The Eagle and the Sun: A TMITHC TL

Daniels

Banned
Phillip K. Dick´s book is brilliant but the chronological events of his timeline are often contradictory or shrouded in darkness. So here my attempt to create the most realistic The Man in the High Castle Timeline of World War II - enjoy:

From Dr. Alexander Holmes: A history of the United States Volume IV, The coming storm (Reich & Wings - Rocky Mountain States 1962)

The assassination of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt by Guiseppe “Joe” Zangara on February 15th 1933 in Miami was a tragedy that hit the country at the worst possible moment. Not only did the United States loose a newly elected President who set a new sad record for the shortest time period a president spent in office, but Anton Cermak, the energetic crime fighting mayor of Chicago as well. While Zangara died a gruesome death on the electric chair just five weeks later, he boasted a claim few people in history can decorate themselves with: “I kill kings and presidents and all you capitalist are next.”

Some historians have argued that Zangaras assassination of Roosevelt might have been as influential on the course of world history as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria by Yugoslav nationalist Gavrilo Princip 19 years prior, however this is most certainly not true. Roosevelt would have faced the same problems as his Vice President John Nance Garner, who was inaugurated on March 20th 1933 and it is unclear if he would have fared better against the dire circumstances the Great Depression had created in the United States.

By the time Garner became President, some 13 million Americans were unemployed, a number 10 times greater than it had been in 1928 before the onset of the crisis. To counter this development Garner formulated “The good old Days Plan” which soon many American would just call “The Gold Plan”. The two main pillars of the plan were a balanced federal budget and no deficit spending. Garner believed that the more debt the US accumulated the worse the economy would get. If on the other hand the United States could stabilise its expenditure for just a few years, the crisis would pass and unemployment would decrease. To achieve his goal Garner increased the taxes on the rich and in what many historians consider to be the greatest mistake of his presidency, massively reduced military spending. As an isolationist Garner believed that the US should not meddle into foreign conflicts and that the protection of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans were perfectly sufficient; therefore he reasoned that the United States needed only a minimal Army, Navy and Air Force. US War Department Expenditures which in 1932 had stood at 250 million Dollars were reduced to 210 million in 1933, 150 million in 1934 and stabilized at 120 million in 1935.Besides the reduction in military spending, Garner started a campaign to sell military equipment to other countries. During the years 1933-1936 the US sold over 400 aircraft and more than two dozen capital ships to foreign countries, earning an additional 140 million Dollars.

While Garners policies were less effective then the President had hoped, the number of unemployed begun to decrease at the end of 1933 and shortly before the Presidential election of 1936 had went below the 11 million mark. Within 3.5 years the Presidents policies had led some 2 million people out of the misery of unemployment. With such results behind him the President easily won against his Republican challenger Alf Landon, fulfilling Garners slogan: “My job isn´t done yet. Four more Garner is better than this farmer (Landon)”! The President couldn’t enjoy his victory for long though. Just 8 months after his re-election the Japanese Empire invaded China leading to an international crisis. For the first time during his presidency Garner feared for the security of the United States and realized that by neglecting the military he might have seriously imperilled the existence of the United States. (Ironically by reducing the military the President had imperilled his own existence as well. He narrowly survived a grievous injury he received during the fighting around Uvalde in 1946 and died one year later on November 7th 1947.)

The same Garner that had opposed the planned expansion of the Navy and had blocked the Vinson-Trammell Act in 1934 and the Naval Act of 1936, now passed the so called Naval Act of 1938 which envisioned to modernize and increase the size of the US Navy. However the Presidents first attempt to enlarge one branch of the military was put to a halt by the Recession of 1937 which started in the summer of 1937 and was not over until the end of 1938. During this time period industrial output declined by some 20% and the number of unemployed which had stood at 10.5 million in mid 1937 had once again reached almost 13 million in late 1938. Realising the vulnerability of the US, President Garner pushed the 1937 and 1938 Neutrality acts which practically forbade any American interaction with belligerent nations. He hoped that these actions would ensure that the United States would not be sucked into another conflict as it had been during World War I. This decision made during a period of Garners rule which historians now call the “Garner Panic” is considered to be the only sound policy made by the President during his second term (besides pushing the Naval Act of 1938). In early 1939 the US was in absolutely no position to enter any kind of armed conflict. Due to Garners budget cuts both the Army and Navy had less than 100 000 personnel at their disposal, the Air force consisted of 8000 men with less than 400 machines.

