The Eagle Never Fails TL: Prussia loses the War of Austrian Succession

[jlk7e]

Well I would assume it's just as legal as bribing an elector for the vote and far less expensive I do love the idea of Frederick abdicating in favor of a more "friendly" heir. I mean regardless the only logical way for this all to be sorted out is another war, which the Habsburgs win, and set the idea in motion that actually attempting to win the next Imperial election would be a bad idea. If not just outright changing the law so the title is dynastic.



Exactly and war won't be far off, then goodbye Bavarian Wittelsbachs

This seems a bit facile, though. Charles Albert doesn't even really have an army (most of it had been destroyed in the war with the Turks). As much as he might want to, he won't challenge the Habsburgs directly unless he has French support. And if he has French support, the Austrians won't really be able to dispossess him, even if they win an overwhelming victory. In the event of such a victory over France, they might be able to enforce a Bavaria/Belgium swap, but given the strong opposition that the British-Hanoverians and Dutch would have to such a swap, that's also a bit hard to envision, since presumably a big part of winning a war against France would have to involve insuring British support.

 

[Germania09]

This seems a bit facile, though. Charles Albert doesn't even really have an army (most of it had been destroyed in the war with the Turks). As much as he might want to, he won't challenge the Habsburgs directly unless he has French support. And if he has French support, the Austrians won't really be able to dispossess him, even if they win an overwhelming victory.

French support to Bavaria from what I could tell was a given since the French would rather have Charles on the Imperial throne than the Habsburgs who more often than not are hostile to their interests in Central Europe. At the most they can occupy the Bavarian kingdom indefinitely till Albert is willing to see the writing on the wall.

In the event of such a victory over France, they might be able to enforce a Bavaria/Belgium swap, but given the strong opposition that the British-Hanoverians and Dutch would have to such a swap, that's also a bit hard to envision, since presumably a big part of winning a war against France would have to involve insuring British support.

I always run on the assumption that any alliance on the continent will never last forever. Once British and Austrian interests diverge it'll probably lead to some ITTL version of the Diplomatic Revolution. See the opposition to the swap is one I've never found a reason for. Why are they hostile to it at all? Is it the possibility of a French ally/client kingdom being there? Probably just answered my question not sure

 

[jlk7e]

French support to Bavaria from what I could tell was a given since the French would rather have Charles on the Imperial through than Habsburgs who more often than not are hostile to their interests in Central Europe. At the most they can occupy the Bavarian kingdom indefinitely till Albert is willing to see the writing on the wall.

Well, of course they'd rather have Charles on the imperial throne, all else being equal. The question is whether, if their gambit to win the election for the Wittelsbachs fails, they're willing to go to war over it. It seems to me that this situation is likely to marginalize Belle-Isle and the warmongers, and help Fleury convince the king not to get heavily involved.

I always run on the assumption that any alliance on the continent will never last forever. Once British and Austrian interests diverge it'll probably lead to some ITTL version of the Diplomatic Revolution. See the opposition to the swap is one I've never found a reason for. Why are they hostile to it at all? Is it the possibility of a French ally/client kingdom being there? Probably just answered my question not sure

"The French not controlling Belgium" is like the number one British interest on the continent throughout the 18th century (and arguably well into the 19th). Even if the Elector of Bavaria were not a French client, you'd still have the problem that he doesn't have the resources to defend against a French attack. That's the whole reason it went to Austria in the first place.

 

[Westphalian]

"The French not controlling Belgium" is like the number one British interest on the continent throughout the 18th century (and arguably well into the 19th). Even if the Elector of Bavaria were not a French client, you'd still have the problem that he doesn't have the resources to defend against a French attack. That's the whole reason it went to Austria in the first place.

And arguably during the 18th century this is one point where British parliamentary and royal interests easily line up. If a strong, tendentially anti-French power controls *Belgium, then not only the French navy does not control Ostend and Antwerp: The *Belgian army is also a serious challenge the French have to deal with before they can reach and occupy the Electorate of Hanover.

