The eagle's left head

[ZakiBadawi]

Very nice Timeline. the one thing that scare me for the future is that the Black death is less than a decade away at this point, and the Lascarid holdings are right in the middle of the propagation paths of OTL. They would be among the first to be hit by the disease. I wonder what the Lascarids could potentially do to minimise the damage here.

In fact, the increased prosperity and urbanisation of their realm means more trade and bigger cities and might backfire and make the plague even more deadly in their territory than OTL.

 

[galileo-034]

Very nice Timeline. the one thing that scare me for the future is that the Black death is less than a decade away at this point, and the Lascarid holdings are right in the middle of the propagation paths of OTL. They would be among the first to be hit by the disease. I wonder what the Lascarids could potentially do to minimise the damage here.

In fact, the increased prosperity and urbanisation of their realm means more trade and bigger cities and might backfire and male the plague even more deadly in their territory than OTL.

And centralized power structures mean faster and more coherent response to the crisis, at a larger and more comprehensive scale.
Plus, between their position at the crossroads of ancient Greek and Arabic medical cultures, and their hosting of significant communities of Jewish expellees, they are susceptible to a more effective and rational response than elsewhere in Europe at the time.

 

[ZakiBadawi]

And centralized power structures mean faster and more coherent response to the crisis, at a larger and more comprehensive scale.
Plus, between their position at the crossroads of ancient Greek and Arabic medical cultures, and their hosting of significant communities of Jewish expellees, they are susceptible to a more effective and rational response than elsewhere in Europe at the time.

True enough, but then again the Middle-East also suffered a lot from the plague so i don’t really know what more can be done other than quarantine.

Also you brought up the jewish community in Messina. The Black death drove a lot of christian toward zealotry to explain the catastrophe and a lot of jewish communities were blamed for the plague. Messina was the the first major outbreak of the plague in Italy, i could absolutely see some citizen explaining the plague has divine punishment for opening the doors to the jews or something like that.

 

[Lascaris]

True enough, but then again the Middle-East also suffered a lot from the plague so i don’t really know what more can be done other than quarantine.

Also you brought up the jewish community in Messina. The Black death drove a lot of christian toward zealotry to explain the catastrophe and a lot of jewish communities were blamed for the plague. Messina was the the first major outbreak of the plague in Italy, i could absolutely see some citizen explaining the plague has divine punishment for opening the doors to the jews or something like that.

You can always blame these Greek schismatics... after all the plague has come from Constantinople has it not? Obviously their fault!

 

[Quinkana]

You can always blame these Greek schismatics... after all the plague has come from Constantinople has it not? Obviously their fault!

Tbf I wouldn’t be surprised if the Neapolitan nobles blame the Greeks for working with the devil and the Black Plague is the price.

 

[galileo-034]

True enough, but then again the Middle-East also suffered a lot from the plague so i don’t really know what more can be done other than quarantine.

Not particularly known for centralized state apparatus and stability. It's much easier for the Despotate, also due to its particular geography, to control movements and impose quarantines than it would be in the middle east between semi nomadic tribes and the myriad of emirs, beys and sultans fighting one another.

 

[X Oristos]

You didn't much get him invading in OTL either...

That's true! But even the small gains post-Syrgiannes betrayal - Ohrid, Prilep and Strumica, are not in serbian hands now. The first line of defence is intact. Without even these conquests, it would be a bit more difficult to firmly control his land-hungry nobles. I think it might have been plausible that the limited 1334 conquests were enough to satisfy his nobles for some time til the byzantine civil war.

Otherwise, he has limited options for exapnsion. Bosnia is the most plausible avenue, but there are political problems there - it would be tougher to oust the local lords there and give the land to his own. It seems that during the wars with Bosnia, it was mostly a matter of having the local lords swear fealty to a Serbian King, rather than replacing the local elite. Moreover, if he is more expansive in Bosnia, there are more chances for more clashes with Hungary and Louis' Hungary was a major power.

Overall, I think it might be plausible that Dusan's position is a bit weaker than in OTL.

