania, and Former Senator James L. Buckley of New York would all be strong choies.

Also might Hart actually be able to win the 1984 Democratic Primary Race in this scenario?
 
I realize we know that IOTL Bush knew all about Iran Contra, but would he have chosen to carry it out of he was pres.?

I also believe he would've negotiated with Gorbachev immediately after his re election in 1984. He wasn't as trapped by the Cold War mentality as Reagan.
 
Actually Reagan waited almost a full year. He was actually convinced by his wife Nancy. And she only trusted Gorbachev because her astrologer told her to.

I should add that Bush probably would've sought an agreement even before Gorbachev's head of the CP. IOTL the Soviets wanted one way back in 81.
 
AmIndHistoryAuthor, a few factual corrections.

1) Gorbachev didn't take power until March 1985.

2) Given that fact to complain Reagan didn't negotiate with Gorbachev in 1984 is invalid, tantamount to complaining someone didn't negotiate with Obama in early 2008 when he wasn't president of the US or even the Democratic nominee.

3) The suggestion that astrology prevented negotiations with Gorbachev until 1985, and not Gorbachev's lower rank until that year, is a bad joke at best.

4) During Reagan's first term the various Soviet leaders spend more than half the time in hospital beds, and for the remainder were either in dubious health or replacing the previous administration with their own people, which rendered negotiations almost impossible.

Preliminary talks with Andropov did go well and had he remained in health another 12-18 months then treaties negotiated with Gorbachev would likely have have taken place years sooner. Alas, he did not keep his health but neither that nor the Soviet decision to replace him with the equal failing Chernenko is the fault of anyone in the US government.
 
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