The Duel Goes On: a Heath-Wilson TL

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Prologue:

From 1965 to 1975 Harold Wilson and Ted Heath were at the forefront of British Politics, each of them leading their respective parties in an unyielding rivalry that recalled the days of Gladstone and Disraeli. Both men represented modernization and meritocracy at the wake of their tenures, and succeeded each other on and on again on Downing Street in a duel that involved four different general elections, countless rounds of PMQ’s and a never ending set of events that put one man ahead only to be overcome by the other.

Wilson, for example, bested Heath in three out of four elections (although Heath won the popular vote in one of those), was Prime Minister for almost eight years and led the Labour Party for thirteen. The pragmatic one of the duet, Wilson succeeded in keeping the Labour Party together through turbulent times, although his legacy as Prime Minister isn’t quite as good as he might have expected. Indeed, it would seem a lot of attention has been drawn towards spies, plots… and a particular Viceroy.

Heath, on the other hand, seems forgotten or at times even reviled. Despite being Prime Minister for three years, leading the Conservatives for a decade, unexpectedly winning the 1970 Election and being the Prime Minister that took the United Kingdom into Europe, he is more remembered for his decades-long sulk against Margaret Thatcher, his biggest accomplishment seemingly undone by Brexit. Even his personal integrity has been brought into question nowadays in a very dark way.

Their duel lasted long, both men leaving their key roles in a rapid succession. Heath was unexpectedly (at the time) ousted by own party and shockingly replaced with Margaret Thatcher in 1975. Wilson surprised the country by resigning on 1976, two years into his second term as Prime Minister. In politics a week can be eternity. As current and previous events show, the smallest of changes can lead to wildly different outcomes with unsuspected consequences. Indeed, the sequence of events that begins in the aftermath of the October 1974 General Election and leads into the final defeat of the Callaghan government is a dramatic one, but one that could have turned differently.

But what if… the duel between Harold Wilson and Edward Heath had actually gone on for an even longer period?​
 
Hello there!

Lumine here. Some of you may know me for In Defence of the Republic, a timeline on a successful Brutus and Cassius… which I couldn’t finish. Or for Twilight of the Valkyries, a 20 July Plot TL… which I had to suspend for quite a while due to RL pressure. I know, not the most encouraging pattern. For those of you who were interested on TotV, it will be returning. I’ve decided some of the criticism I disagreed with at first was actually rather accurate, and as a result some aspects are getting rewritten to end up on a somewhat different outcome.

In the meantime…

I’ve acquired a keen interest on British Politics ever since last year, and while many characters and events have drawn my attention, few have done it quite so much as the political rivalry between Edward Heath and Harold Wilson. After all, both men fought each other for over a decade and an unprecedented four different general elections. Both were similar and wildly different at the same time, and fascinating from a political and psychological point of view.

And while their original struggle was indeed a long one, I was struck while reading about them at how the POD’s existed to keep their rivalry running even longer. Not that both men would be leading their parties into the 90’s, but less of an abrupt departure from the stage as it was at the time, Heath unceremoniously dropped by his party despite actually growing in statute and popularity after returning to the backbenches (for a brief time anyway) and Wilson leaving on his own terms to the surprise of his cabinet and the public as a whole.

This will be a small TL with a few updates and will probably not cover a long period of time, as it’s mostly an exercise of trying to explore a scenario that could have happened. Indeed, it’s based on both Heath and Wilson take one different choice each at different points. Heath’s turning point opens the story, right after the October Election and before that fateful leadership contest. Wilson’s is to come much later on the story, but it will be just as important, if not more.

On the other hand, as someone who lives at the end of the world with limited resources for research, I’m bound to make mistakes. So please let me know if I’ve made one, or if I may have misread some of the main characters on the cast I’ve chosen for this timeline.

I hope you like it!
 
Heath and the Milk Street Mafia
(Oct. to Dec. 1974)

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Hell Hath no Fury like the 1922 Backbench Committee,
particularly if Edward Du Cann is the current Chairman…

By the morning of October 11th, 1974, the results of the second general election in less than a year were beyond clear.

After what many considered an uninspiring campaign, Harold Wilson had done it again, turning his short-lived minority government into a majority one. But it was a bare one. Despite talk of the potential collapse of the Conservative vote in the marginal seats, many had held on against the tide, leaving Wilson with a three-seat majority for the second time on his electoral history. It was the fourth general election contested between Harold Wilson and Edward Heath, and considering the February result as a victory of sorts, it was the third time the Labour Prime Minister had bested his rival. Wilson, determined to finish off the man who had unexpectedly defeated him in the dramatic 1970 contest, allowed himself a sense of satisfaction.