On their own the Venetian holdings in Greece would be pretty much exposed the Lascaris attack. Of course they are not on their own, ultimately the Venetian navy is there both to support them and to threaten Sicily and Calabria in case of war.

If - and it is a big if- we have a broad war with Genoa and the Despotate against Venice and potentially Aragon, then all actors other than the Aragonese would have to fight in multiple theaters.

- The Genoese would clash with the Aragonese in Sardinia.
- The Despotate would have to protect their lines of communication across the Ionian Sea.
- The Venetians would have to protect their lines of communication with Messenia and the Aegean. Monemvasia right to the north of a cape notorious for its storms is a perfect corsair base. The same goes to the Ionian Islands and Navarino. For example, oared ships used to closely hug the coast around Leukas - even more than their usual inshore sailing.
- The Despotate has to protect its Aegean Islands, especially the money-making Chios and the Cyclades - I still remember the mention that the Venetians have long memories.
- Venice has to protect Euboea and Crete.
- Both Venice and Genoa will clash over the Straits and access to the Black Sea - their major clash of interest.

However, there are a few major differences to the OTL naval strategy: Venice cannot hope to force the Straits of Messina and fight their way to Sardinia to assist the Aragonese. They also cannot hope to do real harm to the Despotate's italian possessions since at this point in history, they simply don't have the numbers to seriously threaten Messina or Syracuse. So, the Genoese would have a much easier time against the Aragonese. If Aragon does not enter the war, then the Genoese can send even more ships to the Aegean.

Since the Genoese do not control Chios - and the Black Sea is of even greater importance to them, they can properly concentrate their forces in Galata and the Black Sea. Moreover, the Despotate secures their lines of communication in a much greater degree than OTL.

There is always the threat that the Despotate can build light vessels across Euboea and attack the island even without having any proper galleys around. Such threat would tie down a squadron of galleys even without the Lascarids sending a fleet there. In OTL Comnenian Era, Euboea could supply 6 galleys, that would be classified as "light" ones by 14th century standards. Not enough for defence against a more powerful foe.

Overall, it seems that a Lascarid-Genoese alliance would have a greater ability to concentrate their forces.

 

[Lascaris]

Avignon, July 1335

Pope Benedict XII raised the interdiction against king Frederick III and Sicily. But with Frederick being besieged at Palermo it was doubtful the news would reach him for quite some time, or that Frederick would really care about it...

Arta, October 1335

Despot John II Orsini died under unclear circumstances, with rumors that he had been poisoned by his wife Anna arising. It would remain unclear whether Anna had actually poisoned John or not. What would be certain was that she would proclaim herself regent for her underage son Nikephoros.

Palermo, November 1335

The siege of the city went on. Six months into the siege food was starting to run out and illnesses were starting to take its toll within the city, with both Frederick III and his son Peter. Peter in his early thirties would recover. Frederick would not, succumbing to the illness in November 25th.

Palermo, December 25th 1335

The siege engines had stopped firing at the city as Eleanor of Anjou, dowager queen of Trinacria, crossed the siege lines to meet prince Charles. Peter II, the newly proclaimed king of Sicily, wasn't the sharpest mind the house of Barcelona had ever produced but could at least recognize his situation was desperate and try to use his mother, who was sister of Robert of Anjou and sister in law of Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes as his envoy. Quite quickly the negotiation would become one about the terms of Peter's surrended with Eleanor trying to secure the best deal for her son...

Larisa, March 1336

Theodore led his army west to Trikala. Anna could proclaim her son despot of Epirus as much as she wanted. But Theodore had an army and she had not. The late John II had grabbed parts of Thessaly at the time Theodore was doing the actual fighting against the Catalans. Theodore was too busy at the time to do something about it. But now the despotate was free to act...

Veroia, March 1336

Andronikos III Palaiologos led his army southwards towards Grevena and the Metsovo. It was time to bring Epirus back to the empire. Before his friend Theodore grabbed it for himself...

