The eagle's left head

[Lascaris]

Syracuse palace, December 25th, 1304

Alexandros Doukas Vatatzes did not even raise an eyebrow as Frederick III, the king and queen of Trinacria could not be missing from the marriage of Ioannis, not with Alexandros the king's largest vassal and the bride being the younger sister of the queen, brought him the important news that the world was coming to an end they had to prepare for its end. Meanwhile Frederick was waxing on enthusiastically on his subject. Arnau de Vilanova had reached Palermo a couple pf months earlier having escaped the inquisition after being held suspect even for the sudden death of pope Benedict XI, how Arnau could had accompliced that deed from prison was not said. At Palermo the doctor turned mystic who prophesied Antichrist was arriving in 1368 had proceeded to convince Frederick and himself that Frederick had been chosen by divine grace to be the instrument for the purification of Christendom in anticipation of the coming Armaggedon.

Alexandros wasn't much bothered by someone having trouble with the papacy, after all he had been excommunicated by several popes himself, but this newly found spirituality of the king and many of his Catholic subjects was... concerning. Sicily had been put on interdict for two decades with no Sicilian allowed to receive the sacraments, get baptized or be ordained priest and the king and the Catholic Sicilians appeared to be trying to cover the gap in a hurry as did the papacy which had been quick to try installing bishops of her own. Things had been different in the despotate, the Greek priests while theoretically under the jurisdiction of Rome had went on with their jobs ignoring with Alexandros support the interdict, if anything he had taken advantage of the situation to install more and more Basilians in the empty sees created from the interdict within the despotate. This of course meant that the despotate was still in conflict with the papacy, the interdiction may had been lifter but the popes had yet to resume their relation with the Basilian order. But the papacy had much bigger problems at the moment with the French crown and Alexandros was not in a hurry. It was no accident that the college of cardinals was being held at swordpoint by Charles II at the moment and had not elected a king for the past several months. But if Frederick and his direct subjects were turning into fanatics this was potentially a problem. Not least given the continuous problems with the borders between the various bishoprics of the island and the troubles with the barons...

Achaea, March 25th, 1305

The Greek peasantry crushed by taxes by taxes and maltreated by Frankish barons had been increasingly grumbling particularly since Philip of Savoy had put even heavier burdens on them to prepare for his hoped for campaign against the Byzantine held lands in the south. This might well had led to an uprising on its own [1]. But over the past several months kindling and organization of a different kind had start to work their way through the Greek population. The news that king Charles had taken away Achaea from the current prince to give it in dowry to his daughter were spreading everywhere, as had the news that in the parliament last year the barons had decided to stand by Philip instead and refuse to accept Charles decisions. And while normally the Greeks couldn't care less about the Franks doings this time it was different. Because the French king in Naples was giving back Achaea to the Greeks. Or so the people quietly spreading silver and promises through the Peloponnesian peasantry claimed. On March 25th the day of the annunciation the Greeks of Skorta let Achaea into general revolt.

Navarino castle, April 16th, 1305

Twenty Sicilian galleys entered the gulf, unloading an army of three thousand men under Alexandros Philanthropenos. The castle's garison taken by surprise and weakened as Nicholas III of Saint Omer marshal of Achaea and owner of the castle might had still held out for some time if some of the Greeks in garrison had not thrown open one of the gates for the Sicilians. Theso called Belissarius of the Palaiologan era would not sit idle on his success. His army would be on the march absorbing rebels in short order just as Ioannis led the fleet south to strike Kalamata. There he would be joined by 10 more galleys from Chios...

Adrianople, April 30th, 1305

Roger de Flor had been invited by Michael IX to Adrianople for discussions, the Catalan company financial demands were still unmet despite the company being paid 1 million hyperpyra over the past two years and the campaign against the Turks had been abandoned despite its successes the previous year with Roger setting up camp in Gallipoli instead. Roger was at least somewhat suspicious as he had brought with him 1,300 men. Ut would be proven he had reason to worry as Michael set his Alans and the Cattalan massacring Roger and most of his escort. But if Michael and his father had hopped the leaderless company would disperse they were in for a rude awakening.

Perugia, June 5th, 1305

Raymond Bertrand de Got archbishop of Bordeaux was elected pope as Clement V. The new pope was not a cardinal and while technically a subject of the English king a Frenchman and a childhood friend of king Philip IV. The new pope would not show any particular interest to move to Rome after his election...

