I'm sorry if this will sound harsh, but this reply makes absolutels no sense if you consider the fact that this thread already has several pages of discussion. How on Earth can that be reconciled with "no one is interested"?
The Eagle Never Fails TL: Prussia loses the War of Austrian Succession
- Thread starter Gwrtheyrn Annwn
- Start date
I'm sorry if this will sound harsh, but this reply makes absolutels no sense if you consider the fact that this thread already has several pages of discussion. How on Earth can that be reconciled with "no one is interested"?
Seconded - no comments often are a sign that the TL is doing well. Comments are made usually if someone "disagrees" 
Yeah, OK fair enough.
Will be up today.Most of us are just waiting for the next update
Thanks for that, I hadn't realized that that was the case.Seconded - no comments often are a sign that the TL is doing well. Comments are made usually if someone "disagrees"
Here we go the next update:
Part 3: The Prusso-Saxony War 1747-1749
Frederick II, driven slightly mad following his capture and bolstered by his alliance with Britain was desperate to regain his lost territories. So he set his sights of Saxony. To do this he managed to convince Karl Albrecht of Bavaria to ally with him in exchange for territory in southern Saxony. Karl Albrecht was unsurprisingly unconvinced by Frederick II, but decided to send a few thousand troops and see if anything could be gained.
On 21st July 1746 Prussia declared war on and invaded Saxony. Bavaria, half-heartedly followed suit on the 24th July. Things initially went well for Prussia with the main army defeating the Saxon army outside Wittenburg on the 25th July and the capture of the cities of Wittenburg, Lubben, Krossen and Zullichau (the latter two gained by Saxony following the Silesian War). However in southern Saxony the small Bavarian force was crushed. Then something not anticipated by Freidrich II happened, Austria sided with Saxony-Poland. A large Polish force invaded East Prussia and fought the garrison force of Konigsburg and won, but suffered heavy losses.
On 1st August Austrian forces under Neipperg, the hero of the Silesian War, entered Bavaria and defeated the Bavarian army outside Munich. They then besieged the city, with Prince-Elector Charles Albert trapped inside. Realising the desperation of his situation Charles Albert surrender less than a fortnight later on the 12th August. The Treaty of Munich was signed by Charles Albert and Maria Theresa, forbidding Bavaria to ever ally with Austrian enemies again, on the 14th August.
Meanwhile Prussia was having a mixed war. In Saxony the highly disciplined armies were defeating Saxon forces in battle after battle and by October Prussia controlled half of the country, whilst in East Prussia Polish forces had occupied the province by mid-November, having defeated the Prussian armies with numbers not tactics.
Thus began the Long Year, the period from December 1748 - December 1749, in which Austrian, Saxon and Polish forces push back the Prussians.
To be continued…
Part 3: The Prusso-Saxony War 1747-1749
Frederick II, driven slightly mad following his capture and bolstered by his alliance with Britain was desperate to regain his lost territories. So he set his sights of Saxony. To do this he managed to convince Karl Albrecht of Bavaria to ally with him in exchange for territory in southern Saxony. Karl Albrecht was unsurprisingly unconvinced by Frederick II, but decided to send a few thousand troops and see if anything could be gained.
On 21st July 1746 Prussia declared war on and invaded Saxony. Bavaria, half-heartedly followed suit on the 24th July. Things initially went well for Prussia with the main army defeating the Saxon army outside Wittenburg on the 25th July and the capture of the cities of Wittenburg, Lubben, Krossen and Zullichau (the latter two gained by Saxony following the Silesian War). However in southern Saxony the small Bavarian force was crushed. Then something not anticipated by Freidrich II happened, Austria sided with Saxony-Poland. A large Polish force invaded East Prussia and fought the garrison force of Konigsburg and won, but suffered heavy losses.
On 1st August Austrian forces under Neipperg, the hero of the Silesian War, entered Bavaria and defeated the Bavarian army outside Munich. They then besieged the city, with Prince-Elector Charles Albert trapped inside. Realising the desperation of his situation Charles Albert surrender less than a fortnight later on the 12th August. The Treaty of Munich was signed by Charles Albert and Maria Theresa, forbidding Bavaria to ever ally with Austrian enemies again, on the 14th August.
