The eagle's left head

[Avrorrange]

I beg to differ in such generalization, given that,IMO, from interpretation of the period, it was the socio-political system in which they were immerse/raised that usually determined and help to explained their attitudes and behaviour. Same ones that, lets not forget that were exacerbated by the State/Imperial weakness and political fragmentation plus the infighing that not only not left them with no practical way out to their situation but also exacerbate it.

That is actually what I was trying to say actually, but I just couldn't phrase it more appropriately. Not that the individual Greek was a loser, but that their society and government were essentially such a trainwreck at this point in time that it's very difficult to actually resist a determined foreign opposition as the Ottomans proved. There is a limit to what individuals and small groups could do. You need a degree of social/state cohesion and organization to resist. Which is why with the right amount of incentives,skill and the ability to smash the opposition, you can likely do a reconciliation. It's not like there weren't people supporting reconciliation either.It was legitimately a movement during this period.

Edited in the earlier post to clarify what I was trying to say. Apologies to Greek people in this thread for the misunderstanding and poor choice of words.

From which, would serve as evidence, again, IMO, which the careers and life of so many of those sames ones, that as you noted, were willingly or forceful inducted into the State such as Zaganos Pasha, Pasha Angelović or Mesih Pasha.

Not just them. During the siege of Constantinople itself for example, there were a lot of Christian non-Janissary conscripts who joined the Ottoman army by force or otherwise.

Edit. Also, about the notion that would be any intrinsic Latin war skills/ thoughteness, superiority over the Greeks, I think that would be disproved remembering/looking at the results of the Latin/Western Crusades/expeditions against the Ottomans such as Nicopolis or Varna.

I don't disagree with this actually.

 

[Quinkana]

That is actually what I was trying to say actually, but I just couldn't phrase it more appropriately. Not that the individual Greek was a loser, but that their society and government were essentially such a trainwreck at this point in time that it's very difficult to actually resist a determined foreign opposition as the Ottomans proved. There is a limit to what individuals and small groups could do. You need a degree of social/state cohesion and organization to resist. Which is why with the right amount of incentives,skill and the ability to smash the opposition, you can likely do a reconciliation. It's not like there weren't people supporting reconciliation either.It was legitimately a movement during this period.

Tbf we know the Lascarids were doing a different thing than that, and considering they would actively alter the social structure they take over I think it'd work. Especially as we know Alexandros is following under the footsteps of his father and brother in terms of governing. Using conquest of new areas to deal with the undesirables is a very viable option too, and I don't think the Vatatzes won't do that. And it's that they don't gain much from reconsilation at this point too. They'd gain from it in the future tho so it's not Alexandros' problem. I do think if they tried they would succeed, but I think the only way this would happen is that the Ottomans take over Constantinople (which I would enjoy as we would see Greek civilisation's heartlands move west back to old Hellas and Italy) and that Hungary is a problem. If Lascaris writes that the descendants of Alexandros conquers Constantinople before 1600 there's no point in reconsilation.

 

[Avrorrange]

Tbf we know the Lascarids were doing a different thing than that, and considering they would actively alter the social structure they take over I think it'd work. Especially as we know Alexandros is following under the footsteps of his father and brother in terms of governing. Using conquest of new areas to deal with the undesirables is a very viable option too, and I don't think the Vatatzes won't do that. And it's that they don't gain much from reconsilation at this point too. They'd gain from it in the future tho so it's not Alexandros' problem. I do think if they tried they would succeed, but I think the only way this would happen is that the Ottomans take over Constantinople (which I would enjoy as we would see Greek civilisation's heartlands move west back to old Hellas and Italy) and that Hungary is a problem. If Lascaris writes that the descendants of Alexandros conquers Constantinople before 1600 there's no point in reconsilation.

The main difficulty now is that a lot of Alexandros' own people are Latins, like the Sicilian barons, knights, common people, as well as the Aragonese soldiers they just imported. They have some Greek population back in Italy yes, but you also need to appease these people as well so you've got to grant these people new land in Greece. You can't just deal with the Greek nobles and give land exclusively to your Greek followers. You've gotta deal with your Latin followers as well in an even hand to retain their respect, more so if the Vatatzes were to take over the entirety of both Sicilies. At which point in time you've gotta ask yourself how to deal with the impending hot mess that is the division in your people. This is a house-divided kind of situation. That is not getting into the hot mess back in Southern Italy with the popes and foreign monarchs.You need to come up with a compromise that accommodates both people not just one. In which case ‘reconciliation’ as one poster puts it is the best appropriate solution. Otherwise you will have one side of the Adriatic burning.