Karytaina, July 17th, 1305

Over the past few months the Sicilians had secured Messenia, Kalamata had surrendered to Ioannis Vatatzes in June, and advanced into Arcadia joining the rebels there and placing the castle of Karytaina under siege. Philip of Savoy initially taken aback by the swift invasion and the revolt had not challenged Philantropenos so far. But Karytaina, one of the strongest baronies of the principality could not be left to fall and the barons were growing restless and demanded action. And thus the Achaean levy, slightly over 5,000 men including 1,200 knights and men at arms and 3,000 heavily armed infantry and a moved to take on the invaders. Philantropenos army swelled by volunteers from the area it had taken and Byzantine Laconia, Andronicus had ordered his general at Mystra to stay out of the fight, but not every soldier had adhered by the orders with many crossing over to join Philanthropenos, was probably slightly stronger in numbers. But over a third were lightly armed rebels of questionable military experience...

[1] It did in OTL

 

[JosefBelz]

Over the past few months the Sicilians had secured Messenia, Kalamata had surrendered to Ioannis Vatatzes in June, and advanced into Arcadia joining the rebels there and placing the castle of Karytaina under siege. Philip of Savoy initially taken aback by the swift invasion and the revolt had not challenged Philantropenos so far. But Karytaina, one of the strongest baronies of the principality could not be left to fall and the barons were growing restless and demanded action. And thus the Achaean levy, slightly over 5,000 men including 1,200 knights and men at arms and 3,000 heavily armed infantry and a moved to take on the invaders. Philantropenos army swelled by volunteers from the area it had taken and Byzantine Laconia, Andronicus had ordered his general at Mystra to stay out of the fight, but not every soldier had adhered by the orders with many crossing over to join Philanthropenos, was probably slightly stronger in numbers. But over a third were lightly armed rebels of questionable military experience...


In the past few months the size of the

Delete the repeated first line.

Well, lets see how the battle goes, though I honestly cannot see how they are going to defeat Philantroupenos when he has a superior army.

 

[X Oristos]

Reading further in Laiou's book, it seems that Morisco had indeed 2 ships. He seems to have been part of the genoese flotilla of 16(or 18) ships that arrived in May 1305, had a skirmish with the Catalans and then all but 2 ships departed. At best, Morisco had arrived a bit earlier and thus he might not have commanded more than 4 galleys. The Despotate can surely produce a bigger squadron to assist Andronikos and Michael against the Catalans.

When the Catalans besieged Rodosto in 1306, Andronikos was able to send only two ships to the relief of the city. At July 1306 a major byzantine effort yielded 7 ships that attacked Gallipoli along with a genoese flotilla and were defeated. It is worth mentioning that the Genoese didn't commit a "standing" fleet for a whole campaign season. They just ordered their convoy sailing to the Black Sea for trading to be of use on the way in and out.

In the next few years a small imperial flotilla of 10 galleys was built but didn't last more than 6-7 years.

I am also under the impression that the diplomatic situation between Andronikos, Frederick, James and Alexandros will become even more entangled. There is a good chance that the Catalans will ask for help from both Aragonese rulers and Vatatzes. While Andronikos might ask for Vatatzes to intervene. Lot's of potential developments from such a situation.

By the way, according to Laiou, Roger de Flor had already pillaged Lemnos, Lesvos and Chios in OTL. Chios is safe in TTL, but where would the other islanders seek protection?

 

[Quinkana]

Alexandros wasn't much bothered by someone having trouble with the papacy, after all he had been excommunicated by several popes himself, but this newly found spirituality of the king and many of his Catholic subjects was... concerning. Sicily had been put on interdict for two decades with no Sicilian allowed to receive the sacraments, get baptized or be ordained priest and the king and the Catholic Sicilians appeared to be trying to cover the gap in a hurry as did the papacy which had been quick to try installing bishops of her own. Things had been different in the despotate, the Greek priests while theoretically under the jurisdiction of Rome had went on with their jobs ignoring with Alexandros support the interdict, if anything he had taken advantage of the situation to install more and more Basilians in the empty sees created from the interdict within the despotate. This of course meant that the despotate was still in conflict with the papacy, the interdiction may had been lifter but the popes had yet to resume their relation with the Basilian order. But the papacy had much bigger problems at the moment with the French crown and Alexandros was not in a hurry. It was no accident that the college of cardinals was being held at swordpoint by Charles II at the moment and had not elected a king for the past several months. But if Frederick and his direct subjects were turning into fanatics this was potentially a problem. Not least given the continuous problems with the borders between the various bishoprics of the island and the troubles with the barons...

