A Less Than Splendid Little War

[haider najib]

Wouldn't USA attacking mainland spain be seen as a escalation to the extent europe would intervene.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Range should not e that big a Problem sine they (the Spanish) can refuel(take on coal and Food but no ammo) at any of the "neutral" powers ports in the Caribbean or northern South America. This is afterall what the German Raiders under the command of von Spee did in WW1(I am refering to them takeing on oal in Argentina).

That is true. I guess I misread your post thinking that you meant they would raid the coast when you just meant commerce raiding. Sorry, yes, that is a very good idea and it is quite likely to occur with certain caveats. If we are just talking about commerce raiding, fast auxiliary cruisers are an option but commerce raiding alone is a waste of an armored cruiser if you have so few to spare and the doctrine of the day was that you wanted to avoid dividing your core ships that in such a situation. A raid on the Eastern seaboard is still arguably within their capability and that's where the range becomes an issue because of the limited choice of neutral ports.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Wouldn't USA attacking mainland spain be seen as a escalation to the extent europe would intervene.

Good question. Possibly. Spain has three main sympathetic nations: Austria, Germany and France, in that order. Maybe Italy and Russia to a degree. Of these, only Germany was even considering a confrontation, though they were wary of starting a war. We know how they acted in the Philippines. There
is no context to predict how they would react to an American fleet in Europe but regardless, Spain was never able to get a guarantee of protection unless they offered to sell so much territory that they wouldn't even need it. The economic cost of fighting the USA was also a powerful deterrent.

 

[Lord Okkirke]

You are Aware that the majority of the us Coastal Fortifications were buillt around 1870 and the new forts that were to be built were not done yet? This should make the US Coastal Defense something of a joke compared to the Spanish Ships.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coastal_fortifications_of_the_United_States

But yes useing a armored ruiser against merchant shipping may be a bit of a waste but when the enemy can deploy battleships in greater numbers than you have cruisers you should follow the addvice of Sun Tzu and be strong where the enemy is weak(i.e. go hunting merchants off the US East Coast and force them to scatter their ships all the way from Miami to New York) and not try to fight the US Navy head on.

 

[Chris Triangle]

You are Aware that the majority of the us Coastal Fortifications were buillt around 1870 and the new forts that were to be built were not done yet? This should make the US Coastal Defense something of a joke compared to the Spanish Ships.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coastal_fortifications_of_the_United_States

But yes useing a armored ruiser against merchant shipping may be a bit of a waste but when the enemy can deploy battleships in greater numbers than you have cruisers you should follow the addvice of Sun Tzu and be strong where the enemy is weak(i.e. go hunting merchants off the US East Coast and force them to scatter their ships all the way from Miami to New York) and not try to fight the US Navy head on.

Thank you for the information! I had read that they were inadequate but did not know that they were that inadequate.

These targets are indeed juicy but I've got to go back and see what the Spanish plans were regarding this. The Americans have few cruisers that can both catch the Spanish and defeat them but the range issue still concerns me.

 

[Lord Okkirke]

Now I know that this article says the the development of UNREP begann about 1900 (should be close enough that you might have the Spanish try it), but Even if it is rediculusly hard with Coal and inefficent it should solve some of the Spanish range Problems.
https://military.wikia.org/wiki/Underway_replenishment
Given that the Spanish have been trying to moderize their fleet you could say that this early Version of UNREP was developed to aid the rapid Transfer of ships from Spain to their Pacific possesions as they would not have to stop a forgin ports/cross the Pacific via the Panama Canal in a more or less straight line.

