He was doing it in hopes of having allies. If the Angevins are partisans of the pope, then I must be the opposite.
The eagle's left head
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Firstly, I think it is more likely that the Lascarids would become allies with the Hungarians over Serbia, which would be a menace for quite some time, and the main problem with the Vatatzes/Lascarids going for Naples is that they're going for broke: both branches of the Angevins don't want Lascarid rule over the kingdom. They would also have to contend with Hungary (which would be beatable, but remember he has the rest of Naples to deal with, which would be hard), and unforeseen consequences like a second Catalan invasion (or even a Venetian intervention even though it is unlikely) could occur. The other major problem is that the Vatatzes, even if they used the opportunity to chase the nobles out, would have to rule the reigon as feudal lords beyond their own domains as wiping all the feudal nobles out all at once would cause more problems than it would fix.
I do agree that its a good time for the Vatatzes to act, although I'd think they'd have to act cautiously. The Durazzos and Taranto families were strong forces in the Kingdom and would act against the Vatatzes too, and the Vatatzes (if they were to take the reins of the kingdom) will not be able to run the nation similar to the other realms they currently control, which would only make administration of the realm more difficult.
I just see the Vatatzes securing Calabria and finish Frederick off, and maaaybe attempting to secure Puglia first between Robert's death (Joanna and her allies may allow the Vatatzes taking over Sicily for their loyalty) and Louis leaving Naples, and as things continue to spiral then I could see the Vatatzes maybe going for more gains as claimants of the Kingdom of Sicily.
tbf I think the opportunity for the Angevins to take out the Vatatzes are growing weaker and weaker as the Vatatzes expands in the Balkans, especially as they take back more of former ERE land. tbf the time between then and Robert's death (assuming the Vatatzes takes over Thessaly and kicks Alfonso out, while John of Gravina doesn't take Epirus except Cephalonia) the Vatatzes would have had ample time to digest their conquests. By 1343 they should be ready to push for further expansion.
Firstly, I think it is more likely that the Lascarids would become allies with the Hungarians over Serbia, which was a menace for quite some time, and the main problem with the Vatatzes/Lascarids going for Naples is that they're going for broke: both branches of the Angevins don't want Lascarid rule over the kingdom. They would also have to contend with Hungary (which would be beatable, but remember he has the rest of Naples to deal with, which would be hard), and unforeseen consequences like a second Catalan invasion (or even a Venetian intervention even though it is unlikely) could occur. The other major problem is that the Vatatzes, even if they used the opportunity to chase the nobles out, would have to rule the reigon as feudal lords beyond their own domains as wiping all the feudal nobles out all at once would cause more problems than it would fix.
I do agree that its a good time for the Vatatzes to act, although I'd think they'd have to act cautiously. The Durazzos and Taranto families were strong forces in the Kingdom and would act against the Vatatzes too, and the Vatatzes (if they were to take the reins of the kingdom) will not be able to run the nation similar to the other realms they currently control, which would only make administration of the realm more difficult (as doing so would cause outcry).
I just see the Vatatzes securing Calabria and finish Frederick off, and maaaybe attempting to secure Puglia first between Robert's death (Joanna and her allies may allow the Vatatzes taking over Sicily for their loyalty) and Louis leaving Naples, and as things continue to spiral then I could see the Vatatzes maybe going for more gains as claimants of the Kingdom of Sicily.
tbf I think the opportunity for the Angevins to take out the Vatatzes are growing weaker and weaker as the Vatatzes expands in the Balkans, especially as they take back more of former ERE land. tbf the time between then and Robert's death (assuming the Vatatzes takes over Thessaly and kicks Alfonso out, while John of Gravina doesn't take Epirus except Cephalonia) the Vatatzes would have had ample time to digest their conquests. By 1343 they should be ready to push for further expansion.
tbf them not moving at all after robert dies does seem weird though. Minor expansions to take more of Calabria while killing Frederick off without giving said lands to Joanna would be something I see them doing though, and between 1343 and 1350 I see the Hungarians just telling the Vatatzes to not interfere and they'd mostly just sit out the conflict.
Yeah, the Vatatzes is in a very enviable position by that point in time. I wonder how would Robert attempt to get the Vatatzes under his daughter's control before his death.