It seems that Alexandros would break with Frederick first compared to Charles, considering that Frederick would be fighting a war against Charles soon, and that there is a huge possibility that it'd cause Alexandros to have to take a stand as Frederick could become zealous and demand his bishops to be put in Alexandros' lands, which would piss off Alexandros a lot.

Over the past few months the Sicilians had secured Messenia, Kalamata had surrendered to Ioannis Vatatzes in June, and advanced into Arcadia joining the rebels there and placing the castle of Karytaina under siege. Philip of Savoy initially taken aback by the swift invasion and the revolt had not challenged Philantropenos so far. But Karytaina, one of the strongest baronies of the principality could not be left to fall and the barons were growing restless and demanded action. And thus the Achaean levy, slightly over 5,000 men including 1,200 knights and men at arms and 3,000 heavily armed infantry and a moved to take on the invaders. Philantropenos army swelled by volunteers from the area it had taken and Byzantine Laconia, Andronicus had ordered his general at Mystra to stay out of the fight, but not every soldier had adhered by the orders with many crossing over to join Philanthropenos, was probably slightly stronger in numbers. But over a third were lightly armed rebels of questionable military experience...

Considering that Morea most likely would be taken over by Philantropenos' army, I'm interested in how Alexandros technically broke his promise against Andronikos that Philantropenos wouldn't return to the Empire, even if his goal is achaea. Other than that the taking of Morea would be a boon for the Vatatzes and that it'd be cool for Old Hellas be held by a strong house and not be conquered when the Empire shatters and various countries come in to conquer it, ending with the Ottomans.

 

[Xenophonte]

but this newly found spirituality of the king and many of his Catholic subjects was... concerning.

Well, I'd suppose that Alexandros, could try to avoid any potential Latin-Greek interdenominational conflict redirecting it against the perceived common enemies. Averting a potential conflict that while providing a useful excuse for the King and the Papacy, would be undermining the loyalty and his rule legitimacy among the rest (majority?) of his romance speaking subjects/vasals. Redirecting/canalizing it, and as a way of getting all of them involved, the Despot 'd be asking collaboration (either volunteering/helping to fund) for any possible/eventual expedition against either the Turks or from more possible interest, for his Sicilian subjects and the local Roman Church, to the nearby North Africa.

 

[goumaister]

On March 25th the day of the annunciation the Greeks of Skorta let Achaea into general revolt.

If this was uploaded yesterday it would have a better ring to it . It draws a quite obvious parallel to the 1821 rebellion against the Ottoman Empire as it is the same day on the same place, broadly I mean Peloponnese.

Now that the Catalans are set loose Andronikos will more than likely ask from Vatatzes to help against them which will have indeed interesting consequences. If Philanthropenos loses this battle then the Catalans might join with the Achaeans for support and then ask from Sicily, Aragon, the Pope and Naples for help although Naples will be quite opposed if they ally with the Achaeans. I feel like there is time for a setback here even in temporary as the loss in Karytaina won't dislodge the Syracusans from Achaea as they can get reinforcements later.

A new Cretan revolt will also be interesting although a little too much at the same time for Alexandros.

 

[justinmil22]

are there any maps to show current borders in Europe atm ?

 

[Lascaris]

Delete the repeated first line.

Well, lets see how the battle goes, though I honestly cannot see how they are going to defeat Philantroupenos when he has a superior army.

Superior is... open to question here. Philantropenos begun with about 3,000. He got about 2,500 volunteers bringing his numbers up to a rough 5,500. But the majority of the volunteers that joined his ranks are badly armed and of limited training. While as a striking force these 1,200 knights on the other side are nothing to sneeze at if they can press a charge home.

Reading further in Laiou's book, it seems that Morisco had indeed 2 ships. He seems to have been part of the genoese flotilla of 16(or 18) ships that arrived in May 1305, had a skirmish with the Catalans and then all but 2 ships departed. At best, Morisco had arrived a bit earlier and thus he might not have commanded more than 4 galleys. The Despotate can surely produce a bigger squadron to assist Andronikos and Michael against the Catalans.

