The Douglas Presidency

Here's a what if that I plan to turn into a timeline if it seems feasible. The idea is that the Constitutional Union (John Bell) and the Northern Democrats (Stephan A. Douglas) form a joint ticket with the former as VP and the later as the presidential candidate. The two party's aims had been very similar and what if they decided that, without a union, the Union would collapse.
 
I think it sounds great. We're definitely in for a very different civil war. I don't know too much about the politics of the Civil War, so I don't know whether a President Douglas of the Union would mean a shorter, less bloody civil war, or a longer, bloodier civil war.
 
I think it sounds great. We're definitely in for a very different civil war. I don't know too much about the politics of the Civil War, so I don't know whether a President Douglas of the Union would mean a shorter, less bloody civil war, or a longer, bloodier civil war.

It probably would have meant a delay in the war actually occurring because they would have allowed slavery to continue.
 
In a word: No:D

Although this election may end up in the House and in that case, it would be anyone's guess. Although I wouldn't be surprised if you end up with a President Breckenridge in this scenario.
 
The Southern states probably wouldn't secede. Lincoln becoming president was the one thing that pissed them off enough to do that. If Douglas were to become president, there's the potential for slavery becoming contained in the South, and eventually dying out, at least by the early 20th Century.
 
As feedback isn't bad on the plausibility of the idea I'll start on a timeline.

POD: As the nominations for the Constitutional Union's convention approaches in early May 1860 John Bell, whom most assume will take the nomination, meets with Northern Democrat candidate Stephan A. Douglas, nominated in April. Bell comes to Douglas with a proposition which he believes will 'save the union.' He urges Douglas to enter the Constitutional Union's convention seeking the nomination. Bell promises that if Douglas does so he will support him and Douglas promises him the vice-presidential spot. At the convention, after several ballots, Douglas is chosen as their candidate with Bell as his new Vice-presidential candidate.

- Later in May Douglas and Bell come forward to announce that their two parties would be entirely joining together to form the 'Democratic Union Party.' Their chances seem good.

- The election comes around with Breckenridge's Southern Democratic Party strong, as could be expected, in the South. Much of the North, though, seems a toss up between Douglas and Lincoln, who had pitted off in a senate race not to long ago. Finally the results come in and the electoral college (152 needed) stands as such:
Lincoln
- Connecticut (6)
- Illinois (11)
- Indiana (13)
- Iowa (4)
- Maine (8)
- Massachusetts (13)
- Minnesota (4)
- New Hampshire (5)
- Ohio (23)
- Pennsylvania (27)
- Rhode Island (4)
- Vermont (5)
- Wisconsin (5)
Total: 128

Douglas
- California (4)
- Kentucky (12)
- Maryland (8)
- Missouri (9)
- New Jersey (7)
- New York (35)
- Oregon (3)
- Tennessee (12)
- Virginia (15)
Total: 105

Breckenridge
- Alabama (9)
- Arkansas (4)
- Delaware (3)
- Florida (3)
- Georgia (10)
- Louisiana (6)
- Mississippi (7)
- North Carolina (10)
- South Carolina (8)
- Texas (4)
Total: 64

- The election now heads to congress, where the winner will be determined by the 36th US congress (the congress elected in 1858). The House is key to the election as they decide the president. The voting takes place on a state by state basis with 17 votes needed to win. Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Maryland, Missouri, Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon and California all back Douglas, giving him 19 votes and the presidency

- In the senate, where the democrats hold a majority already, Bell is easily elected as the Vice-President.

- On March 4th Stephan A. Douglas succeeds Buchanan and is inaugurated as the sixteenth president of the United States of America. In Congress the Republicans now control 130 of the 233 seats, giving them the slim majority. In the senate however the 68 seats are divided between 28 Republicans, Democratic Union 25, Democrats 15, keeping the Republicans out of the majority but still the largest party.

- The Republicans, in early April, present the 'Slave Future Act' which would require a nationwide referendum to be held on the issue of slavery with the victorious side becoming nationwide law. The act easily passes through the Republican controlled house and heads to the house where the Republicans need 6 senators to vote across the aisle with them to pass the act. They succeed in getting exactly that and they pass the act. Douglas, though, refuses to sign the bill and it is vetoed and soon dies in congress where it is far from being able to gain the necessary 2/3 to override the veto.

- This sets the mood for the entire term. Both sides refuse to budge on slavery and essentially refuse to debate anything else. This brings the nations politics to a fever pitch in preparation for the 1862 congressional election. In the run up to the election both the Southern Democrats and the Democratic Union drops a word out of their name, the Southern Democratic Party becoming simply the Southern Party, and the Democratic Union Party becoming the Union Party.

- In the run up to the election the Southern Party and the Union Party also declare a coalition, which they believe will bring them a majority in both houses. The Southern Party agrees to run candidates only in the congressional districts which their candidate won a majority of votes in the previous presidential election and the Union Party will run candidates everywhere else but there.

- This strategy is effective and, for the 38th congress, 149 of the 233 seats in the house and 43 of the 68 senate seats are won by the two parties combined, leaving the Republicans solidly in the minority. This begins an era of coalition rule between the Southern and Union parties which puts them in power in Washington for several years.
 
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- The Republicans, in early April, present the 'Slave Future Act' which would require a nationwide referendum to be held on the issue of slavery with the victorious side becoming nationwide law. The act easily passes through the Republican controlled house and heads to the house where the Republicans need 6 senators to vote across the aisle with them to pass the act. They succeed in getting exactly that and they pass the act. Douglas, though, refuses to sign the bill and it is vetoed and soon dies in congress where it is far from being able to gain the necessary 2/3 to override the veto.