Meanwhile Prussia was having a mixed war. In Saxony the highly disciplined armies were defeating Saxon forces in battle after battle and by October Prussia controlled half of the country, whilst in East Prussia Polish forces had occupied the province by mid-November, having defeated the Prussian armies with numbers not tactics.
Thus began the Long Year, the period from December 1748 - December 1749, in which Austrian, Saxon and Polish forces push back the Prussians.
To be continued…
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Boor Bavarians - I think Russia could/schould intervene on Friedrichs behalf - after all Austria MUST not become too powerful...
Part 3 continued:
With it's only, albeit reluctant, ally subdued and fighting on 2 fronts Prussia was in a bad way.
Despite this, Prussia continued to defeat the Saxon forces, most notably at the Battle of Dresden where the Saxon army attempting to raise the siege of Dresden was slaughtered after being out-flanked and encircled by Prussian cavalry, copying the Austrian cavalry at Mollwitz.
Meanwhile the Austrians entered Prussian occupied Saxony, aiming to break through and capture the Prussian capital of Berlin. On the way the Prussian garrisons of Krossen and Zullichau were defeated and the cities returned to Saxon hands.
By October 1749 eastern Prussia (not East Prussia) was occupied by Austrian and Polish forces as shown below:
With it's only, albeit reluctant, ally subdued and fighting on 2 fronts Prussia was in a bad way.
Despite this, Prussia continued to defeat the Saxon forces, most notably at the Battle of Dresden where the Saxon army attempting to raise the siege of Dresden was slaughtered after being out-flanked and encircled by Prussian cavalry, copying the Austrian cavalry at Mollwitz.
Meanwhile the Austrians entered Prussian occupied Saxony, aiming to break through and capture the Prussian capital of Berlin. On the way the Prussian garrisons of Krossen and Zullichau were defeated and the cities returned to Saxon hands.
By October 1749 eastern Prussia (not East Prussia) was occupied by Austrian and Polish forces as shown below:
Why wouldn't Frederick anticipate that the Austrians would intervene against him? Why would he think that he was in any position to simply attack Saxony unprovoked and simply hope that he'd just be left alone to do as he liked?
Prussia has a big army, but, especially without Silesia, and having been whipped a few years before (and then, presumably, having done nothing when the Jülich-Berg succession issue came up, the thing that Frederick William I had prepared his whole reign to take action over), it's in no position to go to war on its own. Small powers, which Prussia decidedly still is at this point, have to play the alliance game. And Frederick appears to be doing it pretty poorly.
Note that by this point OTL, the Dauphin has married a Saxon princess, which would make the French unfriendly as well, if this goes through. Russia is likely also unfriendly. And the Imperial Diet would almost certainly condemn such unprincipled aggression and put the Prussians and Bavarians under the ban.
This simply doesn't make sense, especially not in response to a situation where Frederick just got his ass kicked trying to do the same thing.
Furthermore, what has happened between 1741 and 1747? Did France get into a colonial war with England, as looked likely OTL before the Austrian succession came up and swallowed it? Was there any dispute over the Jülich-Berg succession? What's happened in Russia - did Elizabeth still seize power? If so, wouldn't she also join in a war against Frederick to defend the Saxons?
I think it's much wiser to have something grow out of an Anglo-French War - perhaps Prussia takes French subsidies to invade and occupy Hanover, and finds itself embroiled in a larger war.
Prussia has a big army, but, especially without Silesia, and having been whipped a few years before (and then, presumably, having done nothing when the Jülich-Berg succession issue came up, the thing that Frederick William I had prepared his whole reign to take action over), it's in no position to go to war on its own. Small powers, which Prussia decidedly still is at this point, have to play the alliance game. And Frederick appears to be doing it pretty poorly.
Note that by this point OTL, the Dauphin has married a Saxon princess, which would make the French unfriendly as well, if this goes through. Russia is likely also unfriendly. And the Imperial Diet would almost certainly condemn such unprincipled aggression and put the Prussians and Bavarians under the ban.