That supposes that the despots WILL want to assist Andronikos and Michael in the first place. One notes that when young Ioannis Vatatzes was sent to Calabria it was in the company of an experienced officer advising and aiding him. One Roger de Flor. Ioannis may not be entirely happy at news his former associate and advisor was massacred out of hand by Michael on Andronikos orders.

When the Catalans besieged Rodosto in 1306, Andronikos was able to send only two ships to the relief of the city. At July 1306 a major byzantine effort yielded 7 ships that attacked Gallipoli along with a genoese flotilla and were defeated. It is worth mentioning that the Genoese didn't commit a "standing" fleet for a whole campaign season. They just ordered their convoy sailing to the Black Sea for trading to be of use on the way in and out.

During the siege of Rhodes an imperial squadron of 20 ships in mentioned in the port.

I am also under the impression that the diplomatic situation between Andronikos, Frederick, James and Alexandros will become even more entangled. There is a good chance that the Catalans will ask for help from both Aragonese rulers and Vatatzes. While Andronikos might ask for Vatatzes to intervene. Lot's of potential developments from such a situation.

All reasonably likely. Vatatzes position would be... complicated to say the least. The Catalans for example are at the moment attacking everything in sight mount Athos included. On the other hand they had loyally served house Vatatzes and were instrumental in the victory against the Angevins in Calabria...

By the way, according to Laiou, Roger de Flor had already pillaged Lemnos, Lesvos and Chios in OTL. Chios is safe in TTL, but where would the other islanders seek protection?

I wouldn't know would I?

It seems that Alexandros would break with Frederick first compared to Charles, considering that Frederick would be fighting a war against Charles soon, and that there is a huge possibility that it'd cause Alexandros to have to take a stand as Frederick could become zealous and demand his bishops to be put in Alexandros' lands, which would piss off Alexandros a lot.

Considering that Morea most likely would be taken over by Philantropenos' army, I'm interested in how Alexandros technically broke his promise against Andronikos that Philantropenos wouldn't return to the Empire, even if his goal is achaea. Other than that the taking of Morea would be a boon for the Vatatzes and that it'd be cool for Old Hellas be held by a strong house and not be conquered when the Empire shatters and various countries come in to conquer it, ending with the Ottomans.

Technically Achaea is not part of the empire... but Andronikos is welcome to try. After all Chios is providing a revenue of 80,000 ducats. A fully equipped galley in 1530 cost 2,300 ducats, much less at the moment. At a crew of 213 per galley (I'm assuming here the Despotate has gone from the older two bank galleys to three bank ones, that had a crew of 152, that's the war of the vespers was the time the switch apparently took place. So add 426 ducats a month in maintenance. Counting a 500 man regular garrison, within 3 years you can have a dozen galleys operational just out of Chios...

Well, I'd suppose that Alexandros, could try to avoid any potential Latin-Greek interdenominational conflict redirecting it against the perceived common enemies. Averting a potential conflict that while providing a useful excuse for the King and the Papacy, would be undermining the loyalty and his rule legitimacy among the rest (majority?) of his romance speaking subjects/vasals.

Greeks are likely a majority in the despotate's part of Sicily at least that's my working estimation based on the not too many data we have available.

Redirecting/canalizing it, and as a way of getting all of them involved, the Despot 'd be asking collaboration (either volunteering/helping to fund) for any possible/eventual expedition against either the Turks or from more possible interest, for his Sicilian subjects and the local Roman Church, to the nearby North Africa.

For added fun Frederick's eschatological beliefs are borderline heretical and Frederick and with him Sicilian catholics won't be taking particularly well to the Avignon papacy...

If this was uploaded yesterday it would have a better ring to it . It draws a quite obvious parallel to the 1821 rebellion against the Ottoman Empire as it is the same day on the same place, broadly I mean Peloponnese.

Now that the Catalans are set loose Andronikos will more than likely ask from Vatatzes to help against them which will have indeed interesting consequences. If Philanthropenos loses this battle then the Catalans might join with the Achaeans for support and then ask from Sicily, Aragon, the Pope and Naples for help although Naples will be quite opposed if they ally with the Achaeans. I feel like there is time for a setback here even in temporary as the loss in Karytaina won't dislodge the Syracusans from Achaea as they can get reinforcements later.