He knew the knives just had to come out for his rival.

Heath, on the other hand, did not felt as demoralized as one would have expected him to feel. To the bewilderment of the shadow cabinet, he seemed almost proud of the vote on the marginals holding up, taking an odd pleasure in what he saw as denying Wilson a workable majority for a government. Indeed, for “The Grocer”, it was only a matter of time for Wilson’s government to collapse, and for the country to turn back into its senses and embrace the former Prime Minister once again. It did not take long for old rivalries to remember Heath that the reality was altogether different. Enter Edward Du Cann [1]. Slick, slippery, rich and aristocratic, he’d once been a promising minister rising as high as Party Chairman under Douglas-Home [2]. Alas, Du Cann had strongly supported Maudling in the 65’ contest, and earned the enmity of the new leader in return. Excluded from cabinet, yet ambitious to the extreme, Du Cann had gotten himself elected to lead the 1922 Committee in 1972. Wielding enormous influence amongst the backbenches, he was technically bound to neutrality in a leadership contest… but who could blame him for deciding to take a different road?

On October 14th Du Cann convened the Committee leadership at his home to rising media attention. They took a flair for the dramatic when they met again on the 17th on Du Cann’s firm, located on Milk Street, and made the decision to request Heath’s resignation, or at the very least formally push for a leadership contest and, just as important, to change the rules of said contest. The relevance of the meeting was however dimmed by Fleet Street, who gleefully described the group of backbenches as the Milk Street Mafia [3]. And in the meantime, Heath’s answer was a clear NO to resignation. Du Cann moved quickly to stress the idea of changing the leadership rules, and the picture became clearer. In essence, Heath had been left with two choices. Unwilling to resign, he could delay as much as he could to win time, reshuffle the shadow cabinet, wait for the 1922 Committee to renew its leadership and hopefully elect a Heathite in November so see things through… or he could call a snap leadership election. His instinct almost made him take the first route in a heartbeat [4], had it not been for the timely intervention of Jim Prior and Peter Walker. Both men had been a part of his campaign in 65’, and unlike Whitelaw (who remained always publicly loyal) had a keen interest on actually keeping Heath on his job.

Trying their best to emphasize the problem that delaying would represent, both men sat with Heath for hours pressing onto him the idea that a swift context would throw his critics into disarray, whereas a delay could only be counterproductive. And recalling the experience of Douglas-Home and his failure to secure his leadership after his defeat by Wilson, it seemed quite a prescient suggestion. Indeed, it was on the morning of October 19th that Edward Heath, after much convincing, prodding and misgivings, finally announced to the press after a meeting with Du Cann that he had resigned his leadership of the party… only to stand again on the leadership contest [5]. With nominations lasting until early December, the first ballot would be held on December 21st. On Heath’s side, Prior and Walker took over the Heath campaign once again, aided by Douglas Hurd. On the Milk Street Mafia, Du Cann brought over the big guns and began collecting support amongst the backbenchers he’d assiduously courted over the years, expecting to launch his candidacy in a few days with a few dozens of them lined up in order to show the seriousness of his candidacy. Indeed, during those few days the Heath camp was beginning to sense the seriousness of the situation as soundings showed those backbenches quite taken in by their 1922 Chairman [6].

But events would change quickly on early November. The day before William Whitelaw had announced he would not be standing – to the joy of the Heath camp -, but his announcement may have spurred one of the decisions that shaped the contest. Standing on a platform with Margaret Thatcher, Airey Neave and several known rebels of the party and key members of the monetarist wing, the “Mad Monk” himself, Shadow Home Secretary Keith Joseph, announced his intention to run for the leadership [7]. Having already launched a tirade of speeches in the last few months regarding the necessity of a change in leadership, he had no issue with delivering quite a detail platform for his bid, with Thatcher and Neave’s backing tremendously reinforcing the psychological effect of his announcement. Indeed, Joseph’s early announcement re-shifted the field. Du Cann, who quickly sensed his strategy of delay was about to backfire, was surprised further by the announcement that the flamboyant rebel Hugh Fraser [8] was also standing for the leadership. All of a sudden, two anti-Heath candidates had entered the fray, and Heath himself had pre-empted the rebel strategy to change the contest rules to make a second ballot a likelier probability. While deep down Fraser was a non-starter and Joseph was widely considered too divisive to lead the party, the numbers soon started to look bad for the 1922 Committee Chairman.. While Thatcher was a good surrogate, Neave’s almost legendary skill at organizing support was increasing the chances of Joseph exponentially, even if the newspapers hadn’t taken a very positive view of his candidacy.