I don't see Alfonso ruling the Duchy of Athens for much longer. The numbers and the commanders/training the Vatatzes can afford would crush him.
PS would we see the Palaeologos-Montferrat doing better against Joanna ittl? it'd be interesting to see them have a different route in history despite John II being basically an Italian noble at this point. We know John II fought against Joanna during the early days of her reign, and a meeting between John and Ioannis would be interesting.
Out of the lot, I think the Hungarian branch would be the main problem if things proceeds as otl. Louis the Great almost completely culled the House of Anjou in Naples. The princes were either executed or dragged to Hungary by him. If the Lascarids came in and distributed their land to the underclasses, there’s not much the surviving Angevins could work with. IOTL, only reason Charles III could take power was thanks to the patronage of Louis the Great. That said it’s true that the Hungarians could be useful against the Serbians.
I do wonder if the Louis the Great could be convinced to give up his claim on Naples with a marriage or two and still continue the alliance. After the OTL invasion, he gave up on the kingdom completely.
You mean a second Aragonese invasion? That I see it potentially happening.
It’s what they have been doing all the time though.
If you take that much, may as well finish them off. Leaving them with only Campania and Abruzzo is meaningless. Don’t leave things 90% finished.
Realise that even if they takeback the rest of Greece, they would hardly be some kind of great power. Even the ERE under the Komnenians with a much greater domain had trouble dealing with minor powers like Serbia and Cilicia. If the Vatatzes don’t finish the Angevins now, they will probably ally with the Vatatzes‘ opponents in the East and attack them whenever they are distracted.
There’s really two choices. Either marry Joanna to young Alexandros so that the two families become one or find as many allies as possible and attack the Vatatzes before they could consolidate Greece. Even if the Vatatzes doesn’t take the throne, they will try to take advantage of Joanna as you mentioned.
Athens is gone. The Vatatzes have it.
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Rather I think the Hungarian branch would be the best thing that happened to the Lascarids. Beyond the fact that Robert dying with no one to replace him, the heads of the house of Durazzos and Tarantos getting killed by the Hungarians means that Puglia has a power vacuum for a while, which the Vatatzes could go in and take Puglia and Basilicata, which would be the best thing they could take outside of the conquest of Naples. Considering that Louis of Hungary never went beyond Aversa I think they would be fine with the Vatatzes, especially since they were in Syracuse, and probably would have had a lot more leeway than usual. I don't think the Tarantos and co could've fought off the Vatatzes for their occupied lands too.
I think it is possible. It depends on the Aragonese king though, and I really do wonder if they'd do that as the Vatatzes have been shown to be able to put a lot of men on the field.
Something like this map (without the bits in Foggia and other bits in Naples and without Bari) would be for the best. This would not scare other actors too much, and the Vatatzes brothers can hold it as a fait accompli.
tbf it depends. It really is more about how the strength of the empire and how good the generals are, as the ERE has lost with armies much bigger than thier enemies...
Alfonso is still controls some of thessaly, the Vatatzes aren't done with them yet. Athens itself is taken by the Lascarids ye.
Part 47
Salona, Phokis, April 18th, 1227
The castle, one of the strongest in Frankish Greece, finally surrendered to Sicilian forces leaving the entirety of Phokis to the despotate. But the success of Andronikos Asen also meant that by now the despotate of the Two Sicilies directly bordered Angevin holdings in Greece as well as the southern edge of the despotate of Epirus.
Constantinople, May 24th, 1327
Taking Manuel in custody the previous year had effectively meant Andronikos III resuming the civil war, or so had been perceived by his grandfather at least who had acted accordingly. The resumption of hostilities had not gone particularly well be the elder Andronikos, with town after town in Thrace changing sides till Andronikos III had found himself in front of Constantinople. Then one or more gates had been thrown open and his troops had entered the Queen of Cities itself. Andronikos II after ruling for 45 years would be confined into a monastery but not hurt otherwise. Ioannis Kantakouzenos would become the new emperor's grand domestic, refusing Andronikos offer to become co-emperor. His father in law Andronikos Asen would soon be back in imperial service.