Durazzo, Albania, May 1336

King Peter I of Albania, set sight for the first time to his new capital. The arrangement his mother had managed to achieve was Peter surrendering his claims to Sicily in perpetuity in exchange for being granted the kingdom of Albania and accepting his uncle Robert the wise as his suzerain. Prince Robert of Taranto who actually held the kingdom after the death of his father Philip I four years earlier had been convinced to sell the title for a sum of money and fiefs in newly conquered Sicily. After all it was not as if the kingdom amounted to much. And Robert's holdings further south in Epirus had not been part of the deal.

Trikala, October 1336

The campaign was over. Theodore was reasonably happy with the results. Andronikos meddling had stopped him from advancing into Epirus it was true, but his army had still secured Orsini's holdings in Thessaly with little opposition. Which left open Eurytania but that was something to deal with next year.

Palermo, January 1337

Walter VI, of Brienne, newly made baili of Angevin Sicili was not happy. Sixty years ago the census of Charles I had returned a population of nearly 70,000 hearths for Val di Mazara, almost as much as the rest of Sicily combined. The new census for the reconquered province had returned nearly 37,000 hearths, barely more than half as many. The house of Anjou had spent rivers of gold and blood to recover a province for the most part wrecked in the effort to return it. And the peasants in his part of Sicily were not blind on how Vatatzes holdings to the east were prospering. The villains were voting with their feet leaving their villages and obligations to their rightful lords for Palermo and Lascarid Sicily. And Vatatzes, of course, would not return them...

Eurytania, April 1337

The mountaineers were not people who were getting impressed easily and too hardy to conquer easily as they and their ancestors had proven time and again over the centuries. Theodore had the advantage he was not a foreigner. And he was persuasive and clever enough to come to the mountains as a friend. The mountains had little of value materially beyond perhaps timber, and that wasn't particularly easy to move. But the mountains since the times of Homer were producing fighting men. Fiercely independent, excellent fighting men. Getting them on his side fighting for his armies was worth Theodore's time on the mountains and the gifts to the local communities and monasteries. Eurytania gave its fealty to Theodore...

Berat, July 1337

Albanian clans had taken advantage of the anarchy in Epirus to raid incessantly both imperial and Epirote holdings. Andronikos and ioannis Kantakouzenos, fresh from securing Ioannina had descended upon them with an army including 2,000 Turkish soldiers provided bt Umur of Aydin beating back the Albanians and carrying thousands into captivity. Imperial territory in Albania now secured, Andronikos now turned south marching on Arta to put an end to the remains of the despotate of Epirus. Anna would try to negotiate ruling Epirus as a vassal of the emperor but Andronikos has no interest in such arrangements when he could directly rule Epirus. Epirus would surrender with Theodore Synadenos made its governor in Arta and arrangements made for Nikephoros to marry a daughter of Kantakouzenos. But Nikephoros would be spirited away to Taranto by some of the Epirote nobles, where he would readily find refuge in the court of Catherine of Courtenay. But that was going to be a problem for a different day. For now what mattered was that Epirus was again part of the empire.

Nicomedeia, September 1337

The city, surrendered to the Ottomans. Byzantine Asia Minor, with the exception of Phokaia, was no more...

Westminster, October 1337

King Edward III of England formally rejected Philip VI right on the French throne. England and France were now at war...

Lentini, January 10th, 1338

It was still winter, but winter in Sicily was usually mild. And thus despot Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes was out hunting. For all his 58 years he was still a healthy and very active man. His party had cornered the wild boar and he closed for the kill. The boar, cornered, wasn't go down peacefully and charged against the despot's horse. The horse frightened for a moment tripped throwing its rider down. By the time the rest of the party could reach him, Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes, despot of Sicily was dead...