This simply doesn't make sense, especially not in response to a situation where Frederick just got his ass kicked trying to do the same thing.
Furthermore, what has happened between 1741 and 1747? Did France get into a colonial war with England, as looked likely OTL before the Austrian succession came up and swallowed it? Was there any dispute over the Jülich-Berg succession? What's happened in Russia - did Elizabeth still seize power? If so, wouldn't she also join in a war against Frederick to defend the Saxons?
I think it's much wiser to have something grow out of an Anglo-French War - perhaps Prussia takes French subsidies to invade and occupy Hanover, and finds itself embroiled in a larger war.
OK, I will resolve all the non-Austrian events in an interlude, right after the Prusso-Saxony War. In regards to that war, you are correct Prussia would be extremely foolish to attack Saxony unprovoked, but that is how history works it very oftern makes no sense. Also Frederick has effectively gone mad following his capture and brief imprisonment in Austria.
Thanks mate.
I see that you're new to this site, if there is anything I can help you with then feel free to send me a PM. I'm not sure. that history frequently makes no sense. In general you can at least discern what people were trying to accomplish, even their actions were not well-suited to accomplish those goals. This feels particularly ill-motivated.
If Frederick is humiliated in his first war, isn't it just as likely that he turns his back on military matters entirely, and spends his time promoting culture? That's what people thought him likely to do before he took the throne.
Maybe this is just an aesthetic issue here. I don't really care for timelines where the author is tipping his thumb on the scale. (Which is, admittedly, most timelines). I like the idea of exploring the consequences of a Prussian defeat at Mollwitz. I'm not terribly interested in whether "the Eagle never fails," or, more broadly, using a POD to create a pre-determined series of events that leads to one's favorite country staying around forever and ruling everything. But maybe that's just me, since most TLs here do, indeed, seem to be the latter.
Would a Prussian defeat at Mollwitz lead to a long-term/indefinite Austrian hegemony in Germany? I have no idea, really. Maybe? But getting there seems like it needs more patience, more thought to the broader ripples; more thinking "How would Frederick respond to a defeat at Mollwitz?"; less thinking "How do we get from here to the complete destruction of Prussia?"
If Frederick is humiliated in his first war, isn't it just as likely that he turns his back on military matters entirely, and spends his time promoting culture? That's what people thought him likely to do before he took the throne.
Maybe this is just an aesthetic issue here. I don't really care for timelines where the author is tipping his thumb on the scale. (Which is, admittedly, most timelines). I like the idea of exploring the consequences of a Prussian defeat at Mollwitz. I'm not terribly interested in whether "the Eagle never fails," or, more broadly, using a POD to create a pre-determined series of events that leads to one's favorite country staying around forever and ruling everything. But maybe that's just me, since most TLs here do, indeed, seem to be the latter.
Would a Prussian defeat at Mollwitz lead to a long-term/indefinite Austrian hegemony in Germany? I have no idea, really. Maybe? But getting there seems like it needs more patience, more thought to the broader ripples; more thinking "How would Frederick respond to a defeat at Mollwitz?"; less thinking "How do we get from here to the complete destruction of Prussia?"
Fair enough, if that's your personal view. But I don't intend to completely destroy Prussia and the consequences bit will come after the defeat in Prusso-Saxony War. I hope that sounds better to you.
Part 3: The Prusso-Saxony War 1745-1747
(OOC: I've put all parts of the Prusso-Saxony War together for ease of reading)
Frederick II, driven slightly mad following his capture and bolstered by his alliance with Britain was desperate to regain his lost territories. So he set his sights of Saxony. To do this he managed to convince Karl Albrecht of Bavaria to ally with him in exchange for territory in southern Saxony. Karl Albrecht was unsurprisingly unconvinced by Frederick II, but decided to send a few thousand troops and see if anything could be gained.