Milan, May 31st, 1327
Louis IV of Bavaria was proclaimed king of Italy. The newly proclaimed king would nearly perish from poisoning in early July, an occasion leading to the arrest of nearly the entire Visconti family. Then in October John XXII would excommunicate Louis with notably little effect in stopping him.
Neopatras, June 1327
Theodore had marched north from Thermopylae at the head of an army ten thousand strong, which as soon as Salona fell had been reinforced by a further 4,000 men. Alfonso had little chance to hold against such numbers in open battle. Thus he resorting to falling battle on his castles while his army harassed the attacking Sicilian armies. It wasn't the fast campaigns Theodore and Alexios might had preferred, but it wasn't the kind of campaign they would not had expected either. And Neopatras, the ancient Ypati, the capital of the duchy of Thessaly was the first to be attacked by the advancing Sicilian army.
Palermo, October 1327
The pressure on the kingdom of Sicily had eased somewhat as the Angevins had to turn most of their attention on Louis the Bavarian descend into Italy. Robert had still left an army of some seven thousand men under Walter VI of Brienne in Sicily. Frederick even after being forced to land half his fleet with the marines joining the army had only managed to delay enemy advances, at the cost of even heavier raiding by Angevin and despotate galleys alike on Sicilian shipping and coasts alike. But Frederick, as usual. was optimistic of the future. He even had reason to be optimistic this time as the army of Louis the Bavarian was marching on Rome.
Rome, January 17th, 1328
Louis was crowned Holy Roman emperor. In the absence of the pope who after all had excommunicated Louis three Italian bishops along with member of the Roman civic nobility had performed the crowning. That two of them were Venetian and the third Pisan could not go unnoticed. Come May Pietro Rainalducci would be proclaimed pope Nicholas V in Rome in direct opposition to pope John XXII in Avignon.
Lamia, April 1328
Mobilization orders for the army had already gone out from the previous December with the Sicilian army, now increased by about a thousand more pronoia holders, a quarter of them heavy cavalry the rest infantry, assembling by February for the new campaign. The procedure would had hardly looked extraordinary or new at the time of the Comnenes or even under John III or Michael VIII. But this was no longer their time and Theodore's was the sole regularly paid standing army in Greek lands, at least at the moment. The campaign of the previous year had gone well with Neopatras, Lamia and the entirety of Phthiotis up to Mount Othrys secured. Alexios Philanthropenos was not the kind of man who would let the pressure off now that he had Alfonso cornered and Theodore was not the kind of man to disagree with his uncle on this.
Constantinople, August 1328
Ioannis Kantakouzenos was beginning to feel harassed from the multitude of problems besetting him. The entire administration of the empire passed through his hands as Andronikos preferred other aspects of ruling like leading the army. Unlike his grandfather and father he was successful in this, when back in June the Bulgarians had invaded he had invaded Bulgaria in turn forcing the tsar to sign a new peace. But the empire by now lacked a serious army, navy or revenues and had grown too decentralized to arrest and reverse the process easily. Not a good thing when news were reaching Constantinople of the continuing advances both of the Ottomans in Anatolia, where on the advice of his grand vizier Alaeddin Pasha, Orhan had just begun cutting his own silver coinage and established a permanent standing army, including the yaya infantry corps, to the continuing advances of Theodore Lascaris in Thessaly where he had begun besieging Demetrias from land and sea. Of course Theodore was technically an ally. But one who was starting to become too large for comfort...
The castle, one of the strongest in Frankish Greece, finally surrendered to Sicilian forces leaving the entirety of Phokis to the despotate. But the success of Andronikos Asen also meant that by now the despotate of the Two Sicilies directly bordered Angevin holdings in Greece as well as the southern edge of the despotate of Epirus.
Constantinople, May 24th, 1327
Taking Manuel in custody the previous year had effectively meant Andronikos III resuming the civil war, or so had been perceived by his grandfather at least who had acted accordingly. The resumption of hostilities had not gone particularly well be the elder Andronikos, with town after town in Thrace changing sides till Andronikos III had found himself in front of Constantinople. Then one or more gates had been thrown open and his troops had entered the Queen of Cities itself. Andronikos II after ruling for 45 years would be confined into a monastery but not hurt otherwise. Ioannis Kantakouzenos would become the new emperor's grand domestic, refusing Andronikos offer to become co-emperor. His father in law Andronikos Asen would soon be back in imperial service.