 

[DracoLazarus]

A few comments can be made.
With the fall of Orsini Epirus & Aetolia, it seems the Frankokratia is well and truly dead. What is left ? Lusignan Cyprus, Hospitaler Rhodes, and then the possessions of Genoa and Venice ? Theodore and Andronikos have well and truly partitioned Greece between themselves.
Nicomedia and Roman Anatolia are dead... So on the one hand, it is a liability gone (for the until then level of strength of the ERE) and the ERE probably gained more from winning Epirus and Albania, especially with Laskaris-style centralisation, than losing Nicomedia. However, from a reconquest optic it's a significant issue for a very simple reason. They no longer have a bridgehead. And while the ERE is somewhat more of a naval power than the Ottomans at the time, they are no Laskarids. Still, with only the sea, the Serbs and the Bulgars as "hostile" neighbors and the Laskarids as a "to manage at any cost" vassal, the Eastern Roman state seems reasonably secure in the short term.
Theodore is nibbling in Greece, but everyone expected it. More interestingly, the House of Aragon seem to be the chew toys of fate these few years.
Finally, Ioannis/Giovanni, Despot of the Sicilies, is dead, long live Alexandros/Alessandro II !

 

[Avrorrange]

A few comments can be made.
With the fall of Orsini Epirus & Aetolia, it seems the Frankokratia is well and truly dead. What is left ? Lusignan Cyprus, Hospitaler Rhodes, and then the possessions of Genoa and Venice ? Theodore and Andronikos have well and truly partitioned Greece between themselves.
Nicomedia and Roman Anatolia are dead... So on the one hand, it is a liability gone (for the until then level of strength of the ERE) and the ERE probably gained more from winning Epirus and Albania, especially with Laskaris-style centralisation, than losing Nicomedia. However, from a reconquest optic it's a significant issue for a very simple reason. They no longer have a bridgehead. And while the ERE is somewhat more of a naval power than the Ottomans at the time, they are no Laskarids. Still, with only the sea, the Serbs and the Bulgars as "hostile" neighbors and the Laskarids as a "to manage at any cost" vassal, the Eastern Roman state seems reasonably secure in the short term.
Theodore is nibbling in Greece, but everyone expected it. More interestingly, the House of Aragon seem to be the chew toys of fate these few years.
Finally, Ioannis/Giovanni, Despot of the Sicilies, is dead, long live Alexandros/Alessandro II !

Would be Theodore I, Despot of the Two Sicilies. Theodore has precedence over his son.

 

[Xenophonte]

They no longer have a bridgehead

Well, even if I tend to agree with your conclusion, I, for what it would be worth, should be noted that Phokaia, still remains under Constantinople 'control'. But, on the the bridgehead, I think that if the the Romans would manage to reform successfully and consolidate as a Balkan Power, then, if in place to need/require Turkish troop, the reverse would be true and allied with some Beyliks fight against the others,. Then, perhaps, the chance to get/acquire one would present itself....

 

[Avrorrange]

They don’t even control Chalcedon anymore? I always found it funny that they couldn’t even control a town directly opposite the capital. But RL is absurd.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

A few comments can be made.
With the fall of Orsini Epirus & Aetolia, it seems the Frankokratia is well and truly dead. What is left ? Lusignan Cyprus, Hospitaler Rhodes, and then the possessions of Genoa and Venice ? Theodore and Andronikos have well and truly partitioned Greece between themselves.

Keep in mind that IOTL Nikephoros managed to come back and restore Epirus, and considering how this TL has been developing so far, the same could happen here.

Nicomedia and Roman Anatolia are dead... So on the one hand, it is a liability gone (for the until then level of strength of the ERE) and the ERE probably gained more from winning Epirus and Albania, especially with Laskaris-style centralisation, than losing Nicomedia. However, from a reconquest optic it's a significant issue for a very simple reason. They no longer have a bridgehead. And while the ERE is somewhat more of a naval power than the Ottomans at the time, they are no Laskarids. Still, with only the sea, the Serbs and the Bulgars as "hostile" neighbors and the Laskarids as a "to manage at any cost" vassal, the Eastern Roman state seems reasonably secure in the short term.

The problem is that there is no more room for expansion and easy successes for the ERE. Epirus has been conquered, the south is under the control of a troublesome vassal and the northern neighbours are too strong. The empire can enjoy a few years of peace and reform but then what?