On 21st July 1747 Prussia declared war on and invaded Saxony. Bavaria, half-heartedly followed suit on the 24th July. Things initially went well for Prussia with the main army defeating the Saxon army outside Wittenburg on the 25th July and the capture of the cities of Wittenburg, Lubben, Krossen and Zullichau (the latter two gained by Saxony following the Silesian War). However in southern Saxony the small Bavarian force was crushed. Then something not anticipated by Freidrich II happened, Austria sided with Saxony-Poland. A large Polish force invaded East Prussia and fought the garrison force of Konigsburg and won, but suffered heavy losses.
On 1st August Austrian forces under Neipperg, the hero of the Silesian War, entered Bavaria and defeated the Bavarian army outside Munich. They then besieged the city, with Prince-Elector Charles Albert trapped inside. Realising the desperation of his situation Charles Albert surrender less than a fortnight later on the 12th August. The Treaty of Munich was signed by Charles Albert and Maria Theresa, forbidding Bavaria to ever ally with Austrian enemies again, on the 14th August.
Meanwhile Prussia was having a mixed war. In Saxony the highly disciplined armies were defeating Saxon forces in battle after battle and by October Prussia controlled half of the country, whilst in East Prussia Polish forces had occupied the province by mid-November, having defeated the Prussian armies with numbers not tactics.
Thus began the Long Year, the period from December 1748 - December 1749, in which Austrian, Saxon and Polish forces push back the Prussians.
With it's only, albeit reluctant, ally subdued and fighting on 2 fronts Prussia was in a bad way.
Despite this, Prussia continued to defeat the Saxon forces, most notably at the Battle of Dresden where the Saxon army attempting to raise the siege of Dresden was slaughtered after being out-flanked and encircled by Prussian cavalry, copying the Austrian cavalry at Mollwitz.
Meanwhile the Austrians entered Prussian occupied Saxony, aiming to break through and capture the Prussian capital of Berlin. On the way the Prussian garrisons of Krossen and Zullichau were defeated and the cities returned to Saxon hands.
With Austrian and Polish forces closing on Berlin senior nobles, including Frederick II's brother Prince Augustus William offered peace to Austria and Saxony-Poland. Under their deal Augustus William would become king of Prussia. The offer was accepted, with Austria having no interest in destroying Prussia and Prussia surrendered on 14th December 1749 and Augustus William became King Augustus William I of Prussia and also agreed/was forced to sign an alliance with Austria. Recent evidence has revealed that Russia had been gathering to invade Poland-Lithuania to support prior to the surrender.
Interlude: The Ohio Valley Indian War 1741-1743
Whilst Austria and Prussia were fighting in Europe, British and French colonial tensions flared up in the Americas. A Native American attack on a British outpost had gone badly and several Indians were captured, as they were searched French made gear was found on them. The British Governor (OOC: not sure if there were governors at this point, please point out if there weren’t) accused the French of arming the Native Americans and inciting them to attack British outposts. Understandably the French were not happy and denied all accusations. However Native American attacks continued and more French-made gear was discovered. Anti-French and Anti-Native American sentiment grew among colonials and some began to attack Native Americans within the French claims in the Ohio River Valley. As tensions escalated, Britain, unwisely, accepted an alliance request from Prussia to try and counter French influence on the continent. This obvious anti-French move further antagonised the French and on 2nd November 1744 France declared war on Britain, officially over the Ohio River Valley dispute. Because of this the war was sorely fought in the Americas. Britain’s first move was to invade French Canada and attempt to capture Loiusbourg and Quebec. The French meanwhile were gathering a force to invade the Thirteen Colonies and seize Halifax, Boston and the rest of the colony. The British army, under the command of General Forbes, entered French Canada, defeating a small French army on the border and marching towards Louisbourg. The French army seized British outposts in Ohio and assumed total control of the Ohio valley area. By this point, however, each nation had realised that that they were being invaded. The French army (which was smaller, 14 000 men, compared to 20 000 men in the British force) continued its invasion in an attempt to gain more than the British and hold a stronger negotiating positon, whilst the British army split into 2 armies numbering 10 000 each. One under Forbes pressed on towards Louisbourg, the other turned around and marched back where they had come from to fight the French. Despite this the British army reached and besieged the fort of Louisbourg, before capturing it on the 22nd December, before famously holding a Christmas banquet in the courtyard that would become known as the Louisbourg Christmas. The French forces captured Fort Necessity and were marching north to Philadelphia. The British army of 10 000 met the French army of 12 000 (2 000 men having been lost or assigned to garrison captured forts). The British were routed following several mistakes by their in-experienced commander, but managed to inflict massive losses on the French army, leaving a French army of 7 000 and a tiny British force of 2 500. The city surrendered 3 days later on the 12th January. Britain offered a status quo ante bellum peace treaty to the French, but it was rejected the French counter-offered with a treaty which would end British claims over the Ohio River Valley. Britain rejected this treaty, however, and the war eventually just ended with a white peace on the 3rd April 1745. The war didn’t officially end until May 1746 when the various Native American tribes that were being influenced by France and Britain finally agreed to a truce.