One notes Naples is supposed to be supporting Vatatzes in Achaea. Officially at least.

A new Cretan revolt will also be interesting although a little too much at the same time for Alexandros.

The next revolt OTL took place in 1319, in 1303 after the Alexandria earthquake Kallergis interceded to stop plans for a new uprising. Now arguably 1303 was too close to the previous revolt.

are there any maps to show current borders in Europe atm ?

Nope. It's early 14th century Europe we are talking about. As close to insanity for map making as you van make it...

Speaking of the changed circumstances, this is a sniper from Laiou's book on Andronikos' Foreign Policy "Constantinople and the Latins"


View attachment 820725

In contrast to OTL, the potential rebels in Crete have the example of their fellow Cretans that followed Philanthropenos west. They know that their countrymen got lands and honors in Sicily. If Kallergis doesn't want to lead another revolt, then they might try their lack with offering their service to Vatatzes.

One could say that even in OTL they had the example of Byzantium but yes overall the despotate would be looking at the moment a good place to migrate not just for rebellious Cretans but in general for people not particularly happy with what goes on in Asia Minot and Greece at the moment. Chios potentially makes a useful conduit for people wanting to get out from Asia Minor as a matter of fact.

On the matter of naval power, Pachymeres says that when the Venetians sent 13 galleys and 7 pirate ships against Constantinople in the summer of 1302, there were no warships to oppose them. Apparently the handful of warships remaining were somewhere else.

And for this Andronikos had to blame... ah yes himself.

 

[Quinkana]

All reasonably likely. Vatatzes position would be... complicated to say the least. The Catalans for example are at the moment attacking everything in sight mount Athos included. On the other hand they had loyally served house Vatatzes and were instrumental in the victory against the Angevins in Calabria...

tbf I could defo see the Vatatzes navy get into the action, but idk would they want to fuck with venice at this point?

Technically Achaea is not part of the empire... but Andronikos is welcome to try. After all Chios is providing a revenue of 80,000 ducats. A fully equipped galley in 1530 cost 2,300 ducats, much less at the moment. At a crew of 213 per galley (I'm assuming here the Despotate has gone from the older two bank galleys to three bank ones, that had a crew of 152, that's the war of the vespers was the time the switch apparently took place. So add 426 ducats a month in maintenance. Counting a 500 man regular garrison, within 3 years you can have a dozen galleys operational just out of Chios...

I mean true, but I do think Andronikos wouldn't be the happiest dude, just saying. I'm pretty sure he'd think of Old Hellas when he thought about 'the empire' lol. Also Chios is a very good catch considering the navy the Vatatzes could wield.

Nope. It's early 14th century Europe we are talking about. As close to insanity for map making as you van make it...

tbf it'd be really interesting when we see a map when the Ottomans take over and the lines settle, at least in the balkans and southern italy.

One could say that even in OTL they had the example of Byzantium but yes overall the despotate would be looking at the moment a good place to migrate not just for rebellious Cretans but in general for people not particularly happy with what goes on in Asia Minot and Greece at the moment. Chios potentially makes a useful conduit for people wanting to get out from Asia Minor as a matter of fact.

yeah I could see the Greeks fleeing Anatolia using chios to escape, especially the ones in places where the turks are more entrenched like cappadocia and the urban elite in general. I defo see the Renaissance coming earlier ittl.

 

[galileo-034]

I guess Alexandros and Ioannis could say "sorry, too busy in Achaea for the time being". But given Ioannis' personal relations with the Catalan Company's leadership, I surmise he will at some point get to use this leverage with Andronikos to extract some more concessions in exchange for convincing the Catalans to pay a visit to the Frankish lords of southern Greece and back under Vatatzes' payroll; of course Ioannis would need the Basileus to foot a good part of the bill, and he would definitely not be using this opportunity to expand his domain in the region, right ?

Superior is... open to question here. Philantropenos begun with about 3,000. He got about 2,500 volunteers bringing his numbers up to a rough 5,500. But the majority of the volunteers that joined his ranks are badly armed and of limited training. While as a striking force these 1,200 knights on the other side are nothing to sneeze at if they can press a charge home.

Just out of curiosity, were any of the Achaean barons anywhere near Castrovillari? Or did they hear of its details, or even of Courtrai ?