 

[Quinkana]

Durazzo, Albania, May 1336

King Peter I of Albania, set sight for the first time to his new capital. The arrangement his mother had managed to achieve was Peter surrendering his claims to Sicily in perpetuity in exchange for being granted the kingdom of Albania and accepting his uncle Robert the wise as his suzerain. Prince Robert of Taranto who actually held the kingdom after the death of his father Philip I four years earlier had been convinced to sell the title for a sum of money and fiefs in newly conquered Sicily. After all it was not as if the kingdom amounted to much. And Robert's holdings further south in Epirus had not been part of the deal.

I'm not surprised things went as per otl here. I'd think they'd probably be penned between the ere and the Lascarids and not be able to do much. Even with the ERE dying the Lascarids were still way too powerful for them...

Trikala, October 1336

The campaign was over. Theodore was reasonably happy with the results. Andronikos meddling had stopped him from advancing into Epirus it was true, but his army had still secured Orsini's holdings in Thessaly with little opposition. Which left open Eurytania but that was something to deal with next year.

Eurytania, April 1337

The mountaineers were not people who were getting impressed easily and too hardy to conquer easily as they and their ancestors had proven time and again over the centuries. Theodore had the advantage he was not a foreigner. And he was persuasive and clever enough to come to the mountains as a friend. The mountains had little of value materially beyond perhaps timber, and that wasn't particularly easy to move. But the mountains since the times of Homer were producing fighting men. Fiercely independent, excellent fighting men. Getting them on his side fighting for his armies was worth Theodore's time on the mountains and the gifts to the local communities and monasteries. Eurytania gave its fealty to Theodore...

And Theodore mops up the rest of Thessaly. I think it's good for him to take it and rest for a bit. The region won't be under serious pressure until Andronikos iii's death.

Palermo, January 1337

Walter VI, of Brienne, newly made baili of Angevin Sicili was not happy. Sixty years ago the census of Charles I had returned a population of nearly 70,000 hearths for Val di Mazara, almost as much as the rest of Sicily combined. The new census for the reconquered province had returned nearly 37,000 hearths, barely more than half as many. The house of Anjou had spent rivers of gold and blood to recover a province for the most part wrecked in the effort to return it. And the peasants in his part of Sicily were not blind on how Vatatzes holdings to the east were prospering. The villains were voting with their feet leaving their villages and obligations to their rightful lords for Palermo and Lascarid Sicily. And Vatatzes, of course, would not return them...

And so the kingdom of trinicaria falls to the kingdom of Naples.

With Walter holding the region I think the region will stagnate until the Lascarids conquer the region, and probably be important when Joanna becomes queen.

Also where did Peter go? Is he in Robert's or in the court of the Aragonese rn?

Berat, July 1337

Albanian clans had taken advantage of the anarchy in Epirus to raid incessantly both imperial and Epirote holdings. Andronikos and ioannis Kantakouzenos, fresh from securing Ioannina had descended upon them with an army including 2,000 Turkish soldiers provided bt Umur of Aydin beating back the Albanians and carrying thousands into captivity. Imperial territory in Albania now secured, Andronikos now turned south marching on Arta to put an end to the remains of the despotate of Epirus. Anna would try to negotiate ruling Epirus as a vassal of the emperor but Andronikos has no interest in such arrangements when he could directly rule Epirus. Epirus would surrender with Theodore Synadenos made its governor in Arta and arrangements made for Nikephoros to marry a daughter of Kantakouzenos. But Nikephoros would be spirited away to Taranto by some of the Epirote nobles, where he would readily find refuge in the court of Catherine of Courtenay. But that was going to be a problem for a different day. For now what mattered was that Epirus was again part of the empire.

I'm not surprised that things went as per otl here. Unless Theodore goes all in the Lascarids don't have a lot of leeway in how to act here.

Nicomedeia, September 1337

The city, surrendered to the Ottomans. Byzantine Asia Minor, with the exception of Phokaia, was no more...

And the decay of the empire occurs as per otl.

I really wonder how the empire would reform if the Lascarids aren't the ones who conquered it all and rebuilt the structures of Empire from the ground up. The nobles have sat on their lands for too long and they have rotten the foundations of the empire.