While Du Cann could still enter the contest if he wished to, but he risked making it impossible to defeat Heath outright or even force him into a second ballot (in which Du Cann gambled the most). And to make matters worse, his firm was experienced serious financial difficulties already reported on by the press [9]. To think of the scrutiny… With the situation deteriorating for him thorough November as Heath, Fraser and Joseph did their own maneuvers; it was becoming more complicated to make a final decision on the matter. Indeed, it took until November for Edward Du Cann to make his decision, one that didn’t quite turn as he expected it would.

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[1] I seem to recall a TL that had Du Cann as Prime Minister in 1984 as the moment I learned about him, and I’m glad I did. Despite not having much info on the man, he seems quite interesting. And he’ll show up quite a bit on this story…

[2] Slippery to the point in which a book I read for research said than an MP had asked him about the time. And Du Cann answered: “What time do you want it to be?”

[3] OTL, and for whatever reason the term had me laughing for quite a while.

[4] Which is what he did in OTL. In November the 1922 Committee re-elected Du Cann to embarrass Heath, his reshuffle didn’t work, and he was forced into changing the rules in a way that made his victory difficult, such as including abstentions and all votes in the 15% margin of victory among Conservative MP’s.

[5] And here is the first of the two large POD’s. Here Walker and Prior step in and convince Heath to hold an early contest (which I think Heath might have eventually supported if reminded properly of what had happened to Douglas-Home and what he himself had done on that period). The differences are larger than it seems, as will become apparent later on.

[6] In OTL, it was estimated that Du Cann had between 60 to 70 pledged supporters before not standing for the leadership. It seems the Heathites were truly worried about him.

[7] It was on October 19th, I believe, that he gave that speech of his that ruined his career. In this timeline, he refrains from doing so on account of Heath’s announcement of a leadership election, thus allowing him to run.

[8] I think he’d run anyway regardless of Joseph standing. I barely know anything about Fraser, so let me know if this assumption is far-fetched.

[9] OTL too, this forced Du Cann out of the contest back then. No contest could come early enough for him to avoid this; although it’s arguable he could weather out the storm.
 
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The Grocer and the Mad Monk
(December 1974)

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Edward Heath v. Keith Joseph
The Fight for the Soul of the Conservative Party

As November 1974 went through, Edward Du Cann was finally forced into a decision. The elections for the executive of the 1922 Committee had taken place at November 7th and resulted in a huge defeat for the pro-Heath candidates and the reelection of the "Milk Street Mafia", Du Cann seeing his position signficantly bolstered in way that encouraged him to stand despite the presence of Joseph. Indeed, many were sensing blood after the 1922 Committee elections, and speculation on Heath's future continued to grow as it seemed clearer that he didn't have a firm grasp on the party. Du Cann therefore agonized through early December as the situation of his firm continued to generate negative press, until finally reaching his decision. The 1922 Committee Chairman opted not to enter the contest shortly before the end of the deadline in early December, remaining publicly neutral as his role demanded but pulling all strings in favor of Keith Joseph’s campaign in private. Indeed, Du Cann had not wasted time and had negotiated with Airey Neave [1], putting the Milk Street Mafia and the backbench machine of Du Cann behind Joseph in return for the hefty prize of the Deputy Leadership. As the newspapers noted, the contest was on, and the right of the party would be represented by a heavy-weight in a way that only upped the stakes of the leadership race.