(This is not to say that a Austrian army makes it impossible for the French to attack the British king in his Hanoverian possessions, that is what paying eg the Prussians or even the Swedish/Ducal Holsteinians is for. But it makes it more difficult/expensive for France, compared to the hypothetical case when *Belgium is owned by a Francophile Greater Palatinate.)

 

[Germania09]

Yeah I figured I had answered my own question -.-
Still it's really to up to how Ankh wants the situation to go which regardless implies much Habsburg wankery

 

[Gwrtheyrn Annwn]

Part 2: Military and Economic Reform 1743- 1747

Following the Treaty of Vienna Maria Theresa was left with a victorious but vulnerable empire. Since 1733 Austria had lost all it's Italian possessions (except Lombardy and Tuscany), all land south of the Danube (including the fortresses of Orsova and Belgrade) had been ceded to the Ottomans and Silesia had almost been lost to a minor power. This series of losses and the near loss of the nation'd most economically advanced province spurred Maria Theresa into action.. She needed to create an adequate economic basis to underpin her nation's status as a great power. Her Secretary of the State Conference Bartenstein realized that the key issue was the unwillingness and inability of the Estates to provide adequately for the payment and supplies of the army. This was due to the Estates being principally concerned with minimizing the burden on they province. In response Maria Theresa decided to raise the subsidy demanded from each province to the level required to support a standing army of 108,000. This additional burden was to be met by taxing seignorial land, which had previously been exempt from taxation. This paln was met with resistance from the nobility, particularly the Supremme Chancellor Count Friedrich Harrach, who attempted to get the power of the Estates increased in return for the demanded subsidy. However, such plans were rejected.
To be continued...

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Its better now - step by step is often a better strategy than all at once.

Even OTL the 7-years war led to Austrian Military Reform - especially the Artillery was seen as advanced.

 

[Germania09]

Yeah this step by step will be better that way if there are any issues they can be addressed easier for you. Also good on you for having Maria Theresa start to reign in the magnates though she may want to zoom in on the Hungarian section of the nobility. They more or less are far too independent minded as OTL showed. And loving the 100k and up sized standing army that should make anyone really rethink taking Austria on

 

[Westphalian]

Yeah this step by step will be better that way if there are any issues they can be addressed easier for you. Also good on you for having Maria Theresa start to reign in the magnates though she may want to zoom in on the Hungarian section of the nobility. They more or less are far too independent minded as OTL showed. And loving the 100k and up sized standing army that should make anyone really rethink taking Austria on

OTL the Hungarians were the ones who backed MT and FS when almost everyone did not. In this TL that is less relevant, but if she thinks that breaking the Hungarians' pride is the way to go, things may become interesting fast.

 

[Germania09]

OTL the Hungarians were the ones who backed MT and FS when almost everyone did not. In this TL that is less relevant, but if she thinks that breaking the Hungarians' pride is the way to go, things may become interesting fast.

You mean the same Hungarian magnates who she had to go in front of and plead in order to gain support because they saw it as not their fight? The same ones she had to negotiate with in order for their support already past Mallowits? Only after she proved that she was "man enough" to be their leader did they back her and only after she was crowned. So please explain why the most obstinate representatives of her nobility in the entirety of her domains shouldn't be reigned in.

 

[Westphalian]

You mean the same Hungarian magnates who she had to go in front of and plead in order to gain support because they saw it as not their fight? The same ones she had to negotiate with in order for their support already past Mallowits? Only after she proved that she was "man enough" to be their leader did they back her and only after she was crowned. So please explain why the most obstinate representatives of her nobility in the entirety of her domains shouldn't be reigned in.

Why would the question who rules over Silesia, or Bohemia, or Further Austria or Tyrol concern the magnates of Hungary? They accepted Maria Theresia as Hungarian monarch and supported their monarch with 20.000 troops. They asked the monarch for privileges, as is the good custom of every nobleman who has not been neutered by an absolutist bureaucracy. MT granted some demands and denied others. At no point did they begin negotiations to replace her or ally themselves with any of the other claimants.