(OOC: I've put all parts of the Prusso-Saxony War together for ease of reading)
Frederick II, driven slightly mad following his capture and bolstered by his alliance with Britain was desperate to regain his lost territories. So he set his sights of Saxony. To do this he managed to convince Karl Albrecht of Bavaria to ally with him in exchange for territory in southern Saxony. Karl Albrecht was unsurprisingly unconvinced by Frederick II, but decided to send a few thousand troops and see if anything could be gained.
On 21st July 1747 Prussia declared war on and invaded Saxony. Bavaria, half-heartedly followed suit on the 24th July. Things initially went well for Prussia with the main army defeating the Saxon army outside Wittenburg on the 25th July and the capture of the cities of Wittenburg, Lubben, Krossen and Zullichau (the latter two gained by Saxony following the Silesian War). However in southern Saxony the small Bavarian force was crushed. Then something not anticipated by Freidrich II happened, Austria sided with Saxony-Poland. A large Polish force invaded East Prussia and fought the garrison force of Konigsburg and won, but suffered heavy losses.
On 1st August Austrian forces under Neipperg, the hero of the Silesian War, entered Bavaria and defeated the Bavarian army outside Munich. They then besieged the city, with Prince-Elector Charles Albert trapped inside. Realising the desperation of his situation Charles Albert surrender less than a fortnight later on the 12th August. The Treaty of Munich was signed by Charles Albert and Maria Theresa, forbidding Bavaria to ever ally with Austrian enemies again, on the 14th August.
Meanwhile Prussia was having a mixed war. In Saxony the highly disciplined armies were defeating Saxon forces in battle after battle and by October Prussia controlled half of the country, whilst in East Prussia Polish forces had occupied the province by mid-November, having defeated the Prussian armies with numbers not tactics.
Thus began the Long Year, the period from December 1748 - December 1749, in which Austrian, Saxon and Polish forces push back the Prussians.
With it's only, albeit reluctant, ally subdued and fighting on 2 fronts Prussia was in a bad way.
Despite this, Prussia continued to defeat the Saxon forces, most notably at the Battle of Dresden where the Saxon army attempting to raise the siege of Dresden was slaughtered after being out-flanked and encircled by Prussian cavalry, copying the Austrian cavalry at Mollwitz.
Meanwhile the Austrians entered Prussian occupied Saxony, aiming to break through and capture the Prussian capital of Berlin. On the way the Prussian garrisons of Krossen and Zullichau were defeated and the cities returned to Saxon hands.
With Austrian and Polish forces closing on Berlin senior nobles, including Frederick II's brother Prince Augustus William offered peace to Austria and Saxony-Poland. Under their deal Augustus William would become king of Prussia. The offer was accepted, with Austria having no interest in destroying Prussia and Prussia surrendered on 14th December 1749 and Augustus William became King Augustus William I of Prussia and also agreed/was forced to sign an alliance with Austria. Recent evidence has revealed that Russia had been gathering to invade Poland-Lithuania to support prior to the surrender.