Milan, May 31st, 1327
Louis IV of Bavaria was proclaimed king of Italy. The newly proclaimed king would nearly perish from poisoning in early July, an occasion leading to the arrest of nearly the entire Visconti family. Then in October John XXII would excommunicate Louis with notably little effect in stopping him.
Neopatras, June 1327
Theodore had marched north from Thermopylae at the head of an army ten thousand strong, which as soon as Salona fell had been reinforced by a further 4,000 men. Alfonso had little chance to hold against such numbers in open battle. Thus he resorting to falling battle on his castles while his army harassed the attacking Sicilian armies. It wasn't the fast campaigns Theodore and Alexios might had preferred, but it wasn't the kind of campaign they would not had expected either. And Neopatras, the ancient Ypati, the capital of the duchy of Thessaly was the first to be attacked by the advancing Sicilian army.
Palermo, October 1327
The pressure on the kingdom of Sicily had eased somewhat as the Angevins had to turn most of their attention on Louis the Bavarian descend into Italy. Robert had still left an army of some seven thousand men under Walter VI of Brienne in Sicily. Frederick even after being forced to land half his fleet with the marines joining the army had only managed to delay enemy advances, at the cost of even heavier raiding by Angevin and despotate galleys alike on Sicilian shipping and coasts alike. But Frederick, as usual. was optimistic of the future. He even had reason to be optimistic this time as the army of Louis the Bavarian was marching on Rome.
Rome, January 17th, 1328
Louis was crowned Holy Roman emperor. In the absence of the pope who after all had excommunicated Louis three Italian bishops along with member of the Roman civic nobility had performed the crowning. That two of them were Venetian and the third Pisan could not go unnoticed. Come May Pietro Rainalducci would be proclaimed pope Nicholas V in Rome in direct opposition to pope John XXII in Avignon.
Lamia, April 1328
Mobilization orders for the army had already gone out from the previous December with the Sicilian army, now increased by about a thousand more pronoia holders, a quarter of them heavy cavalry the rest infantry, assembling by February for the new campaign. The procedure would had hardly looked extraordinary or new at the time of the Comnenes or even under John III or Michael VIII. But this was no longer their time and Theodore's was the sole regularly paid standing army in Greek lands, at least at the moment. The campaign of the previous year had gone well with Neopatras, Lamia and the entirety of Phthiotis up to Mount Othrys secured. Alexios Philanthropenos was not the kind of man who would let the pressure off now that he had Alfonso cornered and Theodore was not the kind of man to disagree with his uncle on this.
Constantinople, August 1328
Ioannis Kantakouzenos was beginning to feel harassed from the multitude of problems besetting him. The entire administration of the empire passed through his hands as Andronikos preferred other aspects of ruling like leading the army. Unlike his grandfather and father he was successful in this, when back in June the Bulgarians had invaded he had invaded Bulgaria in turn forcing the tsar to sign a new peace. But the empire by now lacked a serious army, navy or revenues and had grown too decentralized to arrest and reverse the process easily. Not a good thing when news were reaching Constantinople of the continuing advances both of the Ottomans in Anatolia, where on the advice of his grand vizier Alaeddin Pasha, Orhan had just begun cutting his own silver coinage and established a permanent standing army, including the yaya infantry corps, to the continuing advances of Theodore Lascaris in Thessaly where he had begun besieging Demetrias from land and sea. Of course Theodore was technically an ally. But one who was starting to become too large for comfort...
I'd suppose that from the Constantinople point of view, the ideal way to deal with both may be to let do face/fight between them, hoping to neutralize both... Of course, that even leaving aside feasibility matters, it considering the historical/family links from the Laskaris between the Empire's remaining Anatolian subjects. It may not be advisable to even if possible to think of attempting to implement it...
I believed, that even if nominally, that the Despotat ruling family, still consider themselves as still belonging to the Empire and that at least de jure they still are imperial subjects. Even, if I'm not mistaken, if they aren't paying any taxes (or at least not any more) to the Empire, neither for their Sicilian lands nor for the just acquired in Greece proper...