So while in an absolutist frame of mind the King of Hungary might be miffed, the Hungarian Diet acted just in the regular way.

If a victorious-at-Mollwitz and thus haughty MT tried to punish Hungary for being insufficiently humble when supporting her, she will be seen as breaking the feudal trust and faithfulness. And that will bite her in her imperial and royal posterior as soon as Austria has to fight another biggish war.

BTW, it is probably just a typo, but it is "to rein in". As in horse-riding, not in ruling.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I seriously doubt that MT will "rein in" the Magnates - all I could see is the opposite (but unlikely as she is not so dependent on them). In hindsight an early - from a position of strength - "double Monarchy with a pronounced Hungarian entity (=outside the HRE) would be beneficial to the HAbsburg Position.

OTOH nationalism might be changed greatly TTL

IF Austria is strong the position of POLAND might be better TTL.


When August dies and the Polish Throne is vacant MT might support the election of Adam Czartoryski (who OTL lost to Stanislaus Poniatovski)

Austria might NOT have interest to divide POland - it makes a great buffer state and givuing parts to Prussia and Russia is not in Austrias interest.

 

[Janprimus]

The Duchy of Crossen (see the map I posted a few days ago in this thread) is in a highly technical way not a part of Brandenburg proper, so it is not unalienable according to the Golden Bull. But frankly, by the 1740s, I really doubt that anyone would regard the cession of the Sternburger Kreis of the Neumark as illegal.


Prussian Geldern is the most obvious (re)gain for the Southern Netherlands.
Cleves, Ravenstein and Meurs are of highest priority for the Palatinate, I think. The County of Mark is attractive for neighboring Berg (and thus the Palatinate) But that area is thoroughly Lutheran - does that still matter in the 1740s? I guess not.
Minden, Lingen and Tecklenburg are obviously desirable for Hanover, as might be Halberstadt and even Magdeburg. Ravensberg is nearly unified with Minden, but technically a part of the Clevish inheritance.
(...)

It does depend on, who's involved. Orange-Nassau(-Dietz) might be interested to get Lingen and Moers/Meurs back and the king in Prussia & prince-elector of Brandenburg renounces his claim of the title prince of Orange in favour of Orange-Nassau; they had disputed this inheritance with the Brandenburg-Prussian Hohenzollerns ever since Frederick-Henry and William III had left conflicting last wills.
Cleves, Mark, Ravenstein and Ravensberg are indeed attractive for the Palatinate. Prussian Gelderland could be returned to the Southern Netherlands.
I agree Minden, Tecklenburg and Halberstadt seem desirable for Hanover.

There are some (other) possibilities in a bit more to the east too. For instance Austria could get Lusatia and Crossen, but the elector of Saxony is compensated with Brandenburg-Prussian territory like the duchy of Magdeburg.
In any case Prussia-Brandenburg will keep Brandenburg proper, the kingdom of Prussia and probably Pomerania.

 

[Gwrtheyrn Annwn]

Just so you know guys the first post has been updated.

 

[Faeelin]

Honestly, I think Bavaria would be helpful, but isn't the real key to Austrian superpower status making it as strong and centralized as Prussia?

 

[Germania09]

Alright let me tackle this one because we seem to misunderstanding each other on this and why she needs to neuter their authority to oppose her.

Why would the question who rules over Silesia, or Bohemia, or Further Austria or Tyrol concern the magnates of Hungary? They accepted Maria Theresia as Hungarian monarch and supported their monarch with 20.000 troops.

Alright let me start with this. I'll right there I'll concede your point that to the mindset of the Hungarian Magnates that would make sense. However to MT who has just won a war for legitimacy, those demands are ludicrous and evidence of an intransigent nobility who need to knocked down a peg or two. ITTL those demands for more liberties in order to recognize her as sovereign despite her sex will no doubt still be there. And here she can tell them to kindly shove off.

