The Divine Wind does not blow

As many of us know, the Mongol Invasion of Japan in 1281 was thwarted (allegedly) by a huge typhoon that swept in and destroyed Kublai Khan's massive invasion fleet. Assuming the story is true, and that the Japanese could not have beaten back the horde had it landed (the Mongols had crushed the defenders in 1274, only to withdraw due to a communication breakdown, and the '81 force was larger and more experienced) how would history change in the absence of this one storm?
 
How would the Yuan keep control of Japan? You have to regard other examples with terrible logistics and what they did there. Overland, there's Northern Rus and South East Asia. Overseas, there's Java and (for all intents and purposes) Champa.

For starters, I highly doubt any direct rule will be imposed.
 
Then an EU3 Expansion won't have this name. :p

But on a serious note, this could mean that the Japanese can be weakened enough that they take around a century to rise to power once more.
 
I'm actually going to go the other way and see that Japan rises to power quicker and is drawn to the mainland before it did IOTL. Most likely there'd be an overlaying layer of Mongol nobles and bureaucrats, but the Nipponese Khanate would be one of the several successor states to the Mongol Empire, and most likely one of the more successful ones as well.

I'd go even further and say that Korea would be unable to throw off the Mongols as per OTL if there was a Mongol successor state on either side of them. Either they fall in line with the Yuan or with the ATL Mongol-Japanese.
 
I was wondering about this a couple of days ago, when one of my roommates was studying for an East Asian History exam. My knowledge of the era is basically nil, but a quick read of the Wikipedia article suggests that the almost miraculous failures of the two invasions had a significant effect on the Japanese national identity--it promoted the idea that the islands were safe from foreign invaders.

Anyhow, I'd bet that even a relatively short occupation would have significant consequences. The Mongols may not have been the best at long-term territorial acquisition, but they certainly had an impact on other places where their rule extended--Russia, China, the Middle East.
 
The Yuan emperor will probably end up intermarrying with a daughter of the emperor to legimitize Mongol rule over Japan.
 
Plenty of Devestation to be had. A Nippon Khanate would be short, and I would se emuch of their influence probably based in Honshu (most plains and most concentration of population so they will have to have lots of troops there) but it will bring Nippon closer to the mainland or push it into isolation earlier.
 
Could this lead to Japan centralizing earlier? I assume this "Nipponese Khanate" will be overthrown fairly quickly, but maybe it help destroy the old daimyo/shogun system. Could a native Japanese uprising create a new form of government based more on the Mongolian/Chinese model?

I may be way off track here...
 
8 deer,
don't think you're off track at all. Holding Japan probably wouldn't delay the break up of the Mongols, so a changed Japan would be the long term result, not a sustained Mongol Empire. Had Japanese feudal system broken up during the occupation, and the country had been forced to a more international standing by dealings with the outsiders...it's very possible that a more modern Nippon would emerge much sooner.
I suppose the question is, what would this "new" Japan look like, and how would its dealings with the rest of Asia work out?
Thoughts?
 
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