Interlude: The Ohio Valley Indian War 1741-1743
Whilst Austria and Prussia were fighting in Europe, British and French colonial tensions flared up in the Americas. A Native American attack on a British outpost had gone badly and several Indians were captured, as they were searched French made gear was found on them. The British Governor (OOC: not sure if there were governors at this point, please point out if there weren’t) accused the French of arming the Native Americans and inciting them to attack British outposts. Understandably the French were not happy and denied all accusations. However Native American attacks continued and more French-made gear was discovered. Anti-French and Anti-Native American sentiment grew among colonials and some began to attack Native Americans within the French claims in the Ohio River Valley. As tensions escalated, Britain, unwisely, accepted an alliance request from Prussia to try and counter French influence on the continent. This obvious anti-French move further antagonised the French and on 2nd November 1744 France declared war on Britain, officially over the Ohio River Valley dispute. Because of this the war was sorely fought in the Americas. Britain’s first move was to invade French Canada and attempt to capture Loiusbourg and Quebec. The French meanwhile were gathering a force to invade the Thirteen Colonies and seize Halifax, Boston and the rest of the colony. The British army, under the command of General Forbes, entered French Canada, defeating a small French army on the border and marching towards Louisbourg. The French army seized British outposts in Ohio and assumed total control of the Ohio valley area. By this point, however, each nation had realised that that they were being invaded. The French army (which was smaller, 14 000 men, compared to 20 000 men in the British force) continued its invasion in an attempt to gain more than the British and hold a stronger negotiating positon, whilst the British army split into 2 armies numbering 10 000 each. One under Forbes pressed on towards Louisbourg, the other turned around and marched back where they had come from to fight the French. Despite this the British army reached and besieged the fort of Louisbourg, before capturing it on the 22nd December, before famously holding a Christmas banquet in the courtyard that would become known as the Louisbourg Christmas. The French forces captured Fort Necessity and were marching north to Philadelphia. The British army of 10 000 met the French army of 12 000 (2 000 men having been lost or assigned to garrison captured forts). The British were routed following several mistakes by their in-experienced commander, but managed to inflict massive losses on the French army, leaving a French army of 7 000 and a tiny British force of 2 500. The city surrendered 3 days later on the 12th January. Britain offered a status quo ante bellum peace treaty to the French, but it was rejected the French counter-offered with a treaty which would end British claims over the Ohio River Valley. Britain rejected this treaty, however, and the war eventually just ended with a white peace on the 3rd April 1745. The war didn’t officially end until May 1746 when the various Native American tribes that were being influenced by France and Britain finally agreed to a truce.
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Hope that putting all the Prusso-Saxony War parts together is helpful for you all.
I suppose both Bavaria and Prussia-Brandenburg will have to make some territorial concessions too?
Poland-Lithuania might be interested in Lauenburg-Bütow and Draheim. Saxony will be interested in Magdeburg and Halberstadt, perhaps in turn Austria receives Lusatia from Saxony (Saxony formally held Lusatia as fief of the Lands of the Bohemian Crown).
Austria will also want some compensation from Bavaria, most likely in Lower Bavaria, so perhaps they gain the Innviertel a bit sooner?
Poland-Lithuania might be interested in Lauenburg-Bütow and Draheim. Saxony will be interested in Magdeburg and Halberstadt, perhaps in turn Austria receives Lusatia from Saxony (Saxony formally held Lusatia as fief of the Lands of the Bohemian Crown).
Austria will also want some compensation from Bavaria, most likely in Lower Bavaria, so perhaps they gain the Innviertel a bit sooner?
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Hope that putting all the Prusso-Saxony War parts together is helpful for you all.
Loving it, but I've got a few questions. When did Britain ditch their alliance with Austria for one with Prussia? If that's the case then wouldn't Austria and France be allied? Like in OTL's Diplomatic Revolution.
Nice update - I like it - now onwart to teh Carantian wars ...