They asked the monarch for privileges, as is the good custom of every nobleman who has not been neutered by an absolutist bureaucracy. MT granted some demands and denied others. At no point did they begin negotiations to replace her or ally themselves with any of the other claimants.

So while in an absolutist frame of mind the King of Hungary might be miffed, the Hungarian Diet acted just in the regular way.

Because they knew that they could bide their time while MT had a war to fight. Here ITTL she just won the war and is going to be asking questions as to why she has to answer at all to an institution her family has been ignoring since Ferdinand I.

If a victorious-at-Mollwitz and thus haughty MT tried to punish Hungary for being insufficiently humble when supporting her, she will be seen as breaking the feudal trust and faithfulness. And that will bite her in her imperial and royal posterior as soon as Austria has to fight another biggish war.

She didn't have Hungarian support at Mallowitz, not until after she was coronated and only then did that happen. She just won Mallowitz without them so they have no excuses. Btw the Habsburg have been running roughshod over Hungarian feudal rights since they ascended the throne and never till possibly Ferdinand had to answer the Diet in order to assume the crown of St. Stephen until just now. This stunt of there's right there was endemic of an independent minded Hungarian aristocracy that more often than not borderlined on treason. This same mindset didn't disappear until the Soviets finally came in and confiscated their properties. They will try this stunt only to find MT not in the mood in the slightest to hear their bs. They have the mindset of spoiled children who believe it's still the Middle Ages and need to brought into line.

BTW, it is probably just a typo, but it is "to rein in". As in horse-riding, not in ruling.

And it was a typo on my part my phones auto-correct is really bad -.-

I seriously doubt that MT will "rein in" the Magnates - all I could see is the opposite (but unlikely as she is not so dependent on them). In hindsight an early - from a position of strength - "double Monarchy with a pronounced Hungarian entity (=outside the HRE) would be beneficial to the HAbsburg Position.

OTOH nationalism might be changed greatly TTL

IF Austria is strong the position of POLAND might be better TTL.


When August dies and the Polish Throne is vacant MT might support the election of Adam Czartoryski (who OTL lost to Stanislaus Poniatovski)

Austria might NOT have interest to divide POland - it makes a great buffer state and givuing parts to Prussia and Russia is not in Austrias interest.

Actually she does, without Mallowits MT doesn't have to give in at all to the Magnates demands which were done at a moment of weakness, the consequences of which the monarchy had to deal with a century later. I doubt with the mindset of MT that she's going to do anything other than centralize Royal authority in order to match what other European nations have done over the years. You guys seem to have forgotten that MT didn't get Hungarian support in any form till after Mallowits.

Honestly, I think Bavaria would be helpful, but isn't the real key to Austrian superpower status making it as strong and centralized as Prussia?

Yeah Maria after winning Mallowits has less reason to give power to the nobility and more so to centralize in order to increase royal authority at the expense of an obvious intransigent nobility.

 

[Janprimus]

Honestly, I think Bavaria would be helpful, but isn't the real key to Austrian superpower status making it as strong and centralized as Prussia?

If Austria would want to weaken Bavaria without conspiciously aggrandizing themselevs, they could restore the Upper Palatinate to the Elector Palatine.

In the OTL war of the Bavarian Succession, Austria claimed the Upper Palatinate and Lower Bavaria, so ITTL Austria might get Lower Bavaria or at least parts of it. OTOH that may weaken Bavaria a bit too much, so perhaps no or only a few Austrian gains in Lower Bavaria.

 

[Westphalian]

It does depend on, who's involved. Orange-Nassau(-Dietz) might be interested to get Lingen and Moers/Meurs back and the king in Prussia & prince-elector of Brandenburg renounces his claim of the title prince of Orange in favour of Orange-Nassau; they had disputed this inheritance with the Brandenburg-Prussian Hohenzollerns ever since Frederick-Henry and William III had left conflicting last wills.
Cleves, Mark, Ravenstein and Ravensberg are indeed attractive for the Palatinate. Prussian Gelderland could be returned to the Southern Netherlands.
I agree Minden, Tecklenburg and Halberstadt seem desirable for Hanover.