On the “Mad Monk” side, it seemed as if momentum was swinging towards his side. Whereas his monetarist and at times hard-right platform was distrusted by many on the party, Joseph had an extremely competent campaign manager on Airey Neave, who tirelessly targeted MP after MP on the mindset that every vote counted to deny Heath a majority and potentially knock him out on the second to third ballot. Even more, Neave was beyond determined to see the end of Heath, giving him an almost fanatical drive to oust the beleaguered leader [2] along with MP's such as Nigel Fisher, key member of the Milk Street Mafia. Joseph was also aided by fellow Shadow Cabinet minister Margaret Thatcher, whom many saw a Shadow Chancellor material should Joseph emerge triumphant. And of course, with Du Cann as the gatekeeper of the backbenches, it seemed guaranteed that Fraser would be a mere afterthought in the struggle. Even if Joseph proved divisive for the more centrist and left elements of the party, Heath’s chances didn’t seem particularly good. On one side, he did have the support of virtually the entire Shadow Cabinet – minus Thatcher and Joseph -, he still had competent supporters in Prior and Walker at the forefront of his campaign and he had the advantage of incumbency. On the other side, the loss of two elections in a single year and the awful post-election polling – placing the Conservatives nine to twelve points behind Labour [3] -, combined with Heath’s rough character, made for a complicated scenario.

With newspapers like the Daily Express endorsing Heath on account of his tenacity and others like The Times backing Joseph on the interest of a change in leadership, ithe possibility of a Joseph leadership appeared to be all too possible regardless of the distrust he generated on many One-Nation and left Tories who felt dissafected with Heath. Indeed, spurred by the seriousness of Joseph’s candidacy and campaign Prior and Walker recruited Heath's PPS Tim Kitson into pressing Heath to take a more active role, finally forcing Heath into relenting and lobbying with the backbenchers, even if the activity became painfully awkward at times. Even after heavyweights like Lord Carrington and Robert Carr openly endorsed and joined his campaign and Prior welcomed bright men from the Conservative Research Department such as William Waldegrave the situation looked dangerous indeed with Private Eye was mocking “the Grocer’s last stand." Alas, despite the loathing Heath had come to inspire on quite a few of his own backbenchers, he remained more or less popular with the rank-and-file of the party. Indeed, a poll by The Express showed that despite the February and October election defeats 58% of Tory voters actually wanted Heath to remain as leader [4]. It’s been speculated that this poll was a factor in motivating Joseph to make the move that would ultimately shape the rest of his career. Having already done a few of policy speeches to drum up support and media attention, he tried one of the speeches he’d dropped back in October for future use in the leadership race, one in which he had added quite a few last-minute changes. To the surprise and then shock of the audience at the Edgbaston Conservative Association in Birmingham, Joseph began on a high note on a spirited promotion of a new and bold social policy, only to flunder as he appeared to imply support for birth control for the working class [5].

It was not the case, of course, but with the first ballot due in a couple of days as frantic maneuvering took place behind the scenes, both the press and the more outspoken allies of Heath had a field day. Despite Neave imploring Joseph to act more assertively and refrain from any sort of panic, his profuse apologies was soon all over the radio, television and newspapers of the country [6]. Some went as far as describing him as nothing but a “mad eugenicist”, and the Evening Standard had great fun with a SIR KEITH IN "STOP BABIES" SENSATION headline. Heath, unsurprisingly, offered a characteristic remark: “Keith’s a good man fallen amongst monetarists, although he’s been robbed of all his judgement. Not that he ever had much in the first place.” Despite Heath’s unwavering belief that the contest was barely necessary and that his victory was a foregone conclusion, some of his supporters - particularly those with a firmer grasp on the arithmetic’s of the party – gave a visible sigh of relief as they saw the chaos unfolding on the other side. Joseph ended up committed further political suicide when an interview of his by Polly Toynbee was published in Private Eye, in which Joseph not only had claimed Britain was doomed and in need of a new prophet, but at one point had out of nowhere stated: "The country needs more lavatories. I'm in favour of lavatories. Very much in favour of them." [7] To Heath's delight, what could have been taken as a joke or as simple eccentricities made for downright awful optics.

With Joseph looking positively rattled about his abrupt turn of fortunes, Thatcher, Neave and Du Cann barely had time to defend Joseph before realizing hours before the vote that his support was collapsing. With the rules not having been changed before the contest due to Heath’s pre-emptive announcement, Du Cann was painfully aware that abstentions, while potentially embarrassing for Heath, would not be considered in the margin of victory. It was too late to make changes to the first ballot already, meaning that the best they could hope for now was to keep Joseph strong enough to keep Heath from attaining that 15% margin, giving them another shot. Du Cann, angered at Joseph for having placed himself in such a vulnerable situation days before the vote, was determined to stand at a second ballot regardless of the mounting trouble on his firm [8]. It proved a complex objective to reach. Not only because many MP’s were deserting the cause to enter the arms of Frazer or going as far as to back their old boss in protest for what they saw as a candidate unable to lead the party, but because Fraser’s now stronger position meant the anti-Heath vote was seriously divided, instead of the disdain in which many had looked at his small challenge at the leadership. The dreams were being shattered. Du Cann would still be 1922 Chairman regardless of the result, but his actions on the last few weeks had probably burned any bridges Heath may have been interested in keeping. And as for Thatcher, Neave and Joseph, all with a rather large set of ambitions themselves it didn’t look bright either. And yet they soldiered on, encouraged at the last few hours for an estimate of votes which still placed Joseph on a fighting chance at delaying the contest into a second ballot.