 

[galileo-034]

Rough sketch, projecting a "little" bit forward.

 

[X Oristos]

Nice map !

Regarding the potential future expansions, the Duchy of Athens is an interesting case. Charles didn't give the overlordship of Athens to Ioannis. However, the most important vassal of Guy de la Roche is Nicholas of St Omer. I am not sure from the wording if St Omer was in Navarino castle when it fell. Other than that, de la Roche held the fiefs of Argos and Nafplio, the productive argive plain. It all comes down if he will aknowledge Ioannis' suzerainty over his morean holdings or not. Lastly, we know the frankish army has 1,200 cavalry. @Lascaris were those just Morean knights and St Omer knights from Boeotia or de la Roche sent a contingent as well?

 

[Quinkana]

tbf I could see Euboea come into the suzerainty of the Vatatzes too if they play their cards right, as after the death of Guy de la Roche one of its future rulers alfonso fadrique took over euboea who was part of the catalan company. If the Vatatzes basically take over the place of 'Latin rulers' either by negotiating with the catalan company or something I could defo see them keeping it. After all Euboea is an island and should be within their means to seize it.

 

[galileo-034]

Not of Athens, though from what I could gather in the wiki article on the War of Euboeote Succession of 1256-1258, the Dukes of Athens held some fiefs as vassals of the Princes of Achaea (admittedly, the web of entanglements in the feudal divisions of Frankish Greece confuses me a little). Plus, the perspective of a Greek reclaiming Achaea makes me think not a few lords in Athens would seek to get into the fray. Add to that the Catalans coming south ...

Here's the wiki map for 1278 as ref :

 

[galileo-034]

Closer to home, what's the attitude of the Despotate towards trade and merchants?

I don't quite remember where I did read it, but I read the summary of an opinion that emphasize the over reliance of Byzantines on land derived revenues, which was especially detrimental as they lost ever more lands in Anatolia and then in the Balkans, while they missed on the wealth derived from trade that they had let the Italian merchant republics captate.

Granted, Alexandros Vatatzes founded his Despotate by transposing Nicaean Lascarid recipes to eastern Sicily and Calabria, with much success. But what about trade policies and practices?
Having started and built his Depostate from the ground up as a naval power of its own, the Vatatzes are not going to be at the mercy of other Italian maritime republics the way the Empire had become, just to say that if Alexandros and Ioannis elected to pursue proactive trade policy, they'd have the means to back their merchants endeavours across the Ionian sea, which upon the conquest of Achaea would become a virtual Vatatzes lake, and the Aegean where the acquisition of Chios provides a potent base to project power, not to mention any other possible conquests discussed above.
Could they eventually measure up to Venice and Genoa ? I don't see how Ioannis will avoid dealing with either republic if he pursues his ventures in Greece, either from his base in Chios or through the "War of Achaean succession".

 

[galileo-034]

Besides, what happens if Maria fails to produce an heir to Ioannis, as OTL? Ioannis would hold Achaea jure uxoris (unless I'm mistaken over what Achaea being a dowry legally implies here), and unless she gives him a son, the Vatatzes Depostate is in for another war of succession over Morea.
Or would the TL pull out another miracle child ?

 

[Avrorrange]

Besides, what happens if Maria fails to produce an heir to Ioannis, as OTL? Ioannis would hold Achaea jure uxoris (unless I'm mistaken over what Achaea being a dowry legally implies here), and unless she gives him a son, the Vatatzes Depostate is in for another war of succession over Morea.
Or would the TL pull out another miracle child ?

Probably a different Maria but with same name given all the TTL changes, like her father getting captured by Alexandros at one point.The parents may be the same, but it’s really unlikely she is the same Maria conceived with the same sperm and egg.

 

[X Oristos]

Could they eventually measure up to Venice and Genoa ? I don't see how Ioannis will avoid dealing with either republic if he pursues his ventures in Greece, either from his base in Chios or through the "War of Achaean succession".