 

[Quinkana]

The main difficulty now is that a lot of Alexandros' own people are Latins, like the Sicilian barons, knights, common people, as well as the Aragonese soldiers they just imported. They have some Greek population back in Italy yes, but you also need to appease these people as well so you've got to grant these people new land in Greece. You can't just deal with the Greek nobles and give land exclusively to your Greek followers. You've gotta deal with your Latin followers as well in an even hand to retain their respect, more so if the Vatatzes were to take over the entirety of both Sicilies. At which point in time you've gotta ask yourself how to deal with the impending hot mess that is the division in your people. This is a house-divided kind of situation. That is not getting into the hot mess back in Southern Italy with the popes and foreign monarchs.

At this point I think the regions Alexandros holds are still majority greek, and considering Calabria still has a substantial greek minority otl (and prob would be the majority at that point in time) and that their Romance speaking neighbours were also familiar with the language the switch to using greek as the administrative language won't be problematic and Alexandros' policies should be beneficial to the catholic and latin speaking common peasantry too, so he'd be fine in that aspect. As long as Alexandros protects the rights of the catholic citizens in his rule I don't think there'd be a problem. We also know that the greeks from Asia Minor would be migrating to Alexandros, bolstering the numbers of Greeks in Alexandros' hands, and considering the chaos that was about to come (and I don't think Alexandros' holdings in Greece would be enough) a lot would move to Italy, and considering that being under an orthodox and Greek lord is an important consideration I think a lot of Greeks would move to southern italy under these circumstances, especially the less well off ppl who knows that they will be well treated and not have to convert to catholicism. keeping the orthodox card is good for the short to middle term at least.

Tldr: the catholics in the whole of Sicily are still excommunicated by the pope so unless Alexandros pisses them off by not protecting them it wouldn't matter. Using the orthodox and greek card to settle migrating greeks that are escaping the fall of the ERE is mightily beneficial too and bolsters the greek speaking population in southern Italy.

PS I'd like to see how does messina develop ittl. I think it would be a great area as a capital, and if it also pulls on Reggio Calabria it'd be a city that could pull Alexandros' domains together. Catania would also be a good place for a capital for Alexandros even though it is less strategic, but there would be enough space for it to grow to be the biggest city in sicily too I think, especially if a lot of greek intelligentsia move in after things get bad.

 

[Avrorrange]

At this point I think the regions Alexandros holds are still majority greek, and considering Calabria still has a substantial greek minority otl (and prob would be the majority at that point in time) and that their Romance speaking neighbours were also familiar with the language the switch to using greek as the administrative language won't be problematic and Alexandros' policies should be beneficial to the catholic and latin speaking common peasantry too, so he'd be fine in that aspect.

Considering one of the admin languages of the Kingdom of Sicily was actually Greek, I don’t see a problem with that.

As long as Alexandros protects the rights of the catholic citizens in his rule I don't think there'd be a problem. We also know that the greeks from Asia Minor would be migrating to Alexandros, bolstering the numbers of Greeks in Alexandros' hands, and considering the chaos that was about to come (and I don't think Alexandros' holdings in Greece would be enough) a lot would move to Italy, and considering that being under an orthodox and Greek lord is an important consideration I think a lot of Greeks would move to southern italy under these circumstances, especially the less well off ppl who knows that they will be well treated and not have to convert to catholicism. keeping the orthodox card is good for the short to middle term at least.

Tldr: the catholics in the whole of Sicily are still excommunicated by the pope so unless Alexandros pisses them off by not protecting them it wouldn't matter. Using the orthodox and greek card to settle migrating greeks that are escaping the fall of the ERE is mightily beneficial too and bolsters the greek speaking population in southern Italy.

Maybe if they are stuck to Sicily only. It will definitely be a problem if the Vatazes expands into Naples. I am also under the impression that the excommunication has been lifted on the Sicilians as a result of the Peace of Caltabellota, and at any rate, taking either the entirety of Sicily itself or Naples should automatically make the Catholics a majority in the Vatazes realm. On another note, I was also under the impression that a lot of the Greek speaking population in Southern Italy/Sicily were in fact under the Latin rite/leadership at this point in time.