There are some (other) possibilities in a bit more to the east too. For instance Austria could get Lusatia and Crossen, but the elector of Saxony is compensated with Brandenburg-Prussian territory like the duchy of Magdeburg.
In any case Prussia-Brandenburg will keep Brandenburg proper, the kingdom of Prussia and probably Pomerania.

Vague recollection: There was one advisor to the Saxon court who was big on "natural shapes" for countries, so he advocated accepting that Brandenburg with Silesia was Oder-and-Spree-based, so had a "right" to the Lusatias. Saxony, OTOH, should be Elbe-and-Saale-based, which meant getting Magdeburg-Halle, Erfurt (from Mayence) and the suzerainty over den Ernestine Saxon Sukes in Thuringia. (And, in the long run, Saxony should somehow acquire Bohemia; but not Moravia, which is Danube-oriented).

Generally spoken:
In his various Political Wills, Frederick II. always describes Brandenburg, Pomerania, Silesia, Magedeburg and Halberstadt as the relevant heartland of his domains.
The western provinces are too far off and too small to defend them militarily, even having fortresses is inopportune, as in case of a war keeping themagainst sieges is too difficult and when you lose them, the enemy (like France) can keep them occupied.
East Prussia can realistically only be attacked by Russia, and Prussia can do nothing to defend it. Even evacuating the troops in East Prussia is difficult since the Vistula must be crossed. If the Russians occupy Danzig by sea, that is impossible unless a lot of soldiers are sent from Pomerania to cover the crossing.

Conferring these thoughts to a situation when Prussian has suffered a big defeat: Ceding any of the heartland provinces (not counting Silesia, of course, and formerly Silesian Crossen) might be hardest for F2, and he might look for any way before giving in.
Ceding Prussia proper is politically difficult since it means losing the right to a royal title. And, what is more, Russia might be actively opposed to Austria or even Poland acquiring East Prussia.
Ceding some or all of the western provinces might be the easiest sacrifice for a beaten Prussia besides formally giving up all claims on the Silesian principalities of Liegnitz, Wohlau and Brieg.

 

[Janprimus]

@Westphalian: I'm pretty sure Charles VI considered Silesia as a part of his 'heartland' domains too, yet his successor Maria Theresia had to swallow the humiliation of losing that too.
Not to mention the example, what happened after the death of William/Willem III, who's will was conflicting with that of Frederik Hendrik, so the lands of Orange-Nassau(-Dillenburg*) ended up being divided between Orange-Nassau(-Dietz*) and the Prussian-Brandenburg branch of the house of Hohenzollern. IIRC Willem III left the whole Orange-Nassau(-Dillenburg) to Johan Willem Friso of Nassau-Dietz (thereafter Orange-Nassau(-Dietz)).

It will be hard, but losing a conflict usually isn't pretty. If the Hohenzollerns lose Halberstadt and Magdeburg, well Prussia-Brandenburg might keep parts of Magdeburg, provided the territory it would cede compensates Saxony for losing Upper & Lower Lusatia (Kottbus could be added to Austrian gains).

(*= to distinguish between the two branches)

Unless Saxony is an Austrian ally, then they might keep Lusatia, but still receive (parts of) Magdeburg (and Kottbus) as a reward. In which case Austria could still get Crossen.

 

[Westphalian]

@Westphalian: I'm pretty sure Charles VI considered Silesia as a part of his 'heartland' domains too, yet his successor Maria Theresia had to swallow the humiliation of losing that too.

Of course.
First, Prussia will cede also a "heartland" domain before ceasing to exist. Just see 1806.
I just wanted to point out that we have explicit proof that F2 ordered his domains in terms of defensability and desirability.