or to Quote Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

After a stopover of several weeks at the minor port of Nossi-Bé, Madagascar, that had been reluctantly allowed by neutral France in order not to jeopardize its relations with its Russian ally, the Russian Baltic fleet proceeded to Cam Ranh Bay in French Indochina passing on its way through the Singapore Strait between 7 and 10 April 1905.[68] The fleet finally reached the Sea of Japan in May 1905. The logistics of such an undertaking in the age of coal power was astounding. The squadron required approximately 500,000 tons of coal to complete the journey, yet by international law, it was not allowed to coal at neutral ports, forcing the Russian authorities to acquire a large fleet of colliers to supply the fleet at sea. The weight of the ships' stores needed for such a long journey was to be another major problem.[69] The Russian Second Pacific Squadron (the renamed Baltic Fleet) sailed 18,000 nautical miles (33,000 km) to relieve Port Arthur only to hear the demoralizing news that Port Arthur had fallen while it was still at Madagascar. Admiral Rozhestvensky's only hope now was to reach the port of Vladivostok. There were three routes to Vladivostok, with the shortest and most direct passing through Tsushima Strait between Korea and Japan. However, this was also the most dangerous route as it passed between the Japanese home islands and the Japanese naval bases in Korea.

 

[Chris Triangle]

It is plausible that the Spanish might attempt that strategy to some very basic extent. They seem to have had quite a few colliers and shared quite a bit of coal between ships during the crossing from Cape Verde so that they could keep their destroyers going to at least Martinique, where the French could not have been much less helpful btw. Still ,there was a surprising amount of open-mindedness and innovation in the Spanish navy so a very basic version of underway replishment is doable.

At any rate, I have reviewed some of the correspondence between Bermejo and Cervera, Baranger's views and Mahan's assessment and have reaffirmed my original TL plans. As soon as I get usable WiFi, I'll update.

 

[Drex]

I'm a bit late to this, but I would like to add my grain of salt to TTL's planning. Admiral Villaamil, the father of the "Destroyer" ships had devised a plan to really hurt the US in case of an all-out war. His plan was to use the mainland fleet in Spain and use his ship's faster speed to launch a bombing raid across the US eastern coast, which would force the USN to lift or soften the blockade of Cuba in order to protect their own coast, thus allowing his ships to break the blockade of Cuba. This could happen if the Spanish admiralty wasn't as static as it was, specially due to Cervera's lack of decision (like trapping his own fleet in Cuba without actually setting up the trap, with mines or cannons, either would have forced the USN to stay at a reasonable distance but still exposed to coastal artillery and raids from other fleets). It has also been stated previously that US coastal defences were minimal and almost unusable, any Spanish attacks could have razed their shipyards to the ground, heavily limiting their cappabilities to build more ships, thus giving Spain more and more advantage as time goes by.

 

[Chris Triangle]

IMPORTANT UPDATE: CHANGES TO THE TIMELINE​

I warned you those dates were tentative. I’m pushing the accident and the bombing back along with the whole timeline. I need to give the two parties a chance to make an investigation into the incident but I don't want the war to drag too far into hurricane season. The US didn’t declare war IOTL without an investigation and I'm fairly sure that they wouldn’t declare it TTL either. The investigation goes forward and releases its findings in late June. You can see how it went down in the retconned post. For a TLDR, more detail in Spoiler:

Spoiler

The first ship that explodes will also be changed because the new timetable removes the hurricane, so it never stops in the USA. The ship is no longer the protected cruiser, but is instead a new Spanish Destroyer on tour somewhere in the US with Villamil, who is visiting to demonstrate the vessel. Carles V is there too. In fact, OTL, IIRC when the Maine exploded Vizcaya was visiting New York. Lepanto is possibly in the Philippines. The new accident is possibly from a faulty torpedo and it happens on May 13th. The Massachusetts bombing/sinking is now June 3rd and it IS raised and investigated, but the design of these ships, specifically the odd placement of fuel bunkers, tells me that the damage from a hit like this is going to be worse than I had anticipated so she won’t see combat again. The actual war is declared on July 1st, the fleet, leaves August 12 and it arrives August 27th. This is a slightly accelerated version of the OTL sequence but both countries are going in with a bigger chip on their respective shoulders.

With that out of the way, here's the next update.