On a practical level though if it is ‘reconciliation’ as we discussed earlier like acknowledging papal supremacy but leaving everything else unchanged, it shouldn’t really be that disruptive to your normal Greek. The Avignon captivity is an opportune moment to get a deal that strongly favours the Orthodox side of the church.For propaganda purposes, you could still claim that you are ‘orthodox’ to these people. It’s not like a lot of Greeks didn’t find Catholicism preferable to Islam and chaos IOTL either. There was strong migration to Italy in this period of time despite the difference in church.

PS I'd like to see how does messina develop ittl. I think it would be a great area as a capital, and if it also pulls on Reggio Calabria it'd be a city that could pull Alexandros' domains together. Catania would also be a good place for a capital for Alexandros even though it is less strategic, but there would be enough space for it to grow to be the biggest city in sicily too I think, especially if a lot of greek intelligentsia move in after things get bad.

Definitely interesting. I think it will be capital for the next few decades.

 

[Quinkana]

Maybe if they are stuck to Sicily only. It will definitely be a problem if the Vatazes expands into Naples. I am also under the impression that the excommunication has been lifted on the Sicilians as a result of the Peace of Caltabellota, and at any rate, taking either the entirety of Sicily itself or Naples should automatically make the Catholics a majority in the Vatazes realm. On another note, I was also under the impression that a lot of the Greek speaking population in Southern Italy/Sicily were in fact under the Latin rite/leadership at this point in time.

tbf you're right the excommunication should have been lifted? But the greeks in Italy should be under the Byzantine rite right?

 

[Avrorrange]

tbf you're right the excommunication should have been lifted? But the greeks in Italy should be under the Byzantine rite right?

As per the wiki page on the Grikos, it’s a mixed bag at best, and that is talking about the situation in the 1000s. They should be fully under the Catholic church for quite a while now even if they still use the Byzantine Rite.

Griko people - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Quinkana]

As per the wiki page on the Grikos, it’s a mixed bag at best, and that is talking about the situation in the 1000s. They should be fully under the Catholic church for quite a while now even if they still use the Byzantine Rite.

Griko people - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yeah that makes sense, but I'd think even if they're catholic they'd be under the Byzantine rite, and they also have been shown to prefer a Greek lord who is orthodox than not. It's that there's no need for Alexandros himself to change faiths for now. A lot of his legitimacy comes from generals who fled the ERE just like him, and him being orthodox is a significant part of his legacy too, which is why the lascarid loyalists are moving in the first place, which are important sources of loyalty for him. Alexandros also has been shown to dislike the uniate church (in the early chapters), so if anything it'd not be him that switches.

 

[Avrorrange]

Yeah that makes sense, but I'd think even if they're catholic they'd be under the Byzantine rite, and they also have been shown to prefer a Greek lord who is orthodox than not. It's that there's no need for Alexandros himself to change faiths for now. A lot of his legitimacy comes from generals who fled the ERE just like him, and him being orthodox is a significant part of his legacy too, which is why the lascarid loyalists are moving in the first place, which are important sources of loyalty for him. Alexandros also has been shown to dislike the uniate church (in the early chapters), so if anything it'd not be him that switches.

The deal with Alexandros was that he was not in charge of a tough situation in earlier chapters.It’s one thing to say screw the Catholic church when you are just a general under a ruler who was stressed to get Western support for a failing state and another to be a ruler over a state where the majority of people are Catholics, even the Greeks under it. It’s gonna be a VERY tough balancing act. Ideally, if he says that he’s a unionist, it at least gives him cover to either side of the church without firm commitments to the extremists of either side. Could potentially allow him to appear Catholic to the Catholics and Orthodox to the Orthodox, which allows him to confound his detractors. Either way, it’s not a long term solution. He only dodged the question so far because the French were enemies to everyone. His enemies(Frederick and Charles) will probably raise questions about his faith in order to covertly undermine him.Whatever he chooses, I think there should be VERY REAL consequences.

 

[Quinkana]

The deal with Alexandros was that he was not in charge of a tough situation in earlier chapters.It’s one thing to say screw the Catholic church when you are just a general under a ruler who was stressed to get Western support for a failing state and another to be a ruler over a state where the majority of people are Catholics, even the Greeks under it. It’s gonna be a VERY tough balancing act. Ideally, if he says that he’s a unionist, it at least gives him cover to either side of the church without firm commitments to the extremists of either side. Could potentially allow him to appear Catholic to the Catholics and Orthodox to the Orthodox, which allows him to confound his detractors. Either way, it’s not a long term solution. He only dodged the question so far because the French were enemies to everyone. His enemies(Frederick and Charles) will probably raise questions about his faith in order to covertly undermine him.Whatever he chooses, I think there should be VERY REAL consequences.

tbf true, but idk what Lascaris wants to bring this to, and I can see both sides of the argument. I do think he'd do it if he thinks he'll benefit from it more than he loses, like saying that he's only converting to the byzantine rite or something.