If I read Ankhs update correctly Britain might have ditched Austria in favor of Prussia on grounds that Austria has become (stayed) a big factor. France and Austria are still not friendly - OTL Austria was in a weak Position, so it allied with fFrance on the ground that Austria Transfers control of the Austrian Netherlands. Austria won't do this here, so competition with France is alive. If Russia had allied with Frederick against Austria and Saxony - an alliance with France might have been conveniant for the Austrians, but not here (I assume)
...If I read Ankhs update correctly Britain might have ditched Austria in favor of Prussia on grounds that Austria has become (stayed) a big factor. France and Austria are still not friendly - OTL Austria was in a weak Position, so it allied with fFrance on the ground that Austria Transfers control of the Austrian Netherlands. Austria won't do this here, so competition with France is alive. If Russia had allied with Frederick against Austria and Saxony - an alliance with France might have been conveniant for the Austrians, but not here (I assume)
You got it Richter.Nice update - I like it - now onwart to teh Carantian wars
If I read Ankhs update correctly Britain might have ditched Austria in favor of Prussia on grounds that Austria has become (stayed) a big factor. France and Austria are still not friendly - OTL Austria was in a weak Position, so it allied with fFrance on the ground that Austria Transfers control of the Austrian Netherlands. Austria won't do this here, so competition with France is alive. If Russia had allied with Frederick against Austria and Saxony - an alliance with France might have been conveniant for the Austrians, but not here (I assume)
Nice update - I like it - now onwart to teh Carantian wars
If I read Ankhs update correctly Britain might have ditched Austria in favor of Prussia on grounds that Austria has become (stayed) a big factor. France and Austria are still not friendly - OTL Austria was in a weak Position, so it allied with fFrance on the ground that Austria Transfers control of the Austrian Netherlands. Austria won't do this here, so competition with France is alive. If Russia had allied with Frederick against Austria and Saxony - an alliance with France might have been conveniant for the Austrians, but not here (I assume)
Hmm, I didn't catch this. A few thoughts here. (ETA: And by "A few thoughts", I apparently meant "a very long essay") One is that there's no way the British will ditch an alliance with Austria in favor of one for Prussia. They didn't do that OTL - what they thought they had accomplished was their long-desired project of recreating the Grand Alliance by being allied with *both* Austria *and* Prussia. They were then astonished and horrified when the Austrians turned around and signed an alliance with France.
It seems to me that what you'll basically get is that when France and Britain go to war in the Americas, the French will attempt to put pressure on George II by occupying Hanover. They're friends with the Wittelsbachs Karl IV Theodor of the Palatinate and with Clemens August of Cologne, who between them control most of the territory between France and Hanover. But Franz Georg of Trier, who is pro-Austrian, controls the main route down the Moselle. The only alternative to going through Trier's territories is to go through Liege, whose bishop is, from 1744, another Wittelsbach, Johann Theodor. But Liege is dangerously close to the Austrian Netherlands. The French probably can't get troops through either Trier or Liege without Austrian acquiescence, or, alternately, riling up the Reich by going through Trier without permission.
So let's say they do the latter (Austrian acquiescence seems unlikely). Franz Georg protests to the Reichstag and to the Emperor (i.e., to Maria Theresa) against the French violation of his territory. The Reichstag will likely be sympathetic, but may not do anything, especially if pro-French types are doing well. What Maria Theresa does is less clear, because I'm not sure what her attitude towards the British would be at this point. George II will have played an important role in securing her husband the imperial crown, but she also won't be eager to get into a war for the sake of French and British colonial rivalries. So let's say both Reichstag and Kaiser make only pro forma protests against the French violation of Trier's neutrality. Or maybe the Elector realizes it's hopeless and comes to an agreement with the French in the face of Austrian indifference. Or maybe the French avoid the problem, go through Liege, and the Austrians don't bother them. Who knows? But if we're trying to avoid a Franco-Austrian war, we pick one of these options.
But then the issue becomes even more acute once the French actually get to Hanover. At that point, George II himself can also protest and demand a Reichskrieg against France. Do the Austrians continue to temporize? This is a very difficult situation, but it seems like the Austrians might be looking to flex their muscles, issue an ultimatum to France to leave imperial territory, and start a war if they don't.
