The Economy of Tsarist Russia

I´m also reading a book that among others things deals with the inter-war economy of the USSR and it was an unmitigated disaster compared to the Empire´s fast growing pre-war economy. Everything went down the crapper and stayed there for a loooong time; arms production, heavy and light industry and the argriculture, too. And the sole reason for this was ... communism! Utter mismanagement everwhere.

NO! Communism threw them back by at least two decades.

The Soviets had to clean up after a world war, a brutal civil war, leading into a giant depression, not to mention massive loss of territory and markets, plus the loss of use of French capital.
 
-Literacy. Say what you will about the Communists, but man, they were good at educating the masses. Would a Tsarist Russia do as well? I'm inclined to say based on OTL, probably not.

I don't agree with this. Soviet literacy was higher because it was later in time.

I have to resort to an Ottoman example, but the Ottomans wer progressing from an extremely low baseline, like 1%, and got up to around 10-15% in 50 years. The Republic in a similar period raised it to 80-90%, but I don't see why the empire wouldn't have performed similarly. You have to produce a corps of literates to be teachers, etc.

In the Ottoman case, you had the alphabet problem, but that wasn't an issue in Russia.
 

Markus

Banned
While a big drop, foreign trade dropped for everyone after WW1, if not as precipitously.

Yes, but nobody else needed hard currency that much. Everybody else could get credit or attract foreign investors.

About the grain, the gross value of agricultural porduction was the same in 1913 and in 1927. I don´t know if that is adjusted for inflation, but the total grain production was still a bit lower in 1927 -4,7 instead of 5 billion Pud. However the amount of grain that made it on the market was 50% lower. Industrial products were artificially overpriced, so farmers prefered to use grain for a more lucrative purpose- to make vodka. Consumption increased from 0,6 bottels in 1922 to 4,3 in 1927. In 1931 600,000 tons(!) of grain were going into the legal vodka production alone. Farmers made their vodka illegally.


@Abdul Hadi Pasha:

Agreed, but without the commies there will be no civil war and no commies to hinder the regeneration of the economy.
 
Yes, but nobody else needed hard currency that much. Everybody else could get credit or attract foreign investors.

About the grain, the gross value of agricultural porduction was the same in 1913 and in 1927. I don´t know if that is adjusted for inflation, but the total grain production was still a bit lower in 1927 -4,7 instead of 5 billion Pud. However the amount of grain that made it on the market was 50% lower. Industrial products were artificially overpriced, so farmers prefered to use grain for a more lucrative purpose- to make vodka. Consumption increased from 0,6 bottels in 1922 to 4,3 in 1927. In 1931 600,000 tons(!) of grain were going into the legal vodka production alone. Farmers made their vodka illegally.

The Tsarist regime generated the largest share of its revenues from vodka duties. Most likely illegal production and consumption was more carefully concealed in the Tsarist period since the government much more strictly policed it.
 

Markus

Banned
The Tsarist regime generated the largest share of its revenues from vodka duties. Most likely illegal production and consumption was more carefully concealed in the Tsarist period since the government much more strictly policed it.

The commies were no different in this regard. Except under them alcohol related problems increased a lot, as they privately admitted themselves.
 
Several comments in no particular order:
1. Literacy (lack of it) had been seen as huge problem long pre-WWI and government developed detailed program to implement compulsory schooling for youths by 1920 and roll out massive network of adult education centers. Sounds familiar? Well, it should have, because Commies used it almost to a T under nickname "LikBez" (Liquidation of Illiteracy). For sure, they declared it their own (on the side note, a lot of early Commie steps was just implementation of plans drawn by technocrats in Czarist Russia). On a flip side, there's no guarantee that Russian Empire will go ahead with this plan. They wrote a lot of good plans they did not implement.
2. It is kinda sorta tough to compare pace of development in Empire and USSR, as a lot of Soviet production was not market-driven (arms, heavy mining and industrial equipment for arms production, that sort of things). Pre-war Empire went along classic industrialization road (from textiles and foodstuffs to heavy industry), well beaten by England, France and Germany before it. USSR implemented forced industrialization with unimaginably heavy tilt toward heavy iindustry (pun intended).
3. Industrialized Russia will lack entry-level managers most severely. Would you look at population dynamics, you would find that Russia lost a lot of high-level achievers (industry captains, academics, university professors) to emigration, but gained a lot of entry-level managers by lifting ethnicity-based restrictions (Pale, percentages in universities and such). Empire would keep economic "colonels", "generals" and "marshals" IATL but will lack "leutenants".
4. Comparison between Russia, Argentina and Canada is pretty interesting. One should keep in mind that Argentina and Canada were viewed as equals in the beginning of the 20th century, so Russia can really follow one of those 2 routes...
 
I don't agree with this. Soviet literacy was higher because it was later in time.

I have to resort to an Ottoman example, but the Ottomans wer progressing from an extremely low baseline, like 1%, and got up to around 10-15% in 50 years. The Republic in a similar period raised it to 80-90%, but I don't see why the empire wouldn't have performed similarly.

It could have; but would the will have been there? Most notably, I doubt the Russian Empire would have cared as much about the literacy rates of women.
 
Dunno if this helps but i was looking up an article reviewing a book called 'Petroleum in the Soviet Union: An appraisal of a Recent German Study' by S.R. Abrahamson. its in Economic Geography Vol 29 No 3 (July 1953) pages 267-276 and it's on JSTOR.

Anyway page 269 states that geological exploration was being carried out in Imperial Russia before WW1 but intensified in 1927 under the 1st 5 year plan. The Geological Commitee had existed since 1882 but only 70-80 geologists were on the strength. In 1946 it became the Ministry of Geology and by 1947 75% of the USSR had been geologically explored.

It strikes me that if we looked at the dates, locations and types of discoveries of resources after 1927 that might indicate how long after the start of serious efforts to survey the country we could expect such discoveries to be made from whichever notional start date we pick. So for instance if some bludy great deposit of coal was discovered on Omsk in 1937 in OTL and the POD for intensified exploration is 1914 that would seem to indicate that the same resource might be discovered in 1924 TTL.

Just a thought.
 

Stalker

Banned
The Tsarist regime generated the largest share of its revenues from vodka duties. Most likely illegal production and consumption was more carefully concealed in the Tsarist period since the government much more strictly policed it.
Precisely that. State monopoly of vodka production had its extensive periods in Russia but even when it was abolished, the state still had strong fiscal control over the product in urban areas. In rural areas, moonshine production was out of any control however.:rolleyes:
 

Stalker

Banned
Actually, the whole thread reminds me of old-kind times in the Russian AH-Board where we were breaking spears arguing if surviving Czarist Russia could become a great industrial power or not. "Commies" said that only Stalin was able to do that, the Right-wingers insisted that Michael II could have done no worse.
I am just curious what point of view is winning here.:D
 
I am just curious what point of view is winning here.:D
Yeah, great fight between anti-communist and Russophobic POV is coming. Taking into account that for many Russophobia nad Anti-Communism are two shades of the same color, it could be pretty interesting. A lot of people would have to pick what part of their views they value more :)
 
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