US industry which by 1937 had partially recovered from the Great Depression was thrown back to the level of 1932 due to the Depression of 1937/38. In the entire country there were less than two dozen factories that produced military equipment and just 8 naval construction docks that constructed military vessels. With unemployment back to its 1933 levels a nonexistent military industry and war threatening the US from both Europe and Asia it is no surprise that Garner lost the Presidential race against John William Bricker in 1940. The Republican Bricker, while an isolationist as well was still more competent than Garner and clearly saw the threat the United States faced from Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany. As such Bricker introduced compulsory conscription in June 1941 and pushed the Two-Ocean Navy Act which was enacted on July 19th 1941. At the same time Bricker adopted a succession of increasingly restrictive trade restrictions with Japan. When asked by a journalist if this wasn’t a violation of his Isolationist view the President replied: “It is not intervention into a foreign conflict if we decide with whom to trade”. While Bricker believed that these actions would deter Japan from further aggressions, they achieved the exact opposite. The embargo of scrap Iron and copper robbed Japan of 74% and 93% of its supplies of these materials yet it was Brickers decision to enact a fuel and gasoline embargo on August 1st that pushed the Japanese on a path to war. When they attacked Pearl Harbour on December 7th 1941 the United States were in no better position to wage war than in 1939. When comparing the size of the US Navy and the Japanese Navy this becomes more than clear:

Japanese and American ships in December 1941 total

Battleships 10/11
Aircraft carriers 10/5
Heavy cruisers 18/12
Light Cruisers 18/13
Destroyers 113/90
Submarines 63/70

Yet the Americans had to split their Navy between two Oceans, while the Japanese had the luxury to concentrate their fleet in one. When comparing the size of the US Pacific Fleet with the Imperial Japanese Navy the picture becomes even more bleak

Japanese and American ships in the Pacific December 1941

Battleships 10/6
Aircraft carriers 10/3
Heavy cruisers 18/6
Light Cruisers 18/7
Destroyers 113/50
Submarines 63/45

These however were the force levels before Pearl Harbour……

Next time on TMITHC TL: The War in Europe
 
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Daniels

Banned
From David Irving: Apocalypse 1943, Britains War in Europe (Blankleys – London 1963)

There is no doubt that continued British resistance against the German juggernaut after the summer of 1940 was one of the worst political decisions made in human history. Germany had overrun Poland within a month, Denmark in a single day, defeated the Franco-British forces in Scandinavia with minor effort and annihilated the combined forces of Western Europe in a mere 6 weeks. Unfortunately for the British people, through a series of strange events Winston Churchill had become Prime Minister in May 1940 and refused to make peace with Germany. Instead of accepting reality, that Britain was far too weak to resist, yet alone defeat the German superpower on its own, Churchill made empty threats against the Reich and did everything in his power to drag the United States into the conflict. During the summer of 1940 Churchill sent more than two dozen letters to American President Garner, begging him to supply Britain with material and arms as the United States had done during World War I. Naturally Garner refused. By the summer of 1940 the United States was still recovering from the Recession of 1937, had no military to speak of and Garner was more concerned with the upcoming election than British survival. As an isolationist he was also weary to drag the US into another global conflict, especially during a time when both the economy and military were still recovering. However in a sign of good will towards the British people Garner modified the Neutrality acts passed in 1937/1938 and allowed Britain to purchase food and other non-military goods despite being a belligerent nation. While this was better than nothing, it was far less than Churchill had hoped for.