Now, I have the foreboding feeling, that Kantakouzenos may try to apply/employ the ancient Roman tactic/policy of 'Divide et Impera' against the Lascaris. And/or using to/joining with either Epirus or even the if less likely, should the opportunity may arise, with any other power like the Angevins
Is it fair to assume that these new pronoias are from Phokis and the parts of Phthiotis that were conquered during the previous campaign year?
Kantakouzenos has lived long enough at the Catepanate to know the ability of the Lascarids to utilize the resources of their domain and the relative amplitute of resources at their disposal. A better understanding of lascarid power will certainly influence the imperial policy.
I stand in awe of the amazing time traveling abilities of Andronikos Asen to force the surrender of a castle a hundred years before he was born(or 60 years or something like that) lol.
Hm, so after looking into the next few years OTL, we get the battle of Velbazhd in a few years (July 1330) which is heavily influenced by the Mercenaries that Stefan Decanski can pull together from the Balkans. The majority of these Mercs ITTL wont be available because of the Despotate. 1000 Heavy Cavalry from the Catalans are in Thessaly, 500 Serbian Heavy Cav have been killed by the Despotate in Attica/Thessaly, and Im assuming the Catalans are recruiting any Italians in the Balkans to their side as they're about to lose their last Castles in Thessaly soon it seems like. This would result in roughly 2000-3000 less troops for the Serbians bringing them to rough parity with the Bulgarians. I wonder if this would be enough for the Bulgarians to at least not collapse like they seem to have IOTL?
Of course, I might be stretching the numbers a bit, for all I know the majority of the 500 Serbians sent to the Catalans made it home after the campaign they were in in Boeotia, but I thought Lascaris had mentioned that they had charged forth in the van and all perished on the spears of the Despotate's pronoia? Of course, a few years would also allow Stefan Decanski to rally 500 more Serbians, but I wonder if they'd have the same quality as the men he sent to fight Theodore.
Of course, I might be stretching the numbers a bit, for all I know the majority of the 500 Serbians sent to the Catalans made it home after the campaign they were in in Boeotia, but I thought Lascaris had mentioned that they had charged forth in the van and all perished on the spears of the Despotate's pronoia? Of course, a few years would also allow Stefan Decanski to rally 500 more Serbians, but I wonder if they'd have the same quality as the men he sent to fight Theodore.
Hmm where do the Angevin's Greek lands touch the Lascarid's lands?
hmm so the civil war is less brutal than otl? Since the last phase ended much earlier than otl (like an entire year earlier) I wonder how would that change things. A stronger Empire is better for Andronikos III, but it is not as good for the Vatatzes/Lascarids, which are using said power vacuum to take more land.
Hmm that is good for the Lascarids, pushing to slowly but surely finish Alfonso and kick the Catalans out would be for the best.
that makes sense for Frederick, and I think he'll prob act like this until he dies lol.
Philantropenos is definitely doing well, and I hope he'll conquer the lands that Alfonso still holds. Even though that'll make Constantinople more uncomfortable of their power, speaking of which:
That's not really that surprising considering the conquest of Morea from the ERE and the conquest of the Duchy of Athens. They must be very popular in Greek circles rn considering they're taking back lands that have been lost to the Latins for a long time in the last few decades, they must have the notoriety Andronikos III would only dream of having despsite being the vassals of the ERE.
I can see Epirus being very important where the Lascarids and Andronikos III would fight each other. tbf if Philantropenos and co are fast enough I could see Andronikos III be chased out of Epirus by the Lascarids if they're persistent enough.
tbf the Lascarids are now kinda on the backfoot as Andronikos III strengthens the empire, but between then and Robert's death I see the consolidation of their conquests be really important for strengthening their position within the region and allowing them to have more options as they present themselves, which would be myriad as the Black death eventually sweeps through the region, and various empires rise and fall.
But seriously they're going to have a hectic decade by the 1340s.
One just has to wonder now if the laskarids are going to play the part of good vassals who want to strengthen the empire or usurp it all together. Eg will they come to Constantinople's aid if the Bulgarians, Serbians, Ottomans attack? Give any reconquered land back over to the central authority?