 

[Avrorrange]

tbf true, but idk what Lascaris wants to bring this to, and I can see both sides of the argument. I do think he'd do it if he thinks he'll benefit from it more than he loses, like saying that he's only converting to the byzantine rite or something.

Which is the compromise solution I was suggesting. Negotiate with pope to acknowledge his leadership but also leave the Orthodox church highly autonamous with their own rites.

 

[Quinkana]

Which is the compromise solution I was suggesting. Negotiate with pope to acknowledge his leadership but also leave the Orthodox church highly autonamous with their own rites.

ye that makes sense, but idk when he'd do it, tbf only Lascaris knows lmao.

 

[Lascaris]

The main difficulty now is that a lot of Alexandros' own people are Latins, like the Sicilian barons, knights, common people, as well as the Aragonese soldiers they just imported. They have some Greek population back in Italy yes, but you also need to appease these people as well so you've got to grant these people new land in Greece. You can't just deal with the Greek nobles and give land exclusively to your Greek followers. You've gotta deal with your Latin followers as well in an even hand to retain their respect, more so if the Vatatzes were to take over the entirety of both Sicilies. At which point in time you've gotta ask yourself how to deal with the impending hot mess that is the division in your people. This is a house-divided kind of situation. That is not getting into the hot mess back in Southern Italy with the popes and foreign monarchs.You need to come up with a compromise that accommodates both people not just one. In which case ‘reconciliation’ as one poster puts it is the best appropriate solution. Otherwise you will have one side of the Adriatic burning.

Minor or not so minor caveat. The grand majority of the Sicilian barons were in the interior of the island and Val di Mazzara in particular. Vatatzes Sicily is a strip of land in the east of the island in Val Demone and Val de Noto that in OTL was part of the royal demense and the queens camara reginale. Why is this important? To quote from Backman's The Decline and Fall of Medieval Sicily.

"In addition although it was not strictly part of the demesne - Frederick's queen Eleanor held an extensive independent apanage known as the camera reginale, which she administered with her own corps of officials; located in the Val di Noto, its most important component was the city of Siracusa, but it included Francavilla, Lentini, Mineo, and Vizzini as well. This camera grew rapidly in the 1320s and 1330s and became a favorite resettlement site for immigrants from the Val di Mazara, owing to certain tax dvantages it enjoyed but above all due to the relative absence of baronial influence there. Whether as part of the king's demesne or as subjects to the queen's administration, well over 50 percent of the total population of Sicily lived within sixteen kilometers (ten miles) of the coastline at the start of Frederick's reign; and the urban segment of the population increased proportionally as the overall population declined. Thus if we consider the demesne in the broadest context — that is, as all the sites under royal control, whether that meant the king or the queen - it is likely that from 1325 onward as many as two-thirds of all Sicilians inhabited the crown's territories and paid taxes to the royal fisc."

So sure Alexandros may have a variety of challenges. Barons within his own territory less so at the moment, since the territory that became the despotate in 1282 was for the most part small landholders and royal land. Barons in general if Frederick III follows down on his OTL path of effectively letting them run amok, with ever increasing leeway given to them with every passing year is an entirely different matter.

Post that, what's the likely ethnic composition of the despotate? Calabria was of course the place with the strongest Greek presence in Italy. In Sicily back in the 12th century about a third of the Sicilian population was still Greek, with the grand majority in the areas held by the despotate. It start coming under increasing pressure in the 13th century, and afterwards but in the 17th century you still had 18 communes exclusicely speaking Greek in addition to dual speakers in the island and in the 14th still a third of all priests in Messina are Greek despite the pressure under both Angevins and the house of Aragon. So I'd say that at the time of the vespers the Greek population of the island was in the 18-24% range. Which means the despotate's Sicilian population is roughly 60-80% Italo-Greeks in 1282. Lets stick to the lower figure for plausibility's shake.