Opening Moves: The Race to The Caribbean​

Prime Minister Antonio Canovas del Castillo was confident in his country’s ability to wage war. Most of the country felt confident as well. Spanish politicians dismissed the Americans as a rabble of enthusiastic fools, accustomed to comfortable, peaceful life, made up of too many immigrants and likely to crumble when faced with real combat against battle-hardened Spaniards. The minister of the navy Sigismundo Bermejo, boasted of its superiority even though, in reality, most of the navy was well aware of its severe limitations and made them explicitly clear. Admiral Pascual Cervera y Topete, the commander of the fleet in Cadiz, was notoriously pessimistic. This was to the point that he had come to annoy some of his colleagues. He had made several proposals for remaining in home waters in anticipation of an American attack on the Canary islands and on Spain’s own weakly defended coasts. The argument had its supporters within the Navy but the rest of the government wouldn't buy it. Indeed, though this plan was probably the safest, its unpopularity within the government and the navy was completely understandable. From a purely military standpoint, the Spanish command was now increasingly confident that the USA’s current plans did not include provisions for an attack on Spain itself until the war in Cuba had been won. At that point, there would be no reason to continue fighting. Some also argued that even if Cervera’s plan went perfectly and the Spanish made perfect use of some of their innovative new weapons, the chances of winning an open engagement home weren’t much bigger than in Cuba. But the best arguments against remaining at home were political and psychological. The Spanish forces in Cuba would surely suffer a collapse in morale if they were to be informed that there was no rescue squadron forthcoming. The stakes were as high in Europe. If the country lost this war without so much as attempting to defend the colonies, there was no guarantee that civil order could be maintained at home. After all, what would the government say if it let the Yankees overrun the colonies and then let them charge into the home country's waters as well? It would make Spain appear not merely weak and irrelevant but cowardly as well. This could not be tolerated; the Spaniard of 1898 would readily admit that his country had fallen behind in the 19th century but he would never allow it to fall further without a fight. This was the hour of redemption yet it was also the hour of the quixotic last stand, for Spain's most famous literary figure was also a good metaphor for the nation's mindset that summer.

By the time of the Massachusetts incident, it had already been decided that a large squadron would sail at a moments notice, most likely from Cape Verde, as this was the most proximate place to both the Caribbean and the Spanish supply lines. From there, it could move onward to San Juan Puerto Rico within no more 14 to 15 days. The ships would sail under Cervera, who dutifully agreed despite his statements othewrwise. In fact, Cervera's pessimism is probably exaggerated; he was the man most responsible for setting the country's rotting navy on the course to becoming a reasonably functional fighting force. He was thorough, methodical and organized in a way that defied the American expectations of the Spanish navy, which they wrongly assumed would be lead by incompetent dinosaurs.

The US navy's battleship-heavy fleet greatly overshadowed this squadron. It's strength, armor and technology were the epitome of America, a land with seemingly limitless resources. The battleships, if massed together in even a moderate force, could easily demolish the entire Spanish navy in a head one fight. Nevertheless, the Spanish squadron was actually quite formidable as it was and its large force of similarly fast and potent protected cruisers would earn admiration from Alfred Mahan in his 1899 assessment of the conflict. This Spanish squadron boasted an impressive 7 modern armored cruisers: Carlos V, Cristobol Colon, Vizcaya, Almirante Oquendo, Vizcaya, Princesa de Asturias, and Cardenal Cisneros. Trailing them was the aging but still powerful battleship Pelayo. This unique, French-built ship just barely had the range to reach the Antilles but whose armor and firepower theoretically gave even some of the American battleships a run for their money and inspired considerable concern amongst the American forces as they awaited its arrival.

An additional force of 4 destroyers and a number of torpedo boats accompanied the fleet as well, among the best such forces in the world as well as 12 auxiliary cruisers and a number of colliers, the Spanish having experimented with seagoing resupply techniques years before anyone else (this innovation is often overlooked in naval history). The destroyer contingent was led by the legendary Admiral Fernando Villaamil, the pioneer of the torpedo Boat destroyers, expert in torpedo boat warfare and undoubtedly the most fascinating and charismatic Spanish military commander of the entire war. His tragic experience in New York, where an accident could have taken his like, did not shake his faith in the new vessels and indeed is force was to do the unthinkable: return to New York City and attack it. Doing so would divert disproportionate American attention away so far from the Caribbean that it might break the Blockade. Though it seems difficult to believe in this day and age, the American defenses of the time were terribly weak and outdated in a time when technology moved at its fastest. The torpedo boats were diminutive compared to their enemies but they were so fast that it was believed that the ships could make their raid and use their tremendous speed advantage to escape the slower, heavily armored American ships. It's role would be minor in actual impact but significant in its legacy.