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Right now, is Athens formally Roman or Neapolitan territory?The Laskarids’ lieges need to fight it out. The same goes with other land like the Greek islands.
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Athens is rightful Laskarid Clay as of the 1320s.
Robert has bigger fish to fry in Northern Italy, and Joanna will have her hands full in Central/Northern Italy during her reign. Frederick is too weak to project power outside Palermo, let alone Hellas.
Then we have Andronikos III (Triple A): Godfather to Theodore's son... who also has just lost a major city in Anatolia, and will have to deal with an aggressive Stefan Dusan soon along with Orhan Ghazi... To put it simply, A3 has bigger fish to fry. OTL A3 did step in when Thessaly and Epirus had crises and subsumed them back into the ERE, but one could argue if that was really the best way to utilize his resources... And those breakaway provinces didn't have the ability to call forth 10K Hellas pronoia either... (not even counting Sicilian pronoia...).
No, Southern Hellas is firm Laskarid clay until Stefan Dusan decides to step in really, and that gives Theodore & Ioannis roughly two decades to consolidate Thessaly (And Epirus soon?) which should be more than enough time.
The real question is if the Laskarid expansion in Southern Hellas will influence the Italian Maritime Republics formalization of an alliance with the Serbians ITTL. That might shift the dynamic of the Balkans, although I still don't think that will happen. Venice's fears of Serbian domination won't allow that in my opinion though. And, the other Maritime Republics will have to deal with Robert/Joanna and the HRE Emperors interfering in Italy as well.
Robert has bigger fish to fry in Northern Italy, and Joanna will have her hands full in Central/Northern Italy during her reign. Frederick is too weak to project power outside Palermo, let alone Hellas.
Then we have Andronikos III (Triple A): Godfather to Theodore's son... who also has just lost a major city in Anatolia, and will have to deal with an aggressive Stefan Dusan soon along with Orhan Ghazi... To put it simply, A3 has bigger fish to fry. OTL A3 did step in when Thessaly and Epirus had crises and subsumed them back into the ERE, but one could argue if that was really the best way to utilize his resources... And those breakaway provinces didn't have the ability to call forth 10K Hellas pronoia either... (not even counting Sicilian pronoia...).
No, Southern Hellas is firm Laskarid clay until Stefan Dusan decides to step in really, and that gives Theodore & Ioannis roughly two decades to consolidate Thessaly (And Epirus soon?) which should be more than enough time.
The real question is if the Laskarid expansion in Southern Hellas will influence the Italian Maritime Republics formalization of an alliance with the Serbians ITTL. That might shift the dynamic of the Balkans, although I still don't think that will happen. Venice's fears of Serbian domination won't allow that in my opinion though. And, the other Maritime Republics will have to deal with Robert/Joanna and the HRE Emperors interfering in Italy as well.
I do think that Andronikos III and John Kantakouzenos probably would still have to show that they're the 'master' of the vassal though, even if they won't dethrone the Vatatzes/Lascarids. Especially when Alexandros II has Palailogos blood in him, and could claim the throne by being the cousin of the next emperor. They are way too dangerous.
On the other hand I think we'll see Andronikos III be focused on Serbia and Bulgaria and even the Ottomans other than the Vatatzes. They are the major power who they have some amount of power over as they are nominally a vassal, and Andronikos III is quite close to the Vatatzes brothers.
I think they won't unless the Vatatzes attempt to take Euboea, Crete or the Ionian islands, which I could see the Vatatzes attempt to do. I do think they'll do it long after the Serbian Empire dies off though, and Hungary and Serbia would be too strong for Venice to directly act against the Vatatzes.
tbf considering the armies Stefan Dusan could field they are quite horrific against the Vatatzes, which could probably field armies around the 10,000 mark with the current territories they have, and 20,000 is probably the upper limit the Vatatzes could field. Even if they do pike and shot properly I don't think they could fend off armies much bigger than themselves unless the Serbians split their armies.
tbf Avorrange is correct in that Naples is the best region for the Vatatzes to expand into, if only because the kingdom has many players that the Vatatzes could play against and gain more lands with Greeks in them. I could see them conquer Aquila as the Hungarians come through, and I think they'll be less hated than the Hungarians with their mercenaries.
