Bye bye Frederick, it was nice knowing you.
Are the Aragonese willing to back Frederick in any way?
Possibly. The two are closely connected after all. Though for the most part this is Frederick actively aiding the Aragonese conquest of Sardinia, at considerable cost to the Sicilian crown, while James just allows and encourages mercenaries to go to Sicily...
It does seem like things quite quickly turned against House Vatatzes, however we are seeing none of their preparations, intelligence gathering, etc. Alexandros has been preparing for something like this long before he walked out of parliament. I am surprised by the seeming coordination between Greece and Sicily, that seems a bit like dramatic license to me. Based on the levels of competence involved I think there's a good chance of Theodore defeating Ferdinand before he can link up with the Catalans and the Vatatzes fleet crushing Frederick's leaving House Vatatzes in a very strong position. Subsequently defeating the Catalans might be a nice opportunity for rapproachment between Constantinople and the Vatatzes.
Ferdinand did invade Achaea with Aragonese/Sicilian backing in OTL at this very time so it looks an obvious move here, as is to sic the Catalan company on Achaea simultaneously, again it was requested even in OTL. After all it does not cost Frederick troops and money. These are coming from Majorca and Ferdinand himself.
Fredrick you have higher priorities right now to deal with but u just have to fight the Greeks huh? Bruh
He has some excuses. After all he's just signed a truce with Robert...
Frederick trying to fight his strongest (nominal) vassal while embroiled in a war against the Angevins seems like a losing prospect, though I can definitely see the Catalans pushing the Despotate out of Achaea until Sicily is dealt with.
Technically he just signed a two year truce with the Angevins. If he can destroy Alexandros in that time window, and Frederick was always... very confident of himself even when the Angevins kept beating him up like a drum, it allows him to then deal with Robert from a much better position.
I wonder whether in TTL the Catalans got involved in Euboea, like conspiring with Baron Bonifacio and controlling Karystos as in OTL. Such moves would alarm Venice.
Venice would be alarmed by a Catalan Greece in general. Bernat though is more likely to be looking northwards, he had ambitions of becoming king of Thessalonica in OTL after all.
John II Angelos still lives and he is married to the illegitimate daughter of Andronikos. When the Catalans move south to invade the Catepanate of Hellas, I can see Michael IX returning to help his brother-in-law. Michael considered himself a soldier and didn't enjoy his (quite regular) failures as a commander. A chance for the co-emperor to show his value!
It's unclear why Michael kept being beaten up. Personal failures? Or his dad making a mess of the army?
Giovanni Orsini is screwed. Regardless of what happens in the mainland, the Despotate enjoys naval supremacy. The day of reckoning is not far away and it will produce very interesting butterflies. I doubt Despot Thomas of Epirus will be murdered as in OTL. Moreover, the Byzantines have to deal with the Catalans in Thessaly and won't raid Epirus as in OTL. Direct control of the Orsini fiefs will be a nice addition to Sicily: Cephalonia , Zakynthos, Lefkada and Ithaca.
That remains to be seen. For now Orsini is taking a possibly justifiable risk.
In OTL the Catalans employed Turkish mercenaries. I wonder whether if the move they just did is at the same scale as in OTL or if they escalated the cooperation with the beyliks. If it is the latter, I wonder how the Knights of St John will take it.
Not very well but then the pope was asking the knights to attack the Catalans even in OTL. Then again there is no pope at the moment.
I am pretty sure Robert would like all his patrimony back, be it in the hands of Alexandros or Frederick. For the time being though, Alexandros is playing nice while Frederick is an actual danger since he supports the Ghibellines in mainland Italy. At this point, Frederick is the main backer of the ghibelline cause. The fact that he just assumed the title of Robert himself, hasn't helped either.
A vassal/allied Alexandros that controls part of Sicily is likely acceptable. At a stretch so is an independent one. A non Angevin in control of the entire island is likely not.
Oh oh...
Sure the peasants of Achaea will be glad to welcome back their former masters and supply them with all needed for a protracted siege. Obviously, the Catepanate of Hellas has not enough galleys of its own (Chios, the Cyclades...) to be able to raid Attica, launch a coup de main against a couple castles here and prop up revolt here against an enemy who has no fleet but surely the loyalty of their subjects and enough manpower to keep safe the entire length of its coasts... Oh wait, they don't.
Bernat is not an idiot obviously. Perhaps overly confident. But he has issues of his own. Namely that his own men would not take it well if he refused to come to the aid of what they see as their royal house.
