The Dutch colonize Mexico, Central America, and South America instead of the Spanish and Portuguese.

[John Davis]

In OTL, the Dutch had short-lived colonies in the Americas. However, I’m wondering if it would have been possible for the Dutch to conquer and establish settler colonies in Mexico, Central America, and South America in the 16th century instead of the Spanish and Portuguese.

 

[pompejus]

First of all, shortlived? They still have some colonies in the America's.
Secondly, no it is impossible. The Netherlands was not yet united or still part of Spain in the 16th century.

 

[Lampiao]

If we imagine a scenario where Castille is united with Portugal AND Burgundy survives as an independent nation... it's not impossible. Portugal-Castille will probably focus on the East Indies leaving most of the Americas free to English, French and "Dutch" settlement.

 

[kernals12]

If that happened, then the Republicans would be forever complaining about SinterFrances and De Engelen values. (If my dutch translations of San Francisco and Los Angeles are incorrect, I apologize)

 

[Arkenfolm]

If it's the Dutch we know they'd rather be trading with the organised states there and instead of establishing settler colonies. Maybe eventually ending up with Mexico/Central America under their control in the manner of the Dutch East Indies. That will be the easiest place to grab since the Aztecs won't be far from imploding and the Dutch can pick up the pieces. But overall, I think there'd be too many Europeans competing for a share of the American trade for the Dutch to conquer an empire as big as the Spanish did. I could imagine a surviving Inca getting chunks of it shorn off by mutual agreement of Europeans, but there's no way the other European powers are just going to sit back and let the Dutch control the flow of Andean silver.

It will probably be better for the indigenous people overall, since you won't have a monstrously exploitative system of labour being imposed by extreme violence (although the Dutch will find a way to get what they want, and use native rulers to do so) on top of the inevitable epidemics, so you'll have a slightly less death rate. More indigenous culture will survive, and Mexico will probably speak mainly indigenous languages (Nahuatl will be the main one since the Dutch are likely to keep it as the main language). On the other hand, there will be a massive amount of wars spurred on by European encouragement and weapons trade and likely European powers fighting proxy wars using indigenous states. This is comparable to what they did in North America, but in Mesoamerica, the numbers are much greater meaning more death.

 

[Adamar]

Oh my, Dutch colonial administrators learning Nahuatl because it's more economic than teaching the locals Dutch. Then they insert themselves on the top of the sociopolitical hierarchy. Banning Catholic missionaries from entering as it threatens the social order. A reformed Nahua religion taking shape maybe? With some syncretism with Christianity added? Peranakan-style Mestizos dressing themselves like Mexica emperors? Okay maybe not.

It might be possible if the Spanish fail to conquer Mesoamerica except for a few trading posts. Spices were dope but gold was easier money. They could ally themselves with native states to kick the Spaniards out. But then again, I don't know much about this topic.

 

[Clandango]

They don't have enough people and they usually focused on trade. We should also keep in mind the reason many languages refer to the home of the Dutch as Holland. Because that is where all the ships came from. I'm not sure how much the other regions, besides perhaps Zeeland, contributed to international trade.

 

[Adamar]

They don't have enough people and they usually focused on trade. We should also keep in mind the reason many languages refer to the home of the Dutch as Holland. Because that is where all the ships came from. I'm not sure how much the other regions, besides perhaps Zeeland, contributed to international trade.

The Indies was at least as populous than Mexico. The Dutch managed to cement their rule by unfair treaties backed by mercenaries: Akan from the Gold Coast, Moluccans, Balinese, etc., and by playing native states against each other. I don't think that the Dutch population would be a problem for subjugation, settling is a different matter of course. The Dutch also started out as traders, but with growing influence they could gradually use force more and more.

 

[Clandango]

The Indies was at least as populous than Mexico. The Dutch managed to cement their rule by unfair treaties backed by mercenaries: Akan from the Gold Coast, Moluccans, Balinese, etc., and by playing native states against each other. I don't think that the Dutch population would be a problem for subjugation, settling is a different matter of course. The Dutch also started out as traders, but with growing influence they could gradually use force more and more.

How many of those areas speak Dutch? South Africa is the only place where there was real Dutch colonization rather than mercantilistic-colonialism, and even then the group was so isolated that they Afrikaans became its one language. The Portuguese and Spanish had the Azores, Canaries, and various areas in Africa to jump from. The Dutch would need to move past the mainlands of the likely hostile English, French, Spanish, Portuguese, and possibly Austrians, and only then would they be past Europe. Even if they got to the Americas, the people who left were mostly searching for merchandise. With Spain you have a massive kingdom filled with those who had just spent centuries fighting infidels (in their views) who saw an easy transition into fighting Caribs, Aztecs, Incas, etc. and we should remember that Cortez and Pizarro moved into those areas without permission from the Castilian Crown. The Dutch don't have the manpower for this sort of stuff. They tended to be somewhat flexible, and they got along with the East Asian hermit states partially through groveling. Or kowtowing and all that stuff. All I know is that eventually the Dutch were getting sick of it and thought it better to just leave Japan than to continue to bring in a fortune and be humiliated.

 

[Adamar]

None of the areas in the East Indies spoke Dutch. However, the Dutch were not above learning the local lingua franca, Malay, which helped them a lot when it comes to competing with other colonial powers.

Again, the Dutch never went into a state of total war in the Indies until the Java War in the 1820s. Before that they've used their war-chest for divide et impera. Even the greatest landgrab in the 1740s was achieved by allying themselves with the vassals of the Mataram sultanate who were less dependent on trade, and thus shared a strong anti-Chinese sentiment with the Dutch. Simply the idea that the Sultan was going to side with the Chinese rebels against the VOC was enough to mobilize the Duke of Madura's large retinue to invade and cause havoc in the pro-Chinese coastal duchies where most of the Sultan's manpower and income were concentrated. To be clear, the VOC was losing before they made an alliance with the Madurese, partially because the Governor General was going insane. When the dust cleared though, Java wasn't ready for a second round. Then they tricked the Madurese (who were descending to a state of infighting as well) into signing a treaty very favorable to the Dutch.

This was the MO of the Dutch all over the Indies. Supporting pretenders and rebels, tipping the balance between rivalling factions, using the lust for power of inexperienced native leaders, etc. European troops was also never even half of the soldiers the Dutch commanded, they had slave warriors, mercenaries, native allies and later local conscripts to do their dirty work for them. When it's an even playing field, the Dutch indeed struggled, such as in South Borneo, Jambi, and of course Aceh. I would argue that the political landscape in Mexico would allow the Dutch to use a similar strategy. Integration would be gradual, just like in the East Indies, and they would never in a million years achieve a settler colony there, but why bother? Dutch dominance in trade would be achieved anyway and that was their only goal.

As for the navy, well they sure could use some jumping off points. However, the Dutch navy in its prime could take on the English any day of the week, no sweat. They won the third Anglo-Dutch wars even when they were gangbanged from all sides.

I could have missed a few factors, though. So this is all hypothetical. In any case, the Dutch in their golden age didn't need a lot of manpower, they were rich and devious enough to make up for that.

Edit: also, the PoD would need to be quite early, if other powers had cemented an effective rule, I don't think the Dutch could dislodge them. It was easy for them to kick the Portuguese out of Malacca and the Iberians out of the Moluccas, the same can't be said for the Philippines.