The 1340s may see them retreat back to Corinth if things get very bad for the Vatatzes in the Balkans... Maybe we'd see the Vatatzes diplomatically deal with Stefan with a marriage between the Vatatzes and the kings of Serbia. Maybe Teodora-Evdokija? They're around the same age...
tbf I think the best marriage the Vatatzes could get would be with the Serbians. The Serbians will probably be someone they would need to diplomatically become 'friends' with, which is to their mutual benefit.
I meant legally speaking are the new lands they conquered supposed to be administered as vassals of the Roman Emperor, the Neapolitans or like you said actually independent much like how England was during times when the King of England was vassal to the King of France as Duke of Normandy etc.
I really doubt if Stefan Dusan will have the same success if Rome manages to avoid the civil war between Katakouzenos and Anna of Savoy. Even if the civil war goes the Laskarids could jump in and end it sooner. From what I read most of the Serbian gains were made during that civil war or after when the Empire was weaker than ever. So having a more successful Andronikos with the help of the Despotate would be a major obstacle for the Serbian monarch.
I would argue that Theodore would help Andronikos the 3rd with the defense on Bithynia. Mainly to prove himself not a threat to the Romans and also to keep his army experienced. Even if the locals love the Laskarids I believe Andronikos is in such a desperate state in Asia Minor that any help would be needed. I mean the Ottomans don't have massive armies and 20 years ago the Catalans were defeating them and now the Catalans are being pushed back by the Vatatzes/Laskaris. An expedition force of 2k-3k would suffice to put an end to Ottoman aggression.
I doubt that Ioannes would like to put himself into the whole Angevin succession crisis. I mean he is eligible for it but I doubt that it is worth the trouble. Yeah I know Naples is a very rich and powerful state, but it has a ton of unruly and strong vassals. Not to even mention the other junior Angevins lines and the whole trouble that would entail. IMHO Ioannes should just take some land for compensation , maybe the rest of Sicily for best defensible borders, and then just stay out of it, or even nib some other border lands depending on the circumstances.
I would argue that Theodore would help Andronikos the 3rd with the defense on Bithynia. Mainly to prove himself not a threat to the Romans and also to keep his army experienced. Even if the locals love the Laskarids I believe Andronikos is in such a desperate state in Asia Minor that any help would be needed. I mean the Ottomans don't have massive armies and 20 years ago the Catalans were defeating them and now the Catalans are being pushed back by the Vatatzes/Laskaris. An expedition force of 2k-3k would suffice to put an end to Ottoman aggression.
I doubt that Ioannes would like to put himself into the whole Angevin succession crisis. I mean he is eligible for it but I doubt that it is worth the trouble. Yeah I know Naples is a very rich and powerful state, but it has a ton of unruly and strong vassals. Not to even mention the other junior Angevins lines and the whole trouble that would entail. IMHO Ioannes should just take some land for compensation , maybe the rest of Sicily for best defensible borders, and then just stay out of it, or even nib some other border lands depending on the circumstances.
That could be super interesting. Perhaps an agreement could be made that the ERE's 'claim' on Epirus could be granted to Theodore in exchange for 4-5K pronoia in the defense/reconquest of Bythinia in cooperation with any soldiers Andronikos III can summon forth? That would prolong Byzantine control of NW Anatolia for a time, but Anatolia really deserves the entire attention of the Imperial Throne, not just one campaign. Otherwise the Turkomens will just retreat before the ERE's army and come back when they leave.
I just don't see an advantage to gaining more of mainland Italy outside more of Calabria or Apulia? I'd rather see Ioannis use Joanna's chaotic reign to convince her that in exchange for the claim to the entirety of Trinacaria and all Angevin claims to Hellas, she will have his neutrality (maybe alliance?). This would give Ioannis and Theodore full reign to take Trapani, Palermo, Malta, the Aeolian Islands and Epirus (John of Gravina I think is here?). With Trinacaria under the thumb of the Vatatzes, that would give them a very secure power-base to build off of for Naples in the future, in my opinion.
Ah, yeah, I see what you're saying now. I'm not really sure legally speaking, but the Vatatzes seem practically independent right now (realpolitik speaking).