In Cuba itself, a small force of gunboats remained at anchorage in Havana, Cienfuegos and Santiago, where they waited in anticipation of the blockade. These ships were in poor condition for the most part yet managed to make a nuisance of themselves throughout the war. A single Peral type submarine was also stationed in Havana, one of 3 such vessels in the navy and the only one overseas. They were built against great odds and considerable opposition but represented an impressive leap in technology. The submarine was equipped with electric propulsion as well as a gasoline engine to recharge the batteries on the surface (though it generally just plugged into the shore at the docks). But all these ships were ultimately a side show and the Spanish armies in Cuba were aware that things were getting tense. The risk of hurricanes was growing considerable but this also meant that the Americans would adopt a more cautious approach, increasing the odds of evading detection. As expected, the Spanish squadron departed August 12, 1898, upon the declaration of war, and disappeared for 16 days, slowing down as they approached the Antilles, hoping to conserve coal, avoid stressing the engines, which could not easily be repaired. The also had to keep the Pelayo from falling too far behind, for she was among the slowest vessels. Cervera had full freedom to decide where he would emerge, thus, no one knew when or where he would appear, though the Americans were pretty sure it would probably be somewhere around Puerto Rico.

Astonishingly, the Americans were more conflicted as to their best strategy than were the Spanish. For several years, debates raged in the navy as to the best method of fighting Spain at sea. There were probably only three things that were unanimously agreed upon: that a victory at Sea would decide the war, that Cuba would be Blockaded from the start and that as few ships as possible should be wasted on defending America’s East Coast, even though in reality, none of those things would be entirely true. Most pressing was what to do with the flying squadron. An attack on Spain itself, it was hoped, would force Cervera to return home immediately. On the other hand, attacking Puerto Rico at the outset of Hostilities could deny the Spanish the use of that vital base. In the end, the Americans were aware that the Spanish were likely to attack the coast so the squadron would instead be sent to Hampton roads to protect the US coast. This would ultimately prove to be a controversial decision because it denied Sampson access to a larger, more potent fleet as the enemy approached. It also squandered the opportunity to attack the Spanish Coast and thereby likely force the enemy to recall most of his own fleet to defend the metropol.

At the outbreak of war, Theodore Roosevelt, though, better remembered for his participation in the battle of Santiago on land, was the secretary of the Navy under President McKinley. He, more than anyone, had been convinced of the inevitability of a war with Spain and had made many preparations and plans for just such an event, with little doubt after the incident in Havana that war would be declared immediately upon the conclusion of Sampson’s investigation; after all, even Spain admitted that the vessel had been attacked. So when the findings were released at the end of the month, the declaration of war was little more than a formality; the US had been massing its navy in Key West from almost the day of the incident. Now, the mighty US fleet, brimming with battleships, was ready to enforce a blockade of Cuba immediately and did so in short order. The Flying squadron under Winfield Scott Schey had the USS Brooklyn, Texas and a few light cruisers offering him a good combination of speed and firepower but removing it from the Caribbean. In particular, Brooklyn might have proven a valuable asset and was one of America's few armored cruisers (the nation having focused on powerful battleships and heavy coast defense ships) that could match and exceed their Spanish counterparts.