What's that point on the map again? Marathon? Hmm, never heard of.
And Frederick as ever smart to attack a vassal who has had many years of peace, and stores full of grain, while he is broke and Robert lurks around.
The alternative would be to let him grow richer and more powerful while he is embroiled at war with the Angevins. What do you mean he had no reason to start said war in the first place?
More seriously, Hellas has had almost six years of peace now, and from its Aegean domains, it has enough ships to avoid relying on help from Eastern Sicily and Calabria, especially when confronted to the likes of Orsini and the Catalans. Of his own admission (october 1309), Bernat has no fleet, and I doubt he'd have done much since the deal with Ioannis to change that.
The Catalans engaged in widespread piracy in the Aegean after 1311 and till the Venetians nearly went to war with them and Sicily. So they do have a fleet. Short of...
And back in August 1305, Orsini had "discovered" the legitimacy of Ioannis' claim when Vatatzes ships showed up the flag at Cephalonia, so I don't think Theodoros would have much trouble cutting off Orsini and Ferdinand from resupply in their effort to besiege Glarentza.
The Frankish-Aragonese invasion force has little chance to get any friendly welcome so it will be hard enough to procure supply, especially as after the previous war, local militias are more likely than not to give a bloody nose to any foraging party. Then, I wonder, if their main force is besieging Glarentza, who is left guarding the Palatine county?
Fort garrisons but that is a story for later.
If Theodoros cuts them off and gain naval supremacy, what prevents him from invading Cephalonia and Corfu?
Corfu is Angevin...
Back in Sicily, Frederick is short on money after his war against Robert and provisions due to bad harvests, while Alexandros has untouched lands, a thriving economy (not to mention Robert's money from purchasing his grain) and an experienced, competent and veteran army and navy, contrasting with the royal forces' misfortunes on the field.
And while there is a truce with Robert, I'm not seeing Naples sitting idle. If either Frederick or Alexandros stand to win the whole of the island, that would at Robert's detriment, while if he breaks the truce, he has better odds now than ever, than he had at Trapani before, even if he and Alexandros don't coordinate.
Robert is out of the picture as far as direct involvement goes till 1317...
Seriously, I've no idea why Bernat would do this other then wanting to fight after conquering significant territories. He really should be consolidating his conquests rather than fighting the Vatatzes. I think the Vatatzes would be winning big by the end of it, with them gaining Athens at the very least, but additional territories in Sicily proper (or even all of Sicily) could be possible too. Maybe they'd get influence over Epirus and Thessaly too.
Because he's keeping herd of 5,000 unruly, ungentlemanly thugs, that feel at least a modicum of loyalty to the house of Barcelona. Betraying the house of Barcelona, would not be taken very well by the rank and file. Which is potentially bad for your health if you are Bernat.
Well someone could say that it was about time for the Despotate to get challenge seriously. I mean the conquest of Achaea wasn't easy but the barons there didn't really stand a chance against both Vatatzes navy & army as well as Philanthropenos genius and their own peasantry rebelling.
If anything the conquest of Achaea might have been a bit too fast, but I digress.
On the navy the situation is a bit murky.
@X Oristos has mentioned in a guess about 100 ships, although split between Messina and the Aegean. I would guess that after the recent galley built up in Messina there would be there like 45-60 galleys and about 20-35 in the Aegean which leaves the navy up to be defeated in detail if the Ferdinands unite their navies which I find highly unlikely. The Morean front on the Aragonese side it seems that they have the upper hand in ships as Orsini's ships in addition to the Aragonese expedition should be at least than 35 ships.
Pretty doubtful they'd have that many war galleys. The three banked ships that are becoming the norm have crews of 213 men or more each. 35 galleys mean over 7000 men. Ferdinand showed up in OTL at the head of a FAR smaller army.
Would Bernat , an experienced commander , make an error so horrible as this ? He would effectively willingly sever his supply lines and enter a hostile territory where he will have to live off the land while under threat from the army the Vatatzes will field . All that while he will be effectively cut off by all reinforcements (because it's unlikely he can have a reinforcing force large enough to safely pass without being at severe risk of attack ) and he has no real line of retreat in case something goes wrong . Add to that the fact that his men have already worked for his enemy once before and by worsening his circumstances, he increases the chances of desertion at the first sign of trouble by a lot .
His men are loyal, shorta kinda so, to Aragon, with the exception of his Turkish mercenaries of course...