 

[Avrorrange]

Minor or not so minor caveat. The grand majority of the Sicilian barons were in the interior of the island and Val di Mazzara in particular. Vatatzes Sicily is a strip of land in the east of the island in Val Demone and Val de Noto that in OTL was part of the royal demense and the queens camara reginale. Why is this important? To quote from Backman's The Decline and Fall of Medieval Sicily.

"In addition although it was not strictly part of the demesne - Frederick's queen Eleanor held an extensive independent apanage known as the camera reginale, which she administered with her own corps of officials; located in the Val di Noto, its most important component was the city of Siracusa, but it included Francavilla, Lentini, Mineo, and Vizzini as well. This camera grew rapidly in the 1320s and 1330s and became a favorite resettlement site for immigrants from the Val di Mazara, owing to certain tax dvantages it enjoyed but above all due to the relative absence of baronial influence there. Whether as part of the king's demesne or as subjects to the queen's administration, well over 50 percent of the total population of Sicily lived within sixteen kilometers (ten miles) of the coastline at the start of Frederick's reign; and the urban segment of the population increased proportionally as the overall population declined. Thus if we consider the demesne in the broadest context — that is, as all the sites under royal control, whether that meant the king or the queen - it is likely that from 1325 onward as many as two-thirds of all Sicilians inhabited the crown's territories and paid taxes to the royal fisc."

So sure Alexandros may have a variety of challenges. Barons within his own territory less so at the moment, since the territory that became the despotate in 1282 was for the most part small landholders and royal land. Barons in general if Frederick III follows down on his OTL path of effectively letting them run amok, with ever increasing leeway given to them with every passing year is an entirely different matter.

Post that, what's the likely ethnic composition of the despotate? Calabria was of course the place with the strongest Greek presence in Italy. In Sicily back in the 12th century about a third of the Sicilian population was still Greek, with the grand majority in the areas held by the despotate. It start coming under increasing pressure in the 13th century, and afterwards but in the 17th century you still had 18 communes exclusicely speaking Greek in addition to dual speakers in the island and in the 14th still a third of all priests in Messina are Greek despite the pressure under both Angevins and the house of Aragon. So I'd say that at the time of the vespers the Greek population of the island was in the 18-24% range. Which means the despotate's Sicilian population is roughly 60-80% Italo-Greeks in 1282. Lets stick to the lower figure for plausibility's shake.

Really informative post.Question is whether those Greek priests and Greeks are under the Catholic church or the Orthodox Church.Because implication is that they use the Greek rite but are under the Catholic Church or outright used the Latin rite.

Regarding the Barons, is the makeup of Calabria also similar to the North East of Sicily?

 

[Quinkana]

Post that, what's the likely ethnic composition of the despotate? Calabria was of course the place with the strongest Greek presence in Italy. In Sicily back in the 12th century about a third of the Sicilian population was still Greek, with the grand majority in the areas held by the despotate. It start coming under increasing pressure in the 13th century, and afterwards but in the 17th century you still had 18 communes exclusicely speaking Greek in addition to dual speakers in the island and in the 14th still a third of all priests in Messina are Greek despite the pressure under both Angevins and the house of Aragon. So I'd say that at the time of the vespers the Greek population of the island was in the 18-24% range. Which means the despotate's Sicilian population is roughly 60-80% Italo-Greeks in 1282. Lets stick to the lower figure for plausibility's shake.

So basically Syracuse and co. would get more immigration from the rest of Sicily? Jeez that'd be a lot of ppl in the Despotate, and I think it'd be interesting how Alexandros' lands develop in his hands. I feel his lands would be the most well governed in Sicily at least, and I think he eventually could be able to fight the kings in Southern Italy.

I also think eventually Southern Italy would be colonised by fleeing Greeks searching to run away from the Ottomans, and there's no way the lands of Alexandros aren't a good destination for them, especially as most of Greece eventually gets taken by the various polities around the ERE, and there's no way Alexandros won't welcome them and settle them as loyal subjects to him who know that he's the best choice for them. Adding the fact that the Sicilians and Neapolitans won't dislike Greek as an administrative language I could see Greek replacing the Romance languages in Southern Italy like how France overtook Occitan.

PS: what about gunpowder? Considering that gunpowder sweeps through Europe about two decades later, it'd be interesting how Alexandros and his descendants incorporates gunpowder into his armies.