In order to bring Britain to the negotiation table, the Luftwaffe started a campaign of strategic bombing against the stubborn island, which is now known as the Battle of Britain. The ultimate goal of the Luftwaffe was to gain air superiority over southeast England in order to enable operation Sealion - the invasion of the British Islands. In order to defeat the Royal Air Force the Luftwaffe started precision strikes against RAF airfields and radar stations. In an attempt to divert German forces from these essential targets, the British started vicious bombing campaigns against Berlin. It was hoped that Germany would retaliate against British cities giving the airfields and radar stations time to recover. While this plan almost worked, (the Urfuhrer Hitler wanted to bomb London in retaliation) Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring managed to convince Hitler to not divert the forces of the Luftwaffe. As a result the RAF was slowly pushed out of southeast England and by the end of October had to withdraw its forces to central England. From mid July until the end of October the Luftwaffe had lost 1547 and the RAF 1887 aircraft. Yet even with the RAF ultimately defeated, it had managed to buy enough time for the weather to make any invasion of Britain impossible for at least another 8 months. However invasion was not the only threat Britain faced. Since the outbreak of the war until the end of 1940 the Germans had sunk 5.2 million tons of shipping space while Britain and its Empire had build only 1.5 million tons during the same time period. By the end of 1940 German aircraft were dominating the skies of southeast England, Britain´s merchant fleet was slowly evaporating and the Italians had opened up another front in North Africa. Even Churchill was getting desperate. Once again he pleaded for help from the US, begging newly elected President Bricker for any kind of support; a request Bricker declined. During 1941 the United States were busy in overcoming the effects of Garners presidency which had practically destroyed the armed forces and the military industry of the US. On top of that an overwhelming majority of American Generals and Admirals warned Bricker that the US could not spare any military equipment at all and that in the end anything he gave to the British would end up in German hands anyways.

With Bricker´s refusal to help, Britain was doomed. Besides the victory over Italian forces in North Africa in January 1941, the country stumbled from one disaster to the next for the rest of the war. British troops were easily expelled from Greece and Crete, Tobruk fell in May 1942, Malta was starved into submission just 3 months later, Alexandria fell in October, and by Christmas of 1942 the German Afrika Korps had conquered Cairo and taken control over the Suez Channel.The situation at sea was even worse. During 1941 the British Empire had built 1.2 million tons of new shipping space, while the Germans had sunk 4.4 million tons. Even American entry into the war after Pearl Harbour could not make good these losses. During 1942 the British Empire built 2 million tons of shipping space and the US 2.6 million, yet during that year the Germans sunk a staggering 8.3 million tons of merchant shipping. For the period 1939-1942 the combined American and Commonwealth production of shipping space had amounted to 8.3 million tons, while the Germans had destroyed over 18 million tons! The combined Commonwealth/American merchant fleet which had fielded an impressive 34 million tons in 1939 had been reduced by nearly a third to just 24 million tons at the end of 1942. By the end of 1941 British supply situation was becoming dire, everything from fuel over steel to food was becoming scarce.

Even though Britain was becoming weaker by the minute the warmonger Churchill refused to negotiate. Now that both the United States and the Soviet Union were in the war he believed that Britain could not lose and resorted to extreme measures, which in reality were nothing more than desperate inhumane terror-attacks of a dying regime. Beginning in February 1942 Bomber Command under Arthur Harris started the infamous 500 bomber terror attacks against German cities, which killed 8000 people in Cologne, 12 000 in Hamburg, 15 000 in Dresden and tens of thousands in other cities. During all of 1942 British bomber attacks had killed more than 100 000 German civilians and devastated two dozen German cities. In North Africa Churchill created the “Long Range Desert Group” which consisted of fanatical British Commandos that were dropped behind enemy lines and murdered thousands of German and Italian soldiers and civilians in their sleep. Some of these troops were even dropped over Italy, the Balkans and even the Ostmark where they often wreaked havoc for several days! The most infamous action of these commandos was most likely the Taranto operation, where 47 British commandos managed to destroy large parts of the Taranto harbour and killed 157 civilians and 283 Italian soldiers and sailors.

In the end all these actions were pointless, since they did nothing to solve Britain´s real problem, the lack of supplies. The first reports about people that died from hunger started to appear at the end of September 1942, in October some 10 000 people starved to death, in November the number was 30 000 and 70 000 in December. This famine, coupled with the loss of Cairo at the end of 1942, lead to Churchill being removed from office, the new Prime Minister Lloyd George immediately entered into negotiations with Germany which lead to Great Britain´s capitulation in the treaty of London, which was signed on January 24th 1943. The main points of the treaty were the following:
  1. The British Islands will be occupied by German troops, troops which will be escorted to Great Britain by the Royal Navy
  2. The entire Royal Navy is immediately recalled to Scapa Flow, some specific ships are to sail to German harbours where they will be immediately given to the Kriegsmarine
  3. Should the British Navy flee or scuttle itself Germany will not seize its U-boat campaign
By February 1943 Great Britain was fully occupied and the majority of the Royal Navy in German hands, (only 18 ships had scuttled themselves and only 21 escaped to the United States or Canada.) Had Britain agreed to peace in 1940, the country could have remained the second or third greatest power in the world, yet Churchills stupid decisions to continue the senseless fight had reduced Britain to a German vassal state, and brought Churchill the execution in March 1943.

