Unfortunately Andronikos III died as IOTL. Poor ERE can't catch a break...
I'm short of inclined to believe Andronikos living to 80 would be a different TL. Not an uninteresting one if you play with "what is the latest POD to save the empire"
So if Kantakouzenos controls the army, to who will Anne of Savoy and Alexios Apokaukos turn to in order to obtain an army? The Serbs, or the Ottomans? I hope ITTL the Ottomans won't expand in Europe.
He controls an army. That's different from the entire army.
Isnt Kantakouzenos in a bit of disadvantage too? Since Byzantium's pronoia system relies on the nobility, the same ones that are now being forced to pay their taxes and do their duties (Oh the horror). Which means that Kantakouzenos while theoretically able to muster huge resources and manpower will be hamstrung by the same nobles? The nobility might even rally to Anne instead, bringing the pronoia soldiers with them.
That depends on the strength of the ruler and his administrative machine. For example Ottoman armies depended on Timariote cavalry during the entire period of conquest and Timars were little to no different from pronoia, often enough in the Balkans the former pronoia men turned into timariotes. Did not exactly hinder it from reaching Vienna...
Honestly imo other than the Laskaris restoration the only hope ERE has is Kantakouzenos decisively destroyed Anna and take the crown for himself but that’s a long shot
Ah a follower of David Nicol I see. Kantakouzenos was a capable man. How well he would had really done had he acted decisively and seized the throne in 1341... is anouther question. The man was good but it seems he often hesitated from decisive action. Not an Alexios Komnenos in this...
Genuinely the Lascarids are probably the most palatable option. A large, veteran army and fleet with a strong reputation among the lower classes. That said, the Lascarids won't be likely to leave once they are allowed in. Though they're more likely to be willing to negotiate some kind of power sharing agreement. That certainly has long precedent in the Roman system. It's maybe not a guarantee of stability for what would certainly be the junior partner, but that's a problem one has to be alive in order to address.
A Lascarid attempt at Constantinople likely sees both Stefan Dusan and the Angevins joining the fray. For that matter what Venice and Genoa would be doing is also a good question. Dealing with a strongly centralized state in Sicily and Greece is one thing. Said state swallowing the entire Byzantine empire and reforming it to their image is likely rather less palpable. So Theodore would be well advised to do whatever he likely does... carefully.
The only problem I see for the ere is the capital problem, the good news is that Constantinople isn't the bureaucratic monster that it was before the fourth crusade,but it is still a huge ass city And I don't see how it won't end badly.
Maybe it become an semi autonomous patriarch fief .
Maybe it will become like Naples after the riunification,where most jobs collapsed and the most educated moved ,others got to become massive bandits problem.
Fortunately geography Constantinople is not in the middle but on the outskirt of the ere.
It would probably collapse a bit of rule of law
around thrace and helping along or ruining the financial state of nearby Turkic beys.
"Bureaucratic monster" is one way to look at Constantinople. Great revenue making machine is another way to look at it. In 1348 the custom duties alone of Galata were 200,000 hyperpyra and Constantinople another 30,000. That's about 160,000 ducats a year... at a time Constantinople was a ghost of her former self and in the middle of a plague epidemic...
We are in 1341. I suppose that soon Robert will begin again negotiations for a betrothal: Alexandros is 15 and Maria 12. Fostering Maria in Syracuse and an official betrothal could be in the calendar.
Maria since 1332 is betrothed to Louis of Hungary. As long is Charles is alive and well there is no reason to believe the marriage will not happen. Agnes of Perigord trying to abduct Maria with Charles being Charles III king of Naples would be... shall we say a misjudged idea? Of course we have the third daughter, born in 1330 TTL who needs a name. Lets call her Helene like Charles half-sister. After all her birth is well before Robert would behead her namesake for daring to fall in love and marry Andrea Thopia.
I wonder if Anna of Savoy and Kantzakouzenos will send betrothal offers of their own. Maria-Irene Palaiologina is of the right age after all. Theodora Kantakouzene is younger but also a potential bride.
Presumidly Eirene who married Francesco Gatillusio. Maria is already tsarina of Bulgaria. On Kantakouzenos side you have Theodora and Helen, olthough John likely intends Helen for John V.
However, Alexandros and Palaiologina are way too close related for the orthodox tradition, so it would be quite problematic.
Adrienne would be Andronikos aunt. Which makes his daughters 5th degree relatives. Allowed by Roman law, the limit is in the 4th degree, not quite liked by the church which wants limit at the 7th degree. An interesting conundrum for John XIV.