It was of the utmost importance that the Spanish squadron be spotted as soon as possible so that it could be determined where it was going such that the navy would have a chance to bring its far superior firepower to bear. Admiral Sampson sent a large number of scouts, including Harvard and Yale, to the windward islands in anticipation of Cervera’s arrival. He left some ships guarding Key West and others in Havana as these were high value targets: if Cervera made directly for Havana, he was virtually untouchable behind its shore batteries. On the other hand, if Cervera reached the Antilles and found out that Key West, the most important naval base for the US fleet, was weakly defended, he would be sure to strike there and inflict severe damage, opening the road to potentially strike at Tampa, where the army had been assembling. Sampson would also personally oversee an attack on San Juan on August 27th, with the USS New York, the USS Iowa and the USS Indiana as well as a handful of cruisers and monitors (which had slowed him down considerably), hoping to test the forts and intercept Cervera. However, as with Manila, Santiago, Havana and Cienfuegos, the city's fortifications had been dramatically beefed up and had a variety of coast defense guns, including a handful of very large caliber Ordonez and Hontoria pieces, as well as smaller howitzers which could also reach the US ships at closer range. The harbor was also known to have been recently mined, so the Americans were wary of approaching closely and their accuracy was very poor at that range. Because of this, damage to the Spanish fortifications was minimal. Instead, the shells, fired from a great distance, would often fly into the city and a fair amount deal of damage there. In fact, civilian deaths exceeded military ones at this point and the citizens of San Juan, under the misconception that Sampson was deliberately attempting to inflict damage to the city, tended to rally around their Spanish garrison. But Sampson knew he had an opportunity to do some real damage and was concerned that he would not be able to accomplish much of anything if he continued with this excessively cautious strategy. Even as the old Castillo el Morro itself was damaged, most of the shore batteries appeared almost totally intact, almost mocking him from shore as they fired ineffectually at his ships.

Sampson, now thoroughly unimpressed with Spanish gunnery and determined to inflict some kind of substantial damage, decided that he could confidently m,ake another bombardment attempt and brought the battleships closer, hoping he could concentrate fire on the main batteries and destroy them before leaving Puerto Rico, a decision which proved to be a miscalculation. At first, it seemed to be working. Several guns went silent and the amount of enemy fire was decreasing. The USS Indiana and Iowa could shrug off most of the fire but the armored cruiser New York was more vulnerable. Determined to knock the big gun battery out so that Cervera could not hole up in the harbor, she ventured just a little too close for a vessel of its armor, probably under 1000 yards. Sampson himself had warned his own ships not to close any further and only pressed to such extreme range when the USS Detroit, in a foolish attempt at glory-seeking, disobeyed his orders and went absurdly close. It would be not the Detroit but Sampson and his flagship who would pay the price for such stupidity. On the approach, New York somehow received a direct hit from one of the big howitzers, possibly a 305mm Ordonez, near the waterline. The shell punched a gaping hole in New York's 4 inch armor and killed 6 sailors on the spot, with a dozen and a half more injured. Water poured in and a fire raged aboard the vessel but American crews managed to seal it off and keep her in good condition. Sampson moved to the Iowa as his own flagship had been badly damaged in an encounter that he expected to be an easy preemptive strike, or at the very least, a punitive engagement.

It was a fitting place to run into such a wall though. Throughout history, San Juan Puerto Rico's defenses have enjoyed a particularly illustrious reputation. In centuries past, its immense fortifications had repelled the mightiest fleets that the English and Dutch could muster. Now, even in the twilight of the Spanish empire, the old forts managed to live up to their reputation. Though with unlimited time Sampson would have reduced the guns of San Juan, unlimited time he did not have. He had hoped that his powerful battleships stood a chance of defeating Cevera on their own but his wily foe had still failed to appear. Sampson began to wonder if Cervera had turned back or run into a hurricane. It may well have been that he wasn't even headed for San Juan. After all, it was such an obvious target, for all Sampsoin knew, Cervera jhad anticipated this or was aware of his own force already. Furthermore, with his other cruisers too weak to actually handle the expected enemy and the monitors as slow as molasses, he was growing ever more concerned about whether his own squadron had the ability to handle the full Spanish force. With his own flagship seriously compromised, Sampson decided to pull off the Puerto Rico attack early; the harbor defenses were clearly too strong to justify continued bombardment and the idea of landing a force here was losing traction in the US military. The Puerto Ricans seemed to be unusually loyal to the mother country and the whole Puerto Rican Campaign was looking more and more difficult to justify as long as Cuba, the main target in this war, remained secure in enemy hands, which would continue unless the partial blockade could be made more effective. More urgently, Cervera's phantom squadron could still not be found and the US ships were already so scattered that there was a very real possibility that Cervera could concentrate his force and make it straight to Cuba, bypassing Puerto Rico entirely. Auxiliary cruisers would remain off the island to maintain the blockade, staying out of range of the guns. Though Sampson believed he had managed to knock some of the city's guns out, the Spanish regarded the defense of San Juan as a major victory, with the military in Puerto Rico wiring back (incorrectly) that they had repelled an attempted invasion.