But let's say that the Austrians don't do this. I think for them to basically ignore the problem they'd need some kind of major distraction - a war in the Balkans with the Ottomans? Some sort of intrigue in Poland, or with the Spanish in Italy? I'm not sure. Some sort of issue in the Ottoman Empire might create the fewest ripples? But let's move past it - the Austrians, for whatever reason, don't do anything effective to oppose the French attack on Hanover. Maybe, again, there's a pro forma protest but no effective action.What is George II to do? The French will occupy his beloved homeland if he can't find someone to help him, and the Austrians have abandoned him. So he turns to the next largest army in the vicinity - the Prussians, and signs a subsidy treaty to hire on his least favorite nephew to fight the French on his behalf. Perhaps George II has to promise his ill-gotten gains of 1741 back to Frederick in exchange for his help.
Frederick certainly has no particular reason to be friendly to the French. They didn't help him in 1741, they acquiesced in the loss of his western territories, most of which went to the Elector Palatine, now a French ally. Moreover, since the Reichstag will almost certainly have issued some kind of condemnation of the French invasion, Frederick can claim to be basically doing a Reichexekution, acting in the name of the Reich rather than simply as a mercenary, and winning back some credit in the process.
So Frederick leads his army west, beats the French invaders in a nice set piece battle or two and pushes them back to the Rhine. The French agree to a convention that neutralizes Germany for the remainder of the war.
This leaves Frederick in a much superior position. He's probably won back Minden and Ravensberg; George II owes him big time; and the Austrians will be reasonably pleased that he gave the French a black eye.
Meanwhile, we can perhaps have some sort of tension going on, involving Poland in some way, that leads to poor relations between Austria and Saxony - perhaps this could arise out of whatever crisis Austria is dealing with in the Balkans. Maria Theresa thus seems to be looking reasonably favorably on Frederick, and reasonably unfavorably on Augustus of Saxony.
So now Frederick doesn't need to be quite as insane to launch his attack on Saxony. Maybe Maria Theresa even tacitly encourages him as part of an effort to win concessions from the Saxons on whatever they're arguing about.
I'm still not sure how the Bavarians fit in. Karl Albrecht (who I guess lives longer here out of reduced stress from not becoming emperor?) is still going to be relatively pro-French, and the French aren't going to be either friendly to Frederick or hostile to Saxony (which here is both in difficulties with Austria and likely in a marriage alliance with France.) He's also going to be anti-Austrian, and at this point the Prussian attack against Saxony is one that the Austrians seem to be tacitly supporting. So I'm not sure how this works. But maybe the Bavarians feel abandoned by Louis XV and are trying to strike out on their own. I'm not sure.
So then Frederick attacks Saxony. Likely he does this without consulting very closely with Austria. But Maria Theresa didn't actually want a Prussian invasion - she was just trying to leverage the threat of one into Saxon concessions over whatever it is she's quarreling with Augustus about (some issue with the Polish border? Saxon claims to Lower Silesia? Perhaps she's trying to win back Upper Lusatia? something in the Balkans?)
So Augustus likely first turns to see if the French will help - but I suppose they won't; perhaps you could extend their colonial war with Britain a bit longer so that they're still preoccupied; at any rate, the French aren't in a particularly good position to do anything to help, given the loss of most of the western Prussian territories and English/Hanoverian friendliness to Prussia. And then he turns to the Russians - but perhaps there's internal politics going on there that make Russian help less than forthcoming. And he turns to the Reichstag - which is sympathetic, but not really able to do anything without the Emperor's sanction. So he finally has to go to Maria Theresa. He agrees to whatever concessions she's been demanding and she agrees to help him against the Prussians and Bavarians. Thus, the unexpectedness of her move against Frederick.
So that maybe gets a somewhat more plausible route to what Ankh's looking for?
But Austrian intervention is going to have weird effects in the Empire, since it effectively means Austria is switching sides. Before you had what looked like Britain--Austria--Prussia--Bavaria against Saxony--Poland--France--Russia, or something along those lines. Now you have Saxony--Poland--Austria--Russia against Prussia--Bavaria. Britain and France's positions have been thrown into considerable confusion by the Austrian volte-face. I'm not sure where it goes from there, or if Ankh's idea that Austria could just beat up on Prussia and Bavaria without either Britain or France doing anything to oppose it makes sense.