On December 21st 1974 Heath allowed himself the pleasure to go in person with a shark-wide grin to watch a shaky Edward Du Cann give the official results:

Conservative Leadership Election, 1974:

Edward Heath: 162 (65%)
Keith Joseph: 57 (22%)
Hugh Fraser: 31 (13%)
Abstentions: 27 (Not counted on the main results)

And it was Du Cann who also had to utter: “And therefore, Mr. Edward Heath is reelected as Leader of the Conservative Party… on the first ballot.” While over 100 MP’s had supported Fraser, Joseph or abstained, it was considered somewhat of a triumph for Heath after the dangerous position in which he’d looked, and one that he took as a vindication of his leadership despite the circumstances of Joseph’s collapse. Even worse, the right wing of the party as a whole was perceived to have lost the battle, as Joseph, aside from being seen as the most heavy-weight champion the anti-Heath side would have been able to stand, had stood on a very ideological platform which would have signaled a major shift from Heath’s policies and style. But with the party now looking divided and the December polling placing Labour at a 14 lead, Prior, Gilmour, Whitelaw and others pressured Heath to take a more conciliatory stance after his victory at the contest. After an acceptance speech in which he asked the Conservatives to unite behind his leadership in the expectation of a soon to come General Election [9]. On December 22nd, the day after the first ballot, Heath left a social gathering in Broadstairs, Kent a bit earlier than intended, having to ponder on some final decisions regarding his Shadow Cabinet and what exactly to do regarding Thatcher, Joseph and the rebels, and whether to promote some of the MP’s that had remained loyal – although at the moment Heath wasn’t aware of surprise supporters such as such as Geoffrey Howe, who’d voted for Heath instead of Joseph [10]. While Heath stood on his office working on the reshuffle a Cortina car got through the police bodyguard, a man emerging through the vehicle with a bomb on his hand. Muttering under his breath he threw it with all his forces, the bomb exploding after hitting the front door as glass was shattered and Heath’s studio was in flames. A patrol car took the pursuit of the Cortina as the remaining bodyguards stormed into the house, fearing for the worst.

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[1] Neave was prepared to run the Du Cann campaign after Joseph’s efforts collapsed in OTL, and both men are absolutely determined to see Heath off.

[2] Whereas Du Cann’s motivation was ambition, it seems Neave never forgave Heath for telling him his career was basically over when he had a heart attack years ago. To the point in which when he led the Thatcher campaign any mentioned that for him the leadership contest was more than personal.

[3] No reason for polls to change. Two November polls gave a 46% to 35% and a 47 to 38%, which remains the same here. This gives credence to the anti-Heath side during the contest that Heath was essentially an electoral liability.

[4] There was a poll putting him on 54% IOTL, although I couldn’t find the source. I attributed it to the Express as it was the most pro-Heath of the newspapers, and considering the negative reaction Joseph would have garnered from some sectors of the party butterflies give a better result to Heath.

[5] He was spared from making this speech earlier, but I’d think Joseph would say this anyway. And being right in the middle of the leadership race with all the media attentive, I’d say the effect would be pretty ugly...

[6] Which like in OTL looks like an admission of guilt, making things worse for Joseph.

[7] Yes, that is OTL. The man did say that indeed.

[8] I did toy with Du Cann standing first, but for the story I intend to tell it works a lot better if he retains his reputation while Joseph goes down in flames. Of course, Du Cann’s expectations of a second ballot end up being optimistic…

[9] He hasn’t lost the hope on Wilson’s majority collapsing soon, although time will tell on that front.

[10] I was originally surprised at reading that Howe had voted for Heath, but I think that on account of Joseph’s style and his comments he’d back Heath as well on this one.
 
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