 

[Quinkana]

The city had been on the verge of panic at the news of the defeat of Cape Orlando. And then the survivors of the Sicilian fleet, 30 Despotate galleys, a third of them Messinese and 21 from the rest of Sicily reached the port with both the kind and the despot aboard. Desperation turned to joy, despite the defeat not all was lost. And this in turn into grim determination and a desire for revenge when the news that Roger de Lauria had massacred the Messinese and Greek crews of the galleys he had captured in revenge for the execution of John Lauria spread in the city and the crews.

I assume that it means king plz fix it.

Currently rereading through it, so yeah.

 

[X Oristos]

A few conjectures on the potential post-war developments of both the Despotate and Royal Sicily.

From different mentions in the story we know that Alexandros is applying lascarid policies in his domain. It has been mentioned already the protection the Lascarids extended to smallholders and in general free farmers. There is an another aspect of the lascarid economic policy: protectionism. Vatatzes was very actively trying to develop the local industry and protect it from imports. He had banned the importation of luxury textiles in order to boost nicaean production and it is possible that he was trying to strangle the export of raw silk.

East Sicily and Calabria have not been separated as in OTL and they form a single political entity (de facto at least since not de jure). Both places had been major producers of raw silk in the past. They have lots of highlands and uplands that are grazed by flocks of sheep. Calabria receives a lot of rainfall and Val Demone receives more than the rest of Sicily. Calabria is ideal to establish watermills for wool production, even Messina with Alcantare river. When it comes to mineral resources, other than the calabrian silver that has already been mentioned, the province has respectable iron resources and there is some alum around Etna. Basically, the Despotate has everything needed for woolen textile production: wool, alum and water power.

Messina even under Frederick was famed for its ship-building, now the city has access to the calabrian forests. In OTL sailors, ships and shipbuilders left the city after the War of the Vespers to find employment elsewhere. Now, with a more robust industry and opportunities in Morea, there are less chances for losing such valuable human capital.

Even during the stagnation and decline of OTL frederickian Sicily, the east had a more diversified economy and attracted skilled and unskilled labor from the west, often fleeing rapacious barons and their feuds. What about now though? Frederick has a much smaller royal demesne from the very beginning. He has been much more dependent upon the barons. So, ever since his coronation, realistically there were only two options: parcel the royal demesne in the west in exchange for political support or give more autonomy and privileges to the upland barons than OTL. In either case, he accelerates the OTL development, with barons being unchecked and starting long series of petty wars and vendettas between them. The OTL exodus of the peasantry to the cities and to the east will accelerate as well.

What about the Palermitans though? Even in OTL the Val Demone and Val di Noto cities were more prosperous, now the differences will be much starker. They would envy the privileges of Messina but it would be very difficult to extract such privileges from Frederick: he needs to have Palermo in a tight fiscal and administrative leash if he wants to be a peer to Alexandros. Then, when Emperor Henry descents, he will throw his lot with the Ghibellines and be an enemy of the Guelph cities that were the major trade partners of Palermo. Not to mention that famine will arrive at the same time.

Last but not least, what about the personal development of our protagonists? In OTL post-war Frederick was full of evangelical fervor, considering himself a God-elect King who would cleanse Christendom from herecy (uncomfortable looks from Syracuse) and embark upon a Crusade. What about Alexandros though? The author told us that his mother made sure to know two things: that he was the brother, son and grandson of Emperors, that his grandfather was the stupor mundi and that he lived as long as Michael did not considered him a threat. Now he is middle-aged, spent twenty years fighting and another man is at his grandfather's palace in Palermo and he doesn't have a crown of his own. Despite his talents, prowess and long struggle, he is still somewhat under the thumb of other men - at least officially. He had respect for Charless the Lame, he might have respect for Robert, but what about Frederick - being full of bravado, evangelical fervor and mismanaging his realm?

 

[Quinkana]

East Sicily and Calabria have not been separated as in OTL and they form a single political entity (de facto at least since not de jure). Both places had been major producers of raw silk in the past. They have lots of highlands and uplands that are grazed by flocks of sheep. Calabria receives a lot of rainfall and Val Demone receives more than the rest of Sicily. Calabria is ideal to establish watermills for wool production, even Messina with Alcantare river. When it comes to mineral resources, other than the calabrian silver that has already been mentioned, the province has respectable iron resources and there is some alum around Etna. Basically, the Despotate has everything needed for woolen textile production: wool, alum and water power.