Having said that, an Angevin marriage seems to offer many more political advantages over a Kantakouzenos marriage. First and foremose, Theodore doesn't have to go against his word with Robert. Moreover, the angevin marriage secures peace in Italy, while on the other side it will engulf the Catepanate in a war. Certainly, Charle's succession will be a clusterfuck, but Theodore cannot know the potential fate of Andrew.
But what Charles thinks of a Lascarid marriage? After all his wife also happens to be half-sister to Catherine of Courtenay (and Philip VI of France) and Walter VI of Brienne who has reason to dislike Theodore for grabbing his Greek lands also happens to be Charles vicar and be married to Charles first cousin. And they thought the Hapburgs were bad by the way...
One thing is certain: if Anna or Ioannis think of allying with the Aydinids - who are currently a major problem for the Catepanate, it won't go well with Theodore.
Kantakouzenos seems potentially more likely to do so than Anna given the close relations he already has with Umur.
Yeah, Andronikos III dying as per otl was expected, and it does mean the Lascarids are taking it all then... Anatolia sounds like its going be the battlegrounds when things go beyond 1400 ittl.
Barlaam calling Theodore his serenity is defo laying it thick lmao, and I do think that more and more people would be thinking that the Lascarids are the future of the ERE as time goes on (and as actions like Joanna's terrible reign and Louis of Hungary comes into Naples the Lascarids may very well be the main power in the region too), especially as the ERE falls into civil war and movements from Serbia or from various sultanates (I'd assume that Kantakozenos would do similar things as per otl).
But Barlaam has undeniable qualities. Hey the university of Syracuse is an important development! I short of wonder why people didn't really care about its establishment.
The Lascarids would probably have moved up Thessaly and secured the region, and would be fighting against the Serbians (and perhaps the Hungarians) already. If they win those engagements they immediately become the strongest element in ERE politics. The common folk, knowing of their victories and the power they would wield there would definitely flock to them and take over the 'common folk' element of the civil war, while Anna of Savoy and co move to work with the aristocracy. I could very well see Kantakozenos be sidelined in the civil war if things go well for them.
Invading Byzantine Thessaly is tantamount to going to war with the empire. Which doesn't mean Theodore might not do.
And frankly, moving the capital after staying in Constantinople for so long is a good idea. At this point the City has been the capital for over a thousand years. It has been the capital longer than Rome at this point, and changing the capital to Syracuse may be part of the rebirth and return of the Roman Empire in terms of power and influence.
Should I mention me the writer being Greek? So any interest in any Roman imperial rebirths being if we are talking about the Greek state of the Middle Ages?
Yea if they regain the Asian minor territories from the Turks , that's a big if ,if they don't regain those territories Constantinople become a port/fortress city not the capital.
The problem that I see is that the reconquista would be an ideal scenario , because they will have to stay focused on only that front that I don't see happening with sicily and the balkans fronts.
Plus if they regain the crown they would have to reform the state in their manner ,other obstacles.
In conclusion I don't see them regain Asia minor other the coastal regions.
The Ottomans just took the last imperial holdings in Anatolia. Perhaps talk of a reconquista is a little immature at the moment?
I think any talk about an orthodox Vatican is moot. The institutions of the ERE have developed for centuries and the concept of an ecclesiastical state is quite alien to both the elite and the general population. Any Byzantine monarch would first cut off his right arm before allowing the Patriarch temporal authority over Constantinople.
A cynic would claim that part of the reasons of the schism was a patriarch hoping to follow in the popes example. And that the church under the Ottomans had way more influence than any emperor ever let it have. Which was one of the reasons Gennadios became treasonous scum.
At the same time, the communes of Val di Mazara have the very successful paradigm of the communes in Val Demone and Val di Noto. Their eastern countrymen are not only prospering but are dominating the Parliament and have become the most important political stakeholder in the Despotate, after the monarch himself.
So, if there will be a war with the Angevins, I expect the communes to rise up with the old cry "Morte ai Francesi". Only this time, it will have a very distinct class element.
They have also experienced a decade of Lascarid armies giving them the Asia Minor/Balkans razzia treatment which is one of the reasons the place is a mess. Now even that had a class element, the despotate raids would be primarily targeting baronial mansions not peasant huts. Of course if East Sicilian raiders burned down your wheat crop because "sorry mate it's your king and barons who invaded us" that's small consolation.
Probably it would be a unofficial situation , where the emperor move court but the patriarch remains in Constantinople and does not have official Powers but a Hella soft power .
Plus I don't see the patriarch in general moving to Sicily, so I don't see the situation not deteriorating where the patriarch try to push buttons to see where are the limits of his influence.
The best analogy would be the situations that the emperors had with the others patriarchs before the Arab invasions only less about early heresies and more about sacrilegious behaviour social stuff.
Antioch and Alexandria were increasingly getting less influence to the gain of Constantinople and a main reason was where the capital was...