Westminster, October 1337

King Edward III of England formally rejected Philip VI right on the French throne. England and France were now at war...

Hmm, the hundred years war commences as per otl.

Lentini, January 10th, 1338

It was still winter, but winter in Sicily was usually mild. And thus despot Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes was out hunting. For all his 58 years he was still a healthy and very active man. His party had cornered the wild boar and he closed for the kill. The boar, cornered, wasn't go down peacefully and charged against the despot's horse. The horse frightened for a moment tripped throwing its rider down. By the time the rest of the party could reach him, Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes, despot of Sicily was dead...

Jesus Ioannis dying like that is extremely unfortunate, but Theodore becoming the despot for a bit before his son is interesting. Theodore probably would be leading the despotate in Athens instead, and his focus would be on the Balkans and not on Sicily, especially as he attempts to rebuild the devastated lands he had taken (before the black death, but still).

The problem is that there is no more room for expansion and easy successes for the ERE. Epirus has been conquered, the south is under the control of a troublesome vassal and the northern neighbours are too strong. The empire can enjoy a few years of peace and reform but then what?

Tbf partially why things got so bad was Serbia's rise while Andronikos iii died and he had no heir to replace him (his heir was too young). Even so I think if we get to that point the ERE definitely needs something new if it wants to reform and reconquer western Anatolia.

 

[Avrorrange]

Keep in mind that IOTL Nikephoros managed to come back and restore Epirus, and considering how this TL has been developing so far, the same could happen here.

The problem is that there is no more room for expansion and easy successes for the ERE. Epirus has been conquered, the south is under the control of a troublesome vassal and the northern neighbours are too strong. The empire can enjoy a few years of peace and reform but then what?

Wait for new opportunities. If you can hold the house together while others implode, you just found your opportunity.

 

[galileo-034]

Jesus Ioannis dying like that is extremely unfortunate, but Theodore becoming the despot for a bit before his son is interesting. Theodore probably would be leading the despotate in Athens instead, and his focus would be on the Balkans and not on Sicily, especially as he attempts to rebuild the devastated lands he had taken (before the black death, but still).

Not likely. For as important Athens' potential and place is, the political center of gravity is still in Sicily, closer to the Angevin overlords of Naples. Sicily remains the core of the Despotate.

Lentini, January 10th, 1338

It was still winter, but winter in Sicily was usually mild. And thus despot Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes was out hunting. For all his 58 years he was still a healthy and very active man. His party had cornered the wild boar and he closed for the kill. The boar, cornered, wasn't go down peacefully and charged against the despot's horse. The horse frightened for a moment tripped throwing its rider down. By the time the rest of the party could reach him, Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes, despot of Sicily was dead...

Then I guess we'll arrive to the question of Alexandros the Younger's bride sooner than later.
As you said, only Ioannis had any claim to Greece in the eyes of the Angevins, through his wife Maria's rights. But it's not like the Angevins can simply reclaim Greece from the Lascarids, and they simply don't have the resources for it.
And since you said Charles had three daughters (did I read right ?), instead of the two OTL (Maria was born posthumously, so I guess the third is an ATL daughter born in the early 1330s), that offers a face saving solution to both sides, to have Alexandros marrying one of Joanna's sisters and through her maintain Lascarid rights over Greece.

Just one thing though, Alexandros would definitely not become lover with Joanna, repudiate or break his engagement to Joanna's sister, and they would definitely not marry after Andrew's assassination, and all the other Angevins would then not accuse him of the murder, right ?
After all, daddy Theo has definitely not done anything wrong in "rescuing" his mother from Milutin and Alexandros the Younger would definitely not get the crazy idea of following his heart and do something really stupid... ^^
... Oh, what's that wooden horse in front of Syracuse's main gate?

 

[Andristan]

Ioannis Doukas Vatatzes, despot of Sicily was dead...