I want to add that Morea is a famed silk rearing region too (the name may have come from the Greek name for mulberries), and he'd build quite a lot of wealth from these enterprises. Considering Venice mostly trades in the same seas ittl the two sides will come to conflict. We probably should see the Vatatzes ally against Venice (Genoa for example) and try strengthen their fleets.

Messina even under Frederick was famed for its ship-building, now the city has access to the calabrian forests. In OTL sailors, ships and shipbuilders left the city after the War of the Vespers to find employment elsewhere. Now, with a more robust industry and opportunities in Morea, there are less chances for losing such valuable human capital.

Tbf I see Reggio Calabria becoming a larger city and much more connected to Messina than otl as they feed into each other, and that could only be a good thing.

Even during the stagnation and decline of OTL frederickian Sicily, the east had a more diversified economy and attracted skilled and unskilled labor from the west, often fleeing rapacious barons and their feuds. What about now though? Frederick has a much smaller royal demesne from the very beginning. He has been much more dependent upon the barons. So, ever since his coronation, realistically there were only two options: parcel the royal demesne in the west in exchange for political support or give more autonomy and privileges to the upland barons than OTL. In either case, he accelerates the OTL development, with barons being unchecked and starting long series of petty wars and vendettas between them. The OTL exodus of the peasantry to the cities and to the east will accelerate as well.

What about the Palermitans though? Even in OTL the Val Demone and Val di Noto cities was more prosperous, now the differences will be much starker. They would envy the privileges of Messina but it would be very difficult to extract such privileges from Frederick: he needs to have Palermo in a tight fiscal and administrative leash if he wants to be a peer to Alexandros. Then, when Emperor Henry descents, he will throw his lot with the Ghibellines and be an enemy of the Guelph cities that were the major trade partners of Palermo. Not to mention that famine will arrive at the same time.

Tbf I think Frederickian Sicily will break down faster than otl with him giving more control to the barons, which makes the barons fight each other and hurt each other more. That's good for Alexandros as it breaks down the state Frederick is trying to build, isn't it? The power and prosperity of Messina, Reggio Calabria, Catania and Syracuse would rankle the ppl of Palmero too, and they could do nothing about it as Alexandros accrues wealth from his sources of income. Also as Frederick causes problems in due to allying with Emperor Henry Alexandros probably would be neutral and reap the benefits from doing so, which would increase the population in his lands in the expense of the ppl in the west of Sicily.

Now he is middle-aged, spent twenty years fighting and another man is at his grandfather's palace in Palermo and he doesn't have a crown of his own. Despite his talents, prowess and long struggle, he is still somewhat under the thumb of other men - at least officially. He had respect for Charless the Lame, he might have respect for Robert, but what about Frederick - being full of bravado, evangelical fervor and mismanaging his realm?

There is a big possibility that Frederick or his son gets kicked off the throne by alexandros or the next ruler of the despotate especially as civil war in the kingdom of Sicily rages on.

 

[Nuraghe]

being descendants of the houfenstaufen dinasty they cannot aim to claim their ancestor territories in Swabia or try to make an agreement for a second birth land in the HRE ( simil habsburg ) so we also solve the religious problem (the main Greek Orthodox branch for the Roman empire, other of the Latin rite for the territories Romance-speaking Westerner and perhaps attempting for a fiefdom in Ghibelline Italy or so as to rescue Romance speaking Christians in Tunisia (an attempt to resurrect the Norman kingdom of Africa, or perhaps this suits their Aragonese cousins more) how they will behave with the papacy, will they approve of the position and actions of France against the holy see or fearing that the Capets will help their Angevin cousins will side against the Avignonese papacy ?

 

[Lascaris]

A few conjectures on the potential post-war developments of both the Despotate and Royal Sicily.

From different mentions in the story we know that Alexandros is applying lascarid policies in his domain. It has been mentioned already the protection the Lascarids extended to smallholders and in general free farmers. There is an another aspect of the lascarid economic policy: protectionism. Vatatzes was very actively trying to develop the local industry and protect it from imports. He had banned the importation of luxury textiles in order to boost nicaean production and it is possible that he was trying to strangle the export of raw silk.

He is applying Lascarid policies. First it's logical that even though his father and elder brother died early he will be under the influence his family's traditions, he is raised in their household, or what Anna inherited from it. Second his main Eastern Greek supporters expect him to, these are Lascarid loyalists. Third it makes sense in Sicily and Calabria to do so. Who is likely and who is not likely to support Alexandros when he parachutes himself into Sicilian politics? Not the barons, nor the papist/Angevin loyalists in the upper clergy. The free-peasants and smallholders, the city communes and what remains of the Greek service aristocracy from Norman times. Which is tailor made for the Lascarid Nicean playbook.