To make matters worse, the USS Oregon, desperately needed on the other side of the continent, had made a mad dash for the Atlantic but Sampson believed that by now, it was likely to just miss the hunt for Cevera’s squadron. Had the Oregon been able to arrive just a day or two sooner, the course of the war might have been very different, that is, much shorter. It was ironic that the US had a fleet which should easily have been able to defeat Spain’s but was, in Alfred Mahan’s view, just half again too small to do so while maintaining all of its other tasks.



Next: The Pacific. Then Cervera's Arrival and the Oregon's too.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Dewey's Plan, Montojo's Defense​

Admiral George Dewey had taken his squadron to and from the Western Pacific Multiple times. The difficulties associated with this voyage were somewhat improved when the US decided to annex Hawaii earlier that year but until a Canal through the Isthmus could be constructed, Dewey was very isolated in Hong Kong. Though he would have liked more ships, he had only four cruisers, of which his flagship, Olympia, was by far the strongest. A fifth ship, the USS Monterrey, was en route to Hawaii but he did not intend to wait for it to arrive. He was confident that he had enough power to destroy his foe's fleet in Manila, which had but one decent ship, the Lepanto, and even she was not really a match for Olympia or Boston. The defenses at Manila were considerable and Dewey's main worry was that the harbor defenses would be impenetrable and that he would have to withdraw empty handed. The new coast defense guns and mines were reportedly installed but he had no way of knowing if they would be a major threat. If he could not seize Manila, the Americans were concerned that the Germans might show up and interfere with the conflict. Typhoons were another worry, as the Philippine islands were very prone to them and one such storm could cost him time coal and possibly even ships. Had he been able to get the Oregon to sail West rather than to the Atlantic, he would have had overwhelming force at his disposal and could probably have cracked even the new defenses. He did however have one secret weapon: Emilio Aguinaldo, the Philippine rebel whom the Spanish had just barely managed to defeat and who was living in exile in Hong Kong.

Aguinaldo, in exile in Hong Kong, was eager to resume command of the rebels in the islands and Dewey was all too abliged to transport him there. With some difficulty, he had arranged for the Rebel leader to land after he had reduced Manila and decapitated the Spanish forces. If this was possible, a contingent of American soldiers could follow later, probably after the monsoon season ended in October. These forces would also prevent the Germans from intervening, as the Spanish had actively courted them throughout the year. Dewey believed that they would attempt to land in Manila and declare it a neutral. Such an act should, by any reasonable definition, constitute an entry into the war on Spain's side but as dastardly and underhanded as that would be, he wouldn't be able to challenge them if they did unless his fleet could do it job. From there, the revolution would surely reignite as coals before a bellow and Aguinaldo would, hopefully, march on the Spanish with ease, but with the German threat, he hesitated to transport him until that occurred. However, barring a typhoon of the magnitude that struck this island one year ago, he believed he could at least maintain a blockade with ease, particularly if he could sink the pesky Lepanto. If Dewey failed to take the city, he could blockade it while Aguinaldo and the American soldiers could lay siege to manila, forcing Montojo's ships out so that he could destroy them. He had gone over the plan many times and was quite confident that it would succeed if executed properly, but he still worried greatly about the mines. His previous plans had been based around the assumption that Spain had too few of them and that they were too old to be in service. Montojo had just ordered a new batch of anti-ship mines. The American commander had more experience attacking shore batteries than just about any other man in the Navy but he had much less experience with mines. Nevertheless, he believed that if he could wipe out the shore batteries, he could sail past the mines by sticking carefully to the deep water channel in the harbor, then the rest of the minefield could be cleared with gunfire and fishing boats later at his leisure.