Maybe the Radical Republicans propose a Constitutional amendment. I can't see such a bill receiving the support of most Republicans in Congress. Most Republicans were not abolitionists - only anti-slavery. Meaning, they wanted to limit the spread of slavery into the territories, but not ban it.
 
Despite this though only a sole member of the American party does so and Douglas is elected president by a vote of 121-117 out of congress.

No. If the election goes to the House, it is one state, one vote. That's 32 states with 17 needed for election.
 
Sigh. Douglas as President wouldn't stop the Civil War. You need an earlier POD. The Democrats by 1860 saw any northerner, especially Stephen Douglas, as a threat against their sovreignty. You'd need to solve the Kansas-Nebraska Debacle if you want Douglas as President without the Civil War.

As for the election, Douglas would NOT win New York. See above. The most he could expect would be Missouri, California, Kentucky, Virginia, and New Jersey. The states he already won with Bell's states. Tennessee was too southern for that nonsense.

Finally, the research in this is shoddy. Attempting a peacetime President Douglas is hard enough, but you failed to understand the workings of the House Vote and forgot to include Michigan in your calculations, making Lincoln's vote 134.

Sorry for being harsh, but this is probably my favorite period of history and I'd much rather see something interesting, innovative and new. Douglas as President in 1860 without an earlier POD is horrifically ASB.
 
I( am working on a novel in which one of the alternative histories has Lincoln being shot to death during his speech at Cooper Union in New York City in 1860, before he had actually declared his candidacy.

The Republican nomination eventually went to Salmon P. Chase, who subsequently lost the presidential election to Douglas; Douglas served as President from 1861-1868. There was no civil war, as he elected not to fight the secession of the Confederacy. Therefore, the nation became two countries, the USA and the CSA, and remained so until a reunification was negotiated by US president John F. Kennedy and CSA president Harry F. Byrd in 1962.

P2
 
Sigh. Douglas as President wouldn't stop the Civil War. You need an earlier POD. The Democrats by 1860 saw any northerner, especially Stephen Douglas, as a threat against their sovreignty. You'd need to solve the Kansas-Nebraska Debacle if you want Douglas as President without the Civil War.

As for the election, Douglas would NOT win New York. See above. The most he could expect would be Missouri, California, Kentucky, Virginia, and New Jersey. The states he already won with Bell's states. Tennessee was too southern for that nonsense.

Finally, the research in this is shoddy. Attempting a peacetime President Douglas is hard enough, but you failed to understand the workings of the House Vote and forgot to include Michigan in your calculations, making Lincoln's vote 134.

Sorry for being harsh, but this is probably my favorite period of history and I'd much rather see something interesting, innovative and new. Douglas as President in 1860 without an earlier POD is horrifically ASB.

Actually all I did for the electoral votes was combine the popular vote Lincoln and Bell received in the states they ran in. As for succession occurring anyway I disagree as Douglas would have allowed them to keep their slaves so I don't see why they would succeed.
 
Actually all I did for the electoral votes was combine the popular vote Lincoln and Bell received in the states they ran in. As for succession occurring anyway I disagree as Douglas would have allowed them to keep their slaves so I don't see why they would succeed.

Semantics first:

You mean Douglas and Bell, right?

Succession and secession are not the same thing.

Meat:

Read any website or book on the election of 1860. The theory you're running with for this entire timeline is that the Republican Party was advocating taking away the slaves of southern plantation owners in direct violation of the 5th Amendment. Lincoln himself was selected as the compromise candidate nonetheless. What the Republican Party was advocating was containment. The Republicans wanted slavery to stay in the territories and states it was already practiced in and not expand into Kansas or New Mexico.

Lincoln and the Republicans weren't taking slaves away from anybody. Not to mention South Carolina seceded in December 1860, when Lincoln was still President-Elect and Buchanan sat in the White House. It wasn't Republicans the south was afraid of, it was northerners.

Douglas was a northerner, from the same state as Lincoln (obviously). He broke with the southerners back in 1854 with the Kansas-Nebraska Bill. Using the language of Irving Stone's "They Also Ran," the nation fell in love with the Missouri Compromise of 1820, forcing territories south of the line to become slave states and territories north of the line to become free states. The south saw Douglas' Bill as an attempt to sweet talk his way into winning southern support while Kansas, Nebraska, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah all became free states to overpower the south.

Douglas as President without a POD between 1850 and 1854 will still result in a Civil War. A Bell/Douglas ticket on the other hand might work in your favor in this case. Douglas/Bell, not so much.

As far as your Bell+Douglas=2nd Place in Electoral College is concerned, uselectionatlas.org disagrees with you.
 
Sorry to double post by I found your formula extremely interesting and applied it to the electoral college calculator. New York and Oregon didn't flip. But Georgia and Louisiana did with huge turnouts too. (Blue for Lincoln, Red for Douglas, Green for Breckenridge)

genusmap.php


Lincoln: 179 (only California turned)
Breckenridge: 48 (lost Louisiana, Georgia, and Maryland)
Douglas: 76

Still, you can't negate the fact that most people voting for Bell would not vote for Bell as VP if Douglas was their Presidential candidate.
 
I don't think he could've been elected, he was far too much of a polarizing figure, even Evil...

Oh, that Douglas. ;)

More seriously, I don't think his election would prevent Civil War...things had gone well downhill by that point.
 
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