Next time on TMITHC TL: The War in Europe Part 2
 
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Daniels

Banned
From Heinz Magenheimer: The preventive war against the Soviet Union (Panther publishing 1971 London)

On June 22nd 1941 the German Army conducted a successful pre-emptive strike against the Soviet armies that had amassed on the Soviet-German border. What followed was a series of victories unparalleled in human history. Within the next six months the USSR would loose the Baltic, Byelorussia, the Ukraine and most of Western Russia. Soviet casualties were unprecedented, even when compared to the battles of the First World War and clearly demonstrated the superiority of the German Army. Within 6 months the Soviets had lost some 6 million dead and captured; over 20 000 tanks and aircraft each and over 100 000 artillery guns and mortars. German casualties were one tenth these numbers, or less. The capture of Moscow was only prevented through an unnaturally harsh winter where temperatures decreased to -50 Celsius and made much of German equipment unusable. Yet this was only a temporary setback. By April 1942 the German Armies has stopped the Soviet hordes and were preparing a new offensive against the economically viable area of the Caucasus. It is now known that since the early days of the pre-emptive attack, Stalin begged the Western capitalists for help of any kind; he even demanded large quantities of British and American equipment deliveries. Of course no such deliveries ever came.

By the summer of 1941 Britain was losing its war against Germany and needed everything for itself, while the United States were preoccupied with creating an army and military industry. Even if the Western Plutocracies had supplied the Communists, it is doubtful if the results would have been any different; at best the inevitable outcome would have been delayed. This outcome was decided with the start of Case Blue – the German attack against the Caucasus which commenced on June 28th 1942. Within the next five months German armies conquered the entire Caucasus, severing the supply of oil and other resources from the Caucasus to the industrial centres of the north. A Soviet counteroffensive in the Stalingrad region which started in mid-October was modestly successful and managed to create a dent in the German frontline but ultimately remained without any substantial consequences. By the beginning of 1943 it was evident that the USSR was collapsing. Lack of resources hampered Soviet war production, lack of food was slowly killing Soviet resistance. In January 1943 the USSR was hit by a famine that killed between 70 000 and 100 000 people in that month alone, during all of 1943 it is estimated that some 2 million Soviet citizens had starved to death. Stalin reacted with a new wave of terror and brutality. Tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians were executed, the Red Army was ordered to launch the greatest offensive of the war in a desperate attempt to sway the inevitable outcome

Codenamed “Mars” this offensive started on June 5th 1943 and aimed to recapture the Caucasus and its viable resources. What followed was the most titanic battle of the Second World War. Over the next two months it took all the strength of the Reich to prevail and in the end it did. Over 10 000 Soviet tanks and aircraft had been destroyed and nearly 1.5 million Red Army soldiers either killed or captured. With this defeat, the Soviet state collapsed like a house of cards. The remnants of the Red Army revolted against their political commissars, the population abandoned the factories in search of food and the Communist Party descended into an internal power struggle in which Stalin, Molotov and several other important party officials were killed. The German Army used this situation to its advantage and during the second half of 1943 advanced as far as the Ural mountains with little opposition. At the end of 1943 the Soviet rump state surrendered, becoming a German vassal state. In the Middle East Rommel´s forces which had advanced northward from the Suez channel had met with General Paulus´ 6th army at Teheran on May 28th and by the end of the year had reached the Indian border where they met the victorious Japanese Ray Area Army commanded by General Heitaro Kimura. By the beginning of 1944 the Axis powers ruled either directly or indirectly over all of Eurasia and Africa. One last enemy remained though, the centre of capitalist plutocracy: The United States of America.

Next time on TMITHC TL: The War in the Pacific&Asia
 
Oh well, even if the US fully concentrates on shipbuilding, they will still lose in the Pacific, while German, Italian and Japanese shipyards (coupled with captured British, Soviet and French docks) will outbuild the US and make invasion possible.
 