So, now he is dead, with no heir of his body, who gets Achaia? it was the dowry of his wife, if I recall correctly. Does Robert move against his loyal southern vassal try to reclaim his sister/cousin(?)'s dowry and give it to another noble? What does Maria herself do, return to her family's Neapolitan court, hang out with her husband's family, re-marry? This could be the implosion of the Vatatzes miracle, especially if Robert wants Achaia back and Theodore refuses to give it up.

 

[galileo-034]

So, now he is dead, with no heir of his body, who gets Achaia? it was the dowry of his wife, if I recall correctly. Does Robert move against his loyal southern vassal try to reclaim his sister/cousin(?)'s dowry and give it to another noble? What does Maria herself do, return to her family's Neapolitan court, hang out with her husband's family, re-marry? This could be the implosion of the Vatatzes miracle, especially if Robert wants Achaia back and Theodore refuses to give it up.

Population wise, the Lascarids are 'roughly' on par (when not counting Angevin Sicily and Provence) after the numbers that @Lascaris gave.
But of the two, the Angevins are exhausted from the war, revenue is tight and debts high running, while the Despotate is growing all the more prosperous (and we see how that goes in Angevin Sicily).
Trying to take Greece back from the Lascarids means all out war.
Especially after Malta, I don't give great odds to the Angevin fleet, which would be needed to actually put boots on the ground in Greece, nor to the chances of Angvins holding their part of Sicily for long.
We already read about Robert's reaction to the whole affair when he learned of Alexandros' birth, and that was pragmatic enough: they waited so far, they would wait a little bit further, so in essence, just wait the Lascarids out.

 

[Avrorrange]

Population wise, the Lascarids are 'roughly' on par (when not counting Angevin Sicily and Provence) after the numbers that @Lascaris gave.
But of the two, the Angevins are exhausted from the war, revenue is tight and debts high running, while the Despotate is growing all the more prosperous (and we see how that goes in Angevin Sicily).
Trying to take Greece back from the Lascarids means all out war.
Especially after Malta, I don't give great odds to the Angevin fleet, which would be needed to actually put boots on the ground in Greece, nor to the chances of Angvins holding their part of Sicily for long.
We already read about Robert's reaction to the whole affair when he learned of Alexandros' birth, and that was pragmatic enough: they waited so far, they would wait a little bit further, so in essence, just wait the Lascarids out.

If the Lascarids die out, the ERE will probably just walk into the Peloponnese and say MY LAND. The locals will probably agree. The Angevins essentially have no legitimacy amongst the population of Achaea. Even their claims over the Latins of the region was dubious. The Angevins might have a bit more luck in Southern Italy and Sicily, but I suspect the local Greeks will just tell them to screw themselves.

 

[galileo-034]

If the Lascarids die out, the ERE will probably just walk into the Peloponnese and say MY LAND. The locals will probably agree. The Angevins essentially have no legitimacy amongst the population of Achaea. Even their claims over the Latins of the region was dubious. The Angevins might have a bit more luck in Southern Italy and Sicily, but I suspect the local Greeks will just tell them to screw themselves.

Or some prominent officer of the Lascarid army, say a scion of either Philantropenos/Tarchaneiotes or Asen families, could be proclaimed despot by their men, in good old Roman fashion, and be backed up by most of the civil aristocracy, or the merchant communities of Messina, Monemvasia and Chios, who would have much to lose from the status quo evaporating.
I think that we are past that point where the Despotate has ceased just being the Lascarids' thing and has taken a life of its own.

EDIT: Here, the imperial government in Constantinople is just not credible enough: simply put, the Despotate is, anachronistically, outgunning the empire by a large margin. It's difficult contemplating an empire that could just be the Despotate's vassal if the Despots hadn't had more pressing matters, suddenly absorbing the Lascarid realm, when it should be the other way around.

EDIT 2: I cited Philantropenos and Asen because they featured prominently.
Wiki says Alexios had a son Michael, who became general, and Andronikos Asen, who has passed into Lascarid employment and conquered Phocis for them, had two sons Manuel and John, also military commanders. I suppose each three will be of the generation trained by Alexios' to shape the officer corps of the Lascarid military and succeed him.