The Grocer and the Mad Monk
(December 1974)
Edward Heath v. Keith Joseph
The Fight for the Soul of the Conservative Party
As November 1974 went through, Edward Du Cann was finally forced into a decision. The elections for the executive of the 1922 Committee had taken place at November 7th and resulted in a huge defeat for the pro-Heath candidates and the reelection of the "Milk Street Mafia", Du Cann seeing his position signficantly bolstered in way that encouraged him to stand despite the presence of Joseph. Indeed, many were sensing blood after the 1922 Committee elections, and speculation on Heath's future continued to grow as it seemed clearer that he didn't have a firm grasp on the party. Du Cann therefore agonized through early December as the situation of his firm continued to generate negative press, until finally reaching his decision. The 1922 Committee Chairman opted not to enter the contest shortly before the end of the deadline in early December, remaining publicly neutral as his role demanded but pulling all strings in favor of Keith Joseph’s campaign in private. Indeed, Du Cann had not wasted time and had negotiated with Airey Neave [1], putting the Milk Street Mafia and the backbench machine of Du Cann behind Joseph in return for the hefty prize of the Deputy Leadership. As the newspapers noted, the contest was on, and the right of the party would be represented by a heavy-weight in a way that only upped the stakes of the leadership race.
On the “Mad Monk” side, it seemed as if momentum was swinging towards his side. Whereas his monetarist and at times hard-right platform was distrusted by many on the party, Joseph had an extremely competent campaign manager on Airey Neave, who tirelessly targeted MP after MP on the mindset that every vote counted to deny Heath a majority and potentially knock him out on the second to third ballot. Even more, Neave was beyond determined to see the end of Heath, giving him an almost fanatical drive to oust the beleaguered leader [2] along with MP's such as Nigel Fisher, key member of the Milk Street Mafia. Joseph was also aided by fellow Shadow Cabinet minister Margaret Thatcher, whom many saw a Shadow Chancellor material should Joseph emerge triumphant. And of course, with Du Cann as the gatekeeper of the backbenches, it seemed guaranteed that Fraser would be a mere afterthought in the struggle. Even if Joseph proved divisive for the more centrist and left elements of the party, Heath’s chances didn’t seem particularly good. On one side, he did have the support of virtually the entire Shadow Cabinet – minus Thatcher and Joseph -, he still had competent supporters in Prior and Walker at the forefront of his campaign and he had the advantage of incumbency. On the other side, the loss of two elections in a single year and the awful post-election polling – placing the Conservatives nine to twelve points behind Labour [3] -, combined with Heath’s rough character, made for a complicated scenario.
With newspapers like the
Daily Express endorsing Heath on account of his tenacity and others like
The Times backing Joseph on the interest of a change in leadership, ithe possibility of a Joseph leadership appeared to be all too possible regardless of the distrust he generated on many One-Nation and left Tories who felt dissafected with Heath. Indeed, spurred by the seriousness of Joseph’s candidacy and campaign Prior and Walker recruited Heath's PPS Tim Kitson into pressing Heath to take a more active role, finally forcing Heath into relenting and lobbying with the backbenchers, even if the activity became painfully awkward at times. Even after heavyweights like Lord Carrington and Robert Carr openly endorsed and joined his campaign and Prior welcomed bright men from the Conservative Research Department such as William Waldegrave the situation looked dangerous indeed with
Private Eye was mocking “the Grocer’s last stand." Alas, despite the loathing Heath had come to inspire on quite a few of his own backbenchers, he remained more or less popular with the rank-and-file of the party. Indeed, a poll by
The Express showed that despite the February and October election defeats 58% of Tory voters actually wanted Heath to remain as leader [4]. It’s been speculated that this poll was a factor in motivating Joseph to make the move that would ultimately shape the rest of his career. Having already done a few of policy speeches to drum up support and media attention, he tried one of the speeches he’d dropped back in October for future use in the leadership race, one in which he had added quite a few last-minute changes. To the surprise and then shock of the audience at the Edgbaston Conservative Association in Birmingham, Joseph began on a high note on a spirited promotion of a new and bold social policy, only to flunder as he appeared to imply support for birth control for the working class [5].
It was not the case, of course, but with the first ballot due in a couple of days as frantic maneuvering took place behind the scenes, both the press and the more outspoken allies of Heath had a field day. Despite Neave imploring Joseph to act more assertively and refrain from any sort of panic, his profuse apologies was soon all over the radio, television and newspapers of the country [6]. Some went as far as describing him as nothing but a “mad eugenicist”, and the
Evening Standard had great fun with a SIR KEITH IN "STOP BABIES" SENSATION headline. Heath, unsurprisingly, offered a characteristic remark: “
Keith’s a good man fallen amongst monetarists, although he’s been robbed of all his judgement. Not that he ever had much in the first place.” Despite Heath’s unwavering belief that the contest was barely necessary and that his victory was a foregone conclusion, some of his supporters - particularly those with a firmer grasp on the arithmetic’s of the party – gave a visible sigh of relief as they saw the chaos unfolding on the other side. Joseph ended up committed further political suicide when an interview of his by Polly Toynbee was published in
Private Eye, in which Joseph not only had claimed Britain was doomed and in need of a new prophet, but at one point had out of nowhere stated: "The country needs more lavatories. I'm in favour of lavatories. Very much in favour of them." [7] To Heath's delight, what could have been taken as a joke or as simple eccentricities made for downright awful optics.