When the declaration of war did come, the British authorities informed Dewey that he had to vacate the harbor in 24 hours, which he was well prepared to do. He set course for the Philippine islands hoping that that the Spanish had neglected the islands so thoroughly that even their recent retrofits would make little difference. To make absolutely certain that this was the case, he would test the guns weaker guns at Subic bay, another good anchorage north of Manila, before deciding whether to attack Montojo outright. Dewey hoped that could take the islands quickly, he might deliver a crippling severe blow to the Spanish empire before its main squadron even met with Sampson's ships.

Montojo was much more concerned. He had at last received some of what he requested. The mines and coastal defenses had been upgraded to an extent and he had one fairly good ship, but upon hearing that the vast majority of the armada had made for the Caribbean, he believed he had little hope of relief. Montojo was an older gentleman but his experience in the navy was considerable. Having fought in Spain's relatively pointless South American wars over 30 years earlier, he realized quite acutely the dangers of being stranded far from home. But he also remembered that Dewey was in a position not unlike his own in Callao. If Dewey could be repulsed, then the Philippines might not be lost. If he could not, then the empire was finished in Asia. Knowing that his smaller vessels were useless in defense, he scattered most of the ships, save for the Reina Cristina and the Lepanto, about the archipelago, figuring that they could cause more trouble for the Americans in that way than sitting in Manila, particularly that they might harass any transports, though the state of the vessels might preclude them from doing much of anything. Hopefully at least one would make it to Guam and inform the island that the war had begun. The Americans were without a base here and they could capture that island easily at any time in the war; Spain's planned defensive upgrades had never reached that remote outpost, even though construction of a new battery should have begun by now. One bit of good news did arrive though: A telegraph from Spain informed him that the Oregon would not be making for Asia and was en route to the Caribbean, where it would replace the Massachusetts and face the main Spanish fleet. He believed that his own harbor defenses might just be able to throw Dewey's own plans off, but he also knew that they had yet to be put to the test.

Meanwhile, Kaiser Wilhelm, increasingly angered by the American actions and concerned about that country's reach, ordered his own Asiatic squadron, which far outclassed Dewey's, to shadow the Americans like vultures. This, in many ways, was more concerning to the Americans than were the Spanish. They were right to mistrust the Kaiser but other, more immediate worries would soon surface, though "surface" may be a poor choice of words.

BTW, let's get this out in the open: there was at least one typhoon in the Philippines in Autumn 1898. A storm passed near Northeast Luzon on October 1st and a ship there read about 961 mbar. This suggests low cat 3 with ~110 mph sustained winds. It is not currently intended to play any significant part in the story but I don't want to forget it's there later.

 

[G-6]

Are we looking at a Spanish/German vs USA war?

 

[Chris Triangle]

Are we looking at a Spanish/German vs USA war?

No. I normally wouldn't reveal a spoiler this bluntly but I'm going to make an exception here: the current timeline does not have Germany actually go to war with the United States. The Kaiser was quite persuaded that the risk of British intervention is far too high to justify such a war, in which case, the whole empire is lost. They also felt that a British entry was very likely to bring a French one too. That doesn't mean the Germans won't try and affect the outcome.

The US is pretty sure Germany is bluffing but the military does not know how far it will actually go, and Germany is quite happy to intimidate them while feigning good intentions. After all, the Samoa dispute with the Americans is still unresolved. The main purpose of the German fleet was always to swoop into the Philippines and land there if the Spanish lost control and the Americans could not take them. The excuse of course, was going to be that they would be some line about ensuring the security of their interests there etc... In many ways, the Germans are behaving similarly to OTL, which is to say, as obnoxiously as possible. Since the war is longer, they push America's buttons a bit longer but as soon get them to back down. For now, the Americans just have to put up with it. Playing Germany's stupid games is a waste of resources that they can't spare.

 

[G-6]

Does the German steal Philippines or why you said they were right to mistrust the Kaiser or no spoilers?

 

[Deleted member 9338]

The Germans sending a squadron of coast defense battleships the Spain or the Canaries will deter the American Navy. I mean it is only a training cruise.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Does the German steal Philippines or why you said they were right to mistrust the Kaiser or no spoilers?