East Sicily and Calabria have not been separated as in OTL and they form a single political entity (de facto at least since not de jure). Both places had been major producers of raw silk in the past. They have lots of highlands and uplands that are grazed by flocks of sheep. Calabria receives a lot of rainfall and Val Demone receives more than the rest of Sicily. Calabria is ideal to establish watermills for wool production, even Messina with Alcantare river. When it comes to mineral resources, other than the calabrian silver that has already been mentioned, the province has respectable iron resources and there is some alum around Etna. Basically, the Despotate has everything needed for woolen textile production: wool, alum and water power.

In Calabria also lead and mercury, the cinnabar mines are in use since the neolithic. And in eastern Sicily sulphur and asphalt as well.

Messina even under Frederick was famed for its ship-building, now the city has access to the calabrian forests. In OTL sailors, ships and shipbuilders left the city after the War of the Vespers to find employment elsewhere. Now, with a more robust industry and opportunities in Morea, there are less chances for losing such valuable human capital.

House Vatatzes would certainly be loath to let this happen. Not least since Messina was the center of Greek Sicily in the era, besides being the largest city in the despotate. Syracuse may be capital, not least due to chance in the original takeover by Alexandros and on account of its defensibility but Messina is economically much more important.

Even during the stagnation and decline of OTL frederickian Sicily, the east had a more diversified economy and attracted skilled and unskilled labor from the west, often fleeing rapacious barons and their feuds. What about now though? Frederick has a much smaller royal demesne from the very beginning. He has been much more dependent upon the barons. So, ever since his coronation, realistically there were only two options: parcel the royal demesne in the west in exchange for political support or give more autonomy and privileges to the upland barons than OTL. In either case, he accelerates the OTL development, with barons being unchecked and starting long series of petty wars and vendettas between them. The OTL exodus of the peasantry to the cities and to the east will accelerate as well.

What about the Palermitans though? Even in OTL the Val Demone and Val di Noto cities were more prosperous, now the differences will be much starker. They would envy the privileges of Messina but it would be very difficult to extract such privileges from Frederick: he needs to have Palermo in a tight fiscal and administrative leash if he wants to be a peer to Alexandros. Then, when Emperor Henry descents, he will throw his lot with the Ghibellines and be an enemy of the Guelph cities that were the major trade partners of Palermo. Not to mention that famine will arrive at the same time.

The east also happened to be largely royal demenses and smallholders. TTL Frederick does run two thirds of Sicily directly. How wel he'd do so given his proclivities in OTL is something of an open question. But one notes that the combination of his policies and the black death ended up with the population of Sicily dropping by two thirds. So affecting the demographic evolution of the island potentially could have major effects.

Last but not least, what about the personal development of our protagonists? In OTL post-war Frederick was full of evangelical fervor, considering himself a God-elect King who would cleanse Christendom from herecy (uncomfortable looks from Syracuse) and embark upon a Crusade. What about Alexandros though? The author told us that his mother made sure to know two things: that he was the brother, son and grandson of Emperors, that his grandfather was the stupor mundi and that he lived as long as Michael did not considered him a threat. Now he is middle-aged, spent twenty years fighting and another man is at his grandfather's palace in Palermo and he doesn't have a crown of his own. Despite his talents, prowess and long struggle, he is still somewhat under the thumb of other men - at least officially. He had respect for Charless the Lame, he might have respect for Robert, but what about Frederick - being full of bravado, evangelical fervor and mismanaging his realm?

I'm inclined to call him a more calculating and diplomatic version of his brother, he was raised in a much more difficult environment after all. And to remember Napoleon about his marshals... lucky of course. What this means for his relation with Frederick... Constance II was his first cousin which makes Frederick his nephew. Given he is personally loyal to his own, as seen by extricating Philanthropenos or for that matter the fate of Lauria, there is a good question on how he viewed leaving Calabria out of the treaty, though leavig Calabria out in OTL did not stop the Sicilians from refusing to remove their garrisons actually in Sicily, so a degree of subtlety can be expected here. The other interesting question is how Frederick views his Greek uncle. After all he had a fair degree of hero worship for his father and said father famously or infamously told Constance that her plans for marrying their daughter to Andronicus II would be demeaning to the house of Barcelona.