Daniels

Banned
From: Akira Fujiwara, Aurora (Samurai Publishing - Pacific States of America 1959)

When the Japanese Empire attacked the American Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbour, even the great Admiral Yamamoto had not anticipated such a success. For the loss of half a dozen one man submarines and two dozen aircrafts, the American Pacific fleet had lost 190 aircraft, two battleships, two cruisers and most importantly two aircraft carriers. In one swift blow the Imperial Navy had established an overwhelming superiority over the Americans. By December 8th, the force levels of the Japanese and American fleets in the Pacific looked as following:

Battleships 10/4
Aircraft carriers 10/1
Heavy cruisers 18/4
Light Cruisers 18/7
Destroyers 113/50
Submarines 63/45

Until April the Allies would loose another 4 battleships, (2 American), 1 aircraft carrier, 4 heavy cruisers (2 American), 6 light cruisers (1 American) and 15 destroyers, for the price of just 5 Japanese destroyers! By the end of spring, the Japanese high command decided to launch an attack against Port Moresby in the Southern Pacific in order to isolate Australia. This culminated in the Battle of the Coral Sea where the Japanese Navy lost the aircraft carrier Shoho, but in turn destroyed the last two remaining American aircraft carriers in the Pacific. After this victory Yamamoto decided to lure the Americans into a trap, leading to the destruction of the remaining American naval forces. He also intended to occupy the Midway Atoll in order to strengthen Japanese defensives by turning Midway into a major airbase that would have secured the entire Central Pacific. While the Americans had broken Japanese codes just a few weeks prior to the Midway attack, by this time the numerical superiority of the Japanese fleet was so overwhelming that it mattered little. Although the Imperial Navy lost 8 capital ships, including the aircraft carrier Soryu, the Americans lost 10, as well as the strategically important Midway Atoll.

With desperation bordering on sheer panic, the Americans and Australians assembled all their remaining forces and launched a counter-attack in the Solomon Islands at Guadalcanal. The battle raged from early August until the end of January 1943 and while costing the lives of over 15 000 Japanese soldiers ended in a Japanese victory. This was the last offensive the Americans would mount in the Pacific War. Meanwhile, Admiral Yamamoto prepared an invasion of the ultimate price; the Hawaii Islands. For this endeavour the Admiral assembled 2/3 of the Imperial Navy, including: 6 aircraft carriers, 5 battleships, 22 cruisers, 27 submarines and 71 destroyers and a fleet of 300 cargo ships that transported 150 000 Japanese soldiers including 500 tanks and 600 guns. The attacked commenced on December 7th 1942, exactly one year after the Japanese attack against Pearl Harbour and resulted in a two month long campaign, that stretched the Japanese supply line close to the breaking point. Looses were gruesome. The invading Japanese forces lost over 50 000 soldiers, and 21 ships, including 2 aircraft carriers, 3 battleships and 7 cruisers; while the Americans lost 40 000 soldiers and 19 ships, yet in the end the Imperial Navy and Army prevailed. By early February 1943 the Americans had retreated, as had the Royal Navy due to its capitulation contract with Germany.

With the two most dangerous foes on the run, the rest of the Pacific War represented more of a mopping up operation than an actual conflict. Japanese forces in Hawaii were greatly reinforced in order to create an insurmountable obstacle against the Americans, at the same time the Imperial Navy turned its full attention against Australia and New Zeeland, while the Imperial Army advanced across the Indian subcontinent. Melbourne capitulated on July 6th, while Auckland followed just two months later. By the end of the year Japanese forces had met with General Rommels forces in India and had occupied large parts of previously Soviet held Siberia. The Greater East Asian Co Prosperity Sphere was complete. However Japanese leaders could not rest. Despite their tremendous victories, the United States still remained a threat to their domination of the Pacific Area. The Germans saw the United States as a threat as well and so the Axis powers decided to deal with this threat once and for all. Throughout 1944 both the German and Japanese Empires prepared for a simultaneous attack against the US. This attack commenced on November 7th in the middle of the presidential election and marked the beginning of the age of the German Eagle and the Japanese Sun.

Next time on TMITHC TL: The Battle of the United States
 
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