With Joseph looking positively rattled about his abrupt turn of fortunes, Thatcher, Neave and Du Cann barely had time to defend Joseph before realizing hours before the vote that his support was collapsing. With the rules not having been changed before the contest due to Heath’s pre-emptive announcement, Du Cann was painfully aware that abstentions, while potentially embarrassing for Heath, would not be considered in the margin of victory. It was too late to make changes to the first ballot already, meaning that the best they could hope for now was to keep Joseph strong enough to keep Heath from attaining that 15% margin, giving them another shot. Du Cann, angered at Joseph for having placed himself in such a vulnerable situation days before the vote, was determined to stand at a second ballot regardless of the mounting trouble on his firm [8]. It proved a complex objective to reach. Not only because many MP’s were deserting the cause to enter the arms of Frazer or going as far as to back their old boss in protest for what they saw as a candidate unable to lead the party, but because Fraser’s now stronger position meant the anti-Heath vote was seriously divided, instead of the disdain in which many had looked at his small challenge at the leadership. The dreams were being shattered. Du Cann would still be 1922 Chairman regardless of the result, but his actions on the last few weeks had probably burned any bridges Heath may have been interested in keeping. And as for Thatcher, Neave and Joseph, all with a rather large set of ambitions themselves it didn’t look bright either. And yet they soldiered on, encouraged at the last few hours for an estimate of votes which still placed Joseph on a fighting chance at delaying the contest into a second ballot.
On December 21st 1974 Heath allowed himself the pleasure to go in person with a shark-wide grin to watch a shaky Edward Du Cann give the official results:
Conservative Leadership Election, 1974:
Edward Heath: 162 (65%)
Keith Joseph: 57 (22%)
Hugh Fraser: 31 (13%)
Abstentions: 27 (Not counted on the main results)
And it was Du Cann who also had to utter: “
And therefore, Mr. Edward Heath is reelected as Leader of the Conservative Party… on the first ballot.” While over 100 MP’s had supported Fraser, Joseph or abstained, it was considered somewhat of a triumph for Heath after the dangerous position in which he’d looked, and one that he took as a vindication of his leadership despite the circumstances of Joseph’s collapse. Even worse, the right wing of the party as a whole was perceived to have lost the battle, as Joseph, aside from being seen as the most heavy-weight champion the anti-Heath side would have been able to stand, had stood on a very ideological platform which would have signaled a major shift from Heath’s policies and style. But with the party now looking divided and the December polling placing Labour at a 14 lead, Prior, Gilmour, Whitelaw and others pressured Heath to take a more conciliatory stance after his victory at the contest. After an acceptance speech in which he asked the Conservatives to unite behind his leadership in the expectation of a soon to come General Election [9]. On December 22nd, the day after the first ballot, Heath left a social gathering in Broadstairs, Kent a bit earlier than intended, having to ponder on some final decisions regarding his Shadow Cabinet and what exactly to do regarding Thatcher, Joseph and the rebels, and whether to promote some of the MP’s that had remained loyal – although at the moment Heath wasn’t aware of surprise supporters such as such as Geoffrey Howe, who’d voted for Heath instead of Joseph [10]. While Heath stood on his office working on the reshuffle a Cortina car got through the police bodyguard, a man emerging through the vehicle with a bomb on his hand. Muttering under his breath he threw it with all his forces, the bomb exploding after hitting the front door as glass was shattered and Heath’s studio was in flames. A patrol car took the pursuit of the Cortina as the remaining bodyguards stormed into the house, fearing for the worst.
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[1] Neave was prepared to run the Du Cann campaign after Joseph’s efforts collapsed in OTL, and both men are absolutely determined to see Heath off.
[2] Whereas Du Cann’s motivation was ambition, it seems Neave never forgave Heath for telling him his career was basically over when he had a heart attack years ago. To the point in which when he led the Thatcher campaign any mentioned that for him the leadership contest was more than personal.
[3] No reason for polls to change. Two November polls gave a 46% to 35% and a 47 to 38%, which remains the same here. This gives credence to the anti-Heath side during the contest that Heath was essentially an electoral liability.
[4] There was a poll putting him on 54% IOTL, although I couldn’t find the source. I attributed it to the Express as it was the most pro-Heath of the newspapers, and considering the negative reaction Joseph would have garnered from some sectors of the party butterflies give a better result to Heath.
[5] He was spared from making this speech earlier, but I’d think Joseph would say this anyway. And being right in the middle of the leadership race with all the media attentive, I’d say the effect would be pretty ugly...
[6] Which like in OTL looks like an admission of guilt, making things worse for Joseph.
[7] Yes, that is OTL. The man did say that indeed.
[8] I did toy with Du Cann standing first, but for the story I intend to tell it works a lot better if he retains his reputation while Joseph goes down in flames. Of course, Du Cann’s expectations of a second ballot end up being optimistic…
[9] He hasn’t lost the hope on Wilson’s majority collapsing soon, although time will tell on that front.
[10] I was originally surprised at reading that Howe had voted for Heath, but I think that on account of Joseph’s style and his comments he’d back Heath as well on this one.