To be honest, I don't know if the Lascarids tried to promote their own merchants. The major player here is the commune Messina (Messene TTL). I think it makes sense the Messinese will develop a significant merchant navy, but I think the process will be slow and will take decades to be true competitors to Genoa and Venice. After all according to the Decline and Fall of Medieval Sicily

one of the earliest privileges demanded by the Messinese merchants from their new Catalan monarchs - namely, that the tax on foreign trade (dohana maris) in Messina's harbor be levied upon the shipowners rather than on the merchants who used the vessels to transport their cargoes

The occasional OTL messinese merchantmen used to operate in the East. Now they will have more opportunities, but they will still be very small to cause a true threat to the genoese and venetian trade. They might start their ventures by asking privileges in Morea and Chios: e.g. for mastic to be sold exclusively to them.

When it comes to Genoa, I think the most important factor will be Alexandros and Ioannis involvement (or lack of) to the Ghibelline and Guelph feuds. At that time, the guelph party ruled Genoa. In OTL, Genoa supported Robert after Frederick started being the major patron of Ghibellines across Italy. Other than that, Sicily was an important market for Genoa, so I think there might be more incentives for cooperation rather than conflict, especially since Alexandros attention will be drawn to the east and not to the north.

Speaking of the latter, giving Morea to Ioannis was a great move by Charles and Robert. In OTL the War of the Vespers ended due to angevin exhaustion to subjugate Sicily. In contrast, in TTL the Angevins were dealt significant tactical defeats before calling for peace. They also didn't manage to preserve the integrity of south Italy, since they lost Calabria (in contrast to Frederick just holding to a few outposts there). Their prestige has suffered more. Their power is just a bit smaller than in OTL.

I am wondering what kind of implications such developments might have to the Ghibelline - Guelph conflict. In OTL Robert was almost the master of Italy, even if without political control over it. In my opinion, Robert spending so much political capital, blood and treasure on the Ghibelline-Guelph conflict was a strategic mistake. That commitment did not allow him to throw more resources on his attempts against Sicily. Another better policy would have been to consolidate his holdings in Piedmont, buy Dauphine and form a polity on both sides of the Alps that would be a regional power on its own. However, by focusing on Lombardy, Tuscany and on opposing the weak Emperor he couldn't afford such policies. Therefore, my question is that due to the new circumstances, if the Ghibelline-Guelf quagmire will be even worse as a strategic distraction.

Lastly, I am curious what will happen to Philip of Taranto. He is not getting the Principality of Achaea this time. He already has Acarnania and Aetolia after his marriage with Thamar of Epirus. Will he try to turn the Despotate of Epirus into a vassal? Will he try to conquer it? Will he try to revive the Kingdom of Albania? After all, during the previous year (1304) Durazzo was recaptured by the Angevins.

 

[HerodotosofBerlin]

If this map is still acurate could the Laskarids reconquer Smyrna, before it is conquered by the Sarukhanids?

 

[galileo-034]

If this map is still acurate could the Laskarids reconquer Smyrna, before it is conquered by the Sarukhanids?

The Vatatzes cannot be everywhere at once.
They have a good window of opportunity for the conquest of Achaea and deal with any complication that go along (ie intervention by the Duchy of Athens, or the matter of the Catalans), but closer to the core of their power, in Sicily that is, the Despotate will have to deal with the troubles coming to Italy, between the tensions with King Frederick, the Guelphs/Ghibelines conflict and the dual vassalage to Frederick and Angevins... Oh, and the plague sometime down the line I surmise.
That said, the presence of the Vatatzes in Morea, perhaps Attica too, and across the Aegean from their base in Chios, will mean Turkish pirates might have a harder time against the Sicilian and Greek fleets of the Despotate, and butterfly the Smyrnote Crusade.
But I wonder what would be the Vatatzes' interest in retaking Smyrna. Holding it means getting stuck with an ever enduring conflict with the mosaic of Turkish beyliks in Anatolia, a drain on the resources of the Despotate, while keeping the Aegean sea free of pirates and the coasts of the beyliks at their mercy is more effective. There is of course the perspective of liberating the original homeland of Lascarid and Vatatzes houses, but the endeavour would be a costly one.

Alexandros don't have the resources for that yet, and at the very least, you'd have to wait for Ioannis to consolidate the Despotate's rule over southern Greece and the Aegean. That brings us to the mid 14th century I'd estimate, at which point, much will depend on how the Byzantine civil wars of that era will play out with the Vatatzes Despotate around. Vatatzes' participation could possibly butterfly the Ottomans gaining a foothold in Europe, but you'd still have the Serbian expansion north of the Depostate's domain in southern Greece to deal with.