They were right to mistrust the Kaiser because he really did have it out for the US and his intentions were not friendly. I can say that because that's OTL.
As for the Philippines, I will only say that they would only attempt this plan if the situation breaks down really badly or the diplomatic and military situation favors it.

The Germans sending a squadron of coast defense battleships the Spain or the Canaries will deter the American Navy. I mean it is only a training cruise.

Any attack on Spain is months away. The flying squadron is going to be quite busy elsewhere, as is the rest of the fleet. Nevertheless, Germany is probably weighing that option already though I still think that demanding the Americans not land in the Canaries would cause them to say "enough is enough, Bill" and declare war. For them to take that risk, the Americans would really need to be weakened. They want to get as much as possible without actually having to fight anyone. But hey, that's turn of the century geopolitics for you.

 

[Lord Okkirke]

Dispite there being plans( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_German_plans_for_the_invasion_of_the_United_States ) in existance by Imperial Germany for an Invasion of the CONUS (if you want to read a book about that pick 1901 by Robert Conroy it's not bad but not great either) any war between the US and Germany would have been fought mostly by their respectiv navys. Into this Play the fact that neither had any Kind of "base" in the other's Hemisphere and their Warships would have had to operate at the very edges of their respectiv operational-range (and this does not take potential Battledamage into account because of which they might have had to either surrender to the enemy or be interned by the neutral power whose port they had to go to). Any Kind of Invasion would have been more or less ludacretius as the US Amry was tiny and the German Army had to worry about the French(wanting revenge for 1871 and retakeing Elsass-Lothringen), not to mention the logistical challenge any Kind of Invasion would have posed. Their probably would have in fights in various colonies but These woul have been small scale Actions.

 

[Chris Triangle]

I want to remind everyone that the updates tend to get a few expansions after I post them so look back and you might find them more polished and with new content. BTW, I know this is very heavy on the naval warfare at the moment but I can assure you that there will be land battles as well. We're still only 2 weeks into the war after all. As always, suggestions and requests are always welcome.

 

[Lord Okkirke]

I was just reading up on what ships the US Navy had avalible in 1898 and might be found in New York. I found that USS Chicago ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Chicago_(1885) ) would be in the NY shipyard reiving a refitt.

Also found this in the Wikipedia Artikle about the Great White Fleet:
"During the Spanish–American War, this lack(of Coaling Stations) had forced Admiral George Dewey to buy a collier-load of British coal in Hong Kong before the Battle of Manila Bay to ensure his squadron would not run out of steam at sea."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_White_Fleet

 

[Chris Triangle]

I was just reading up on what ships the US Navy had avalible in 1898 and might be found in New York. I found that USS Chicago ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Chicago_(1885) ) would be in the NY shipyard reiving a refitt.

Excellent find. It is very helpful to know this stuff, because every ship matters here!

The refitted ship's new firepower is tremendous for such a ship, but her armor is feeble. She has certainly been relaunched by now but whether she can actually sail out and fight, I am not sure. I wonder what her exact condition would be at the time of the battle. If, and I say IF, Villaamil sends destroyers and Torpedo boats to the East coast, he would only risk attacking Chicago if she's at any state of readiness because of her immense firepower (the secondary and tertiary battery, rather than the primary one, are the bigger danger should the ship be able to use them). His intel should be more than adequate to assess this by the time he sets sail. If she is not ready to fight and is unable to leave anchor, then she might get torpedoed or shelled (the destroyers used only light guns because of their need to maintain speed and because heavy ones were terribly slow-firing in this era). Remember though, whatever happens, this is meant to be a diversionary move.

Interesting trivia too: According to Wikipedia, Alfred Mahan himself once commanded the Chicago.

 

[Deleted member 9338]

The USS Chicago is powerful with now four 8” guns and a powerful secondary battery but her FC was still poor and if attacked by 2 or more destroyers she would be in trouble.

Also there were a half a dozen (I believe 8) ACW monitors patrolling from Charleston to New England (half were in New England waters). I one would of bumped into the destroyers and cohort (I assume a collier) they could offer some resistance and a warning. Citizens hearing gun fire or seeing the coastal fight.

Another question, what about buying up ships in the secondary market, both sides did it?